Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.

The Relationship between Global Volcanic Activity and Variations in the Velocity of Earth’s Rotation

Doklady Earth Sciences - Analysis of observations of the Earth’s rotational velocity and volcanic activity of the planet from 1720 until 2015 suggests that higher volcanic activity temporally...     

Mars data analysis program special issue no. 2

An extended photometric time series in the J and K bands of Neptune has a complex appearance which appears to require the simultaneous presence of three periodicities plus related harmonics in the (J-K) color. The most apparent of the fundamental periods is N1 = 17.73 hr. The two others are at N2 = 18.56 and N3 = 18.29 hr and may be the result of amplitude modulation of a previously reported period of 18.42 hr. We interpret the presence of multiple periodicity as indicating that distinct systems of zonal winds exist on the planet. We argue that these wind systems are probably confined to moderate or high latitudes on the basis of recent omages of the planet taken in a spectral region of strong CH₄ absorption, and, by analogy to the zonal wind systems that exist in Jupiter's atmosphere, deduce a period of rotation for the body of the planet of 18.2 ± 0.4 hr. Zonal wind contrasts of up to 109 m sec^?1 are implied in the atmosphere of Neptune by these observations.     

Effectiveness of fast electron retention in the magnetic cavern during disturbance of the magnetic field azimuthal symmetry

The loss rate of fast electrons (with an energy much higher than the energy of the plasma electron thermal motion), when they leave a magnetic cavern during a disturbance of the magnetic field azimuthal symmetry, is studied. The cases of point and volume sources of fast particles have been considered. The plasma density in the cavern is supposed to be low, so that collisions of fast electrons with plasma particles can be neglected. The effect of the electric field on particle motion is neglected because it is assumed that the electric charge particles outgoing from the cavern is compensated by the counter current of plasma conductivity electrons. The dependence of the loss value on the harmonic number and the amplitude of the cavern boundary radius disturbance has been obtained.     

A new Bolivia-USSR astronomical observatory and its astrometric activities

In 1982 a Bolivia-USSR astronomical observatory began its activities near Tarija, Bolivia. Observations of 200 000 faint stars, 2822 bright stars (m6) and Halley's comet have been made with the expedition's astrograph.     

An iterative method for simultaneously computing the synthesis of light and heavy elements

We propose an iterative algorithm for computing the synthesis of heavy elements through the rapid capture of neutrons (r-process) and, at sufficiently high temperatures, protons by simultaneously using two distinct computer codes. One of the codes describes the kinetics of nuclear reactions between light and intermediate chemical elements, which are the source of free neutrons and protons used by the second code to synthesize heavy elements from seed nuclides (isotopes near the iron peak of the cosmic abundance curve). The two codes interact through the neutron and proton reaction channels. We demonstrate the efficiency of our method with an example of the nucleosynthesis in a supernova’s helium shell triggered by the evaporation of neutrons and protons from α particles exposed to the neutrino flux from a collapsing stellar core. In this case, three or four iterations are enough to obtain an almost exact self-consistent solution.     

The intensity distribution of the D3 helium line near the solar limb

Cinematographic observations of the slitless flash spectrum near the D₃ helium line were performed in Yurgamysh at the total solar eclipse of September 22, 1968. The intensity distribution of the D₃ line was obtained with a height resolution of 44 km within the height interval between –3400 and +1700 km above the limb. The absorption line D₃ on the disk near the limb was discovered.     

A Snapshot of the Sun Near Solar Minimum: The Whole Heliosphere Interval

We present an overview of the data and models collected for the Whole Heliosphere Interval, an international campaign to study the three-dimensional solar?Cheliospheric?Cplanetary connected system near solar minimum. The data and models correspond to solar Carrington Rotation 2068 (20 March??C?16 April 2008) extending from below the solar photosphere, through interplanetary space, and down to Earth??s mesosphere. Nearly 200 people participated in aspects of WHI studies, analyzing and interpreting data from nearly 100 instruments and models in order to elucidate the physics of fundamental heliophysical processes. The solar and inner heliospheric data showed structure consistent with the declining phase of the solar cycle. A closely spaced cluster of low-latitude active regions was responsible for an increased level of magnetic activity, while a highly warped current sheet dominated heliospheric structure. The geospace data revealed an unusually high level of activity, driven primarily by the periodic impingement of high-speed streams. The WHI studies traced the solar activity and structure into the heliosphere and geospace, and provided new insight into the nature of the interconnected heliophysical system near solar minimum.     

A crustal suture and lineament in North Africa

A possible suture between an old craton in West Africa and the Arabian—Nubian shield is marked by a persistent zone of Phanerozoic weakness. This zone extends between the Nile and Niger deltas and passes through the Qattara embayment, along the Bahariya fault, through the Kufra basin, between the Tibesti and Jabal al Uwaynat massifs, through the Bahr el Ghazal and Lake Chad areas, and along the Benoue trough.