机器学习在强对流监测预报中的应用进展

近年来,机器学习理论和方法应用蓬勃发展,已在强对流天气监测和预报中广泛应用.各类机器学习算法,包括传统机器学习算法(如随机森林、决策树、支持向量机、神经网络等)和深度学习方法,已在强对流监测、短时临近预报、短期预报领域发挥了积极的重要作用,其应用效果往往明显优于依靠统计特征或者主观经验积累的传统方法.机器学习方法能够更...     

基于卷积门控循环单元神经网络的临近预报方法研究

基于天气雷达资料的外推预报是灾害天气0～2h临近预报基础,本文以业务应用为目标,应用广东省2015-2018年11部新一代多普勒雷达反射率拼图资料,研究了基于卷积门控循环单元神经网络ConvGRU的临近预报方法,采用多损失函数加权与分级加权的策略,基于ConvGRU框架建立三层自编码模型(Encoder-Decoder...     

陕西商洛“6.30”强冰雹过程环境条件及雷达特征分析

利用地面加密资料、多普勒雷达观测资料、ERA5（0.25°×0.25°）逐小时再分析资料,对2022年6月30日出现在陕南东部的一次极端强冰雹天气过程的环境条件及雷达特征进行了分析。结果表明：高空冷涡后部偏北气流带动高层干冷空气南下,叠加在低层西南暖湿气流之上,造成强的位势不稳定层结,为强对流天气发生提供了有利的背景条件。较强的低层水汽输送及辐合、强的对流有效位能、适宜的0 ℃和-20 ℃等温线高度、0～6 km中等强度的垂直风切变为冰雹天气发生提供了有利的环境条件,中高层冷空气及地面冷池触发了强对流天气的发生。适宜的冷暖云厚度有利于雹粒的增大;强的上升气流有利于小雹粒在丰富的过冷水中循环增长。基本反射率因子图上有三体散射,最强反射率因子达65 dBz以上,剖面图上有低层弱回波区、中高层回波悬垂,50 dBz以上的强回波核心位置超过-20 ℃层等温线高度。基本速度图上有中气旋特征,回波顶高对对流发展和减弱有一定指示意义。VIL跃增20 kg/m-2以上对冰雹天气预警有一定的提前量。     

重庆中坝遗址地层Na-Ca元素含量揭示的制盐业兴衰史

Based on dynastic period division and AMS ^14 C dating performed on the sedimentary layers at Zhongba and Yuxi sites,and also the analysis of Na,Ca and Mg of 201 sedimentary samples from Zhongba site and that of Ca and Na in 47 sedimentary samples from Yuxi by using an inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry（ICP）,we found that there were 35 time periods when the contents of Ca and Na were reversely correlated,i.e.whenever the content of Ca was the highest,the content of Na was the lowest,and vice versa. Among them,there were 21 time periods when the content of Ca was the highest,and Na was the lowest,indicating that there were about 21 prosperous periods of ancient salt production at Zhongba site since 3000BC.Other 14 time periods with the peak values of Na while the low values of Ca indicate 14 declined periods of salt production at Zhongba site since 3000BC.The conclusion obtained from the reverse relationship between Ca and Na contents in this paper is consistent with that＂the salt production at Zhongba site started in the new stone age,developed in the Xia and Shang dynasties,reached at the heyday in periods from the Western Zhou to the Han Dynasties,maintained stable to develop in the Tang and the Song dynasties,and gradually declined after the Song Dynasty because the sea salt were conveyed into Sichuan region,however,still had production in the 1970s-1980s＂,educed from archeological exploration.All the above mentioned results indicate that there is a reverse relationship obviously between the contents of Na and Ca in sediments at Zhongba site for ancient salt production,which can be used to reveal the process of rise and decline of ancient salt industry at Zhongba site.     

基于WebGIS的城市公厕信息管理服务的研究

结合武汉市公众导厕与管理系统,讨论了公众导厕与管理系统的平台设计和技术路线选择,阐述了地图予处理、JavaScript地图库引用等关键技术,论述了栽图模块和地图位置算法设计。     

青藏高原夏季风对长江中下游气候的影响及与南亚高压的联系

应用1951～2011年NCEP/NCAR第一套逐月再分析资料和国家气候中心提供的全国160站逐月的降水和气温资料.通过相关分析得出该指数与长江中下游的夏季降水（温度）存在正（负）相关（均通过了95％的显著性检验）.高原夏季风存在明显的年际和年代际变化,1979年是其突变点.高原夏季风与副热带高压以及南亚高压的特征参数之间存在较好的相关性.高原夏季风偏强（弱）时,南亚高压出现青藏高原（伊朗高原）模态,强度减弱（增强）且东伸（西退）,副高增强（减弱）且西伸（东退）.南亚高压的各个特征参数都存在共同2～4年周期振荡,且高原夏季风与南亚高压主中心的经度（纬度）在3～5年（3～4年以及5～6年）上的显著关系最好.     

南京雷达中气旋产品特征值统计分析

为了研究南京中气旋的特征,利用南京新一代天气雷达探测资料对2005-2013年的中气旋产品特征进行统计,重点对持续3个体扫以上的中气旋结构特征进行分析。结果表明:中气旋通常产生在对流有效位能较高和风垂直切变较大的环境条件下,6-7月是中气旋的多发时段,主要出现在午后到前半夜,中气旋的底高、顶高和最强切变与中欧的中气旋分布相似;高质心中气旋有利于冰雹的产生,而低质心、强切变中气旋有利于产生龙卷。      

基于MODIS时序数据的秦巴山区生态环境质量动态监测及驱动力分析

生态环境质量评价是开展秦巴山区生态环境保护和生态文明建设的重要基础.现有研究多利用统计数据或者单一指标探讨秦巴山区生态环境状况,但难以揭示研究区内部生态系统的复杂性和整体性.本文选取2002—2020年的MODIS系列遥感数据,借助主成分分析法提取遥感生态指数并探究秦巴山区生态环境质量的时空分异特征,综合地理探测器和相...     

过去2000a中国东部冬半年温度变幅与周期

The amplitude and rhythm of temperature changes at inter-decadal and inter-centennial timescale were studied, based on the winter-half year temperature change series reconstructed from historical phenological events in eastern China for the past 2000 years, together with the temperature change simulation from ECHO-G model for the past 1000 years, and the quasi-periods of temperature fluctuation were discussed by using wavelet analysis. The results indicate: 1) the maximal amplitude of winter half-year temperature change in eastern China at decadal and centennial scale, was above 2℃ and 0.5-1.0℃ respectively. The reconstructed result indicates that the amplitude of warming during the 20th century was identical with the maximum amplitude before the 20th century in eastern China, but the simulated result suggests that the amplitude of warming has exceeded the maximum amplitude. 2) The rhythms of temperature change at centennial to millennial scale in eastern China were about 100-year, 250-year, 400-year, 600-year and 1000-year. The 20th century, the 1st-3rd century and the 9th-13th century were warm peaks at inter-centennial scale as well as at millennial scale. It is implicated that the warming during the 20th century should be attributed to not only anthropogenic effect, but also natural climate variation.