Trends in heat-related mortality in the United States, 1975–2004

This study addresses the long-term trends in heat-related mortality across 29 US metropolitan areas from 1975 to 2004 to discern the spatial patterns and temporal trends in heat vulnerability. Mortality data have been standardized to account for population trends, and seasonal and interannual variability. On days when a city experienced an “oppressive” air mass, mean anomalous mortality was calculated, along with the likelihood that oppressive days led to a mortality response at least one standard deviation above the baseline value. Results show a general decline in heat-related mortality from the 1970s to 1990s, after which the decline seems to have abated. The likelihood of oppressive days leading to significant increases in mortality has shown less of a decline. The number of oppressive days has stayed the same or increased at most metropolitan areas. With US homes near saturation in terms of air-conditioning availability, an aging population is still significantly vulnerable to heat events.     

Seismic collapse capacity of basic inelastic structures vulnerable to the P‐delta effect

The collapse capacity of earthquake‐excited inelastic nondeteriorating SDOF systems, which are vulnerable to the destabilizing effect of gravity loads (P‐delta effect), is evaluated. In this paper, the collapse capacity of the system subjected to a ground motion is defined as spectral acceleration at its initial structural period, at which the structure becomes unstable. Characteristic structural parameters, which affect the collapse capacity, are identified. Ground motion records of the ATC 63 far‐field set characterize severe earthquake excitation. In extensive incremental dynamic analyses studies, the impact of these parameters and of aleatory uncertainties on the collapse capacity is assessed and quantified. Median and percentile collapse capacities are plotted against the initial structural period leading to collapse capacity spectra. Nonlinear regression analyses are applied to derive analytical expressions of the design collapse capacity spectra and collapse fragility curves. The ultimate objective is to provide collapse capacity spectra for easy application and yet sufficient accurate assessment of the dynamic stability of flexible multistory buildings. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dimensionless cosmology

Although it is well known that any consideration of the variations of fundamental constants should be restricted to their dimensionless combinations, the literature on variations of the gravitational constant G is entirely dimensionfull. To illustrate applications of this to cosmology, we explicitly give a dimensionless version of the parameters of the standard cosmological model, and describe the physics of both Big Bang Nucleosynthesis and recombination in a dimensionless manner. Rigorously determining how to talk about the model in a way which avoids physical dimensions is a requirement for proceeding with a calculation to constrain time-varying fundamental constants. The issue that appears to have been missed in many studies is that in cosmology the strength of gravity is bound up in the cosmological equations, and the epoch at which we live is a crucial part of the model. We argue that it is useful to consider the hypothetical situation of communicating with another civilization (with entirely different units), comparing only dimensionless constants, in order to decide if we live in a Universe governed by precisely the same physical laws. In this thought experiment, we would also have to compare epochs, which can be defined by giving the value of any one of the evolving cosmological parameters. By setting things up carefully in this way one can avoid inconsistent results when considering variable constants, caused by effectively fixing more than one parameter today. We show examples of this effect by considering microwave background anisotropies, being careful to maintain dimensionlessness throughout. We present Fisher matrix calculations to estimate how well the fine structure constants for electromagnetism and gravity can be determined with future microwave background experiments. We highlight how one can be misled by simply adding G to the usual cosmological parameter set.     

Feeding behavior in Caribbean surgeonfishes varies across fish size,algal abundance,and habitat characteristics

Feeding behavior of coral reef fishes often determines their species‐specific ecological roles. We studied the two most common Caribbean surgeonfishes (Acanthurus coeruleus and Acanthurus tractus) to examine their species‐specific grazing rates and feeding preferences and how these differed with environmental context. We quantified the feeding activity of both surgeonfishes at four spur and groove reefs in the Florida Keys, USA, that varied in fish abundance, rugosity, algal community composition, and sediment loading. Overall, A. tractus fed twice as fast as A. coeruleus. Both species selected for turf algae but avoided feeding on turf algae that had become laden with sediment. Selectivity for upright macroalgae was more complex with A. tractus targeting Dictyota spp., while A. coeruleus avoided Dictyota spp. relative to the alga's abundance. Both species selected for epiphytes growing on other organisms such as macroalgae and sponges. However, several of these feeding patterns changed with ontogeny. For example, larger individuals of both species fed more frequently on long, sediment‐laden algal turf and less frequently on Dictyota spp. compared to smaller sized individuals. In addition, A. tractus also increased its preference for upright calcareous algae as they attained larger sizes. Overall, the disparity in feeding preferences of surgeonfishes likely indicates subtle differences in species‐specific ecological roles. Both A. coeruleus and A. tractus likely prevent development of turf algae and thus maintain algal communities in the early stages of succession. Additionally, A. tractus may also help reduce macroalgal abundance by targeting common macroalgal species.     

Large wood inhibits debris flow runout in forested southeast Alaska

Due to their potentially long runout, debris flows are a major hazard and an important geomorphic process in mountainous environments. Understanding runout is therefore essential to minimize risk in the near-term and interpret the pace and pattern of debris flow erosion and deposition over geomorphic timescales. Many debris flows occur in forested landscapes where they mobilize large volumes of large woody debris (LWD) in addition to sediment, but few studies have quantitatively documented the effects of LWD on runout. Here, we analyze recent and historic debris flows in southeast Alaska, a mountainous, forested system with minimal human alteration. Sixteen debris flows near Sitka triggered on August 18, 2015 or more recently had volumes of 80 to 25 000 m³ and limited mobility compared to a global compilation of similarly-sized debris flows. Their deposits inundated 31% of the planimetric area, and their runout lengths were 48% of that predicted by the global dataset. Depositional slopes were 6°–26°, and mobility index, defined as the ratio of horizontal runout to vertical elevation change, ranged from 1.2 to 3, further indicating low mobility. In the broader southeast Alaskan region consisting of Chichagof and Baranof Islands, remote sensing-based analysis of 1061 historic debris flows showed that mobility index decreased from 2.3–2.5 to 1.4–1.8 as average forest age increased from 0 to 416 years. We therefore interpret that the presence of LWD within a debris flow and standing trees, stumps, and logs in the deposition zone inhibit runout, primarily through granular phenomena such as jamming due to force chains. Calibration of debris flow runout models should therefore incorporate the ecologic as well as geologic setting, and feedbacks between debris flows and vegetation likely control the transport of sediment and organic material through steep, forested catchments over geomorphic time. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of sudden critical and supercritical hydraulic loads on backward erosion piping: small-scale experiments

Acta Geotechnica - Backward erosion piping is an important failure mechanism for cohesive water-retaining structures which are founded on a sandy aquifer. This paper studies the effect of the...     

Elastic analysis of ground movements around a tunnel considering a buoyant lining moving upwards

A complex variable solution is derived for the ground movements around a tunnel considering the lining at different positions in the drilled hole in a linear elastic half-plane. The soil displacements for three different convergence patterns are presented and compared. It is shown that the surface settlement trough will become flatter and wider when the lining moves upwards; the horizontal displacements are more concentrated in the region below the lining; and the region influenced by displacements is wider. Most calculated settlement troughs can be well represented by Gaussian curves with simple parameters, but the obtained width parameters are larger than the traditional empirical values. The rigorous solution can be used as a simple tool to understand the fundamental mechanism of the lining buoyancy problem and as a benchmark for numerical procedures based on more sophisticated models. The importance of buoyancy effect on the displacement field should be taken into account.     

Predicting site-specific storm wave run-up

Natural Hazards - Storm wave run-up causes beach erosion, wave overtopping, and street flooding. Extreme runup estimates may be improved, relative to predictions from general empirical formulae...     

Nanogeochemistry of hydrothermal magnetite

Magnetite from hydrothermal ore deposits can contain up to tens of thousands of parts per million (ppm) of elements such as Ti, Si, V, Al, Ca, Mg, Na, which tend to either structurally incorporate into growth and sector zones or form mineral micro- to nano-sized particles. Here, we report micro- to nano-structural and chemical data of hydrothermal magnetite from the Los Colorados iron oxide–apatite deposit in Chile, where magnetite displays both types of trace element incorporation. Three generations of magnetites (X–Z) were identified with concentrations of minor and trace elements that vary significantly: SiO₂, from below detection limit (bdl) to 3.1 wt%; Al₂O₃, 0.3–2.3 wt%; CaO, bdl–0.9 wt%; MgO, 0.02–2.5 wt%; TiO₂, 0.1–0.4 wt%; MnO, 0.04–0.2 wt%; Na₂O, bdl–0.4 wt%; and K₂O, bdl–0.4 wt%. An exception is V₂O₃, which is remarkably constant, ranging from 0.3 to 0.4 wt%. Six types of crystalline nanoparticles (NPs) were identified by means of transmission electron microscopy in the trace element-rich zones, which are each a few micrometres wide: (1) diopside, (2) clinoenstatite; (3) amphibole, (4) mica, (5) ulvöspinel, and (6) Ti-rich magnetite. In addition, Al-rich nanodomains, which contain 2–3 wt% of Al, occur within a single crystal of magnetite. The accumulation of NPs in the trace element-rich zones suggest that they form owing to supersaturation from a hydrothermal fluid, followed by entrapment during continuous growth of the magnetite surface. It is also concluded that mineral NPs promote exsolution of new phases from the mineral host, otherwise preserved as structurally bound trace elements. The presence of abundant mineral NPs in magnetite points to a complex incorporation of trace elements during growth, and provides a cautionary note on the interpretation of micron-scale chemical data of magnetite.