Long-term coupled behaviour of cemented paste backfill in load cell experiments

A pressure cell apparatus has been developed in this research work to study the long-term hydro-mechanical behaviour of cemented paste backfill (CPB) cured under applied stress. The samples are cured for 7, 28, 90 and 150 days and the evolution of their mechanical, hydraulic, physical and microstructural properties is studied. Also, the suction, temperature and electrical conductivity are monitored for a period of 150 days of curing. The testing and monitoring programmes are conducted in undrained conditions, with and without pressure application. The obtained results show that the curing stress affects the hydro-mechanical behaviour of CPB for up to 28 days. Within this curing period, the CPB exhibits enhanced hydro-mechanical performance. However, application of sustained excessive curing stress onto the CPB samples induces the propagation of microcracks in the backfill structure, thus causing lower mechanical strength and higher fluid permeability at the more advanced ages. Furthermore, the mineralogical and chemical compositions of the tailings (e.g., sulfidic tailings) can significantly alter the mechanical strength properties (uniaxial compressive strength and elastic modulus) and the permeability of the CPB. The evolution of coupled factors and characteristics of the CPB at an early age control and influence its long-term behaviour and performance.     

A harmonic approach to global ocean tide analysis based on TOPEX/Poseidon satellite

The constant and harmonic parts of the global ocean tide are modeled by up to nine major tidal constituents, namely, S2, M2, N2, K1, P1, O1, Mf, Mm, and Ssa. Our computations start with the Fourier sine and cosine series expansion for the tidal constituents, including the constant Mean Sea Level (MSL). Although the frequencies of the tidal constituents are considered known, the coefficients of the sine and cosine functions are assumed to be unknown. Subsequently, the coefficients of the sine and cosine functions, as well as the constant part of the Fourier expansion, were expanded into spherical harmonics up to degree and order n, where n corresponds to the number of linearly independent spherical harmonic base functions needed to model the tidal constituents, determined via independent columns of the Gram matrix. The unknown coefficients of the spherical harmonic expansions are computed using sea level observations within cycles #1–#350 of the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry over 11 years of its mission. A set of orthonormal base functions was generated for the marine areas covered by TOPEX/Poseidon observations from the spherical harmonics using a Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization process. These were used for modeling the dominant tidal constituents. The computed models based on orthonormal base functions for the nine tidal constituents and the constant part of the Fourier expansion, were tested numerically for their validity and accuracy, proving centimeter accuracy.     

Copper isotope fractionation in the Meiduk porphyry copper deposit,Northwest of Kerman Cenozoic magmatic arc,Iran

The Meiduk deposit possesses three different Cu reservoirs each with a unique Cu isotope signature. δ⁶⁵Cu for the leached cap minerals ranges from ?2.5 to +0.49‰ to ?0.45 to +0.3‰ for hypogene minerals and from +1.3 to +4.4‰ for supergene enrichment minerals. Oxidation of hypogene sulphides and effective trapping of copper (from solutions derived from the leached cap) in the supergene enrichment zone caused this relationship. A systematic pattern of low Cu isotope values close to the surface and higher isotope values with depth reveals a palaeo‐fluid pathway in the northwest–southeast direction over the deposit. Thus, the copper isotope data from leached cap and enrichment minerals can be used to monitor copper migration during supergene weathering at the Meiduk deposit.     

Monitoring and projection of climate change impact on 24-h probable maximum precipitation in the Southeast of Caspian Sea

Natural Hazards - Due to the impacts of climate change on probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and its importance in designing hydraulic structures, PMP estimation is crucial. In this study, the...     

Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran

Climatic Change - By combining long-term ground-based data on water withdrawal with climate model projections, this study quantifies the compounding effects of human activities and climate change...     

Cost–benefit analyses to assess the potential of Operational Earthquake Forecasting prior to a mainshock in Europe

In the past couple of decades, Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) has been proposed as a way of mitigating earthquake risk. In particular, it has the potential to reduce human losses (injuries and deaths) by triggering actions such as reinforcing earthquake drills and preventing access to vulnerable structures during a period of increased seismic hazard. Despite the dramatic increases in seismic hazard in the immediate period before a mainshock (of up to 1000 times has been observed), the probability of a potentially damaging earthquake occurring in the coming days or weeks remains small (generally less than 5%). Therefore, it is necessary to balance the definite cost of taking an action against the uncertain chance that it will mitigate earthquake losses. In this article, parametric cost–benefit analyses using a recent seismic hazard model for Europe and a wide range of inputs are conducted to assess when potential actions for short-term OEF are cost–beneficial prior to a severe mainshock. Ninety-six maps for various combinations of input parameters are presented. These maps show that low-cost actions (costing less than 1% of the mitigated losses) are cost–beneficial within the context of OEF for areas of moderate to high seismicity in the Mediterranean region. The actions triggered by OEF in northern areas of the continent are, however, unlikely to be cost–beneficial unless very large increases in seismicity are observed or very low-cost actions are possible.

     

Fast integer least-squares estimation for GNSS high-dimensional ambiguity resolution using lattice theory

GNSS ambiguity resolution is the key issue in the high-precision relative geodetic positioning and navigation applications. It is a problem of integer programming plus integer quality evaluation. Different integer search estimation methods have been proposed for the integer solution of ambiguity resolution. Slow rate of convergence is the main obstacle to the existing methods where tens of ambiguities are involved. Herein, integer search estimation for the GNSS ambiguity resolution based on the lattice theory is proposed. It is mathematically shown that the closest lattice point problem is the same as the integer least-squares (ILS) estimation problem and that the lattice reduction speeds up searching process. We have implemented three integer search strategies: Agrell, Eriksson, Vardy, Zeger (AEVZ), modification of Schnorr–Euchner enumeration (M-SE) and modification of Viterbo-Boutros enumeration (M-VB). The methods have been numerically implemented in several simulated examples under different scenarios and over 100 independent runs. The decorrelation process (or unimodular transformations) has been first used to transform the original ILS problem to a new one in all simulations. We have then applied different search algorithms to the transformed ILS problem. The numerical simulations have shown that AEVZ, M-SE, and M-VB are about 320, 120 and 50 times faster than LAMBDA, respectively, for a search space of dimension 40. This number could change to about 350, 160 and 60 for dimension 45. The AEVZ is shown to be faster than MLAMBDA by a factor of 5. Similar conclusions could be made using the application of the proposed algorithms to the real GPS data.     

GPS position time-series analysis based on asymptotic normality of M-estimation

The efficacy of robust M-estimators is a well-known issue when dealing with observational blunders. When the number of observations is considerably large—long time series for instance—one can take advantage of the asymptotic normality of the M-estimation and compute reasonable estimates for the unknown parameters of interest. A few leading M-estimators have been employed to identify the most likely functional model for GPS coordinate time series. This includes the simultaneous detection of periodic patterns and offsets in the GPS time series. Estimates of white noise, flicker noise, and random walk noise components are also achieved using the robust M-estimators of (co)variance components, developed in the framework of the least-squares variance component estimation (LS-VCE) theory. The method allows one to compute confidence interval for the (co)variance components in asymptotic sense. Simulated time series using white noise plus flicker noise show that the estimates of random walk noise fluctuate more than those of flicker noise for different M-estimators. This is because random walk noise is not an appropriate noise structure for the series. The same phenomenon is observed using the results of real GPS time series, which implies that the combination of white plus flicker noise is well described for GPS time series. Some of the estimated noise components of LS-VCE differ significantly from those of other M- estimators. This reveals that there are a large number of outliers in the series. This conclusion is also affirmed by performing the statistical tests, which detect (large) parts of the outliers but can also leave parts to be undetected.