Multi-century variability in the Pacific North American circulation pattern reconstructed from tree rings

We here present a reconstruction (1725–1999) of the winter Pacific North American (PNA) pattern based on three winter climate sensitive tree ring records from the western USA. Positive PNA phases in our record are associated with warm phases of ENSO and PDO and the reorganization of the PNA pattern towards a positive mode is strongest when ENSO and PDO are in phase. Regime shifts in our PNA record correspond to climatic shifts in other proxies of Pacific climate variability, including two well-documented shifts in the instrumental period (1976 and 1923). The correspondence breaks down in the early 19th century, when our record shows a prolonged period of positive PNA, with a peak in 1800–1820. This period corresponds to a period of low solar activity (Dalton Minimum), suggesting a ‘positive PNA like’ response to decreased solar irradiance. The distinct 30-year periodicity that dominates the PNA reconstruction in the 18th century and again from 1875 onwards is disrupted during this period.     

How adoption rates, timing, and ceilings affect the value of ENSO-based climate forecasts

An international wheat trade model incorporating climate variability is used to simulate different scenarios when wheat producers in the USA, Canada, and Australia adopt El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based climate forecasts for use in production decisions. Adoption timing and rates are varied across countries in the different scenarios. The results are consistent between the scenarios examined. Early adopters benefit the most, there is no incentive for more producers to adopt after 60 to 95% have adopted (meaning the adoption ceiling has been reached), and slower adoption corresponds to ceilings closer to 60 than 95%. When individual countries must decide whether or not to invest in ENSO technology and producer education programs to encourage adoption, results indicate the dominant strategy for each country is to invest. This is especially true if producers in other countries are adopting the use of climate forecasts.     

Northern hemisphere winter atmospheric climate: modes of natural variability and climate change

Under anthropogenic climate change it is possible that the increased radiative forcing and associated changes in mean climate may affect the “dynamical equilibrium” of the climate system; leading to a change in the relative dominance of different modes of natural variability, the characteristics of their patterns or their behavior in the time domain. Here we use multi-century integrations of version three of the Hadley Centre atmosphere model coupled to a mixed layer ocean to examine potential changes in atmosphere-surface ocean modes of variability. After first evaluating the simulated modes of Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature and geopotential height against observations, we examine their behavior under an idealized equilibrium doubling of atmospheric CO₂. We find no significant changes in the order of dominance, the spatial patterns or the associated time series of the modes. Having established that the dynamic equilibrium is preserved in the model on doubling of CO₂, we go on to examine the temperature pattern of mean climate change in terms of the modes of variability; the motivation being that the pattern of change might be explicable in terms of changes in the amount of time the system resides in a particular mode. In addition, if the two are closely related, we might be able to assess the relative credibility of different spatial patterns of climate change from different models (or model versions) by assessing their representation of variability. Significant shifts do appear to occur in the mean position of residence when examining a truncated set of the leading order modes. However, on examining the complete spectrum of modes, it is found that the mean climate change pattern is close to orthogonal to all of the modes and the large shifts are a manifestation of this orthogonality. The results suggest that care should be exercised in using a truncated set of variability EOFs to evaluate climate change signals.     

HSR mechanisms and effects on the spatial structure of regional tourism in China

Chinese railway has entered the “HSR era”, while the structure of “four vertical and four horizontal” railways for transit passengers is almost completed. Taking the Beijing- Shanghai High-Speed Rail (hereinafter referred to as HSR) as an example, this paper first explores HSR’s effects on the spatial structure of regional tourist flows using the social network analysis. Next, it notes changes in the accessibility of regional transportation. After analyzing the factors including initial endowment of regional tourism resources, hospitality facilities, the density of the regional tourism transportation network, and locations, the paper discusses the mechanisms through which HSR affects regional tourist flows. The study shows the following: (1) HSR’s effects on the spatial structure of regional tourist flows are manifested through the Matthew effect, the filtering effect, the diffusion effect and the overlying effect, and (2) the Matthew effect of HSR is manifested under an obvious interaction of the location, the initial endowment of tourism resources, hospitality capacity, tourist transportation network density and “time-space compression”. The filtering effect of HSR is manifested for those tourism nodes without favorable location conditions, endowment of tourism resources, hospitality capacity, or tourist transportation network density and without obvious benefits from “time-space compression”. Those tourism nodes that boast advantages in terms of location condition, endowment of tourism resources, hospitality capacity, tourist transportation network density and obvious “time-space compression” will become sources for the diffusion effect. HSR will strengthen the aggregation effects of tourist flow in these diffusion sources, which will thereafter diffuse to peripheral tourist areas, manifesting “aggregation-diffusion”. HSR has overlapped tourists’ spatial traveling range over large-scale spaces. However, the overlying effect is only generated in those tourism nodes with a favorable location condition, an endowment of tourism resources, hospitality capacity, tourist transportation network density, and obvious “time-space compression”.     

A radar survey of M- and X-class asteroids II. Summary and synthesis

Using the S-band radar at Arecibo Observatory, we observed six new M-class main-belt asteroids (MBAs), and re-observed one, bringing the total number of Tholen M-class asteroids observed with radar to 19. The mean radar albedo for all our targets is , significantly higher than the mean radar albedo of every other class (Magri, C., Nolan, M.C., Ostro, S.J., Giorgini, J.D. [2007]. Icarus 186, 126-151). Seven of these objects (Asteroids 16 Psyche, 129 Antigone, 216 Kleopatra, 347 Pariana, 758 Mancunia, 779 Nina, 785 Zwetana) have radar albedos indicative of a very high metal content , and consistent with a remnant iron/nickel core interpretation (irons) or exotic high metal meteorite types such as CB. We propose designating these high radar albedo objects as Mm. Two asteroids, 110 Lydia and 678 Fredegundis, have more moderate radar albedos , but exhibit high values at some rotation phases suggesting a significant metal content. The remaining 10 objects have moderate radar albedos at all rotation phases. Most of our targets have visible/near-infrared spectra (Hardersen, P.S., Gaffey, M.J., Abell, P.A. [2005]. Icarus 175, 141-158; Fornasier, S., Clark, B.E., Dotto, E., Migliorini, A., Ockert-Bell, M., Barucci, M.A. [2009]. Icarus, submitted for publication) that indicate the presence of at least some silicate phases. All of the non-Mm asteroids show a positive correlation between visual and radar albedo but the reasons for this are not clear. All of the higher radar albedo targets (the 7 Mm asteroids, Lydia, and Fredegundis) show moderate to large variations in radar albedo with rotation phase. We suggest that their high radar reflectivity exaggerates irregularities in the asteroid shape to cause this behavior. One-third of our targets show evidence for asteroid-scale concavities or bifurcation. Based on all the evidence available, we suggest that most Tholen M-class asteroids are not remnant iron cores or enstatite chondrites, but rather collisional composites of silicates and irons with compositions more analogous to stony-iron meteorites and high-iron carbonaceous chondrites.     

The Berduc L6 chondrite fall: Meteorite characterization,trajectory, and orbital elements

Abstract– The fall of the Berduc meteorite took place on April 7, 2008, at 01 h 02 min 28 s ± 1 s UTC. A daylight fireball was witnessed by hundreds of people from Argentina and Uruguay, and also recorded by an infrasound array in Paraguay. From the available data, the fireball trajectory and radiant have been reconstructed with moderate accuracy. The modeled trajectory was tested to fit the infrasound and strewn field data. From the computed apparent radiant α = 87 ± 2° and δ = ?11 ± 2° and taking into account a range of plausible initial velocities, we obtained a range of orbital solutions. All of them suggest that the progenitor meteoroid originated from the main asteroid belt and followed an orbit of low inclination. Based on petrography, mineral chemistry, magnetic susceptibility, and bulk chemistry, the Berduc meteorite is classified as an L6 ordinary chondrite.     

Roll,pitch, and yaw determination using a global positioning system receiver and an antenna periodically moving in a plane

This paper proposes the use of change‐in‐phase measurements of a multiple‐satellite‐tracking NAVSTAR Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver and an antenna periodically moving in a platform's plane to determine the platform's orientation. Available test data are used to demonstrate the orientation‐determination capability of GPS using the proposed procedure. The expected accuracy using satellite multiplexing receivers currently completing development is also discussed.     

Bayesian dynamic modeling for large space-time datasets using Gaussian predictive processes

In this paper, we extend the applicability of a previously proposed class of dynamic space-time models by enabling them to accommodate large datasets. We focus on the common setting where space is viewed as continuous but time is taken to be discrete. Scalability is achieved by using a low-rank predictive process to reduce the dimensionality of the data and ease the computational burden of estimating the spatio-temporal process of interest. The proposed models are illustrated using weather station data collected over the northeastern United States between 2000 and 2005. Here our interest is to use readily available predictors, association among measurements at a given station, as well as dependence across space and time to improve prediction for incomplete station records and locations where station data does not exist.     

Re-evaluating Nd/Nd in lunar mare basalts with implications for the early evolution and bulk Sm/Nd of the Moon

The Moon likely accreted from melt and vapor ejected during a cataclysmic collision between Proto-Earth and a Mars-sized impactor very early in solar system history. The identical W, O, K, and Cr isotope compositions between materials from the Earth and Moon require that the material from the two bodies were well-homogenized during the collision process. As such, the ancient isotopic signatures preserved in lunar samples provide constraints on the bulk composition of the Earth. Two recent studies to obtain high-precision ¹⁴²Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios of lunar mare basalts yielded contrasting results. In one study, after correction of neutron fluence effects imparted to the Nd isotope compositions of the samples, the coupled ¹⁴²Nd-¹⁴³Nd systematics were interpreted to be consistent with a bulk Moon having a chondritic Sm/Nd ratio [Rankenburg K., Brandon A. D. and Neal C. R. (2006) Neodymium isotope evidence for a chondritic composition of the Moon. Science312, 1369-1372]. The other study found that their data on the same and similar lunar mare basalts were consistent with a bulk Moon having a superchondritic Sm/Nd ratio [Boyet M. and Carlson R. W. (2007) A highly depleted Moon or a non-magma origin for the lunar crust? Earth Planet. Sci. Lett.262, 505-516]. Delineating between these two potential scenarios has key ramifications for a comprehensive understanding of the formation and early evolution of the Moon and for constraining the types of materials available for accretion into large terrestrial planets such as Earth.To further examine this issue, the same six lunar mare basalt samples measured in Rankenburg et al. [Rankenburg K., Brandon A. D. and Neal C. R. (2006) Neodymium isotope evidence for a chondritic composition of the Moon. Science312, 1369-1372] were re-measured for high-precision Nd isotopes using a multidynamic routine with reproducible internal and external precisions to better than ±3 ppm (2σ) for ¹⁴²Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios. The measurements were repeated in a distinct second analytical campaign to further test their reproducibility. Evaluation of accuracy and neutron fluence corrections indicates that the multidynamic Nd isotope measurements in this study and the 3 in Boyet and Carlson [Boyet M. and Carlson R. W. (2007) A highly depleted Moon or a non-magma origin for the lunar crust? Earth Planet. Sci. Lett.262, 505-516] are reproducible, while static measurements in the previous two studies show analytical artifacts and cannot be used at the resolution of 10 ppm to determine a bulk Moon with either chondritic or superchondritic Sm/Nd ratios. The multidynamic data are best explained by a bulk Moon with a superchondritic Sm/Nd ratio that is similar to the present-day average for depleted MORB. Hafnium isotope data were collected on the same aliquots measured for their ¹⁴²Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd isotope ratios in order to assess if the correlation line for ¹⁴²Nd-¹⁴³Nd systematics reflect mixing processes or times at which lunar mantle sources formed. Based on the combined ¹⁴²Nd-¹⁴³Nd-¹⁷⁶Hf obtained we conclude that the ¹⁴²Nd-¹⁴³Nd correlation line measured in this study is best interpreted as an isochron with an age of 229⁺²⁴₋₂₀Ma after the onset of nebular condensation. The uncertainties in the data permit the sources of these samples to have formed over a 44 Ma time interval. These new results for lunar mare basalts are thus consistent with a later Sm-Nd isotope closure time of their source regions than some recent studies have postulated, and a superchondritic bulk Sm/Nd ratio of the Moon and Earth. The superchondritic Sm/Nd signature was inherited from the materials that accreted to make up the Earth-Moon system. Although collisional erosion of crust from planetesimals is favored here to remove subchondritic Sm/Nd portions and drive the bulk of these bodies to superchondritic in composition, removal of explosive basalt material via gravitational escape from such bodies, or chondrule sorting in the inner solar system, may also explain the compositional features that deviate from average chondrites that make up the Earth-Moon system. This inferred superchondritic nature for the Earth similar to the modern convecting mantle means that there is no reason to invoke a missing, subchondritic reservoir to mass balance the Earth back to chondritic for Sm/Nd ratios. However, to account for the subchondritic Sm/Nd ratios of continental crust, a second superchondritic Sm/Nd mantle reservoir is required.     

Spatial patterns of Holocene glacier advance and retreat in Central Asia

Glaciers in the southern Himalayas advanced in the early Holocene despite an increase in incoming summer solar insolation at the top of the atmosphere. These glacier advances are in contrast to the smaller alpine glaciers in the western and northern regions of Central Asia. Two different glacier mass-balance models are used to reconcile this Holocene glacier history with climate by quantifying the change in equilibrium-line altitudes (ELA) for simulated changes in Holocene climate. Both ELA models clearly show that the lowering of ELAs in the southern Himalayas is largely due to a decrease in summer temperatures, and that an increase in monsoonal precipitation accounts for less than 30% of the total ELA changes. The decrease in summer temperatures is a dynamic response to the changes in solar insolation, resulting in both a decrease in incoming shortwave radiation at the surface due to an increase in cloudiness and an increase in evaporative cooling. In the western and northern zones of Central Asia, both ELA models show a rise in ELAs in response to a general increase in summer temperatures. This increase in temperatures in the more northern regions is a direct radiative response to the increase in summer solar insolation.