地质灾害发生时间和空间的预测预报

运用非线性科学的理论和方法,提出了一整套地质灾害预测预报的理论和方法,包括探索地质灾害发生前兆的加卸载响应比方法、地质灾害发生时间预测的协同学模型以及地质灾害区域预测评价的神经网络方法,并建立了基于GIS的地质灾害区域评价系统。同时,通过对向家坝水电站库区的崩滑地质灾害的统计分析,提出了地质灾害发生规模与发生频率间的幂律规则。     

Survival, growth and immune activity of scallop Chlamys farreri cultured at different depths in Haizhou Bay(Yellow Sea,China)during hot season

Survival, growth and immune response of the scallop, Chlamys farreri, cultured in lantern nets at five different depths (2, 5, 10, 15, and 20 m below the sea surface) were studied in Haizhou Bay during the hot season (summer and autumn) of 2007. Survival and growth rates were quantified bimonthly. Immune activities in hemolymph (superoxide dismutase (SOD) and acid phosphatase (ACP)) were measured to evaluate the health of scallops at the end of the study. Environmental parameters at the five depths were also monitored during the experiment. Mortalities mainly occurred during summer. Survival of scallops suspended at 15 m (78.0%) and 20 m (86.7%) was significantly higher than at 2 m (62.9%), 5 m (60.8%) or 10 m (66.8%) at the end of the study. Mean shell height grew significantly faster at 10 m (205.0 μm/d) and 20 m (236.9 μm/d) than at 2, 5 or 15 m in summer (July 9 to September 1); however, shell growth rate at 20 m was significantly lower than at the other four depths in autumn (September 2 to November 6). In contrast to summer, scallops at 5 m grew faster (262.9 μm/d) during autumn. The growth of soft tissue at different depths showed a similar trend to the shell. Growth rates of shell height and soft tissue were faster in autumn than in summer, with the exception of shell height at 20 m. SOD activity of scallops increased with depth, and ACP activity was significantly higher at 15 and 20 m than at other depths, which suggests that scallops were healthier near the bottom. Factors explaining the depth-related mortality and growth of scallops are also discussed. We conclude that the mass mortality of scallop, C. farreri, during summer can be prevented by moving the culture area to deeper water and yield can be maximized by suspending the scallops in deep water during summer and then transferring them to shallow water in autumn.     

Evaluation of body weight of sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus by computer vision

Apostichopus japonicus(Holothuroidea,Echinodermata) is an ecological and economic species in East Asia.Conventional biometric monitoring method includes diving for samples and weighing above water,with highly variable in weight measurement due to variation in the quantity of water in the respiratory tree and intestinal content of this species.Recently,video survey method has been applied widely in biometric detection on underwater benthos.However,because of the high flexibility of A.japonicus body,video survey method of monitoring is less used in sea cucumber.In this study,we designed a model to evaluate the wet weight of A.japonicus,using machine vision technology combined with a support vector machine(SVM) that can be used infield surveys on the A.japonicus population.Continuous dorsal images of free-moving A.japonicus individuals in seawater were captured,which also allows for the development of images of the core body edge as well as thorn segmentation.Parameters that include body length,body breadth,perimeter and area,were extracted from the core body edge images and used in SVM regression,to predict the weight of A.japonicus and for comparison with a power model.Results indicate that the use of SVM for predicting the weight of 33 A.japonicus individuals is accurate(R~2=0.99) and compatible with the power model(R~2=0.96).The image-based analysis and size-weight regression models in this study may be useful in body weight evaluation of A.japonicus in lab and field study.     

准噶尔盆地南缘头屯河地区砂岩型铀矿铀源区及其成矿构造背景分析——来自碎屑锆石U-Pb年龄及Hf同位素的证据

准噶尔盆地是我国重要的多能源矿产产出盆地之一,而准噶尔盆地南缘头屯河地区也是我国砂岩型铀矿找矿的优选区段,为了厘定头屯河地区砂岩型铀矿赋矿层位沉积期的源区位置、母岩岩性及时代,本文在野外地质调查的基础上,对头屯河地区砂岩型铀矿赋矿层中的碎屑锆石进行了LA-ICP-MS U-Pb定年和Hf同位素分析,建立了碎屑锆石的U-Pb年龄及Hf模式年龄谱系。通过与周缘岩浆活动时代对比,并结合古流向数据进一步分析赋矿层位沉积期的源区位置及母岩岩性,讨论砂岩型铀矿的铀源条件。对采自侏罗系和下白垩统的4个砂岩样品进行碎屑锆石年龄分析表明:碎屑锆石U-Pb年龄存在140～180 Ma、240～320 Ma、340～420 Ma、440～480 Ma四个主峰值年龄段,年龄较平均的分布在210～480 Ma宽泛的区间内。研究表明头屯河地区早侏罗世物源来自北天山;中侏罗世物源来自中、南天山;中侏罗晚期开始转变为以北天山为主;早白垩世物源大部分来自中、北天山,少量来自博格达山地区。砂岩型铀矿化层铀源主要来自南侧天山地区的古生代中酸性火成岩,其成矿作用应该发生在盆地处于较稳定的构造环境中。     

无人机在重大地质灾害应急调查中的应用

传统的地质灾害应急调查受限于地形、天气等外界条件,不能快速全面地获取灾害的详细信息,而无人机具有灵活性强、时效性高和不受复杂地形影响等特点,在地质灾害应急调查中有独特的优势。本文以“6·24”新磨村滑坡和“10·11”白格滑坡为例,阐述了无人机数据获取及处理流程,重点介绍了无人机获取的数字地形产品在地质灾害精确描述、定性及定量分析中的应用。结果表明：无人机摄影测量技术为重大地质灾害应急调查提供了更加科学高效的现场影像采集和遥感成果处理及应用方案,为应急救灾工作的顺利实施及分析研判提供了重要数据支撑,科学有效地保证了现场施工救援人员的安全。     

基于遥感分析的延安新区平山造城工程地面沉降及植被恢复特征研究

湿陷性黄土地区岩土工程往往涉及大量挖方填方工程,极易引发一系列的地面沉降和植被破坏问题。本文基于SBAS-InSAR技术结合遥感数据处理对延安新区平山造城工后地面沉降及植被恢复特征进行了分析。首先,通过目视解译及DEM提取,获取工程基本特征;随后,基于SBAS-InSAR技术对新区工后地面沉降进行探测;最后,利用遥感提取新区的NDVI时序数据。结果表明:(1)延安新区建筑工程建设滞后挖填方工程约2a,填方区域沿着原始地形的沟谷展布,挖填方体最大厚度均超过90m;(2)延安新区主要沉降区为填方区域,2017~2018年最大沉降速率达45mm ·a-1,主要建筑工程所处的挖方区无明显地面沉降,工程边坡大多处于稳定状态;(3)延安新区2013~2015年NDVI平均值增长230%,2015~2018年增长50%,植被恢复明显。延安新区平山造城工程的规划建设合理的规避了地面沉降及缓解了生态环境恶化,研究成果可为类似工程建设提供科学参考依据。     

基于最优分解模态和GRU模型的库岸滑坡位移预测研究

在滑坡位移综合预测研究中,常因滑坡随机位移分量无法准确提取、最优训练数据集及时效性无法确定等,造成多源监测数据利用不充分、位移预测结果不稳定。鉴于此,引入变分模态分解,在滑坡位移时序分析的基础上,结合门控循环单元递归神经网络,提出一种新型滑坡位移综合预测模型。以三峡库区白水河滑坡为例,选取2003-07—2012-12的位移监测数据和同时期库水位及降雨数据进行分析研究,综合模型预测结果的均方根误差为9.715 mm,判定系数为0.967。对比实验分析表明,该模型在保证高预测精度的同时,在有效预测时长和时效性上同样优势明显,在库岸滑坡位移预测研究中具有很强的应用和推广价值。     

大渡河流域河谷深厚覆盖层特征与发育分布规律研究

随着近年来对西部各流域水电梯级开发的全面实施,越来越多的钻孔资料揭露我国西南地区各流域普遍存在河谷深切和深厚覆盖的特殊现象。河谷深切和深厚覆盖层的存在,不仅大大增加了西南地区各流域水电开发的难度,同时也诞生出一系列新的科学问题。本文以梯级水电站较密集、河床勘探资料相对较丰富的大渡河流域为主要研究对象,通过系统分析整理该流域河床钻探资料,对该流域河谷深厚覆盖层的分布特征、物质组成与结构特征、形成时间等进行了较为系统地分析总结,并对其形成机理提出了新的认识。研究结果表明,除局部地段受构造隆升(大岗山、下尔呷)或构造断陷(冶勒)的影响外,大渡河流域95％的河段其河谷覆盖层厚度大于30m,河谷深切和深厚覆盖具有流域性、区域性特点。河谷覆盖层是由一套不同时期、不同成因类型的沉积物相互迭置的结果,由表及里宏观上可分为3层: 表层为现代河流相堆积;  中间主要为以冰水、崩积、坡积、堰塞堆积与冲积混合为主的加积层,厚度相对较大;  底部主要为古河床的冲积、冰水漂卵砾石层。覆盖层的形成时代一般在1～3万年前,基本与地质历史上末次冰期及冰消期时间相对应。为了更好地解释河谷深切和深厚覆盖具有区域性的特点,本文提出了全球气候变化和海平面升降引起河谷深切和深厚覆盖的观点: 冰期海平面的大幅度下降会引起区域性基准面大幅下降,河流比降加大,由此引起强烈下切,形成深切河谷;  冰后期海平面大幅回升,区域性基准面将大幅抬升,河流纵比降减小,水流的携砂能力减弱,冰期河谷深切所形成的固体物质开始大量沉积,并由此形成深厚覆盖层。     

准噶尔盆地西北缘西山窑组烃类流体作用特征及其铀成矿意义

目前对准噶尔盆地西北缘西山窑组烃类流体的性质、类型、作用特征及机理还未开展过系统研究,从而导致砂岩绿色化成因及其与铀矿化的关系仍不是十分清楚.对西山窑组原生灰色砂岩和绿色蚀变砂岩进行了野外岩心观察、光薄片镜下鉴定、X射线衍射、扫描电镜、化学全分析、流体包裹体以及C、O稳定同位素分析测试.结果表明:绿色蚀变砂岩普遍发育较强的粘土化（主要为蒙脱石化和绿泥石化）、黄铁矿化和碳酸盐化;其高岭石相对含量明显减少,还原容量增高;碳酸盐胶结物δ13C_V-PDB明显偏负,为-12.8‰~-8.6‰,δ18OV-PDB为-11.7‰~-7.7‰;流体包裹体气体成分以CH₄为主,含少量CO₂.绿色蚀变砂岩遭受了偏碱性还原态烃类流体改造,进而掩盖保护了早期形成的古氧化带及古铀矿体,增加了找矿难度;且与近现代含氧含铀水相互作用形成了目前发现的铀矿体.      

甘肃黑方台滑坡滑距参数的BP神经网络模型

在甘肃黑方台,由于台塬大面积提水灌溉导致台塬边滑坡频繁发生,对当地居民生命财产安全造成危害。文章以黑方台75处滑坡(含53处黄土滑坡与22处黄土-基岩滑坡)为研究对象,基于BP神经网络模型,优化建立了迭代BP神经网络模型,全方位研究分析了滑坡滑距同滑坡体体积参数与地形地貌参数之间的关系,其中黄土滑坡迭代99次,黄土-基岩滑坡迭代256次。最优模型返回相关系数为0.976(黄土滑坡)与0.978(黄土-基岩滑坡),结果具有较高的可靠性。选取模型结果最优的几组迭代方案分析可知,影响黄土滑坡滑距的重要参数为滑坡体积、滑源区纵向长、滑坡落差、滑坡坡角、黄土厚度,次要参数为滑源区横向宽与滑坡壁高;影响黄土-基岩滑坡滑距的重要参数为滑源区纵向长、滑坡落差、滑动方向、基岩倾角、滑坡坡角,次重要参数为滑坡体积与岩层倾角,次要参数为滑源区横向宽与滑坡壁高。该研究为黑方台地区滑坡滑距以及滑坡危险范围的研究提供参考与指导。