Coastal sea level variability in the US West Coast Ocean Forecast System (WCOFS)

Sea level variability along the US West Coast is analyzed using multi-year time series records from tide gauges and a high-resolution regional ocean model, the base of the West Coast Ocean Forecast System (WCOFS). One of the metrics utilized is the frequency of occurrences when model prediction is within 0.15 m from the observed sea level, F. A target level of F?=?90% is set by an operational agency. A combination of the tidal sea level from a shallow water inverse model, inverted barometer (IB) term computed using surface air pressure from a mesoscale atmospheric model, and low-pass filtered sea level from WCOFS representing the effect of coastal ocean dynamics (DYN) provides the most straightforward approach to reaching levels F>80%. The IB and DYN components each add between 5 and 15% to F. Given the importance of the DYN term bringing F closer to the operational requirement and its role as an indicator of the coastal ocean processes on scales from days to interannual, additional verification of the WCOFS subtidal sea level is provided in terms of the model-data correlation, standard deviation of the band-pass filtered (2–60 days) time series, the annual cycle amplitude, and alongshore sea level coherence in the range of 5–120-day periods. Model-data correlation in sea level increases from south to north along the US coast. The rms amplitude of model sea level variability in the 2–60-day band and its annual amplitude are weaker than observed north of 42 N, in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) coast region. The alongshore coherence amplitude and phase patterns are similar in the model and observations. Availability of the multi-year model solution allows computation and analysis of spatial maps of the coherence amplitude. For a reference location in the Southern California Bight, relatively short-period sea level motions (near 10 days) are incoherent with those north of the Santa Barbara Channel (in part, due to coastal trapped wave scattering and/or dissipation). At a range of periods around 60 days, the coastal sea level in Southern California is coherent with the sea surface height (SSH) variability over the shelf break in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia, more than with the coastal SSH at the same latitudes.     

Deriving fragility functions from bilinearized capacity curves for earthquake scenario modelling using the conditional spectrum

The development of fragility curves to perform seismic scenario-based risk assessment requires a fully probabilistic procedure in order to account for uncertainties at each step of the computation. This is especially true when developing fragility curves conditional on an Intensity Measure that is directly available from a ground-motion prediction equation. In this study, we propose a new derivation method that uses realistic spectra instead of design spectral shapes or uniform hazard spectra and allows one to easily account for the features of the site-specific hazard that influences the fragility, without using non-linear dynamic analysis. The proposed method has been applied to typical school building types in the city of Basel (Switzerland) and the results have been compared to the standard practice in Europe. The results confirm that fragility curves are scenario dependent and are particularly sensitive to the magnitude of the earthquake scenario. The same background theory used for the derivation of the fragility curves has allowed an innovative method to be proposed for the conversion of fragility curves to a common IM (i.e. spectral acceleration or PGA). This conversion is the only way direct comparisons of fragility curves can be made and is useful when inter-period correlation cannot be used in scenario loss assessment. Moreover, such conversion is necessary to compare and verify newly developed curves against those from previous studies. Conversion to macroseismic intensity is also relevant for the comparison between mechanical-based and empirical fragility curves, in order to detect possible biases.     

Remote Sensing of Eupatorium Adenophorum Spreng Based on HJ-A Satellite Data

In the southwest of China, one of the greatest threats to local ecosystem is the area expansion of an invasive species, i.e., Eupatorium adenophorum Spreng (EAS). In this study, the remote-sensing technology was used to detect and map the spatial distribution of EAS in Guizhou Province, China. A series of vegetation indices, including normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), simple ratio index (SRI) and atmospherically resistant vegetation index (ARVI), were used to identify EAS from HJ-A Chninese satellite data. According to the analysis results of fieldworks from March 21 to 22, 2009, it was found that the vegetation index of {1.9589 ≤ SRI ≤ 4.1095}∩{0.2359 ≤ ARVI ≤ 0.5193} was the optimal remote-sensing parameter for identifying EAS from HJ-A data. According to the spatial distribution of EAS estimated from HJ-A data, it was found that EAS was rather more in southwest of Guizhou Province than in northeast. EAS became sparse from southwest to northeast gradually, and the central Guizhou Province was the ecological corridor linking EAS in southwest to that in northeast. By comparison with validated data collected by the government of Guizhou Province, it was found that the uncertainty of remote-sensing method was 18.52%, 29.31%, 8.77% and 9.46% in grassland, forest, farmland and others respectively, and the mean uncertainty was 13.29%. Owing to the lower height of EAS than many plants in forest, the uncertainty of EAS was the greatest in forest than that in grassland, farmland and so on.     

Analysis of Circular Elastic Plate Resting on Pasternak Foundation by Strain Energy Approach

In this paper, an analytical expression for the deflection of a thin circular elastic plate resting on the Pasternak foundation is derived by adopting the strain energy approach. The parametric study is carried out to observe the location of the plate lift-off and the variation of the deflection profiles for comparing the variation pattern reported in the literature based on an approximate solution technique. It is found that the radial distance of the point of lift-off of the plate decreases with increase in the values of both the shear modulus and the modulus of subgrade reaction of the foundation soil; the reduction being more for their lower values. It is also observed that the variation in deflection of the plate at any radial distance due to change in soil subgrade conditions is significant for lower values of modulus of subgrade reaction.     

Evidence for the occurrence of hydrogeochemical processes in the groundwater of Khoy plain,northwestern Iran,using ionic ratios and geochemical modeling

Rapid population growth, industrialization, and agricultural expansion in the Khoy area (northwestern Iran) have led to its dependence on groundwater and degradation of groundwater quality. This study attempts to decipher the major processes and factors that degrade the groundwater quality of the Khoy plain. For this purpose, 54 groundwater samples from unconfined and confined aquifers of the plain were collected in July 2017 and analyzed for major cations and anions (Na, K, Ca, Mg, HCO₃, SO_4, and Cl), minor ions (NO₃ and F), and Al. Magnesium and bicarbonate were identified as the dominant cation and anion, respectively. Several ionic ratios and geochemical modeling using PHREEQC indicated that the most important hydrogeochemical processes to affect groundwater quality in the plain were weathering and dissolution of evaporitic and silicate minerals, mixing, and ion exchange. There were smaller effects from evaporation and anthropogenic factors (e.g., industries). Results showed that the high salinity of the groundwater in the northeast area of the plain was due to the high solubility of the evaporitic minerals, e.g., halite and gypsum. Reverse ion exchange and the contribution of mineral dissolution were more significant than ion exchange in the northeastern part of the plain. Elevated salinity of the groundwater in the southeast was attributed mostly to reverse ion exchange and somewhat to evaporation.     

Evaluation of the effect of river style framework on water quality: application of geomorphological factors

The Tarwal River basin with an area of 6560.20 km² is located in the eastern part of Iranian Kurdistan Province. This river crosses the Qorveh and Dehgolan plains and joins the Ghezel Ozan River in Zanjan Province. The importance of this river as a source for drinking water and agricultural and industrial uses in the region necessitates the need for research in this field. The main purpose of this study is to identify the natural features of the riverbed from the perspective of river geomorphology and to investigate their impact on water quality and river self-purification capacity. To achieve this, the river style framework was employed. To investigate the effects of each style framework on the river, a total of 20 samples from the entrance and outlet of styles were obtained using Impact Assessment method and sampling standards which were later analyzed for their quality parameters including T, pH, EC, TDS, TSS, Na, Ca, Mg, K, Cl, F, NO₂, NO₃, SO₄, PO₄, DO, COD and BOD. The results indicated that the changes in the styles lead to changes in water quality and the impact of each style is greater on the physical parameters than the chemical parameters. The river self-purification capacity varied depending on the style. The maximum and the minimum self-purifications occurred in fine-grained Anabranching and low-sinuosity fine-grained styles, respectively.     

Non-linear Responses of a Coastal Aquatic Ecosystem to Large Decreases in Nutrient and Organic Loadings

Between 1991 and 2000, Boston Harbor, a bay–estuary in the northeast USA, experienced a decrease in loadings of total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and particulate organic carbon (PC) of between ∼80% and ∼90%. The average concentrations of TN and TP in the harbor water column were decreased in linear proportion to the loadings. The changes to the chlorophyll-a (chl-a), PC, and bottom water DO concentrations were curvilinear relative to the loadings, with larger changes at low than high loadings. For TN and TP, the starts of the decreases in concentrations coincided with the starts of the decreases in loadings. For the three variables that showed curvilinear responses, the starts of the changes lagged by 2 to 3 years the starts of the decreases in TN loadings. Total suspended solid concentrations and water clarity in the harbor were unchanged. The study shows that for systems such as Boston Harbor, decreases in nutrient loadings will have quite different effects depending on the base loadings to the system.     

Biocalcification in the Eastern Oyster (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Crassostrea virginica)</Emphasis> in Relation to Long-term Trends in Chesapeake Bay pH

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions reduce pH of marine waters due to the absorption of atmospheric CO₂ and formation of carbonic acid. Estuarine waters are more susceptible to acidification because they are subject to multiple acid sources and are less buffered than marine waters. Consequently, estuarine shell forming species may experience acidification sooner than marine species although the tolerance of estuarine calcifiers to pH changes is poorly understood. We analyzed 23 years of Chesapeake Bay water quality monitoring data and found that daytime average pH significantly decreased across polyhaline waters although pH has not significantly changed across mesohaline waters. In some tributaries that once supported large oyster populations, pH is increasing. Current average conditions within some tributaries however correspond to values that we found in laboratory studies to reduce oyster biocalcification rates or resulted in net shell dissolution. Calcification rates of juvenile eastern oysters, Crassostrea virginica, were measured in laboratory studies in a three-way factorial design with 3 pH levels, two salinities, and two temperatures. Biocalcification declined significantly with a reduction of ∼0.5 pH units and higher temperature and salinity mitigated the decrease in biocalcification.     

Between-Population Differences in Multi-stressor Tolerance During Embryo Development in the American Horseshoe Crab, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Limulus polyphemus</Emphasis>

The American horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, is found along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts in genetically isolated populations. Eggs are laid in shoreline beaches that expose developing embryos to combinations of environmental stressors. Whether populations of L. polyphemus differ in multi-stressor tolerance had never been tested. We assessed the multi-stressor tolerance of L. polyphemus embryos from a population in Delaware Bay (DE) and determined whether these differed from the multi-stressor tolerance of embryos from a more southerly Florida Gulf Coast (FGC) population. We monitored the field sediment temperatures and determined multi-stressor tolerance of DE embryos, then compared these to published data for FGC embryos. For multi-stressor tolerance, we assessed development success of embryos in 2-week exposures to 36 full-factorial combinations of temperature (20, 25, 30, 35 °C), salinity (5, 15, and 34 ppt), and ambient O₂ (5, 13, and 21% O₂), followed by 2 weeks in recovery conditions. Sediment temperatures in the DE site ranged from 9.5 to 46 °C, with extended periods exceeding 35 °C. Development success was similar between the DE and FGC populations in 14 of 26 multi-stressor combinations. The DE embryos were generally more successful in conditions that included high temperature or moderate hyposalinity, whereas the FGC embryos were generally more successful in conditions that included extreme hyposalinity. This suggests that although multi-stressor tolerances are generally similar between the two populations, specific differences exist that correlate more with differences in nest microenvironment than latitude.     

On Data Interpolation at Three Croatian Repeat Stations by Using the Spherical Elementary Currents Systems Method

A general mathematical tool for expanding vector systems on a sphere into basis functions, spherical elementary current system (SECS) method, was applied for separation of the geomagnetic field variations into external and internal parts, over a limited region of central and southeastern Europe. The registered variations at three Croatian repeat stations were compared to the variations estimated by the SECS method using the variations from the different sets of observatories. The results of the SECS method were also compared to a simple assumption that the variations at repeat station are equal to those at particular observatory. The relevance of this comparison was to get an insight about the possibility of using the SECS method for estimating the geomagnetic field variations over Croatia. The guidelines for the application of the SECS method for the purpose of reducing repeat station data were also given.