Apparent dynamic stability of the southeast African coast despite sea level rise

The coast of southeast Africa is dominated by sandy beaches that tend to be confined within log‐spiral or headland‐bound embayments. Investigations using serendipitous air imagery data set have been previously undertaken and conclusions drawn about the stability of the coast. We show that conclusions drawn from this data, with respect to the high water mark (HWM) position are fraught with errors, which include tidal state, pressure regime, beach slope, high‐swell erosion, seasonal and multi‐annual changes. We highlight and discuss these sources of error, together with their magnitudes. The most significant of these are the high‐swell, seasonal and multi‐annual variations. From case studies we show that the seasonal beach rotation and long‐term beach width variation are responsible for tens of metres of unaccounted HWM variation, 30 to 50 m is common, with maximums reaching 60 to 100 m. Overall the southeast African coastline appears to be in a state of long‐term dynamic equilibrium. There is no evidence of any sea‐level rise‐forced transgression in the coastal sediment budget, despite sea‐level rise (SLR). If such a signal is, in fact present, it is lost within the beach width variation. Some southeast African coastal reaches are suffering chronic erosion, but these are related to anthropogenic impacts. The extreme difficulty of placing a HWM, with any temporal validity on this coast precludes the routine use of the Bruun Rule. Although no transgressive signature is found, there is evidence of a decreasing coastal sand budget as a result of anthropogenic or natural climate change, or both. This decrease in the coastal sand volume is likely to result in increased future erosion. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of magma mixing in the petrogenesis of mafic alkaline lavas,Rockeskyllerkopf Volcanic Complex,West Eifel,Germany

The quaternary Rockeskyllerkopf Volcanic Complex (RVC) comprises three spatially and temporally distinct volcanic centers that can also be distinguished on the basis of their geochemical signatures. All the volcanic products in the complex are olivine basanites whose major and trace element compositions span almost the entire range defined for the West Eifel field as a whole. The RVC lavas have lower Al₂O₃, Na₂O and Y contents and higher TiO₂, CaO, K₂O, Sc, V, Co, Rb, and Ba than the Tertiary lavas in nearby Hocheifel volcanic field. Within the complex, the oldest South East Lammersdorf Center (SEL) comprises primitive lavas with an average MgO content of ～11 wt.% and La_N/Yb_N of 29?±?2. The second center, Mäuseberg, has similar MgO to SEL but is distinct in its much higher La_N/Yb_N of 42?±?2. The Rockeskyllerkopf Center, which was erupted after a break in activity, comprises lavas similar in composition to the SEL Center but with distinctly higher Al₂O₃ and lower MgO contents. Given the lack of evidence for significant fractionation or assimilation in the RVC lavas, we attribute the compositional variations within and between the centers of the RVC to be due to variations in the composition of the source region in combination with magma mixing. Our preferred model involves 1–5% partial melting of LREE-enriched mantle in the garnet stability field, likely within the thermal boundary layer at the base of the lithospheric mantle. These melts mixed to variable degrees with 2–4% partial melts of phlogopite-spinel peridotite formed at higher levels in the modally metasomatised lithospheric mantle.     

Andesitic Plinian eruptions at Mt. Ruapehu: quantifying the uppermost limits of eruptive parameters

New tephro-stratigraphic studies of the Tongariro Volcanic Centre (TgVC) on the North Island (New Zealand) allowed reconstruction of some of the largest, andesitic, explosive eruptions of Mt. Ruapehu. Large eruptions were common in the Late Pleistocene, before a transition to strombolian-vulcanian and phreatomagmatic eruptive styles that have predominated over the past 10,000?years. Considering this is the most active volcano in North Island of New Zealand and the uppermost hazard limits are unknown, we identified and mapped the pyroclastic deposits corresponding to the five largest eruptions since ~27?ka. The selected eruptive units are also characterised by distinctive lithofacies associations correlated to different behaviours of the eruptive column. In addition, we clarify the source of the ~10–9.7?ka Pahoka Tephra, identified by previous authors as the product of one of the largest eruptions of the TgVC. The most common explosive eruptions taking place between ~13.6 and ~10?ka?cal?years BP involved strongly oscillating, partially collapsing eruptive columns up to 37?km high, at mass discharge rates up to 6?×?10⁸?kg/s and magnitudes of 4.9, ejecting minimum estimated volumes of 0.6?km³. Our results indicate that this volcano (as well as the neighbouring andesitic Mt. Tongariro) can generate Plinian eruptions similar in magnitude to the Chaitén 2008 and Askja 1875 events. Such eruptions would mainly produce pyroclastic fallout covering a minimum area of 1,700?km² ESE of the volcano, where important touristic, agricultural and military activities are based. As for the 1995/1996 eruption, our field data indicate that complex wind patterns were critical in controlling the dispersion of the eruptive clouds, developing sheared, commonly bilobate plumes.     

Trajectories of protection: Protectorates of Aborigines in early 19th century Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand

Abstract: This article tracks the passage of Aboriginal protection, as a contested imperial institution, from the Caribbean to Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand via the Cape Colony and Britain. In doing so, it reconfigures the historical geographies of colonial philanthropy, and of those individuals who sought to implement and resist it, as a set of specific, intersecting trajectories. These trajectories, of people, ideas and texts, both connected and remade multiple colonial places. The article also advocates positioning the contemporary politics of the colonial past in Britain, Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand, within a wider, trans‐imperial, set of connections.     

Coincidental Compositional and Orbital Correspondences Among Some Ordinary Chondrites: No Strong Evidence for Meteoroid Streams

Previous attempts to assign ordinary chondrites (OC) to meteoroid streams have been unsuccessful because the orbits of the proposed members had different radiants and, in some cases, the meteorites had significantly different cosmic-ray exposure (CRE) ages. Using more conservative criteria, we have identified four pairs of equilibrated OC (L6 Nejo, Salem; L6 Perpeti, Vouillé; L6 Drake Creek, Forsyth; H5 Okabe, Kerilis) wherein each member of the pair could conceivably have been derived from the same immediate precursor body (IPB). The members of each pair are of the same chondrite group and petrologic type; they have similar CRE ages and fell within 1 calendar day of each other (in different years). Because there is a moderate range in oxidation state (represented by mean olivine Fa) among equilibrated OC in each group, similarities in this intrinsic geochemical property between the members of two of the proposed pairs offer some support for the hypothesis that these rocks were derived from the same IPB. If the pairs are genuine, their precursor bodies were probably meter-size near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) with aphelia within or beyond the Main Asteroid Belt. Fragmentation of such NEAs is most likely to have occurred near aphelia; in principle, the ejecta could have spread somewhat along the NEAs’ orbits and collided with Earth on approximately the same calendar date but in different years. However, literature data show that, although ～670 meteorites with masses ≥10 kg reach the Earth’s surface each year, only five or six falls (typically in this mass range) are observed and recovered. This suggests that the chances of recovering more than one meteorite from a disrupted meter-size body in Earth-crossing orbit are small. It thus seems likely that the similar properties of the proposed OC pairs are due to coincidence.     

Model studies of dense water overflows in the Faroese Channels

The overflow of dense water from the Nordic Seas through the Faroese Channel system was investigated through combined laboratory experiments and numerical simulations using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model. In the experimental study, a scaled, topographic representation of the Faroe-Shetland Channel, Wyville-Thomson Basin and Ridge and Faroe Bank Channel seabed bathymetry was constructed and mounted in a rotating tank. A series of parametric experiments was conducted using dye-tracing and drogue-tracking techniques to investigate deep-water overflow pathways and circulation patterns within the modelled region. In addition, the structure of the outflowing dense bottom water was investigated through density profiling along three cross-channel transects located in the Wyville-Thomson Basin and the converging, up-sloping approach to the Faroe Bank Channel. Results from the dye-tracing studies demonstrate a range of parametric conditions under which dense water overflow across the Wyville-Thomson Ridge is shown to occur, as defined by the Burger number, a non-dimensional length ratio and a dimensionless dense water volume flux parameter specified at the Faroe-Shetland Channel inlet boundary. Drogue-tracking measurements reveal the complex nature of flow paths and circulations generated in the modelled topography, particularly the development of a large anti-cyclonic gyre in the Wyville-Thompson Basin and up-sloping approach to the Faroe Bank Channel, which diverts the dense water outflow from the Faroese shelf towards the Wyville-Thomson Ridge, potentially promoting dense water spillage across the ridge itself. The presence of this circulation is also indicated by associated undulations in density isopycnals across the Wyville-Thomson Basin. Numerical simulations of parametric test cases for the main outflow pathways and density structure in a similarly-scaled Faroese Channels model domain indicate excellent qualitative agreement with the experimental observations and measurements. In addition, the comparisons show that strong temporal variability in the predicted outflow pathways and circulations have a strong influence in regulating the Faroe Bank Channel and Wyville-Thomson Ridge overflows, as well as in determining the overall response in the Faroese Channels to changes in the Faroe-Shetland Channel inlet boundary conditions.     

Efficient Storage of Large MODFLOW Models

We present a methodology for storing the bulkier portions of a set of MODFLOW input and output files in a compressed binary format using the HDF5 library. This approach results in compression ratios of up to 99% with no significant time penalty. The highly compressed format is particularly beneficial when dealing with large regional models or Monte Carlo simulations. The strategy is focused on the list‐ and array‐based portions of the input files including the cell property and recharge arrays, and is compatible with models containing parameters, including pilot points. The utilities are based on a modified version of the MODFLOW code and are, therefore, compatible with any standard MODFLOW simulation. We present used cases and instructions on how to use the utilities.     

Compact groups in theory and practice – III. Compact groups of galaxies in the Sixth Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

We present the largest publicly available catalogue of compact groups (CGs) of galaxies identified using the original selection criteria of Hickson, selected from the Sixth Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS DR6). We identify 2297 CGs down to a limiting magnitude of   r = 18 (∼0.24 groups  deg⁻²), and 74 791 CGs down to a limiting magnitude of   r = 21 (∼6.7 groups  deg⁻²). This represents 0.9 per cent of all galaxies in the SDSS DR6 at these magnitude levels. Contamination due to gross photometric errors has been removed from the bright sample of groups, and we estimate it is present in the large sample at the 14 per cent level. Spectroscopic information is available for 4131 galaxies in the bright catalogue (43 per cent completeness), and we find that the median redshift of these groups is   z _med= 0.09  . The median line-of-sight (LOS) velocity dispersion within the CGs from the bright catalogue is  σ_LOS≃ 230 km s⁻¹  , and their typical intergalactic separations are of the order of 50–100 kpc. We show that the fraction of groups with interloping galaxies identified as members is in good agreement with the predictions from our previous study of a mock galaxy catalogue, and we demonstrate how to select CGs such that the interloper fraction is well defined and minimized. This observational data set is ideal for large statistical studies of CGs, the role of environment on galaxy evolution and the effect of galaxy interactions in determining galaxy morphology.     

Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

The Yakima River Reservoir system supplies water to ~180,000 irrigated hectares through the operation of five reservoirs with cumulative storage of ~30% mean annual river flow. Runoff is derived mostly from winter precipitation in the Cascade Mountains, much of which is stored as snowpack. Climate change is expected to result in earlier snowmelt runoff and reduced summer flows. Effects of these changes on irrigated agriculture were simulated using a reservoir system model coupled to a hydrological model driven by downscaled scenarios from 20 climate models archived by the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. We find earlier snowmelt results in increased water delivery curtailments. Historically, the basin experienced substantial water shortages in 14% of years. Without adaptations, for IPCC A1B global emission scenarios, water shortages increase to 27% (13% to 49% range) in the 2020s, to 33% in the 2040s, and 68% in the 2080s. For IPCC B1 emissions scenarios, shortages occur in 24% (7% to 54%) of years in the 2020s, 31% in the 2040s and 43% in the 2080s. Historically unprecedented conditions where senior water rights holders suffer shortfalls occur with increasing frequency in both A1B and B1 scenarios. Economic losses include expected annual production declines of 5%–16%, with greater probabilities of operating losses for junior water rights holders.