Certified emissions reductions and CDM limits: revenue and distributional aspects

The EU allows those installations that are subject to emissions trading to use a limited volume of certified emissions reductions (CERs), generated through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), to cover their own GHG emissions. These CERs can be used in addition to the EU allowances (EUAs), which were primarily allocated free to installations in Phase II of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) from 2008 to 2012. For the year 2008, the CER limits, which are differentiated by EU Member State, created substantial arbitrage rents (due to the CER-EUA spread) of approximately EU€250 million. Different options for the allocation of this rent are discussed and it is found that, according to economic theory, making the right to use CERs tradable or the regulator pre-committing to buying CERs at the level of the relevant limit reduces the inefficiencies connected to the current regulation. Furthermore, auctioning these CER usage rights shifts the rents created through the CER-EUA spread to the Member State itself. The improved design and implementation of CDM limits justifies EU policy makers intervening to correct previously competition-distorting choices.     

SensePlace3: a geovisual framework to analyze place–time–attribute information in social media

SensePlace3 (SP3) is a geovisual analytics framework and web application that supports overview + detail analysis of social media, focusing on extracting meaningful information from the Twitterverse. SP3 leverages social media related to crisis events. It differs from most existing systems by enabling an analyst to obtain place-relevant information from tweets that have implicit as well as explicit geography. Specifically, SP3 includes not just the ability to utilize the explicit geography of geolocated tweets but also analyze implicit geography by recognizing and geolocating references in both tweet text, which indicates locations tweeted about, and in Twitter profiles, which indicates locations affiliated with users. Key features of SP3 reported here include flexible search and filtering capabilities to support information foraging; an ingest, processing, and indexing pipeline that produces near real-time access for big streaming data; and a novel strategy for implementing a web-based multi-view visual interface with dynamic linking of entities across views. The SP3 system architecture was designed to support crisis management applications, but its design flexibility makes it easily adaptable to other domains. We also report on a user study that provided input to SP3 interface design and suggests next steps for effective spatiotemporal analytics using social media sources.     

Inundation and flow properties of a runoff-generated debris flow following successive high-severity wildfires in northern Arizona,USA

Burned slopes are susceptible to runoff-generated debris flows in the years following wildfire due to reductions in vegetation cover and soil infiltration capacity. Debris flows can pose serious threats to downstream communities, so quantifying variations in flow properties along debris-flow runout paths is needed to improve both conceptual and quantitative models of debris-flow behaviour to help anticipate and mitigate the risk associated with these events. Changes in flow properties along the runout paths of the runoff-generated debris flows that follow fire may be particularly dramatic, since they initiate when a water-dominated flow rapidly entrains sediment and later transition back to a water-dominated flow once they reach greater drainage areas and lower slopes. Here, we study the properties of a debris flow that initiated 1 month following the 2022 Pipeline Fire in northern Arizona, USA. We categorized flow type into two classes, granular debris flow and muddy debris flow, along the 7-km runout path and examined how flow properties varied between the phases. Changes in channel gradient and confinement likely facilitated the transition between the flow phases, which were characterized by significant differences in maximum clast size, but similar clay content and fine fractions. We also found that the volume and runout distance of the debris flow were 28 and six times greater, respectively, than that of a debris flow that initiated in the same watershed following a fire 12 years earlier. We attribute these differences to the combined effects of two high-severity fires, suggesting that consideration of recent fire history could improve post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments. Results of this study provide quantitative constraints on changes in post-fire debris-flow properties along a runout path. Data collected in this study add to a small number of debris-flow inundation datasets that can be used to test runout models in post-fire settings.     

On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources

The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.     

Campanian Climatic Change: Isotopic Evidence from Far East, North America, North Atlantic and Western Europe

Paleoclimatic settings have been reconstructed for the Campanian using original oxygen-isotopic analyses of well-preserved molluskan and foraminifera shells from Russian Far East, Hokkaido, USA, Belgium and some DSDP holes (95, 98, 102, 390A, and 392A) in North Atlantic. Early Early Campanian climatic optimum has been recognized from data on high bottom shelf water paleotemperatures in middle latitudes of both the western circum-Pacific (to 24.2°C) and the eastern circum-Pacific (to 26.4°C) areas and high bottom shallow water paleotemperatures in high latitudes of the Koryak Upland (22.4–25.5°C), which agrees with the data on the Campanian Barykovskaya flora in high latitudes (Golovneva and Herman, 1998) and Jonker flora and its equivalents in middle latitudes. Judging from the data on comparatively high bottom shallow water paleotemperature values in high latitudes, South Alaska (19.4°C) and the Koryak Upland (22.4–25.5°C), we also expect Latest Campanian temperature maximum, which has not been confirmed, however, for low and middle latitudes by neither of isotopic nor paleobotanic data now. Main climatic tendency during the Campanian (with the exception of Latest Campanian) has been learned from isotopic composition of Campanian aragonitic ammonoid shells from the Hokkaido-South Sakhalin (Krilyon) marine basin. In contrary to Huber’s et al. (2002) assumption, we expect warm greenhouse conditions during the most part of the Campanian.     

Water temperature dynamics in High Arctic river basins

Despite the high sensitivity of polar regions to climate change and the strong influence of temperature upon ecosystem processes, contemporary understanding of water temperature dynamics in Arctic river systems is limited. This research gap was addressed by exploring high‐resolution water column thermal regimes for glacier‐fed and non‐glacial rivers at eight sites across Svalbard during the 2010 melt season. Mean water column temperatures in glacier‐fed rivers (0.3–3.2 °C) were lowest and least variable near the glacier terminus but increased downstream (0.7–2.3 °C km^–1). Non‐glacial rivers, where discharge was sourced primarily from snowmelt runoff, were warmer (mean: 2.9–5.7 °C) and more variable, indicating increased water residence times in shallow alluvial zones and increased potential for atmospheric influence. Mean summer water temperature and the magnitude of daily thermal variation were similar to those of some Alaskan Arctic rivers but low at all sites when compared with alpine glacierized environments at lower latitudes. Thermal regimes were correlated strongly (p < 0.01) with incoming short‐wave radiation, air temperature, and river discharge. Principal drivers of thermal variability were inferred to be (i) water source (i.e. glacier melt, snowmelt, groundwater); (ii) exposure time to the atmosphere; (iii) prevailing meteorological conditions; (iv) river discharge; (v) runoff interaction with permafrost and buried ice; and (vi) basin‐specific geomorphological features (e.g. channel morphology). These results provide insight into the potential changes in high‐latitude river systems in the context of projected warming in polar regions. We hypothesize that warmer and more variable temperature regimes may prevail in the future as the proportion of bulk discharge sourced from glacial meltwater declines and rivers undergo a progressive shift towards snow water and groundwater sources. Importantly, such changes could have implications for aquatic species diversity and abundance and influence rates of ecosystem functioning in high‐latitude river systems. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Single-grain zircon dating of the metamorphic and granitic rocks from the Biscayarhalvøya-Holtedahlfonna zone, north-west Spitsbergen

The Biscayarhalvøya-Holtedahlfonna zone (BHZ) in north-western Spitsbergen is a north-south trending, narrow horst, with crystalline basement rocks exposed under a Devonian unconformity. Previous K-Ar, ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar and Rb-Sr analyses have confirmed the occurrence of Caledonian thermal events, and Grenvillian ages have been obtained by conventional zircon U-Pb and single-zircon Pb evaporation methods. A total of 55 zircon grains from three samples (an augen metagranite, a micaceous schist and a granitic neosome of migmatite) have been analysed by the single-zircon Pb evaporation method. The grains with the age range of ca. 950-1100 My (million years) are the major component in all three samples, suggesting tectono-thermal activity in that period. The detrital versus resorption orgin of the rounded shapes of these grains from the granitic neosome is not clear yet. Therefore, the ages of the migmatization and of the sedimentary protoliths are not concluded. The youngest presumed detrital grain from the granitic neosome is 1060 My old. The metagranite, cutting the Richarddalen unit, yielded grains with an age of ca. 950 Mya. A granite dyke with an age range of 955-968 My cuts the Biscayarhuken unit in the northern Liefdefjorden area. These indicate the sedimentary protoliths of the Richarddalen and Biscayarhuken units are pre-Neoproterozoic. The youngest detrital zircon ages of ca. 940 My indicate Neoproterozoic sedimentary protoliths of the Solanderfjellet micaceous schists. A significant population of zircon grains with an age range of 1600-1900 My in all three samples suggests a wide exposure of these rocks in the source areas during Meso- and Neoproterozoic times. Several Archean ages have also been obtained. The results are generally conformable with those obtained from north-western Spitsbergen.     

Rift kinematics preserved in deep-time erosional landscape below the northern North Sea

Our understanding of continental rifting is, in large parts, derived from the stratigraphic record. This record is, however, incomplete as it does not often capture the geomorphic and erosional signal of rifting. New 3D seismic reflection data reveal a Late Permian-Early Triassic landscape incised into the pre-rift basement of the northern North Sea. This landscape, which covers at least 542 km², preserves a drainage system bound by two major tectonic faults. A quantitative geomorphic analysis of the drainage system reveals 68 catchments, with channel steepness and knickpoint analysis of catchment-hosted palaeo-rivers showing that the landscape preserved a >2 Myr long period of transient tectonics. We interpret that this landscape records a punctuated uplift of the footwall of a major rift-related normal fault (Vette Fault) at the onset of rifting. The landscape was preserved by a combination of relatively rapid subsidence in the hangingwall of a younger fault (Øygarden Fault) and burial by post-incision sediments. As such, we show how and why erosional landscapes are preserved in the stratigraphic record, and how they can help us understand the tectono-stratigraphic evolution of ancient continental rifts.     

Chronology and Geochemistry of the Berezitovoe Polymetallic Gold Deposit in Eastern Siberia, Russia and its Geological Significance

The Berezitovoe deposit is a large-sized Au-Ag-Zn-Pb deposit in the east of the SelengaStanovoi superterrane, Russia. Au-Ag orebodies are hosted by tourmaline-garnet-quartz-muscovite metasomatic rocks; Zn-Pb orebodies are hosted by granodiorites, porphyritic granites and tourmalinegarnet-quartz-muscovite metasomatic rocks. These orebodies are surrounded by wall rocks dominated by the Tukuringra Complex granodiorites, porphyritic granites, and gneissic granodiorites. The alteration includes silicification and garnet, sericitization chloritization, carbonatization and kaollinization. LA-ICP-MS U-Pb zircon dating indicates that the gold mineralization can be divided into two stages in the Berezitovoe polymetallic gold deposit(at 363.5 ± 1.5 Ma, and133.4± 0.5).Hornblende-plagioclase gneisses of the Mogocha Group in the study area underwent Paleoproterozoic metamorphism(at 1870 ± 7.8 and 2400 ± 13 Ma), gneissic granodiorite of the Tukuringra Complex yields a late Paleozoic magmatic age(at 379.2 ± 1.1 Ma),and subalkaline porphyritic granitoid of the Amudzhikan Complex yield late Mesozoic magmatic ages(133-139 and 150-163 Ma). Granodiorites of the Tukuringra Complex in the study area have high concentrations of SiO_2(average of 60.9 wt%), are aluminum-oversaturated(average A/CNK of 1.49), are enriched in the large ion lithophile elements(e.g.,K, Rb, and Ba), U, Th, and Pb, are depleted in high field strength elements(e.g., Ta, Nb, and Ti), and have slightly negative Eu and no Ce anomalies in chondrite-normalized rare earth element diagrams.Fluid inclusions from quartz veins include three types: aqueous two-phase, CO_2-bearing three-phase,and pure CO_2. Aqueous two-phase inclusions homogenize at 167℃-249℃ and have salinities of 4.32%-9.47% NaCl equivalent, densities of 0.86-0.95 g/cm~3, and formed at depths of 0.52-0.94 km. In comparison, the C0_2-bearing three-phase inclusions have homogenization temperatures of 265℃-346℃,salinities of 7.14%-11.57% NaCl equivalent, and total densities of 0.62-0.67 g/cm~3. The geochemical and zircon U-Pb data and the regional tectonic evolution of the study area, show that the Berezitovoe polymetallic gold deposit formed in an island arc or active continental margin setting, most probably related to late Paleozoic subduction of Okhotsk Ocean crust beneath the Siberian Plate.