Physically Consistent Responses of the Global Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in Models and Observations

Robust and physically understandable responses of the global atmospheric water cycle to a warming climate are presented. By considering interannual responses to changes in surface temperature (T), observations and AMIP5 simulations agree on an increase in column integrated water vapor at the rate 7 %/K (in line with the Clausius–Clapeyron equation) and of precipitation at the rate 2–3 %/K (in line with energetic constraints). Using simple and complex climate models, we demonstrate that radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is currently suppressing global precipitation (P) at ～?0.15 %/decade. Along with natural variability, this can explain why observed trends in global P over the period 1988?2008 are close to zero. Regional responses in the global water cycle are strongly constrained by changes in moisture fluxes. Model simulations show an increased moisture flux into the tropical wet region at 900 hPa and an enhanced outflow (of smaller magnitude) at around 600 hPa with warming. Moisture transport explains an increase in P in the wet tropical regions and small or negative changes in the dry regions of the subtropics in CMIP5 simulations of a warming climate. For AMIP5 simulations and satellite observations, the heaviest 5-day rainfall totals increase in intensity at ～15 %/K over the ocean with reductions at all percentiles over land. The climate change response in CMIP5 simulations shows consistent increases in P over ocean and land for the highest intensities, close to the Clausius?Clapeyron scaling of 7 %/K, while P declines for the lowest percentiles, indicating that interannual variability over land may not be a good proxy for climate change. The local changes in precipitation and its extremes are highly dependent upon small shifts in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional feedbacks.     

Exploring the reservoir potential of Lower Cretaceous Clinoforms in the Fingerdjupet Subbasin,Norwegian Barents Sea

Sandy clinothems are of interest as hydrocarbon reservoirs but there is no proven, economic, clinothem reservoir in the Norwegian Barents Sea. We used high-resolution, 2D and 3D seismic, including proprietary data, to identify a previously untested, Barremian, clinoform wedge in the Fingerdjupet Subbasin (FSB). Data from recent well 7322/7-1 plus seismic have been used to characterize this wedge and older Lower Cretaceous clinoforms in the FSB. In the latest Hauterivian – early Barremian, during post-rift tectonic quiescence, shelf-edge clinoforms (foreset height > 150 m) prograded into an under-filled basin. Increased sediment input was related to regional uplift of the hinterland (northern Barents Shelf). Early Barremian erosion in the north-western FSB and mass wasting towards the SE were followed by deposition of delta-scale (<80 m high), high-angle (c. 8°) clinoform sets seaward of older shelf-edge clinoforms. This may be the local expression of a regional, early Barremian, regressive event. By the close of the Barremian, clinoforms had prograded, within a narrow, elongate basin, across the FSB and towards the uplifted Loppa High. A seismic wedge of high-angle (10–12°), low-relief, delta-scale (25–80 m) clinoform sets occurs between shelf-edge clinoforms to the NW and the uplifted area to the SE. Well 7322/7-1, positioned on a direct hydrocarbon indicator, <1 km NNW of the high-angle, low-relief, delta-scale clinoforms, found upward coarsening siltstone-cycles linked to relative sea-level fluctuations on a marine shelf. Sand may have accumulated, offshore from the well, in high-angle, low-relief foresets of the delta-scale clinothems (which are typical geometries elsewhere interpreted as ‘delta-scale, sand-prone subaqueous clinoforms’). Deposition was controlled by the paleosurface, storms and longshore currents on an otherwise mud-dominated shelf. The study highlights challenges associated with exploration for sandstone reservoirs in seismic wedges on an outer shelf.     

Grazing effects on patchy dryland vegetation in northern Patagonia

In this study the spatial patterns and dynamics of vegetation patches along a grazing gradient in the steppe ofLarrea divaricataandStipaspp. in NE Patagonia (Argentina) are described. A general effect of grazing is the reduction of total plant cover resulting from the decrease in cover of perennial grasses (Stipa speciosa, Poa ligularis, Stipa tenuis) and some tall shrubs (Chuquiraga hystrix, Bougainvillea spinosa, Lycium chilense). Dwarf shrubs (Nassauvia fueguianaandJunellia seriphioides) increase their cover under medium and/or high grazing pressures. Plant species are spatially grouped into patches which alternate with areas of bare soil. Eleven types of vegetation patch differing in the dominant plant functional type or species, floristic richness and size were identified with different relative frequency along the grazing gradient. Based on these results, it is postulated that grazing forces the replacement of large patches dominated by tall shrubs with high species richness, byLarrea divaricatapatches or small dwarf shrub patches with low species richness and the extinction of grass patches. This results from: (1) disruption of local balances of species deletions and additions; (2) fragmentation of large patches; and (3) formation of new vegetation patches. These changes lead to differing plant spatial organization and heterogeneity along the grazing gradient which may be described by characteristic arrays of vegetation patches.     

The structural and thematic mapping of coral reefs using high Resolution SPOT data: Application to the Tétembia reef (New Caledonia)

This paper describes the application of high‐resolution SPOT data for the structural and thematic mapping of shallow coral reefs. Results are presented as structural and thematic maps of the main reef environment types. Different substrate themes including soft bottom, coral débris, coral rubble, and living coral have been identified. The separation of various living coral themes, as measured by differences in areal coral density, has also been achieved.     

Shallow landslides as drivers for slope ecosystem evolution and biophysical diversity

Shallow landslides may be seen as local disturbances that foster the evolution of slope landscapes as part of their self-regulating capacity. Gaining insight into how slope ecosystems function and evolve could make eco-engineering interventions on slopes more successful. The objective of the present study is to detect traits of shallow landslide-triggered ecosystem evolution, self-regulation and biophysical diversity in a small-scale landslide-prone slope in Northeast Scotland. A protocol was defined to explore the emergence of landslide-driven slope habitats. This protocol studied plant diversity, species richness and plant biomass differences and their interactions with certain soil and topographic attributes at three slope strata during two consecutive growing seasons following an assemblage of shallow landslide events. Plant species and soil properties with potential as indicators of the different landslide-driven slope habitats and landscape evolution were also considered. Shallow landslides contributed to biophysical diversity and created distinct slope habitats within the landscape. Habitat differences in terms of species richness and composition were a direct consequence of the slope self-regulation. Certain plant species were found to be valid indicators of landslide-driven biophysical diversity. Soil total nitrogen and resistance to penetration were related to slope habitat and landscape evolution. As expected, plant establishment relied upon light and nitrogen trade-offs, which in turn were influenced by landscape topography. The insights derived from this study will be useful in slope restoration, particularly in harmonising effective actions with the functioning of landslide-prone ecosystems. Further research directions to clarify the observed variability and interactions are highlighted.     

Seismic Hazard Evaluation Using Markov Chains: Application to the Japan Area

Seismogenic regions within some geographic area are interrelated through tectonics and seismic history, although this relation is usually complex, so that seismicity in a given region cannot be predicted in a straightforward manner from the activity in other region(s). We present a new statistical method for seismic hazard evaluation based on modeling the transition probabilities of seismicity patterns in the regions of a geographic area during a time interval, as a Markov chain. Application of the method to the Japan area renders good results, considering the occurrence of a high probability transition as a successful forecast. For magnitudes M5.5 and time intervals t=0.10 year, the method yields a 78% aftcast (forecast of data already used to evaluate the hazard) success rate for the entire catalog, and an indicative 80% forecast success rate for the last 10 transitions in the catalog. A byproduct of the method, regional occurrence probabilities determined from the transition probabilities, also provides good results; aftcasts of regional activity have a 98% success rate, and those of activity in the highest probability region about 80.5% success rate. All results are superior to those from the null hypotheses (a memory-less Poissonian, fixed-rate, or uniform system) and have vanishingly small probabilities of resulting from purely random guessing.     

Capacity building to achieve sustainable fisheries management in Mexico

Achieving sustainable fisheries management is an enormous challenge and involves the enhancement of scientific and technological management capacities worldwide. The improvement of this capacity building (CB) is particularly crucial to developing countries with massive fisheries such as Mexico. To understand the current status of CB in Mexico, the contemporary development of its academic research system was examined by undertaking a bibliographic review of specialized literature, including research institutions and postgraduate programs. The resulting information was considered as Mexican CB indicators and its theoretical and spatio-temporal analysis revealed capabilities are increasingly supporting research topics related to advancing sustainable fisheries development. However, because the recent and tumultuous development of the Mexican academic research system, much of the knowledge accumulated centers on commercial resources, and the renovation of the system itself is geographically inconsistent. In this paper, some key insights on how to improve Mexican CB process are highlighted.