Fingerprinting of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in climate models to aid in the design of proxy investigations

It is desirable to design proxy investigations that target regions where properties reconstructed from calibrated parameters potentially carry high-fidelity information concerning changes in large-scale climate systems. Numerical climate models can play an important role in this task, producing simulations that can be analyzed to produce spatial “fingerprints” of the expected response of various properties under a variety of different scenarios. We will introduce a new method of fingerprinting the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) that not only provides information concerning the sensitivity of the response at a given location to changes in the large-scale system, but also quantifies the linearity, monotonicity and symmetry of the response. In this way, locations that show high sensitivities to changes in the AMOC, but that exhibit, for example, strongly nonlinear behavior can be avoided during proxy investigations. To demonstrate the proposed approach we will use the example of the response of seawater temperatures to changes in the strength of the AMOC. We present results from an earth-system climate model which has been perturbed with an idealized freshwater forcing scenario in order to reduce the strength of the AMOC in a systematic manner. The seawater temperature anomalies that result from the freshwater forcing are quantified in terms of their sensitivity to the AMOC strength in addition to the linearity and monotonicity of their response. A first-order reversal curve (FORC) approach is employed to investigate and quantify the irreversibility of the temperature response to a slowing and recovering AMOC. Thus, FORCs allow the identification of areas that are unsuitable for proxy reconstructions because their temperature versus AMOC relationship lacks symmetry.     

Modelling of Ocean Shallow Convection under Fast Ice in the Arctic

Ocean convection in the Antarctic has been studied many times and has been revealed to be responsible for ice-cover reduction. In the Arctic, proof of that phenomenon has not been documented. It is believed that this phenomenon happens on a smaller scale in the Arctic when local circulation of deep warmer water melts and slows ice production. An example of this is the North Water (NOW) polynya in northern Baffin Bay. A polynya is an area of open water in an otherwise ice-covered area. As ice forms under the fast ice near the boundary of the polynya, ocean salts (brine) are ejected from the newly formed ice. This water, which has an increased concentration of salt, sinks and is replaced by warmer water from below, and this slows ice formation. In our study a coupled one-dimensional thermodynamic snow–fast ice model incorporating ocean heat flux input via a shallow convection model was used. Ice thickness was calculated using a thermodynamic model that included a current-induced entrainment model and a convection model to account for brine rejection during ice growth. Atmospheric observations from Grise Fiord and Thule and ocean profiles around the NOW polynya near these sites were used as input to the model. This purely thermodynamic study enables us to obtain ice thickness values that can be compared with qualitative observations. This modelling study compares two sites related to the NOW polynya. The results indicate that the shallow convection model simulates the reduction of fast ice near Thule but not near Grise Fiord.     

Species richness,diversity and density of understory vegetation along disturbance gradients in the Himalayan conifer forest

We investigated whether species richness, diversity and density of understory herbaceous plants differed along logging(gap) and grazing(primarily by cattle) disturbance gradients, and sought to identify drivers of richness, diversity and density of understory vegetation of logged sites. A factorial experiment was conducted in the mixed conifer forest of Gidakom in Western Bhutan. Levels of the logging treatment included small(0.15 – 0.24 ha), medium(0.25 – 0.35 ha) and large(0.36 – 1.31 ha) gaps. The grazing treatment included grazed(primarily by cattle) and ungrazed(where herbivores were excluded by a fence) plots nested within each gap. Data were collected from 12 gaps(4 replicates at each level of logging) using the point intercept method. Shannon Weaver Diversity and Margalef's indices were used to estimate species diversity and describe species richness, respectively. Soil samples were analyzed for pH and nutrients. The interaction effect of logging and grazing was significant(p≤0.001) only on species diversity. Relative to ungrazed areas, species diversity was significantly higher(0.01≤p≤0.05) in medium grazed gaps. Under grazed conditions, soil P was negatively correlated with gap size and species diversity. While species diversity was positivelycorrelated(0.01≤p≤0.05) with soil N in grazed plots species richness was positively correlated(0.001≤p≤0.01) with soil N in ungrazed plots. Relative density of Yushania microphylla and Carex nubigena were higher under ungrazed conditions. Our study suggests that the combined effect of cattle grazing and logging results in higher species diversity of understory vegetation in medium and grazed gaps in mixed conifer forests of Bhutan,whereas increase or decrease in relative density of major species is determined primarily by the independent effects of grazing and logging. From management perspective, forest managers must refrain from creating large gaps to avoid loss of nutrients(mainly P and N), which may eventually affect tree regeneration. Managers intending to maintain understory vegetation diversity must consider the combined effects of grazing and logging, ensuring low to moderate grazing pressure.     

Detection and mapping of burnt areas from time series of MODIS-derived NDVI data in a Mediterranean region

Moderate resolution remote sensing data, as provided by MODIS, can be used to detect and map active or past wildfires from daily records of suitable combinations of reflectance bands. The objective of the present work was to develop and test simple algorithms and variations for automatic or semiautomatic detection of burnt areas from time series data of MODIS biweekly vegetation indices for a Mediterranean region. MODIS-derived NDVI 250m time series data for the Valencia region, East Spain, were subjected to a two-step process for the detection of candidate burnt areas, and the results compared with available fire event records from the Valencia Regional Government. For each pixel and date in the data series, a model was fitted to both the previous and posterior time series data. Combining drops between two consecutive points and 1-year average drops, we used discrepancies or jumps between the pre and post models to identify seed pixels, and then delimitated fire scars for each potential wildfire using an extension algorithm from the seed pixels. The resulting maps of the detected burnt areas showed a very good agreement with the perimeters registered in the database of fire records used as reference. Overall accuracies and indices of agreement were very high, and omission and commission errors were similar or lower than in previous studies that used automatic or semiautomatic fire scar detection based on remote sensing. This supports the effectiveness of the method for detecting and mapping burnt areas in the Mediterranean region.     

Effect of galvanic distortions on the series and parallel magnetotelluric impedances and comparison with other responses

The series and parallel impedances of the magnetotelluric tensor are appraised in relation to their relative immunity to galvanic electric distortions. The distorted responses are modeled using the Groom-Bailey decomposition of the tensor in terms of twist, shear, statics and strike direction. These four parameters and the undistorted responses are normally considered as unknowns, and are obtained from field data through the solution of an inverse problem. In the present work we use the decomposition as a forward model to simulate distorted sounding curves. Starting with undistorted 2-d te and tm responses, the tensor is distorted by assuming arbitrary values of twist, shear, static and strike direction. By default, both series and parallel responses are immune to the strike direction because they are invariants under rotation. In addition, series responses are immune to twist and shear and parallel responses only to twist. The dependence of the latter on shear is in the form of a real factor that shifts downwards the amplitude curves. On the other hand, the effect of statics on both series and parallel responses is more complicated than that on the impedance tensor because it cannot be accounted for by a simple shift of the curves. On the whole, there is a positive balance on the part of the series and parallel impedances over the te and tm responses because some of the distortions are filtered out by the invariants. It is shown that invariance is not sufficient to be immune to any of the distortions. The example chosen is Eggers’ eigenvalues, which are immune only to the by-the-fault strike direction. Invariance is not necessary either, as evidenced by the phase tensor, whose elements depend on strike but are immune to all distortions. The derivations are illustrated using soundings from the synthetic coprod2s1 and field-recorded coprod2 and bc87 data sets.     

Numerical Modeling of the Near‐Field Hydraulics of Water Wells

Numerical flow models can be a useful tool for dimensioning water wells and to investigate the hydraulics in their near‐field. Fully laminar flow can be assumed for all models calculated up to the screen. Therefore models can be used to predict—at least qualitatively, neglecting turbulent losses inside the well—the spatial distribution of inflow into the well and the overall hydraulic performance of different combinations of aquifer parameters and technical installations. Models for both horizontal (plan view) and vertical flow (cross section) to wells were calculated for a variety of setups. For the latter, this included variations of hydraulic conductivity of the screen, pump position, and aquifer heterogeneity. Models of suction flow control devices showed that they indeed can homogenize inflow, albeit at the cost of elevated entrance losses.     

A Road to Conflict: Stakeholder’s and Social Network Analysis of the Media Portrayals of a Social-Environmental Conflict in Bolivia

Society’s understanding of a conflict is mediated by information provided in mass media, for which researchers stress the importance of analyzing media portrays of stakeholders in a conflict. We analyze information from the Bolivian press regarding the construction of a road crossing the Isiboro-Sécure Indigenous Territory and National Park (TIPNIS). Using stakeholder’s and social network analyses, we explore stakeholder’s positions and alliances as represented in the media and contrast it with previous scholarly work. We found that some actors cited as central in scholar analyses of the conflict are largely absent in the media (e.g., private investors, conservationist sector) and that the media tend to present stakeholders as having more homogeneous positions than the academic literature does while also neglecting some important alliances in their account. The media also suggests that Indigenous communities are forging stronger alliances with urban sectors and civil society, alliances not stressed by researchers.     

Etude de la couche limite de surface sahelienne — Experience Yantala

This paper presents data concerning the energy budget in the surface layer in the Sahel region (a semi-desert area). The results are drawn from a measurement campaign made in the Niamey region in the Niger, in April–May 1984 (the Yantala Campaign). The sensible heat flux is computed with the profile method, the ground heat flux is deduced from measurement of the temperature field, and the radiative net flux is measured directly with a balancemeter. The latent heat flux, which is deduced from the energy budget balance is very weak and within the accuracy limit of the method. The diurnal variation of the net flux is symmetrical, with a maximum at noon. On the other hand, the sensible heat flux variation is asymmetrical, with an afternoon decrease much slower than the morning increase. After 3.30 pm, it becomes higher than the net flux. This is compensated for by the sign change of the ground heat flux, whose maximum is found in the morning at 11 am. The second part of this paper shows the importance of one term in the surface-layer energy budget: the long-wave radiative divergence between the ground and the top of the surface layer in high superadiabatic conditions. We show, with a radiative model on the one hand and direct measurement of the radiative divergence on the other hand, that this term reaches several tens of W m^-2 in the superadiabatic conditions found in the Sahel region.      

First comparisons of precipitable water vapor estimation using GPS and water vapor radiometers at the Royal Observatory of Belgium

We compare precipitable water vapor (PWV) time series measured by water vapor radiometers (WVRs) to PWV time series estimated using global positioning system (GPS) observations in a regional network of stations in western Europe. Inside this network, we focus on the baseline Brussels – Wettzell which presents the advantage to have the collocation of a GPS receiver and a WVR at both endpoints. The comparison between our GPS and WVR estimations of precipitable water vapor shows an agreement at the millimeter level. In addition, we show that the zenith total delay (ZTD) estimations computed with our GPS processing strategy agrees with the GPS estimations of ZTD done by the CODE analysis center at the millimeter level. Electronic Publication     

Spectrometric analyses in comparison to the physiological condition of heavy metal stressed floodplain vegetation in a standardised experiment

Floodplain ecosystems are affected by flood dynamics, nutrient supply as well as anthropogenic activities. Heavy metal pollution poses a serious environmental challenge. Pollution transfer from the soil to vegetation is still present at the central location of Elbe River, Germany. The goal of this study was to assess and separate the current heavy metal contamination of the floodplain ecosystem, using spectrometric field and laboratory measurements. A standardized pot experiment with floodplain vegetation in differently contaminated soils provided the basis for the measurements. The dominant plant types of the floodplains are: Urtica dioica, Phalaris arundinacea and Alopecurus pratensis, these were also chemically analysed. Various vegetation indices and methods were used to estimate the red edge position, to normalise the spectral curve of the vegetation and to investigate the potential of different methods for separating plant stress in floodplain vegetation. The main task was to compare spectral bands during phenological phases to find a method to detect heavy metal stress in plants. A multi-level algorithm for the curve parameterisation was developed. Chemo-analytical and ecophysiological parameters of plants were considered in the results and correlated with spectral data. The results of this study show the influence of heavy metals on the spectral characteristics of the focal plants. The developed method (depth CR1730) showed significant relationship between the plants and the contamination.