Consequences of Climate Change on the Ecogeomorphology of Coastal Wetlands

Climate impacts on coastal and estuarine systems take many forms and are dependent on the local conditions, including those set by humans. We use a biocomplexity framework to provide a perspective of the consequences of climate change for coastal wetland ecogeomorphology. We concentrate on three dimensions of climate change affects on ecogeomorphology: sea level rise, changes in storm frequency and intensity, and changes in freshwater, sediment, and nutrient inputs. While sea level rise, storms, sedimentation, and changing freshwater input can directly impact coastal and estuarine wetlands, biological processes can modify these physical impacts. Geomorphological changes to coastal and estuarine ecosystems can induce complex outcomes for the biota that are not themselves intuitively obvious because they are mediated by networks of biological interactions. Human impacts on wetlands occur at all scales. At the global scale, humans are altering climate at rapid rates compared to the historical and recent geological record. Climate change can disrupt ecological systems if it occurs at characteristic time scales shorter than ecological system response and causes alterations in ecological function that foster changes in structure or alter functional interactions. Many coastal wetlands can adjust to predicted climate change, but human impacts, in combination with climate change, will significantly affect coastal wetland ecosystems. Management for climate change must strike a balance between that which allows pulsing of materials and energy to the ecosystems and promotes ecosystem goods and services, while protecting human structures and activities. Science-based management depends on a multi-scale understanding of these biocomplex wetland systems. Causation is often associated with multiple factors, considerable variability, feedbacks, and interferences. The impacts of climate change can be detected through monitoring and assessment of historical or geological records. Attribution can be inferred through these in conjunction with experimentation and modeling. A significant challenge to allow wise management of coastal wetlands is to develop observing systems that act at appropriate scales to detect global climate change and its effects in the context of the various local and smaller scale effects.     

Modelling-based assessment of suspended sediment dynamics in a hypertidal estuarine channel

We investigate the dynamics of suspended sediment transport in a hypertidal estuarine channel which displays a vertically sheared exchange flow. We apply a three-dimensional process-based model coupling hydrodynamics, turbulence and sediment transport to the Dee Estuary, in the north-west region of the UK. The numerical model is used to reproduce observations of suspended sediment and to assess physical processes responsible for the observed suspended sediment concentration patterns. The study period focuses on a calm period during which wave-current interactions can reasonably be neglected. Good agreement between model and observations has been obtained. A series of numerical experiments aim to isolate specific processes and confirm that the suspended sediment dynamics result primarily from advection of a longitudinal gradient in concentration during our study period, combined with resuspension and vertical exchange processes. Horizontal advection of sediment presents a strong semi-diurnal variability, while vertical exchange processes (including time-varying settling as a proxy for flocculation) exhibit a quarter-diurnal variability. Sediment input from the river is found to have very little importance, and spatial gradients in suspended concentration are generated by spatial heterogeneity in bed sediment characteristics and spatial variations in turbulence and bed shear stress.     

Physically Consistent Responses of the Global Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in Models and Observations

Robust and physically understandable responses of the global atmospheric water cycle to a warming climate are presented. By considering interannual responses to changes in surface temperature (T), observations and AMIP5 simulations agree on an increase in column integrated water vapor at the rate 7 %/K (in line with the Clausius–Clapeyron equation) and of precipitation at the rate 2–3 %/K (in line with energetic constraints). Using simple and complex climate models, we demonstrate that radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is currently suppressing global precipitation (P) at ～?0.15 %/decade. Along with natural variability, this can explain why observed trends in global P over the period 1988?2008 are close to zero. Regional responses in the global water cycle are strongly constrained by changes in moisture fluxes. Model simulations show an increased moisture flux into the tropical wet region at 900 hPa and an enhanced outflow (of smaller magnitude) at around 600 hPa with warming. Moisture transport explains an increase in P in the wet tropical regions and small or negative changes in the dry regions of the subtropics in CMIP5 simulations of a warming climate. For AMIP5 simulations and satellite observations, the heaviest 5-day rainfall totals increase in intensity at ～15 %/K over the ocean with reductions at all percentiles over land. The climate change response in CMIP5 simulations shows consistent increases in P over ocean and land for the highest intensities, close to the Clausius?Clapeyron scaling of 7 %/K, while P declines for the lowest percentiles, indicating that interannual variability over land may not be a good proxy for climate change. The local changes in precipitation and its extremes are highly dependent upon small shifts in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional feedbacks.     

Assemblages of megabenthic gastropods from Uruguayan and northern Argentinean shelf: Spatial structure and environmental controls

We analyzed the structure of the megabenthic gastropod assemblages on the Uruguayan and northern Argentinean shelf and slope. Our analysis determined that there are two major biologically distinct assemblages which occurred in a 210,000 km² area showing conspicuous environmental gradients and large frontal areas: (a) an assemblage associated with the zone under the influence of the freshwater discharge of Río de la Plata and the shallow waters of the inner shelf and (b) an assemblage associated with marine zone in the outer shelf, which includes Magellanic (Subantarctic) and subtropical faunas. A multivariate analysis demonstrated a significant correlation between the environmental and biological matrix. This evidence suggests a noticeable effect of the physical environment on the spatial structure of the assemblage. We suggest that the current distribution patterns are caused by two different processes operating together: while processes operating at ecological time scales (e.g. differential tolerances to salinity and depth) determine most of the structure observed at the inner shelf, the presence of two contrasting water masses over the outer shelf determine a biogeographic boundary for the benthic fauna, linked to shifting climatic factors influencing species niche dynamics over evolutionary time scales. Thus, at the spatial scale here considered, ecological and historical processes must be considered when attempting to understand which factors determine the current structure of benthic assemblages at regional scales.     

Effects of fish manipulation on the plankton community in small hypertrophic lakes from the Pampa Plain (Argentina)

Trophic cascade hypotheses predict that fish will affect the structure and biomass of pelagic plankton communities. In order to investigate trophic cascade effects from fish down to phytoplankton, whole-lake studies were performed in five hypertrophic (mean total phosphorus (TP) concentrations higher than 1000 mg m⁻³) shallow lakes located in the Pampa Plain. The main climatic characteristic of this region is the alternation between periods of drought and flood, with corresponding changes of lake depth and conductivity of lake water. All lakes were studied from April to December 2000. Samples were taken of their physical and chemical characteristics and biotic communities, focusing on the zooplankton community. Fish were manipulated in four lakes (Capurro, Longinotti, Vedia 1, Vedia 2), while the fifth (Lake Vedia 3) was left undisturbed as a reference system. High abundance of planktivorous minnows (Jenynsia multidentata and Cheirodon interruptus) dominated the fish community in the reference lake. In the manipulated lakes, fish stocks were largely reduced in late autumn (May). During winter, Capurro, Longinotti and Vedia 1 were stocked with a visual planktivore, the pampean silverside (Odontesthes bonariensis, Atherinidae). Fish stocking was 24, 33 and 19 kg ha⁻¹, respectively. In contrast, no fish were stocked in Lake Vedia 2. Following fish removal, large Daphnia appeared in these lakes and grazed intensively on the phytoplankton. In contrast, no Daphnia were found in the reference lake (Vedia 3). The stocking of O. bonariensis in lakes Capurro, Longinotti and Vedia 1 led to a decrease in the percentage of large cladocerans and a rise in the phytoplankton biomass:TP ratio. Moreover, the lakes mentioned were stocked with different quantities of silversides over different periods of time. These differences were reflected temporarily in the plankton dynamics, affecting mainly larger sized zooplankton. Nevertheless, the presence of Daphnia was short lived in the lake where fish had been removed and no O. bonariensis were stocked. Competition for resources and recruitment of remaining fish probably caused a collapse in the zooplankton biomass. Our results support the idea that fish predation on zooplankton and its effect on phytoplankton is very intense in small pampean lakes. Fish removal was short lived, however. This could be because in small pampean lakes fish recolonization is favored, and minnows are highly prolific. Moreover, if manipulation of the trophic structure of lakes is undertaken in the pampean region, high nutrient loading from the watershed, climate and hydrology should also be taken into account.     

Surge modelling in the eastern Irish Sea: present and future storm impact

It is believed that, in the future, the intensity and frequency of extreme coastal flooding events may increase as a result of climate change. The Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Flood Risk from Extreme Events (FREE) project, Coastal Flooding by Extreme Events and EU FP7 Morphological Impacts and Coastal Risks Induced by Extreme Storm Events project are investigating the flood risks in the eastern Irish Sea, an area that includes most of England’s coastal types. Using a previously modelled and validated historical extreme surge event, in November 1977, we now investigate the changes in peak surge as a result of possible future climate conditions. In order to simulate the surge, we have set up a one-way nested approach, using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System 3D baroclinic model, from a domain covering the whole NW European continental shelf, through to a 1.85 km Irish Sea model; both areas are forced by tides, atmospheric pressure and winds. We use this modelling system to investigate the impact of enhanced wind velocities and increased sea levels on the peak surge elevation and residual current pattern. The results show that sea level rise has greater potential to increase surge levels than increased wind speeds.