Hydrological study of the potential effects of the melting of Nevado del Ruiz glacier on urban growth zones in Manizales,Colombia

ABSTRACT

This paper presents the results of a hydrological study aimed at characterizing flood-prone areas in the urban growth zone in the city of Manizales based on the potential effects of melting of the Nevado del Ruiz glacier, in Caldas, Colombia. These results constitute a basis for decision making regarding possible urban growth zones in Andean areas that face risks from volcanic eruptions producing lahars and floods caused by glacier melt. Conservative estimates of extreme flows in the Chinchiná River in the urban growth area of El Rosario can be obtained by considering the effects of rain triggered by airborne particulate material following a volcanic explosion combined with the effects of glacier melt. The effects of global warming on tropical glaciers contribute to their retreat, leading to their disappearance. Therefore, the worst scenario would take place if these events occurred in the short term as glacier volume decreases with time.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor not assigned     

The 2011 submarine volcanic eruption in El Hierro (Canary Islands)

Forty years after the Teneguía Volcano (La Palma, 1971), a submarine eruption took place off the town of La Restinga, south of El Hierro, the smallest and youngest island of the Canarian Archipelago. Precursors allowed an early detection of the event and its approximate location, suggesting it was submarine. Uncertainties derived from insufficient scientific information available to the authorities during the eruption, leading to disproportionate civil protection measures, which had an impact on the island's economy—based primarily on tourism—while residents experienced extra fear and distress.     

In Situ Determination of Au and Cu in Natural Pyrite by Near‐Infrared Femtosecond Laser Ablation‐Inductively Coupled Plasma‐Quadrupole Mass Spectrometry: No Evidence for Matrix Effects

Gold and copper concentrations were determined in natural pyrite by near‐infrared femtosecond LA‐ICP‐QMS, using both sulfide reference materials (pyrrhotite Po‐726 and in‐house natural chalcopyrite Cpy‐RM) and NIST SRM 610 as external calibrators. Firstly, using NIST SRM 610 as the external calibrator, we calculated the Au concentration in Po‐726 and the Cu concentration in Cpy‐RM. The calculated concentration averages for Au and Cu were similar to the values published for Po‐726 and Cpy‐RM, respectively. Secondly, we calculated Au and Cu concentrations taking NIST SRM 610 as an unknown sample and using Po‐726 and Cpy‐RM as external calibrators. Again, the average values obtained closely reflected the preferred concentrations for NIST SRM 610. Finally, we calculated Au and Cu concentrations in natural pyrite using sulfide and silicate reference materials as external calibrators. In both cases, calculated concentrations were very similar, independent of the external calibrator used. The aforementioned data, plus the fact that we obtained very small differences in relative sensitivity values (percentage differences are between 5% and 17% for ⁵⁷Fe, ⁶³Cu and ¹⁹⁷Au) on analyses of silicate and sulfide RMs, indicate that there were no matrix effects related to the differences in material composition. Thus, it is possible to determine Au and Cu in natural sulfides using NIST silicate glasses as an external calibrator.     

Population Structure of the SW Atlantic Estuarine Crab Neohelice granulata Throughout Its Range: a Genetic and Morphometric Study

Phylogeographic patterns of the SW Atlantic estuarine crab Neohelice granulata were examined using mitochondrial DNA cytochrome oxidase I sequences and analyzed together with morphometric data. Specimens were sampled during a 4-year period (2001?C2004) from 11 localities encompassing the full distributional range of this species along the SW Atlantic (22°57?? S to 42°25?? S). DNA sequences were obtained from 69 individuals belonging to seven localities, and morphometric variation in 12 continuous characters was analyzed for 646 crabs from ten localities. Strong genetic differentiation, consistent with a pattern of isolation-by-distance, was detected among all localities indicating that gene flow occurs mainly between neighboring populations. Analyses of molecular variance showed genetic subdivision between the southern (Argentina) and the northern (Brazil) sites, suggesting restricted gene flow at a regional scale. The genetic structure of this species could be divided into two distinct groups due to a limited gene flow between southern and northern regions as a consequence of larval dispersal patterns. Coastal currents in the vicinity of the Rio de la Plata likely act as a barrier to dispersal within the species range. Moreover, genetic data indicate that populations of N. granulata might have undergone a northward demographic expansion since the late Pleistocene. The morphometric analysis showed no geographical pattern of morphological differentiation, although there were differences among sampling sites.     

Parallel distributed computing using Python

This work presents two software components aimed to relieve the costs of accessing high-performance parallel computing resources within a Python programming environment: MPI for Python and PETSc for Python.MPI for Python is a general-purpose Python package that provides bindings for the Message Passing Interface (MPI) standard using any back-end MPI implementation. Its facilities allow parallel Python programs to easily exploit multiple processors using the message passing paradigm. PETSc for Python provides access to the Portable, Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computation (PETSc) libraries. Its facilities allow sequential and parallel Python applications to exploit state of the art algorithms and data structures readily available in PETSc for the solution of large-scale problems in science and engineering.MPI for Python and PETSc for Python are fully integrated to PETSc-FEM, an MPI and PETSc based parallel, multiphysics, finite elements code developed at CIMEC laboratory. This software infrastructure supports research activities related to simulation of fluid flows with applications ranging from the design of microfluidic devices for biochemical analysis to modeling of large-scale stream/aquifer interactions.     

Particle Filter-based assimilation algorithms for improved estimation of root-zone soil moisture under dynamic vegetation conditions

In this study, we implement Particle Filter (PF)-based assimilation algorithms to improve root-zone soil moisture (RZSM) estimates from a coupled SVAT-vegetation model during a growing season of sweet corn in North Central Florida. The results from four different PF algorithms were compared with those from the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) when near-surface soil moisture was assimilated every 3 days using both synthetic and field observations. In the synthetic case, the PF algorithm with the best performance used residual resampling of the states and obtained resampled parameters from a uniform distribution and provided reductions of 76% in root mean square error (RMSE) over the openloop estimates. The EnKF provided the RZSM and parameter estimates that were closer to the truth than the PF with an 84% reduction in RMSE. When field observations were assimilated, the PF algorithm that maintained maximum parameter diversity offered the largest reduction of 16% in root mean square difference (RMSD) over the openloop estimates. Minimal differences were observed in the overall performance of the EnKF and PF using field observations since errors in model physics affected both the filters in a similar manner, with maximum reductions in RMSD compared to the openloop during the mid and reproductive stages.     

Structural controls on Quaternary deepwater sedimentation, mud diapirism, and hydrocarbon distribution within the actively evolving Columbus foreland basin, eastern offshore Trinidad

Eastward migration of the Caribbean plate relative to the South American plate has caused lithospheric loading along the northern margin of South America, which is recorded by an 1100-km-long foreland basin which is oldest in the west (Maracaibo basin, 65-55 Ma) and youngest in the east (Columbus basin, eastern offshore Trinidad, 15-0 Ma). The Orinoco River has been the primary source of sediment for the basin since early Miocene. We have integrated approximately 775 km of deep-penetration 2D seismic lines acquired in the area of eastern offshore Trinidad as part of the 2004 “Broadband Ocean-Land Investigations of Venezuela and the Antilles arc Region” (BOLIVAR) project, 8000 km² of shallow industry 3D seismic data, and published industry well data from offshore eastern Trinidad. Active mud diapirism in the Columbus basin is widespread and is related to overthrusting and tectono-sedimentary loading of upper Miocene-lower Pliocene age mud. Analysis of the shallow 3D seismic data reveals the presence of extensive gravity-flow depositional elements on the Columbus basin slope and the deepwater area. These stacked gravity-flow deposits are characterized by mass-transport deposits at the base, turbidite frontal-splay deposits, leveed-channel deposits, and capped by fine-grained condensed-section deposits. Exploration targets in the deepwater area are located towards the center of the Columbus basin, where northeast-trending fault-propagation folds are important Plio-Pleistocene trap-forming elements. Deep basin wells drilled in recent years have proven that turbidites were transported into the deepwater Columbus basin during the Plio-Pleistocene. Analysis of these well results suggests that a deeper oil charge is present within the deepwater Columbus basin area. The primary uncertainty for this variable hydrocarbon system is whether fault or diapiric pathways connect or divert the petroleum charge at depth with shallower reservoir rocks.     

Contextual factors influencing sustainable fisheries in Mexico

Sustainable fisheries take into consideration that managed fisheries ecosystems shift over time in response to evolving environmental as well as market and political factors. These contextual forces are especially valuable in understanding developing countries such as Mexico, where the unconsolidated fisheries administration faces productive marine ecosystems but unsustainable fisheries. To recognize the issues that have inhibited the consolidation of a regulatory system for sustainable fisheries, a contextual factor analysis was applied to the co-development of two current policies in the Mexican fishery regime: fisheries and environmental policies. Six historical phases have been identified in which there are few long periods of stability and frequent short periods of radical change that alternate between stable and adverse contextual situations. These short and contrasting contextual situations cause a kind of tug-of-war in Mexican fisheries policy-making. On the one hand, domestic economic, scientific, and technological forces seem to slowly lead toward the consolidation of sustainable fisheries; on the other hand, domestic policies drift from one position to another at other timing than the international fisheries and environmental policies. Although recent crises seem to highlight new periods of radical change in Mexico, they also provide an opportunity to adopt new structural plans to consolidate domestic forces as a basis for long-term strategies.     

Spatial analysis of the impact of shrimp culture on the coastal wetlands on the Northern coast of Sinaloa, Mexico

In the Mexican coasts, as in many tropical and subtropical coastal areas, shrimp culture grew exponentially over the last three decades. This process has produced an intense debate on the economic benefits but also about the extent and intensity of the impact of this activity on the coastal ecosystems, particularly the effects of pond construction on mangrove areas and other coastal wetlands. For the Northern coast of Sinaloa (Northwest Mexico), a region where shrimp culture is actively practiced and reproduces most of the shrimp controlled production model in Mexico, a land cover change-detection analysis, with Landsat images, outputs that 75% of the shrimp farming in this region has been built on saltmarshes while less than 1% was constructed on mangrove areas. Through the estimation of landscape metrics for different scenarios (with and without shrimp culture infrastructure), we find that in addition to direct removal of saltmarshes, shrimp aquaculture has significantly modified the spatial patterns of coastal wetlands, retreating wetland borders and fragmenting their patches. These last impacts are mainly related with the development of the linear infrastructure associated with shrimp culture (drainage channels and roads), rather than the construction of the ponds. Present findings and other from similar studies done in Northwest Mexico; allow us to estimate that 60% of shrimp farming in Mexico impacted directly on saltmarshes, contrasting with the 3% of shrimp farms built on mangroves.