Analysis of solutions to the inverse problem on the retrieval of the microstructure of stratospheric aerosol from satellite measurements

A statistical ensemble of microphysical parameters of the background stratospheric aerosol at altitudes of 15 to 30 km is modeled on the basis of experimental data. The aerosol attenuation coefficients (AACs) in the wavelength range 0.38–16.3 μm are calculated for all realizations of the ensemble by algorithms of the Mie theory. Analysis of correlations between the AACs and the microphysical parameters indicate that the AAC correlates most strongly with the total volume V and area S of all particles. The errors of determining the microphysical parameters from AAC measurements are analyzed via the method of linear regression. It is shown that, if the AAC is measured with an error of 5%, the errors of determining both the particle size distribution (PSD) for particles with sizes of 0.4 to 4 μm and the parameter S are an order of magnitude smaller than the prior uncertainty, whereas the error of determining V is two orders of magnitude smaller than the prior uncertainty. Schemes of AAC measurements with the SAGE III, ISAMS, CLAES, HALOE instruments and an IR interferometer in the visible and IR regions are discussed. It is shown that combining the schemes makes it possible to extend the range of particle sizes for which the PSD is retrieved with a satisfactory accuracy and to increase the accuracy of determining S and V substantially and the accuracy of determining the total number of particles N _opt to a lesser extent. Examples of interpreting AAC measurements carried out simultaneously with the SAGE III and HALOE instruments within the same spatial region are presented. A systematic discrepancy between vertical profiles of S and V obtained from SAGE III and HALOE measurements is revealed.     

Forced Waves in a Bounded Basin with One Thermocline

Within the framework of the linear theory taking into account the action of the Coriolis force, we study waves induced in a continuously stratified fluid with one thermocline by periodic variations of pressure on the free surface. The fluid fills a bounded basin of constant depth. We establish the dependences of the wave amplitudes and wave velocities on the period of disturbing pressure. The sequence of transformations of generated waves from the barotropic character of motion to baroclinic depending on changes in the period of disturbing pressure is studied in detail.     

Prediction of hydrological phenomena using self-organizing mathematical models

The paper considers the application of self-organizing models, specifically, the method of grouped arguments consideration (MGAC), to forecast short and non-stationary time series of observations in the ocean. A sequence of operations for the treatment of observational series is suggested. To assess its efficiency, we have used mean monthly oxygen concentration data collected in the surface and near-bottom layers of the Taganrog Bay. It is shown that the application of the MGAC model allows one to reduce by two times the root-mean-square error of that of the series prediction by five points, in comparison with the Jenkins-Box regressional model. It has been concluded that the predictors' non-linear functions may be effectively used in the treatment of short samplings. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Refraction-Diffraction Mathematical Model for Waves With Lateral Energy Transmission Mechanism and Its Verification

To solve problems concerning wave elements and wave propagation, an effective way is the wave energy balance equation, which is widely applied in oceanography and ocean dynamics for its simple computation. The present papaer advances wave energy balance equations considering lateral energy transmission and energy loss as the governing equation for the study of wave refraction-diffraction. For the mathematical model, numerical simulation is made by means of difference method, and the result is verified with two examples.