Compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol in the first commitment period

This article provides an ex post analysis of the compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol during the first commitment period (2008–2012) based on the final data for national GHG emissions and exchanges in carbon units that became available at the end of 2015. On the domestic level, among the 36 countries that fully participated in the Kyoto Protocol, only nine countries emitted higher levels of GHGs than committed and therefore had to resort to flexibility mechanisms. On the international level – i.e. after the use of flexibility mechanisms – all Annex B Parties are in compliance. Countries implemented different compliance strategies: purchasing carbon units abroad, stimulating the domestic use of carbon credits by the private sector and incentivizing domestic emission reductions through climate policies.

Overall, the countries party to the Protocol surpassed their aggregate commitment by an average 2.4 GtCO₂e yr^–1. Of the possible explanations for this overachievement, ‘hot-air’ was estimated at 2.2 GtCO₂e yr^–1, while accounting rules for land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) further removed 0.4 GtCO₂e yr^–1 from the net result excluding LULUCF. The hypothetical participation of the US and Canada would have reduced this overachievement by a net 1 GtCO₂e yr^–1. None of these factors – some of which may be deemed illegitimate – would therefore on its own have led to global non-compliance, even without use of the 0.3 GtCO₂e of annual emissions reductions generated by the Clean Development Mechanism. The impact of domestic policies and ‘carbon leakage’ – neither of which is quantitatively assessed here – should not be neglected either.

Policy relevance

Given the ongoing evolution of the international climate regime and the adoption of the Paris Agreement in December 2015, we believe that there is a need to evaluate the results of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. To our knowledge there has been no overarching quantitative ex post assessment of the Kyoto Protocol based on the final emissions data for 2008–2012, which became available in late 2015. This article attempts to fill this gap, focusing on the domestic and international compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol in the first commitment period.     

Carbon and suspended sediment transport in an impounded alpine river (Isère,France)

Carbon and total suspended sediment (TSS) loads were investigated from April 2006 to March 2008 in the mountainous watershed of the Isère River, French Alps (5570 km²). The river bed has been highly impounded for hydroelectricity production during the last century. Hydraulic flushes are managed every year to prevent TSS storage within upstream dams. The Isère River has been instrumented for high‐frequency monitoring of water, TSS by turbidity and carbon (organic, inorganic, dissolved and particulate) in order to evaluate the impact of natural floods and hydraulic flushes on annual loads. Annual TSS load which was estimated between 1.3 and 2.3 MT y^?1 (i.e. 233 to 413 T km^?2 y^?1) highlighted the high erodibility of the Isère watershed. Annual carbon load was estimated between 173 10³ T y^?1 and 199 10³ T y^?1 (i.e 31 to 36 T km^?2 y^?1). About 80% of the annual carbon loads were inorganic. The impact of hydraulic flushes on annual loads appeared limited (less than 3% for annual TSS load and about 1.5% for annual carbon load), whereas the most important natural flood event contributed to 20% of the annual TSS load and 10% of the annual carbon load. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adaptation financing for projects focused on food systems through the UNFCCC

Investments in adaptation are required to reduce vulnerability and strengthen the resilience of food systems to the impacts of climate change. For low-income nations, international financing plays a central role in supporting adaptation. In this article, we document and examine adaptation projects targeting food systems financed through funding bodies of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). We find that between 2004 and 2015, 3% (n?=?96) of adaptation projects supported through the UNFCCC explicitly focused on the production, processing, distribution, preparation and/or consumption of food, with US$546 m mobilized through funding bodies directly and US$1.44bn through co-financing. Agriculture is the most common sector supported, with extreme weather events the primary climate change-related impact motivating nations to apply for adaptation financing. The majority of actions are documented to adapt the food production component of food systems, with limited focus within projects on the full range of food system vulnerability and the implications on food security.

Key policy insights

• Enhanced international adaptation financing targeting food systems is needed, and in particular financing to address limited adaptation readiness

• Supported food system projects should include holistic assessments of the entire food system in order to prioritize sector and food system component issue areas for short- and long-term efficiency

• To better analyse food system linkages and aid in the prioritization of adaptation activities, adaptation-directed funds should consider placing a higher emphasis on a cross-sectoral approach within projects

• Linkages between official development assistance and adaptation-directed funds could help optimize financing for food systems and mainstream food system adaptation efforts

     

Intellectual property rights and low carbon technology transfer: Conflicting discourses of diffusion and development

Intellectual property rights (IPRs) and the transfer of low carbon technologies to developing countries have been the focus of sustained disagreement between many developed and developing country Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). We argue that this disagreement stems from two conflicting political discourses of economic development and low carbon technology diffusion which tend to underpin developing and developed countries’ respective motivations for becoming party to the Convention. We illustrate the policy implications of these discourses by examining empirical evidence on IPRs and low carbon technology transfer and highlight how the two discourses are based on an incomplete understanding of the role of technological capacity in either economic development or technology diffusion. This has important implication for the success of post-2012 international climate agreements.     

Towards an understanding of the Of?p star HD 191612: optical spectroscopy

We present extensive optical spectroscopy of the early-type magnetic star HD 191612 (O6.5f?pe–O8fp). The Balmer and He  i lines show strongly variable emission which is highly reproducible on a well-determined 538-d period. He  ii absorptions and metal lines (including many selective emission lines but excluding He  ii λ4686 Å emission) are essentially constant in line strength, but are variable in velocity, establishing a double-lined binary orbit with   P _orb= 1542 d, e = 0.45  . We conduct a model-atmosphere analysis of the spectrum, and find that the system is consistent with a ∼O8 giant with a ∼B1 main-sequence secondary. Since the periodic 538-d changes are unrelated to orbital motion, rotational modulation of a magnetically constrained plasma is strongly favoured as the most likely underlying 'clock'. An upper limit on the equatorial rotation is consistent with this hypothesis, but is too weak to provide a strong constraint.     

Ni2SiO4-enthalphy of the olivine-spinel transition by solution calorimetry at 713°C

The high pressure spinel polymorph of Ni₂SiO₄ persists metastably at 713°C and atmospheric pressure. The enthalpy of the olivine-spinel transition was obtained by measuring the heats of solution of both polymorphs in a molten oxide solvent, 2PbO · B₂O₃, at that temperature. For Ni₂SiO₄(ol)→Ni₂SiO₄, ΔH₉₈₆⁰ = +1.4 ± 0.7kcal/mol. The heat content increments, H₉₈₆ ? H₂₉₇, were found to be: olivine, 25.73 ± 0.42kcal/mol, and spinel, 25.39 ± 0.20kcal/mol. The measured enthalpy of the transformation is consistent with the low slope of the phase boundary, ?P/?T = ～ 12b/deg, observed by Akimoto and others. The entropy of the olivine-spinel transition in Ni₂SiO₄ is accordingly about a factor of three smaller in magnitude (ΔS = ～ ?1cal/deg mol) than that for Co₂SiO₄,Fe₂SiO₄,Mg₂SiO₄or Mg₂GeO₄ (ΔS = ?3to?3.5cal/deg mol).     

Calorimetric study of high pressure polymorphism in FeTiO3: Stability of the perovskite phase

A calorimetric study of the ilmenite and lithium niobate polymorphs of FeTiO₃ was undertaken to assess the high-pressure stabilities of these phases. Ilmenite is known to be the stable phase at ambient pressure, but the lithium niobate form may be a quench phase from a perovskite form which has been previously observed in situ at high pressure.In this study, the lithium niobate phase of FeTiO₃ was synthesized from an ilmenite starting material at 15– 16 GPa and 1473 K, using a uniaxial split-sphere high-pressure apparatus (USSA 2000). The energetics of the ilmenite to lithium niobate transformation were investigated through transposed-temperature drop calorimetry. The heat of back-transformation of lithium niobate to ilmenite was measured by dropping the sample in argon from ambient conditions to a temperature where the transformation occurs spontaneously. In drops made at 977 K, an intermediate x-ray amorphous phase was encountered. At 1273 K, the transformation went to completion. A value of -13.5±1.2 kJ/mol was obtained for the heat of transformation.     

Co2+ as a chemical analogue for Fe2+ in high-temperature experiments in basaltic systems

High-temperature experiments on ferromagnesian compositions have been hampered by the rapid absorption of up to 95% of the original iron by platinum and 40% by silver-palladium capsules. Molybdenum or iron capsule materials can decrease or alleviate iron loss, but restrict oxygen fugacities to values near the iron-wustite buffer. Because Co²⁺ is stable at f_O2 =HM and because the solubility of Co in platinum in this range of f_O2 is ～0.05% at temperatures to 1350°C, its use as an analogue for Fe²⁺ is possible. In addition, experiments simulating various Fe²⁺ ratios can be easily performed by choosing appropriate Co²⁺/Fe³⁺ ratios. The cobalt phases produced possess brilliant and distinctive colors which are valuable aids in optical identification of minute phases. The cobalt analogue hypothesis was tested with atmospheric pressure experiments in air on the cobalt analogue of the 1921 Kilauea basalt at three simulated Fe²⁺/Fe³⁺ ratios. The results were compared with those of R.E.T. Hill (1969) for the natural 1921 basalt. The phase relations were the same, with the cobalt system stability fields systematically shifted by about +50°C. Microprobe analysis of olivines and the coexisting glasses indicate that the distribution of Co²⁺ between olivine and melt is independent of temperature and liquid composition. Although the analogue liquid composition differs from the equilibrium composition of the natural system, it may be corrected be employing distribution coefficients (K_D = 0.61 for the Co system; K_D = 0.33 for the Fe system) to closely approximate what the natural system would yield if iron loss did not occur.