Regional bivariate modeling of droughts using L-comoments and copulas

The regional bivariate modeling of drought characteristics using the copulas provides valuable information for water resources management and drought risk assessment. The regional frequency analysis (RFA) can specify the similar sites within a region using L-comoments approach. One of the important steps in the RFA is estimating regional parameters of the copula function. In the present study, an optimization-based method along with the adjusted charged system search are introduced and applied to estimate the regional parameters of the copula models. The capability of the proposed methodology is illustrated by copula functions on drought events. Three commonly used copulas containing Clayton, Frank and Gumbel are employed to derive the joint distribution of drought severity and duration. The result of the new method are compared to the method of moments and after applying several goodness-of-fit tests, the results indicate that the new method provides higher accuracy than the classic one. Furthermore, the results of the upper tail dependence coefficient indicate that the Gumbel copula is the best-fitted copula among the other ones for modeling drought characteristics.     

Geostatistical analysis of soil moisture measurements and remotely sensed data at different spatial scales

The European remote sensing satellite (ERS-2) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data was used for temporal monitoring of soil moisture at Sukhothai, Thailand. Higher correlations were found between the observed soil moisture and the radar backscattering coefficient. The soil moisture distribution shows great variation in space and time due to its stochastic nature. In order to obtain a better understanding of the nature and causes of spatial variation of soil moisture, the extensive soil moisture measurements observed in Thailand and also remotely sensed ERS-2 SAR data were used for geostatistical analysis. The observed soil moisture shows seasonal variations with mean varying from 3.33 %v/v (dry season) to 33.44 %v/v (wet season). The spatial geostatistical structure also shows clear seasonal variations in the geostatistical characteristics such as range and sill. The sills vary from 1.00 (%v/v)² for the driest day to 107.57 (%v/v)² for one of the wet days. The range or the correlation lengths varies between 46.5 and 149.8 m for the wettest and driest periods. The nugget effect does not show strong seasonal pattern or trend but the dry periods usually have a smaller nugget effect than the wet periods. The spherical variogram model fits the sample variograms very well in the case of soil moisture observations while the exponential model fits those of the remotely sensed data. The ranges observed from the observed soil moisture data and remotely sensed data at the same resolution are very similar. Resolution degradation affects the geostatistical structure of the data by reducing the sills, and increasing the ranges.     

Integrated methodology for flood risk assessment and application in urban communities of Pakistan

Flood disasters and its consequent damages are on the rise globally. Pakistan has been experiencing an increase in flood frequency and severity along with resultant damages in the past. In addition to the regular practices of loss and damage estimation, current focus is on risk assessment of hazard-prone communities. Risk measurement is complex as scholars engaged in disaster science and management use different quantitative models with diverse interpretations. This study tries to provide clarity in conceptualizing disaster risk and proposes a risk assessment methodology with constituent components such as hazard, vulnerability (exposure and sensitivity) and coping/adaptive capacity. Three communities from different urban centers in Pakistan have been selected based on high flood frequency and intensity. A primary survey was conducted in selected urban communities to capture data on a number of variables relating to flood hazard, vulnerability and capacity to compute flood risk index. Households were categorized into different risk levels, such as can manage risk, can survive and cope, and cannot cope. It was found that risk levels varied significantly across the households of the three communities. Metropolitan city was found to be highly vulnerable as compared to smaller cities due to weak capacity. Households living in medium town had devised coping mechanisms to manage risk. The proposed methodology is tested and found operational for risk assessment of flood-prone areas and communities irrespective of locations and countries.     

The origin of tin deposits in the Mount Wells region,Pine Creek Geosyncline,Northern Territory

Tabular steeply dipping cassiterite‐bearing lodes in the Mount Wells region are hosted by lower greenschist fades metasediment of the Pine Creek Geosyncline within the contact aureole of late orogenic granitoids. The latter are predominantly I‐type, but S‐type phases are developed near the sediment‐granitoid contact.

Quartz, cassiterite, pyrite, arsenopyrite, chalcopyrite and pyrrhotite are the main minerals. Two types of lodes are present: (i) Sn‐quartz lodes containing 5–10 vol% sulphide minerals; and (ii) Sn‐sulphide lodes containing ～ 70 vol% sulphide minerals. At the surface, the former appear as normal quartz veins and the latter as hematite‐quartz breccia resulting from the collapse of original sulphide‐rich lodes as a consequence of volume reduction due to oxidation and leaching.

Two stages of quartz veining are recognized in both types of lodes. Cassiterite is present in stage I while stage II is composed of barren quartz with minor pyrite. Late stage III carbonate veinlets are present in Sn‐sulphide lodes. The lode‐wallrock contact is sharp with weak alteration effects confined to the fringe of the lodes. The alteration minerals include sericite, quartz, tourmaline, chlorite, pyrite and minor K‐feldspar.

Four types of fluid inclusions are present in vein quartz and cassiterite: Type A (CO₂ ± H₂O ± CH₄); Type B (H₂O+～ 20% vapour); Type C (H₂O+ < 15% vapour) and Type D (H₂O+ < 15% vapour + NaCl). Early ‘primary’ inclusions represented by Types A and B are present in stage I only and have a well‐defined temperature mode at ～300°C and a salinity range of 1–20 wt% eq NaCl. Types C and D inclusions are ‘secondary’ in stage I and primary in stage II and have a temperature mode at 120–160°C and salinities from about 1 to more than 26 wt% eq NaCl. Variable H₂O‐CO₂ ratios of Type A inclusions and homogenization in CO₂ or H₂O phase at near identical temperature indicate entrapment at the H₂O‐CO₂ solvus and define a pressure of ～ 100 MPa. The melting sequence of frozen inclusions suggests that the ore fluids were mainly H₂O‐CO₂‐CH₄‐Na‐Ca‐Cl brines. This is also confirmed by Raman Laser Spectrometry.

Oxygen and sulphur isotope data are consistent with a magmatic origin of the ore fluids. The δD values are up to 20%0 higher than those expected for magmatic fluids and probably resulted from interaction of the latter with the carbonaceous strata. This interpretation is supported by δ¹³C data on the fluid inclusion CO₂.

Fluid inclusions, stable isotope and mineralogical data are used to approximate the physico‐chemical parameters of the ore fluids which are as follows: T 300°C, m Cl～2, fO₂ ～ 10^‐35, mSS ～ 0.01, Sn ～ 1 ppm, Cu ～ 1 ppm and pH ～ 5.5.

It is suggested that fluids of granitic parentage interacted with the enclosing sediment and picked up CO₂, CH₄ and possibly Ca. The granitic phases became reduced due to this interaction and developed S‐type characteristics. Tin was probably partitioned into the CH₄‐bearing reduced fluids. At some stage the fluid overpressure exceeded the lithostatic lode enforcing failure of the carapace and the intruded rocks by hydraulic fracturing causing CH₄ and CO₂ loss resulting in the precipitation of the ore minerals.     

Understanding nesting ecology and behaviour of green marine turtles at Setiu,Terengganu, Malaysia

In this paper, we emphasize the importance of understanding the nesting ecology and nesting behaviour of green marine turtles (Chelonia mydas). Data were collected from 2007 until 2012 from nesting beaches at Setiu Terengganu, Malaysia. We focused on one of the beaches, Telaga Papan, based on data collected in 2012. We recorded the distribution of nesting areas, the emergence hour and the correlation between successful nesting attempts and false crawls. Telaga Papan had a significantly higher distribution of green marine turtle nesting compared with the other five beaches (ANOVA, F_5,42 = 8.874, P < 0.01, mean = 36.750 ± 3.727). The highest number of successful nesting attempts was recorded in 2012 (mean = 28.714). A majority of the species landed between 22:00 and 23:59 h (25%). There was a strong correlation between successful nesting attempts and false crawls (r_s = 0.883, P = 0.02). Based on these findings on the nesting ecology and nesting behaviour of green marine turtles, we suggest that scientific research, strict monitoring, awareness programs and policy implementation should be carried out proactively. Such activities are necessary to reduce the anthropogenic pressures at the nesting beaches as well as to ensure more successful nesting attempts of green marine turtles in Setiu.     

Biotic response to the latest Cenomanian drowning and OAE2: A case study from the Eastern Desert of Egypt

The changes in macrofauna and microfauna, before, during and after the latest Cenomanian global Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE2), from the Eastern Desert of Egypt are documented, along with an inferred paleoenvironment. The age of the studied OAE2 interval is constrained by the last occurrence of the marker calcareous nannofossils species Axopodorhabdus albianus along with the previously identified positive δ¹³C excursion from the coeval ammonite Vascoceras cauvini Zone (= Neocardioceras juddii Zone), enabling correlation with the peak ‘b’ of the OAE2. Based on the studied microfaunal assemblages, a warm shallow restricted lagoonal environment with mesotrophic conditions and strong seasonality is inferred. The presence of a rare ammonite (and ostracods) attest to the intermittent introduction of marine waters within this inner ramp setting. In terms of sequence stratigraphy, two 3rd order depositional sequences are recorded. The top surface of the first depositional sequence, at the sequence boundary, SB Ce 5 (the start of the OAE2), is marked by an abrupt faunal change with reduced abundances of the macrofaunal elements. This is in tune with other Egyptian records of relatively smaller loss (10 %) at the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary, as compared to much higher numbers (53–79% of species), globally. This faunal (biotic bottleneck) and lithological change (from siliciclastic-dominated deposits to a largely carbonate-dominated one) at the SB Ce 5 is attributed as a response to the latest Cenomanian drowning (the highest sea-level during the Phanerozoic), that also resulted in the formation of carbonate platform.     

Investigation of Failed Slopes Based on a New Method of Back Analysis in Rock Masses: A Case Study

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - Small variation in shear strength parameters results in remarkable changes in the safety factor (SF) of a rock slope. In this regard, rock mass strength of...