NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF AN EXTREME RAINSTORM OVER THE PEARL RIVER DELTA REGION ON 7 MAY 2017 BASED ON WRF-ENKF

An ensemble Kalman filter based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-EnKF) is used to explore the effectiveness of the assimilation of surface observation data in an extreme local rainstorm over the Pearl River Delta region on 7 May 2017. Before the occurrence of rainstorm, the signals of weather forecasts in this case are too weak to be predicted by numerical weather model, but the surface temperature over the urban area are high. The results of this study show that the wind field, temperature, and water vapor are obviously adjusted by assimilating surface data of 10-m wind, 2-m temperature, and 2-m water vapor mixing ratio at 2300 BST 6 May, especially below the height of 2 km. The southerly wind over the Pearl River Delta region is enhanced, and the convergence of wind over the northern Guangzhou city is also enhanced. Additionally, temperature, water vapor mixing ratio and pseudoequivalent potential temperature are obviously increased over the urban region, providing favorable conditions for the occurrence of heavy precipitation. After assimilation, the predictions of 12-h rainfall amount, temperature, and relative humidity are significantly improved, and the rainfall intensity and distribution in this case can be successfully reproduced. Moreover, sensitivity tests suggest that the assimilation of 2-m temperature is the key to predict this extreme rainfall and just assimilating data of surface wind or water vapor is not workable, implying that urban heat island effect may be an important factor in this extreme rainstorm.     

模式探空的评估分析及其在强对流天气预报中的应用研究

分析华南地区强对流天气高发季节(4～5月)的模式探空与实际观测的比较结果.从模式探空的直接评估分析中发现,地面和较高层次的预报要素误差比较大,而中间层次误差比较小,在比较多个观测站和实时预报误差分析的基础上初步探讨其可能的原因.在不稳定度指数评估分析中发现,仅考虑中间层次要素的不稳定度指数性能比较稳定,而考虑地面要素的一些不稳定度指数则有可能比较敏感,在用地面观测订正后其质量有很大的提高.在强对流天气个例的应用研究中,认为逐时预报的模式探空有非常好的应用价值,以订正的对流有效位能指数为例进行了一些分析,表     

IMPACT OF THE INITIALIZATION ON MESOSCALE MODEL PREDICTION IN SOUTH CHINA

1 INTRODUCTIONThe initial state of the atmosphere is one of the keyfactors that affect the result of NWP. With thedevelopment of increasingly finer NWP, the quality ofinitial atmospheric state has been drawing more andmore attention[1-7]. GRAPES 3D- Var(G…     

基于等距圆的极球面投影距离量测方法

研究了极球面投影海图上准确便捷地量测距离的方法。推导了极球面投影下大圆航线和等角航线的方程,形状分析表明极区宜采用大圆航线量测距离;根据极球面投影下直线的几何意义推导了其距离计算公式,距离差值分析表明可用直线代替大圆航线准确量测距离;根据极球面投影上小圆线投影为圆的性质,提出了一种基于等距圆的准确便捷的距离量测方法,以满足极球面投影海图的极区导航应用需要。     

封顶覆盖黄土气体渗透特性测试及填埋气一维运移分析

黄土在我国西北地区广泛分布,是当地垃圾填埋场封顶覆盖层的主要材料,该材料的气体渗透特性直接影响了覆盖层对填埋气释放的控制效果。利用渗析技术和自制的气体渗透系数测量装置,模拟和测试了干湿气象条件下覆盖黄土服役含水率变化及其对气体渗透系数的影响,并建立填埋气在垃圾体和覆盖层中的一维稳态运移模型,分析了覆盖层气体渗透系数和抽气速率对填埋气释放控制效果的影响。研究结果表明：渗析技术能有效模拟覆盖黄土服役含水率的变化,压实黄土试样的气体渗透系数介于10-17～10-12 m2量级,随服役含水率的增加而降低,且对于压实度比较高的黄土降低得更加明显;覆盖层底部的填埋气压随气体渗透系数的减小而增大,通过覆盖层下部的气体扩散层负压抽气等措施,可有效减小覆盖层底部气压和填埋气的释放量。     

胶东金银矿石英主微量元素化学成分特征及意义

石英是自然界分布很广的矿物,是金矿中重要的载金矿物之一,在金矿的各个成矿阶段均有出现。目前对胶东各类型金银矿中石英的化学成分标型研究还较薄弱。该文对胶东各类型金银矿中成矿期石英的化学成分进行了详细研究,结果表明,各金银矿中石英中K/Na,Al,Na-K-Al和(Na+K)-Al参数均有显著区别,可用于区分胶东各类型金银矿,以上区别和各金银矿不同的成矿环境密切相关。以上结论对胶东各金银矿的成因和找矿具有借鉴意义。     

北祁连车路沟斑岩型金矿床含矿岩体年代学、地球化学与岩石成因

车路沟金矿是北祁连山发现的首例与斑岩有关的金矿床, 矿体产于加里东晚期侵入的中酸性斑岩体及其与围岩接触带内。为了查明含矿斑岩体侵位时代、岩石成因和源区性质, 本文以车路沟一带含矿斑岩体作为研究对象, 对其开展了岩石地球化学、LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb同位素定年和Hf同位素特征研究。该岩体主要由花岗闪长斑岩、石英闪长斑岩、英云闪长斑岩组成, 对花岗闪长斑岩、英云闪长斑岩进行了LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb同位素定年, 分别获得锆石²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U加权平均年龄为438.6±3.8Ma和433.0±3.8Ma, 指示岩浆侵位时代为早志留世晚期。岩石SiO₂含量为61.4%~68.6%, Al₂O₃含量为15.0%~16.7%, MgO含量为0.36%~2.95%, σ值介于1.20~2.03之间, A/CNK值为1.0~1.1之间, 属钙碱性系列准铝质花岗岩类; 具有弱负铕异常-正铕异常(δEu=0.90~1.18), 高Sr(319×10^-6~549×10^-6)含量和Sr/Y(36.6~77.5)比值, 低Y(7.09×10^-6~10.2×10^-6)和Yb(0.69×10^-6~0.89×10^-6)含量, 具有埃达克岩地球化学特征。该岩体的锆石ε_Hf(t)值均为正值, 变化于+12.7~+15.0之间, 两阶段模式年龄t_DM2(Hf)=461~563Ma, 推测岩浆源区可能主要来自新元古代晚期至寒武纪新生洋壳物质。研究认为车路沟斑岩体形成于陆陆碰撞后期, 地壳持续加厚, 诱发中新元古代晚期至寒武纪新生洋壳发生部分熔融, 形成埃达克质岩浆, 在其不断上侵和演化过程中, 形成车路沟斑岩体与其相伴产出的金矿体。

     

Verification and Assessment of Real-time Forecasts of Two Extreme Heavy Rain Events in Zhengzhou by Operational NWP Models

In the present study, the performances of the NWP models on two heavy rainfalls on 20 July and 22 August 2021 over Henan Province were investigated. The impacts of the water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall were further discussed. The results showed that the regional model system in the Guangzhou Meteorological Service generally showed high scores on the extreme rainfall over Henan. The maximum 24h accumulative rainfall by the 24h forecasts by the CMA-GD reached 556 mm over Henan Province. The 24-h and 48-h Threat Score (TS) of heavy rainfall reached 0.56 and 0.64. The comparisons of the Fraction Skill Score (FSS) verifications of the heavy rainfall by CMA-GD and CMA-TRAMS at the radium of 40km reached 0.96 and 0.87. The water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall showed that the vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) of the whole layer before the occurrence of the heavy rainfall exhibited a double-eyes distribution in case 7 · 20. The north eye over Henan reached the same magnitude of IVT as the typhoon eye (Cempaka) over south China. The IVT over the lower troposphere (<500 hPa) showed an overwhelming magnitude than the upper level, especially in the planetary boundary layer (<700 hPa). More practical technical needs to be developed to improve its performances on the forecasting of extreme rainfall, as well as more experiments need to be conducted to examine the effects of the specific terrain and physical schemes on the extreme rainfall.     

一道数学题和一道地理题

题目 读地球光照图1,阴影部分为黑夜,据此回答下列问题：