Effectiveness of a market-based instrument for the allocation of water in a tropical river environment

The seasonal nature of Australia’s tropical rivers means that connected groundwater aquifers are an important source of both consumptive and non-consumptive water, particularly during the dry season. The management of these common pool groundwater resources is one of the predominant water issues facing northern Australia. A national program of water reform stipulates the expansion of water trading as a key instrument for water allocation. The effectiveness of new institutional arrangements such as water markets will be determined mostly by how well they coordinate with local environmental requirements, local institutions and local norms. This paper describes a novel application of combined field work, institutional analysis, experimental economics and agent-based modeling to the analysis of a potential water market in the Katherine region of the Northern Territory, Australia. The effectiveness of different versions of the policy instrument is assessed in light of local conditions. Instruments that enable personal relationships and local institutions and norms to play a role in water management are found to be more effective in terms of both farming income and environmental impact.     

Spatial patterns of sub-tidal seagrasses and their tissue nutrients in the Torres Strait,northern Australia: Implications for management

The distribution and nutritional profiles of sub-tidal seagrasses from the Torres Strait were surveyed and mapped across an area of 31,000 km². Benthic sediment composition, water depth, seagrass species type and nutrients were sampled at 168 points selected in a stratified representative pattern. Eleven species of seagrass were present at 56 (33.3%) of the sample points. Halophila spinulosa, Halophila ovalis, Cymodocea serrulata and Syringodium isoetifolium were the most common species and these were nutrient profiled. Sub-tidal seagrass distribution (and associated seagrass nutrient concentrations) was generally confined to northern-central and south-western regions of the survey area (<longitude 142.60), where mean water depth was relatively shallow (approximately 13 m below MSL) and where sediments were comprised primarily muddy sand to gravelly sand. Seagrass nitrogen and starch content, the most important nutrients for marine herbivores, were significantly correlated with species and with the plant component (above or below ground). For all seagrass species, the above-ground component (shoots and leaves) possessed greater nitrogen concentrations than the below-ground component (roots and rhizomes), which possessed greater starch concentrations. S. isoetifolium had the highest total nitrogen concentrations (1.40±0.05% DW). However, it also had higher fibre concentrations (38.2±0.68% DW) relative to the other four species. H. ovalis possessed the highest starch concentrations (2.76±0.12% DW) and highest digestibility (83.24±0.66% DW) as well as the lowest fibre (27.2±0.66% DW). The high relative abundance (found at 55% of the sites that had seagrass) and nutrient quality characteristics of H. ovalis make it an important source of energy to marine herbivores that forage sub-tidally in the Torres Strait. There were two regions in Torres Strait (north-central and south-western) where sub-tidal seagrass meadows were prevalent and of relatively higher nutritional value. This spatial and nutritional information can be used by local agencies to manage and to protect the ecological, economic and cultural values of the sub-tidal seagrass ecosystems and associated fisheries of the Torres Strait.     

Comparison of statistically downscaled precipitation in terms of future climate indices and daily variability for southern Ontario and Quebec,Canada

Given the coarse resolution of global climate models, downscaling techniques are often needed to generate finer scale projections of variables affected by local-scale processes such as precipitation. However, classical statistical downscaling experiments for future climate rely on the time-invariance assumption as one cannot know the true change in the variable of interest, nor validate the models with data not yet observed. Our experimental setup involves using the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) outputs as pseudo-observations to estimate model performance in the context of future climate projections by replacing historical and future observations with model simulations from the CRCM, nested within the domain of the Canadian global climate model (CGCM). In particular, we evaluated statistically downscaled daily precipitation time series in terms of the Peirce skill score, mean absolute errors, and climate indices. Specifically, we used a variety of linear and nonlinear methods such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees and ensembles, multiple linear regression, and k-nearest neighbors to generate present and future daily precipitation occurrences and amounts. We obtained the predictors from the CGCM 3.1 20C3M (1971–2000) and A2 (2041–2070) simulations, and precipitation outputs from the CRCM 4.2 (forced with the CGCM 3.1 boundary conditions) as predictands. Overall, ANN models and tree ensembles outscored the linear models and simple nonlinear models in terms of precipitation occurrences, without performance deteriorating in future climate. In contrast, for the precipitation amounts and related climate indices, the performance of downscaling models deteriorated in future climate.     

Climate change hotspots mapping: what have we learned?

In the past 5 years there has been a proliferation of efforts to map climate change “hotspots” — regions that are particularly vulnerable to current or future climate impacts, and where human security may be at risk. While some are academic exercises, many are produced with the goal of drawing policy maker attention to regions that are particularly susceptible to climate impacts, either to mitigate the risk of humanitarian crises or conflicts or to target adaptation assistance. Hotspots mapping efforts address a range of issues and sectors such as vulnerable populations, humanitarian crises, conflict, agriculture and food security, and water resources. This paper offers a timely assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of current hotspots mapping approaches with the goal of improving future efforts. It also highlights regions that are anticipated, based on combinations of high exposure, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity, to suffer significant impacts from climate change.     

北京奥运会期间气溶胶光学特性垂直分布特征

利用激光雷达观测资料,分析了奥运会期间气溶胶消光系数的垂直廓线,并结合后向轨迹方法对北京地区污染来源以及污染控制措施效果进行了初步分析。观测数据表明:1)2008年消光系数较之2007年在不同高度层的降幅并不相同,600m以下的年际降幅最为显著,1200～4000m高度范围次之。2)各类型消光系数垂直廓线出现频次的统计显示,2008年影响北京的主要廓线类型为边界层上部最高型,而非近地面最高型,说明2008年近地层消光系数有明显的降低。另外,利用后向轨迹法对近地层消光系数降低的原因进行了分析,结果表明,当近地层气团中污染物主要来自于北京周边地区时,400m以下气溶胶消光系数的年际降幅可达18.1%,这说明北京周边区域大气污染控制措施对改善北京近地面层气溶胶污染起到了重要作用。     

High-Resolution Records of the Holocene Paleoenvironmental Variation Reflected by Carbonate and Its Isotopic Compositions in Bosten Lake and Response to Glacial Activities

Abstract: The Early Holocene paleoclimate in Bosten Lake on the northern margin of the Tarim Basin, southern Xinjiang, is reconstructed through an analysis of a 953 cm long core (BSTC2000) taken from Bosten Lake. Multiple proxies of this core, including the mineral components of carbonate, carbonate content, stable isotopic compositions of carbonate, Ca/Sr, TOC and C/N and C/S of organic matter, are used to reconstruct the climatic change since 8500 a B.P. The chronology model is made by nine AMS 14C ages of leaves, seeds and organic matter contained in two parallel cores. The climate was cold and wet during 8500 to 8100 a B.P. Temperature increased from 8100 to 6400 a B.P., the climate was warm and humid, and the lake expanded. The lake level was highest during this stage. Then from 6400 to 5100 a B.P., the climate became cold and the lake level decreased slightly. During the late mid-Holocene, the climate was hot and dry from 5100 to 3100 a B.P., but there was a short cold period during 4400 to 3800 a B.P. At this temporal interval, a mass of ice and snow melting water supplied the lake at the early time and made the lake level rise. The second highest lake level stage occurred during 5200 to 3800 a B.P. The climate was cool and wet during 3100 to 2200 a B.P., when the lake expanded with decreasing evaporation. The lake had the last short-term high level during 3100 to 2800 a B.P. After this short high lake level period, the lake shrank because of the long-term lower temperature and reduced water supply. From 2200 to 1200 a B.P., the climate was hot and dry, and the lake shrank greatly. Although the temperature decreased somewhat from 1200 a B.P. to the present, the climate was warm and dry. The lake level began to rise a little again, but it did not reach the river bed altitude of the Konqi River, an outflow river of the Bosten Lake.     

Generalization of Szebehely's regions for asteroid stability

Using Hill's modified stability criterion in the three-dimensional restricted three-body problem with the Sun and Jupiter as the primaries, regions of stability for the semi-major axis (a) are determined. These regions are given for a range of eccentricity (e) and inc.l.ination (i), and include the effects of the remaining orbital elements. This generalizes Szebehely's previous results which only examined the effects of e and i on the regions of stability for the semima jor axis. It is shown that if the other orbital elements are also considered, the previous results are sharpened but are not contradicted.