A history of ENSO events since A.D. 1525: implications for future climate change

Reconstructions of past climate are important for providing a historical context for evaluating the nature of 20th century climate change. Here, a number of percentile-based palaeoclimate reconstructions were used to isolate signals of both phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A total of 92 (82) El Niño (La Niña) events were reconstructed since A.D. 1525. Significantly, we introduce the most comprehensive La Niña event record compiled to date. This annual record of ENSO events can now be used for independent verification of climate model simulations, reconstructions of ENSO indices and as a chronological control for archaeologists/social scientists interested in human responses to past climate events. Although extreme ENSO events are seen throughout the 478-year ENSO reconstruction, approximately 43% of extreme and 28% of all protracted ENSO events (i.e. both El Niño and La Niña phase) occur in the 20th century. The post-1940 period alone accounts for 30% of extreme ENSO years observed since A.D. 1525. These results suggest that ENSO may operate differently under natural (pre-industrial) and anthropogenic background states. As evidence of stresses on water supply, agriculture and natural ecosystems caused by climate change strengthens, studies into how ENSO will operate under global warming should be a global research priority.     

The attenuation of acoustic-gravity waves in a slightly dissipative atmosphere

This paper is concerned with computation of the attenuation coefficient of internal acoustic-gravity waves in a slightly dissipative horizontally stratified atmosphere. Two models are generally used in deriving this attenuation coefficient. In one model, the nonlinear hydrodynamic equations are analyzed by using a Stokes expansion and the WKB solutions to the linearized perturbations are sought by using the coupled mode formulation. In the second model, the attenuation is viewed as the dissipation of pseudoenergy. We show in this paper that in a slightly dissipative atmosphere, these two models give identical results as far as computation of the attenuation coefficient is concerned, although in a highly dissipative atmosphere the results are known to be different.     

Synoptic and mesoscale study of a severe convective outbreak with the nonhydrostatic Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model

Summary ?A nonhydrostatic 4-km version of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model, with detailed microphysics included, was used to forecast the initiation, development, and structure of a tornado-producing supercell storm that occurred near Pine Lake (Alberta, Canada) on 15 July 2000. Examination of observations and comparison with conceptual models indicate that this storm is a good example of supercell storms that regularly produce summertime severe weather over Alberta. It was found that the high-resolution model was able to reproduce the early initiation of convective activity along the Rocky Mountains foothills, as well as the rapid northeastward propagation towards the Pine Lake area and the subsequent intensification into a supercell storm. The general structures of the forecasted convective system correspond well with conceptual representations of such events. Overall, this high-resolution forecast of the Pine Lake supercell storm was a significant improvement over the current operational version of the GEM model (24 km), which was not able to intensify the foothills’ convection into a supercell storm. Finally, it was found that the nonhydrostatic version of the model produces better trajectory and propagation speed of the convective system, as compared with the hydrostatic one. Received March 20, 2001; revised August 24, 2001     

A solution for simultaneous turbulent heat and vapor transfer between a water surface and the atmosphere

Interaction between sensible heat and water vapor diffusion in the lower atmosphere leads to the necessity of solving two simultaneous turbulent diffusion equations. This solution is obtained by the construction of Green's function which when incorporated in the boundary conditions produces two integral equations. These are solved by transformation into two algebraic equations by means of the Laplace Transformation. The results show how for a simple steady-state case, sensible heat and water vapor transfer and also the water surface temperature depend on the meteorological conditions and the rate of change of energy content of the water body. Due to advection, the water surface temperature and the turbulent fluxes vary in the downwind direction. However, for practical calculations of the mean evaporation or heat transfer, the error introduced by the use of an average temperature is usually quite small and negligible.     

沉积矿床成矿时代的地史意义

地质工作者研究矿床的意义,不仅在于认识矿床的形成与组成,不仅在于说明矿床的存在状况,还在于深入矿床的本质,指出找矿预测的途径;结合生产斗争实践,为社会主义革命和社会主义建设服务。     

A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An analytical approach to ascertain saturation‐excess versus infiltration‐excess overland flow in urban and reference landscapes

Uncontrolled overland flow drives flooding, erosion, and contaminant transport, with the severity of these outcomes often amplified in urban areas. In pervious media such as urban soils, overland flow is initiated via either infiltration‐excess (where precipitation rate exceeds infiltration capacity) or saturation‐excess (when precipitation volume exceeds soil profile storage) mechanisms. These processes call for different management strategies, making it important for municipalities to discern between them. In this study, we derived a generalized one‐dimensional model that distinguishes between infiltration‐excess overland flow (IEOF) and saturation‐excess overland flow (SEOF) using Green–Ampt infiltration concepts. Next, we applied this model to estimate overland flow generation from pervious areas in 11 U.S. cities. We used rainfall forcing that represented low‐ and high‐intensity events and compared responses among measured urban versus predevelopment reference soil hydraulic properties. The derivation showed that the propensity for IEOF versus SEOF is related to the equivalence between two nondimensional ratios: (a) precipitation rate to depth‐weighted hydraulic conductivity and (b) depth of soil profile restrictive layer to soil capillary potential. Across all cities, reference soil profiles were associated with greater IEOF for the high‐intensity set of storms, and urbanized soil profiles tended towards production of SEOF during the lower intensity set of storms. Urban soils produced more cumulative overland flow as a fraction of cumulative precipitation than did reference soils, particularly under conditions associated with SEOF. These results will assist cities in identifying the type and extent of interventions needed to manage storm water produced from pervious areas.