1980~2018年龙泉驿区降水的多尺度特征

应用趋势分析、Morlet小波分析以及Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,研究了1980~2018年龙泉驿区降水整体趋势,包括降水的年际变化和季节性趋势,以及降水日数和月、旬、日降水的集中性特征。结果表明:龙泉驿区年降水量整体下降趋势明显,存在3a和9a振荡周期;降水日数存在7~8a和12a振荡主周期,以及4a振荡次周期。可引发龙泉驿区地质灾害活动的降水主要发生在7月和8月,二者降水量在年代际尺度上的变化趋势相反。旬降水量与日降水量均呈明显的准正态分布规律,旬降水量主要集中时段是7月下旬与8月中旬,日降水量较大值也出现在7月与8月。      

冷涡背景下飑线过程统计分析

文章首先给出冷涡的定义,根据其定义,利用2008-2013年4-9月的天气图识别出73个冷涡,然后根据飑线的标准筛选出符合条件的飑线过程。利用多普勒雷达资料和1°×1°6 h的NCEP FNL资料,对飑线的时空分布、移动特征、形成、消散方式以及飑线和冷涡的关系等方面进行详细分析。结果表明:(1)2008-2013年6年共识别出73个冷涡、17条飑线,飑线主要形成于我国江淮流域、华北地区和东北地区。(2)飑线的发生有明显的月变化和日变化,约58.8%的飑线发生在7月,52.9%的飑线发生在午后到傍晚。(3)飑线主要形成在冷涡的南部,在冷涡的不同时期飑线形成的位置有所不同。(4)飑线一部分受西风带系统影响自西向东偏南方向移动,另一部分由西北向东南方向移动,具体移动方向具有不一致性。冷涡背景下的飑线移速较快。(5)本文统计的冷涡背景下飑线过程大都伴随短时强降水,主要形成方式为嵌套区线型(EA型),主要消散方式为颠倒破碎面型(RBA型),EA型飑线多产生于高潮湿环境中。     

西部荒漠地区的湿地和水禽多样性

我国西部荒漠地区约有自然和人工湿地 96 180km2 ,这些湿地按成因分为断层陷落积水成湿地 ,冰川湖湿地 ,地下水浅出湿地 ,灌溉退水湿地和人工湿地。栖息着《湿地公约》规定的水禽 14 2种 ,占我国水禽种数的5 4 .8% ,其中繁殖种类 74种 ,占 5 2 .1%。列入国家野生动物重点保护名录的 2 6种 ,占 18.3% ,占我国列入保护名录水禽种数的 5 0 .0 %。列入《濒危野生动植物物种国际贸易公约》(CITES)的 12种 ,占 8.4 % ;列入《中日候鸟及其栖息环境保护协定》的 84种 ,占 5 9.2 %。荒漠地区湿地对水禽迁徙、繁殖、越冬有着特殊重要的作用。自然环境改变 ,尤其气候变干旱和人类活动严重影响着荒漠地区湿地的存在 ,对水禽的物种多样性和种群数量产生了强烈影响。应加强荒漠地区湿地保护     

地下水资源系统模糊管理模型及计算方法

在研究解决地下水资源系统管理问题时．通常没有考虑人在思维和行动上所具有的模糊性，没有或很少顾及和采纳、运用决策者或领域专家的知识、经验和创造性，所获得的研究成果实用性效差，很难为生产部门或决策部门采纳和运用．本文利用模糊数学规划的理论和方法，分析和研究地下水资源系统的模糊管理问题，建立模糊管理模型，提出一种模糊分步线性规划方法．实例计算、分析表明，所建立的模型和提出的方法是有效的和实用的．     

大气低频振荡对四川盆地持续性强降水的影响

利用1981—2016年我国地面气象站降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,通过小波分析、合成分析、Butterworth滤波等方法,定义了适用于四川盆地的持续性强降水,对降水和大气15~30 d低频振荡特征进行详细分析,可为该地延伸期预报提供参考。结果表明:该地降水具有15~30 d和30~60 d低频振荡特征,其中以15~30 d振荡为主。降水期间各高度层和各纬度带低频系统具有垂直斜压性,在三维空间上相互配合,形成有利于降水产生的低频环流形势。低层和中层南北气流汇合于四川盆地形成辐合区,高层表现为北风南下。低层低纬度气旋在西太平洋生成并逐渐向西北移动至南海、华南,带来暖湿气流,中高纬度贝加尔湖东南侧生成气旋并向东移动至鄂霍次克海附近,加强北风输送。中层中高纬度欧亚大陆低压中心向东南方移动,降水时到达蒙古,并分裂小槽传播至下游,在日本海加强,高压中心紧随其后到达乌拉尔山。降水期间四川盆地上空高层为辐散区,有利于中低层辐合上升运动的维持。     

近年来人类活动影响下长江河口的变化模式

To evaluate the controlling factors for coastline change of the Changjiang(Yangtze River) Estuary since 1974,we extracted the mean high tide line from multi-temporal remote sensing images that span from 1974 to 2014 at 2-year intervals.We chose 42 scenes to constrain the changing pattern of the Changjiang Estuary coastline,and implemented GIS technology to analyze the area change of the Changjiang(Yangtze) Subaerial Delta.Runoff,sediment discharge and coastal engineering were withal considered in the analysis of the coastline changes.The coastline has transgressed seaward since 1974,and a part of it presents inter-annual variations.The area of the Changjiang Subaerial Delta increased by 871 km2,with a net accretion rate of 21.8 km2/a.Based on the change of sediment discharge due to the major projects in the Changjiang River Basin,we divided the changing pattern of the coastline into three stages:the slow accretion stage(1974–1986),the moderate accretion stage(1987–2002),and the rapid accretion stage(2003–2014).Liner regression analysis illustrated that there is a significantly positive correlation between the area changes and sediment discharge in the Chongming Eastern Shoal and Jiuduansha.This suggested that sediment load has a fundamental effect on the evolution of the Changjiang Estuary.Construction of Deep Waterway in the North Passage of the Changjiang River(1998–2010) led to a rapid accretion in the Hengsha Eastern Shoal and Jiuduansha by influencing the hydrodynamics in North Passage.Coastal engineering such as reclamation and harbor construction can also change the morphology of the Changjiang Estuary.We defined a contribution rate of area change to assess the impact of reclamation on the evolution of Changjiang Estuary.It turned out that more than 45.3% of area increment of the Changjiang Estuary was attributed to reclamation.     

苏北滨海湿地互花米草潮滩CO2,CH4和N2O通量的日变化规律

The invasions of the alien species such as Spartina alterniflora along the northern Jiangsu coastlines have posed a threat to biodiversity and the ecosystem function.Yet,limited attention has been given to their potential influence on greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions,including the diurnal variations of GHG fluxes that are fundamental in estimating the carbon and nitrogen budget.In this study,we examined the diurnal variation in fluxes of carbon dioxide(CO_2),methane(CH_4),and nitrous oxide(N2O) from a S.alterniflora intertidal flat in June,October,and December of 2013 and April of 2014 representing the summer,autumn,winter,and spring seasons,respectively.We found that the average CH_4 fluxes on the diurnal scale were positive during the growing season while negative otherwise.The tidal flat of S.alterniflora acted as a source of CH_4 in summer(June) and a combination of source and sink in other seasons.We observed higher diurnal variations in the CO_2 and N_2O fluxes during the growing season(1 536.5 mg CO_2 m~(–2) h~(–1) and 25.6 μg N_2O m~(–2) h~(–1)) compared with those measured in the non-growing season(379.1 mg CO_2 m~(–2) h~(–1) and 16.5 μg N_2O m~(–2) h~(–1)).The mean fluxes of CH_4 were higher at night than that in the daytime during all the seasons but October.The diurnal variation in the fluxes of CO_2 in June and N_2O in December fluctuated more than that in October and April.However,two peak curves in October and April were observed for the diurnal changes in CO_2 and N_2O fluxes(prominent peaks were found in the morning of October and in the afternoon of April,respectively).The highest diurnal variation in the N_2O fluxes took place at 15:00(86.4 μg N_2O m~(–2) h~(–1)) in June with an unimodal distribution.Water logging in October increased the emission of CO_2(especially at nighttime),yet decreased N_2O and CH_4 emissions to a different degree on the daily scale because of the restrained diffusion rates of the gases.The seasonal and diurnal variations of CH_4 and CO_2 fluxes did not correlate to the air and soil temperatures,whereas the seasonal and diurnal variation of the fluxes of N_2O in June exhibited a significant correlation with air temperature.When N_2O and CH_4 fluxes were converted to CO_2-e equivalents,the emissions of N_2O had a remarkable potential to impact the global warming.The mean daily flux(MF) and total daily flux(TDF) were higher in the growing season,nevertheless,the MF and TDF of CO_2 were higher in October and those of CH_4 and N_2O were higher in June.In spite of the difference in the optimal sampling times throughout the observation period,our results obtained have implications for sampling and scaling strategies in estimating the GHG fluxes in coastal saline wetlands.     

美国能源部甲烷水合物研究计划简介

美国能源部（ＤＯＥ）Ｍｏｒｇａｎｔｏｗｎ能源技术中心（现在的联邦能源技术中心,ＦＥＦＣ）资助的始于１９８２年的甲烷水合物十年研究计划,发现了阿拉斯加Ｋｕｐａｒｕｋ油气田存在水合物;完成了近海１５个含水合物盆地的研究;建立了从水合物中通过减压和加热生产天然气的生产模型;成立了水合物和沉积物测试实验室。该计划由于某些原因,后被取消。８０年代以来,由于一些国家政府的关注、科学家的呼吁、气体水合物的新发现和全球气候变暖与全球碳循环中气体水合物的作用与影响等因素,使甲烷水合物重新引起美国政府的重视。１９９…     

滇中易门里士北部水下碳酸质火山-喷流岩铁、铜矿化及其大型隐伏矿床找矿研究

易门里士北部磁异常区中元古代是一个比周边相对低洼的碱性-碳酸质火山水下活动环境。因民组含矿层除有(次)火山岩和火山辞屑沉积岩外,还有粘土质-绿脱石岩、铁质岩、铁质硅质岩、铁质泥岩、碳酸盐岩、泥质白云岩、硅质白云岩等热液喷流岩含钠质硅酸盐团砾的碳酸质岩及碳酸盐晶屑组成的岩石是碳酸质火山岩。岩石、矿石的高场强元素对比值、稀土元素球粒陨石标准化比值、硫化物 Co/Ni 和 S 同位素比值显示喷流岩源于碱性-碳酸质火山岩,热液交代对成矿作用也有重要贡献,喷流岩除了铁矿化,还有铜、钴、锌、银等。如果将本区矿化岩石与典型喷流矿床——日本黑矿对比,果树村附近的网脉状矿化次火山岩、角砾熔岩、矿化角砾岩类似于喷流中心的矿化英安岩穹和角砾岩;磁异常北缘相同层位的含石膏富BaO 铁质泥岩和铁质硅质岩则相当于低洼地的石膏和重晶石沉积岩。本区磁异常与黑矿主矿一样在喷流岩层内处于喷流口与膏盐沉积洼地之间,其周边的铁矿点绝不是矿化的主体。大型含铜铁矿应该隐伏在深部因民组含矿层个于喷流中心和石膏、重晶石层之间的磁异常体中。     

城市社区养老设施配置空间均衡研究

我国人口老龄化增速势头不减,存在养老服务业发展不平衡、老龄服务供给不足的矛盾。北京是较早进入老龄化的城市,提出了以居家为主的“9064”养老模式以解决养老资源缺口问题。为促进社区养老服务供给的便利化,提高老年群体对养老服务的“获得感”,本文以北京市海淀区老年人口密度较大的17个街道为研究区,采用百度POI、小区户数、高德地图和遥感影像等多源数据,对老年人口统计数据进行空间网格化,比较国家、省（市）社区养老设施的服务半径及调查所得老年人日常出行特征,引入北京市居住公共服务设施配置指标作为评价标准,应用改进型两步移动搜索算法并构建空间均衡系数,从服务覆盖率、供需比和医疗资源易获性3个方面对社区养老设施进行空间均衡研究。结果表明,研究区内社区养老驿站的数量仍有不足,不同半径下的服务覆盖率和供需比差异显著,500 m半径内的覆盖率仅为23.3%,空间分布不合理是超八成社区养老驿站供需比偏低的主要原因,基层社区卫生机构对医疗资源的易获性有积极作用;社区养老服务发展不均衡,需要进一步优化配置。