基于逻辑回归模型的泥石流易发性评价与检验：以金沙江上游奔子栏—昌波河段为例

基于地理信息系统(ArcGIS100)平台和小流域单元,采用逻辑回归(LR)模型对金沙江上游(奔子栏—昌波河段)干热河谷区进行泥石流易发性评价,并对预测结果进行总体检验与随机个案检验。评价与检验结果表明,得到的最优指标组合下LR评价模型的AUC值为827%;预测的极高易发区、高易发区面积合占全区面积的3598%,实发泥石流面积占泥石流总面积的6503%;在个案检验中,位于各等级分区的检验组样本实发泥石流比例随着分区易发性等级降低,依次为917%(极高)、750%(高)、364%(中等)、167%(低)、0(极低),表明评价效果良好。研究区泥石流集中发育于金沙江沿岸的东北部、中部和西南部,主导性的评价指标依次为距主干道路距离、岩性、距断裂带距离、雨季月平均降雨量。人类活动与季节性降雨为研究区干热河谷泥石流的主要诱发条件。基于逻辑回归模型的泥石流易发性评价方法提高了泥石流发生可能性的预测精度,可为干热河谷区泥石流预测预警和防治提供参考依据。     

Depositional features and sedimentary model of Buqu Stage in Mid-Jurassic in Qangtang Basin, Xizang （Tibet）, China

The largest Mesozoic northward transgression in Qangtang Basin of Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau occurred during the Buqu Stage, Middle Jurassic. Mainly filled with carbonate rocks, the whole basin is composed of transgression-regression sedimentary cycle. Field outcrops and indoor analysis revealed 8 types of sedimentary facies markers in this region. 4 types of sedimentary facies have been recognized: platform facies,platform marginal facies, foreslope facies and basin facies. Influenced by the northern Lazhuglung-Jinshajiang suture zone, central uplift region and southern Bangongco-Nujiang suture zone, these facies belts extended east-west. The sedimentary model was established based on observed depositional features. From their biological features and sedimentary characteristics, it is suggested that the paleoclimate was warm and humid at that time.The Buqu Formation is a promising target for oil and gas exploration in Shuanghu-Duoyong area in future.     

海监技术装备保障支撑系统建设与管理

随着国家对海洋的重视,海洋权益维护日益严峻,中国海监维权执法任务越来越繁重,面临着严峻的挑战和复杂的形势。文章主要研究建立海监技术装备支撑系统,为海监维权执法提供技术保障与支撑,管理海监技术装备,更好地发挥高新技术装备,为海监维权执法与监察执法提供服务。     

低纬高原城市冬季南北朝向室内温湿特征的初步分析

通过对低纬城市－昆明冬季室内、外气温观测资料的分析，探讨了不同天气下南北朝室内的气温、湿度特征。得出昆明地区冬季各种天气状况下室内最低气温和日均气温的增温效应均十分显著，与庭院相比，南向室内的增温幅度为7．7－10．0℃和4．6－5．8℃；北向室内为4．6－7．0℃和1．3－4．4℃；最高气温南向室内高于室外，而北向室内一般低于室外。另外，建筑物不但可维持较高的室同温度，而且减缓了室内气温的变化幅度，不论南向室内还是北向室内，气温日较差均小于室外，变幅仅为室外的40％－48％（南向）和20％－30％（北向），且最高气温出现时间比室外约迟2小时，显示了建筑物内温度变化的惰性。研究还得出南向室内相对湿度均小于北向，南北差异以晴天最大，阴天最小。室内相对湿度的日变化特征为夜间湿度大，变化小，昼间湿度小，变化大。以上结果可为低纬城市气候的深入研究，建筑的合理设计提供科学基础。     

浅谈如何创新和发展改制企业工会工作

近年来，随着企业改制力度不断加大，企业的经济成份、组织形式、利益关系和分配方式等都发生了深刻的变化，呈现出经济结构的多元化、劳动关系的复杂化和就业方式的多样化。这给改制企业工会工作带来前所未有的困难与挑战。面对这种形势，国有企业工会要想实践好“三个代表”重要思想．履行好自己的职责，就必须清醒地认识和研究当前工会工作所遇到的新情况、新问题，注重对工会工作的创新和发展，只有这样，才能探索出适应新形势要求的企业工会工作新路子。     

塔北隆起北部叠加断裂构造特征与成因背景分析

塔北隆起在塔里木叠合盆地演化时期经历了古克拉通隆起、早期前陆前缘隆起、库车再生前陆盆地斜坡3个阶段。经过两期成盆构造变革阶段，塔北隆起北部垂向上叠加深、浅层两组断裂系统：深层断裂系统为基底逆冲断裂，发育冲断构造、背冲构造组合；浅层断裂系统为正断层，发育地堑、地垒构造样式组合。两组不同性质断裂系统的发育均对应于两期造山挤压背景下前陆盆地形成阶段。笔者认为，深层断裂并非是处于早期前陆变形区域，而是处于挤压背景下板内塔北古克拉通隆起“纵弯”构造变形中岩层破裂的结果。浅层断裂是库车再生前陆盆地阶段塔北隆起北部基底（前中生界构造层）受水平挤压翘曲变形（纵弯变形）导致上覆岩层引张破裂的结果。     

昌黎井含水层系统的水位水温动态关系与地震活动

研究深层含水系统水位，水温动态，目前多以变化形态的描述和年动态特征的分析为主，本文根据水位，水温的变化关系，研究了两者线性相关系数r值的稳定和回归系数b值随时间的变化，发现地震活动平静时间段的r值和b值相对稳定，而在地城活动频敏，强度较高时间段为r值和b 值变化较大，文章对1989年10月19日大同6．1级地震和1995年以来地震活动性及1998年1月10日张北6．2级地震前后r值和b值的变化进行了讨论，显示了比单一分析水位或水温动态能够获得更多的信息，从对深层地下水动态与水温关系的分析认为，水位动态是深层含水系统热动平衡状态的反应，研究水位动态必须同时研究地下水热动态。     

PRELIMINARY STUDY OF INDOOR FEATURES OF TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY FOR ROOMS FACING NORTH-SOUTH IN WINTER IN A LOW-LATITUDE PLATEAU CITY

Analyzing observations of wintertime air temperature in both indoor and outdoor surroundings in Kunming, a city lying in low latitudes, characteristics of temperature and humidity have been studied for the interior of rooms facing north-south under different weather conditions. Significant warming effect has been identified in terms of lowest and daily-mean indoor temperature in the area of Kunming. The heating amplitude ranges from 7.7°C to 10.0°C and from 4.6°C to 5.8°C for the interior part of rooms facing the south and from 4.6°C to 7.0°C and from 1.3°C to 4.4°C for the interior part of rooms facing the north, respectively for the two elements. The highest air temperature is higher indoor than outdoor for rooms facing the south, but otherwise is usually true for rooms facing the north. Additional findings point out that buildings not only help maintain relatively warm indoor temperature but delay its variation. The diurnal cycle of temperature indoor is smaller and ranges by 40% ~ 48% for south-facing rooms, and by 20% ~ 30% for north-facing rooms, than outdoor, and the highest temperature is about 2 hours late inside the room than outside. It shows how inertly indoor temperature varies. The work also finds that relative humidity is less indoor in southward rooms than in northward ones and difference is the largest on fine days but the smallest when it is overcast. For the diurnal variation, the indoor relative humidity is large at nighttime with small amplitude but small during daytime with large amplitude. The above-presented results can be served as scientific foundation for more research on climate in low-latitude cities and rational design of urban architectures.     

潜热能场在暴雨过程中的作用

根据能量天气学原理及不稳定理论，选择表示潜在不稳定能量大小的物理量，计算了暴雨前期的潜热能场，并着重分析了潜热能场的空间分布特征和不同类型影响系统下暴雨对应的潜热能场的量值指标。