Monsoon triggered formation of Quaternary alluvial megafans in the interior of Oman

A vast bajada consisting of coalescing low-gradient (< 0.3°) alluvial fans exceeding 100 km in length formed along the southwestern margin of the Oman Mountains. It comprises an old fan sequence of inferred Miocene to Pliocene age termed Barzaman Formation, diagenetically highly altered to dolomitic clays, and a thin veneer of weakly cemented Quaternary gravels. A combination of remote sensing, lithological analyses and luminescence dating is used to interpret the complex aggradation history of the Quaternary alluvial fans from the interior of Oman in the context of independent regional climate records. From satellite imagery and clast analysis four fans can be discerned in the study area. While two early periods of fan formation are tentatively correlated to the Miocene–Pliocene and the Early Pleistocene, luminescence dating allows the distinction of five phases of fan aggradation during the Middle–Late Pleistocene. These phases are correlated with pluvial periods from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 through 3, when southern Arabia was affected by monsoonal precipitation. It is concluded that the aggradation of the alluvial fans was triggered by the interplay of increased sediment production during arid periods and high rainfall with enhanced erosion of hillslopes and transport rates during strong monsoon phases. However, the lack of fine-grained sediments, bioturbation and organic material implies that although the Quaternary fans are sourced by monsoonal rains they formed in a semi-arid environment. Thus, it appears that, in contrast to the Oman Mountains, the interior was not directly affected by monsoonal precipitation.     

大连国际航运中心建设SEA的系统动力学研究

国际航运中心建设是一项复杂的综合性系统工程,系统内存在着错综复杂的关系,可以采用解决非线性问题的系统动力学方法对其进行仿真模拟。针对目前战略环境评价技术方法的不完善,采用系统动力学方法,在分析国际航运中心系统的主要影响因素及其因果关系的基础上,建立了包括人口、经济、交通、能源和环境子系统的系统动力学模型,并利用大连市相关统计数据对模型进行了仿真模拟和验证。通过对仿真结果的分析和预测,符合实际情况,为规划的实施提供科学的决策依据。     

腐殖酸在海水/矿物界面上的吸附行为

用批量平衡实验法研究了腐殖酸(Humic acid,HA)在4种矿物蒙脱石、高岭石、针铁矿和水锰矿上的吸附。Freundlich和Langmuir模型都可以很好地描述吸附行为。矿物对腐殖酸的吸附能力顺序为:针铁矿水锰矿蒙脱石高岭石。增大盐度有利于促进吸附,但溶解有机质对吸附影响很小。腐殖酸在蒙脱石、高岭石和水锰矿3种矿物上的吸附随溶液pH值的升高而减少,而在针铁矿上的吸附只有当pH值高于7时才逐渐降低。腐殖酸在矿物表面上的作用机制最可能是疏水作用和氢键作用。     

长江口及邻近海域溢油实时预测研究

使用国际上最新发展起来的基于半隐式有限元法的SELFE模型,建立了1个采用非结构网格系统的三维风海流、潮流和斜压流耦合的长江口及邻近海域水动力模型.利用欧拉-拉格朗日和随机走动理论,在三维水动力模型的基础上研发了考虑溢油蒸发过程和波浪效应的三维溢油粒子扩散模型,结合实时预报的风场和相应的海浪场数据,形成了1个适用于本区...     

双向速度脉冲地震下偏心重力柱核心筒结构的弹塑性地震响应研究

研究速度脉冲地震和结构质量偏心综合不利条件下新型重力柱-核心筒结构体系的弹塑性反应规律。选取速度脉冲和非速度脉冲地震加速度记录各10条,进行地震动双向输入,采用结构非线性分析软件CANNY进行有限元数值分析,研究脉冲型地震和结构质量偏心对新型体系弹塑性地震反应的影响。分析结果表明,速度脉冲型地震作用下各结构的层间位移角、层间剪力和层间扭转角显著高于非速度脉冲地震下的相应值。质量偏心对结构弹塑性抗震需求影响显著,层间位移角和层间扭转角都随着偏心率的增大而增大,而层间剪力则随偏心率的增大呈减小趋势。建议在重力柱-核心筒结构设计中应重视速度脉冲地震和结构偏心的耦合不利影响。     

九寨沟地震发震断层属性及青藏高原东南缘现今应变状态讨论

九寨沟地震(M_s7.0或M_w6.5)震中位于青藏高原巴颜喀拉块体东缘东昆仑断裂带东端塔藏断裂、岷江断裂和虎牙断裂交汇部位,中国地震局相关科研机构的研究人员曾将该震中区判定为玛沁—玛曲高震级地震危险区.地震应急科学考察期间没有发现地震地表破裂带,但地震烈度等震线长轴方位、极震区基岩崩塌和滑坡集中带、重新定位余震空间展布和震源机制解等显示出发震断层为NNW向虎牙断裂北段,左旋走滑性质,属东昆仑断裂带东端分支断层之一.此外,汶川地震后,在青藏高原东缘和东南缘次级活动断层上发生了包括2017年九寨沟地震(Mw6.5)、2014年鲁甸(M_w6.2)、景谷(M_w6.2)、康定(M_w6.0)等多次中强地震,显示出青藏高原东缘至东南缘各块体主干边界活动断层现今处于中等偏高的应变积累状态,即在巴颜喀拉、川滇等块体主干边界活动断层上具备了发生高震级(M_w≥7.0)地震的构造应力-应变条件,未来发生高震级地震的危险性不容忽视.     

Improving monthly streamflow prediction in alpine regions: integrating HBV model with Bayesian neural network

Statistical methods have been widely used to build different streamflow prediction models; however, lacking of physical mechanism prevents precise streamflow prediction in alpine regions dominated by rainfall, snow and glacier. To improve precision, a new hybrid model (HBNN) integrating HBV hydrological model, Bayesian neural network (BNN) and uncertainty analysis is proposed. In this approach, the HBV is mainly used to generate initial snow-melt and glacier-melt runoffs that are regarded as new inputs of BNN for precision improvement. To examine model reliability, a hybrid deterministic model called HLSSVM incorporating the HBV model and least-square support vector machine is also developed and compared with HBNN in a typical region, the Yarkant River basin in Central Asia. The findings suggest that the HBNN model is a robust streamflow prediction model for alpine regions and capable of combining strengths of both the BNN statistical model and the HBV hydrological model, providing not only more precise streamflow prediction but also more reasonable uncertainty intervals than competitors particularly at high flows. It can be used in predicting streamflow for similar regions worldwide.     

A new instability mechanism related to high-angle waves

Waves with a large incidence angle in deep water can drive a morphodynamic instability on a sandy coast whereby shoreline sand waves, cuspate forelands, and spits can emerge. This instability is related to bathymetric perturbations extending offshore in the shoaling zone. Here, we explore a different mechanism where the large incidence angle is supposed to occur at breaking and the bathymetric perturbations occur only in the surf zone. For wave incidence angles at breaking above ≈?45^°, the one-line approximation of coastal dynamics predicts an unstable shoreline. This instability (EHAWI) is scale-free and the growth rate increases without bound for decreasing wavelength. Here we use a 2DH morphodynamic model resolving surf zone instabilities to investigate whether EHAWI could approximate a real instability in nature with a characteristic length scale. Assuming very idealized conditions on the bathymetric profile and sediment transport, we find a 2DH instability mode consisting of shore-oblique up-current bars coupled to a meandering of the longshore current. This mode grows for high-angle waves, above about 30^° (offshore) and the maximum growth rate occurs for the angle maximizing the angle at breaking, about 70^° (offshore). The dominant wavelength is of the order of the surf zone width. Interestingly, for long sand waves, the growth rate never becomes negative and it matches very well the anti-diffusive behavior of EHAWI. This distinguishes the present instability mode from other modes found in previous studies for other bathymetric and sediment transport conditions. Thus, we conclude that EHAWI approximates a real morphodynamic instability only for quite particular conditions. In such case, a characteristic length scale of the instability emerges thanks to surf zone processes that damp short wavelengths.     

The effect of tides and storms on the sediment transport across a Dutch barrier island

Under natural conditions, barrier islands might grow vertically and migrate onshore under the influence of long‐term sea level rise. Sediment is transported onshore during storm‐induced overwash and inundation. However, on many Dutch Wadden Islands, dune openings are closed off by artificial sand‐drift dikes that prevent the influx of sediment during storms. It has been argued that creating openings in the dune row to allow regular flooding on barrier islands can have a positive effect on the sediment budget, but the dominant hydrodynamic processes and their influence on sediment transport during overwash and inundation are unknown. Here, we present an XBeach model study to investigate how sediment transport during overwash and inundation across the beach of a typical mesotidal Wadden Sea barrier island is influenced by wave, tide and storm surge conditions. Firstly, we validated the model XBeach with field data on waves and currents during island inundation. In general, the XBeach model performed well. Secondly, we studied the long‐term sediment transport across the barrier island. We distinguished six representative inundation classes, ranging from frequently occurring, low‐energy events to infrequent, high‐energy events, and simulated the hydrodynamics and sediment transport during these events. An analysis of the model simulations shows that larger storm events cause larger cross‐shore sediment transport, but the net sediment exchange during a storm levels off or even becomes smaller for the largest inundation classes because it is counteracted by larger mean water levels in the Wadden Sea that oppose or even reverse sediment transport during inundation. When taking into account the frequency of occurrence of storms we conclude that the cumulative effect of relatively mild storms on long‐term cross‐shore sediment transport is much larger than that of the large storm events. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Assessment of spatial transferability of process‐based hydrological model parameters in two neighbouring catchments in the Himalayan Region

Estimating the hydrological regime of ungauged catchments in the Himalayan region is challenging due to a lack of sufficient monitoring stations. In this paper, the spatial transferability of the model parameters of the process‐oriented J2000 hydrological model was investigated in 2 glaciated subcatchments of the Koshi river basin in eastern Nepal. The catchments have a high degree of similarity with respect to their static landscape features. The model was first calibrated (1986–1991) and validated (1992–1997) in the Dudh Koshi subcatchment. The calibrated and validated model parameters were then transferred to the nearby Tamor catchment (2001–2009). Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were carried out for both subcatchments to discover the sensitivity range of the parameters in the two catchments. The model represented the overall hydrograph well in both subcatchments, including baseflow, rising and falling limbs; however, the peak flows were underestimated. The efficiency results according to both Nash–Sutcliffe (ENS) and the coefficient of determination (r²) were above 0.84 in both catchments (1986–1997 in Dudh Koshi and 2001–2009 in Tamor). The ranking of the parameters in respect to their sensitivity matched well for both catchments while taking ENS and log Nash–Sutcliffe (LNS) efficiencies into account. However, there were some differences in sensitivity to ENS and LNS for moderately and less‐sensitive parameters, although the majority (13 out of 16 for ENS and 16 out of 16 for LNS) had a sensitivity response in a similar range. The generalized uncertainty likelihood estimation results suggest that the parameter uncertainty are most of the time within the range and the ensemble mean matches very good (ENS: 0.84) with observed discharge. The results indicate that transfer of the J2000 parameters to a neighbouring catchment in the Himalayan region with similar physiographic landscape characteristics is viable. This indicates the possibility of applying a calibrated process‐based J2000 model to other ungauged catchments in the Himalayan region, which could provide important insights into the hydrological system dynamics and provide much needed information to support water resources planning and management.