Verification and Assessment of Real-time Forecasts of Two Extreme Heavy Rain Events in Zhengzhou by Operational NWP Models

In the present study, the performances of the NWP models on two heavy rainfalls on 20 July and 22 August 2021 over Henan Province were investigated. The impacts of the water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall were further discussed. The results showed that the regional model system in the Guangzhou Meteorological Service generally showed high scores on the extreme rainfall over Henan. The maximum 24h accumulative rainfall by the 24h forecasts by the CMA-GD reached 556 mm over Henan Province. The 24-h and 48-h Threat Score (TS) of heavy rainfall reached 0.56 and 0.64. The comparisons of the Fraction Skill Score (FSS) verifications of the heavy rainfall by CMA-GD and CMA-TRAMS at the radium of 40km reached 0.96 and 0.87. The water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall showed that the vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) of the whole layer before the occurrence of the heavy rainfall exhibited a double-eyes distribution in case 7 · 20. The north eye over Henan reached the same magnitude of IVT as the typhoon eye (Cempaka) over south China. The IVT over the lower troposphere (<500 hPa) showed an overwhelming magnitude than the upper level, especially in the planetary boundary layer (<700 hPa). More practical technical needs to be developed to improve its performances on the forecasting of extreme rainfall, as well as more experiments need to be conducted to examine the effects of the specific terrain and physical schemes on the extreme rainfall.     

Assimilation of Polarimetric Radar Data Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for the Analysis and Forecast of Tropical Storm Ewiniar

This study explores the potential for directly assimilating polarimetric radar data (including reflectivity Z and differential reflectivity ZDR) using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to improve analysis and forecast of Tropical Storm Ewiniar (2018). Ewiniar weakened but brought about heavy rainfall over Guangdong, China after its final landfall. Two experiments are performed, one assimilating only Z and the other assimilating both Z and ZDR. Assimilation of ZDR together with Z effectively modifies hydrometeor fields, and improves the intensity, shape and position of rainbands. Forecast of 24-hour extraordinary rainfall ≥250 mm is significantly improved. Improvement can also be seen in the wind fields because of cross-variable covariance. The current study shows the possibility of applying polarimetric radar data to improve forecasting of tropical cyclones, which deserves more researches in the future.     

花岗岩风化料弃土快速堆填过程中不排水抗剪强度评估

沿海沿江城市地下开挖产生的工程渣土含泥量大、含水率高且较松散,主要运往渣土场进行堆填处置。由于产量巨大而处置场地有限,许多渣土场在运营过程中存在堆填速度快、缺乏排水设施、超高超库容堆填等问题,容易引发堆填体失稳事故。目前对于非饱和工程渣土堆体在快速堆填过程中的失稳机制认识尚不清晰,尤其是对这一过程中的高饱和度工程渣土强度增长规律缺乏足够的认识。以深圳红坳渣土场填料——花岗岩风化料(CDG)填土为研究对象,对不同初始饱和度土样进行三轴不排水不排气等向压缩和剪切试验,结果表明:非饱和CDG填土不排水抗剪强度随围压增大呈非线性增长,增长速率与试样初始饱和度密切相关;当土样压缩后的饱和度超过0.7,不排水强度随围压的增长速率显著降低。基于有效固结应力法的原理,结合Hilf孔压公式和修正剑桥模型,提出了一种工程渣土不排水抗剪强度估算方法,并通过与试验结果对比验证了该方法对初始饱和度高于0.6的CDG填土的适用性。利用该方法确定的不排水强度cu与正应力σn的关系可应用于高饱和度工程渣土快速堆填中的稳定性分析。     

基于MD5码地质资料（电子文档）的完整性校验

建立以液液萃取—气相色谱质谱法测定地表水中7种工业多氯联苯（Aroclor）总量的方法。采用质谱选择离子模式采集数据,通过比对色谱图定性,选择特征定量峰定量。采用Aroclor 1 016与Aroclor 1 260的混合标准液进行了精密度、准确度、方法检出限与校准曲线实验。实验结果表明：该方法在20 ~ 1 000 ug／L范围内线性关系良好（r² ≥ 0. 999 0）,7种工业多氯联苯的相对标准偏差（RSD）为：3. 00% ~ 8. 87%,检出限（LOD）为0. 008 ug／L,且样品的加标回收率、替代物回收率分别为84. 3% ~ 105%、87. 2% ~ 112%,该法准确度和精密度均满足分析方法的要求,实现了对地表水中7种工业多氯联苯的准确测定。     

CAUSAL ANALYSIS AND NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE INSHORE INTENSIFICATION OF SUPER TYPHOON “HATO”

This paper comprehensively analyzes the characteristics and cause of the inshore intensification of super typhoon "Hato", the 13 th super typhoon in 2017. The aspects of typhoon structure, evolution of large-scale circulation and physical quantity field are analyzed using observation data from the Guangdong Automatic Station, Shenzhen Doppler Radar data, NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data, NCEP 0.25°×0.25° sea surface temperature(SST) data, etc.Additionally, in order to investigate the influence of SST change on the intensity of "Hato", the WRF model and ECMWF 0.125°×0.125° reanalysis data are combined to conduct 3 sensitivity tests on"Hato". The results show that the favorable conditions for inshore intensification of "Hato"included the strengthening and westward extension of the subtropical high, continuous increase of low level moisture transport, an anomalous warm SST area north of 20°N in the South China Sea, an extreme divergence value in the northern South China Sea exceeding 6 ×10-5 s-1, and vertical environmental wind shear between 1.1 m/s-4.8 m/s. The intensity of"Hato"was very sensitive to changes in SST. When the SST rose or dropped by 2℃, the minimum central pressure of the typhoon changed by about 13 hPa or 11 hPa,respectively. SST indirectly influenced the intensity of the typhoon through affecting latent heat transport and sensible heat transport.     

NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF AN EXTREME RAINSTORM OVER THE PEARL RIVER DELTA REGION ON 7 MAY 2017 BASED ON WRF-ENKF

An ensemble Kalman filter based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-EnKF) is used to explore the effectiveness of the assimilation of surface observation data in an extreme local rainstorm over the Pearl River Delta region on 7 May 2017. Before the occurrence of rainstorm, the signals of weather forecasts in this case are too weak to be predicted by numerical weather model, but the surface temperature over the urban area are high. The results of this study show that the wind field, temperature, and water vapor are obviously adjusted by assimilating surface data of 10-m wind, 2-m temperature, and 2-m water vapor mixing ratio at 2300 BST 6 May, especially below the height of 2 km. The southerly wind over the Pearl River Delta region is enhanced, and the convergence of wind over the northern Guangzhou city is also enhanced. Additionally, temperature, water vapor mixing ratio and pseudoequivalent potential temperature are obviously increased over the urban region, providing favorable conditions for the occurrence of heavy precipitation. After assimilation, the predictions of 12-h rainfall amount, temperature, and relative humidity are significantly improved, and the rainfall intensity and distribution in this case can be successfully reproduced. Moreover, sensitivity tests suggest that the assimilation of 2-m temperature is the key to predict this extreme rainfall and just assimilating data of surface wind or water vapor is not workable, implying that urban heat island effect may be an important factor in this extreme rainstorm.     

电解法处理船舶压载水的杀菌性能及机理研究

船舶压载水携带的微生物对目的海域的污染问题亟待解决。采用电解法,以渤海湾的海水为处理对象,以炭纤维材料为阴极,分别以碳棒、碳板和炭纤维为阳极,首先考察了施电2.00 V下3种阳极炭材料对应的杀菌效果,进而重点考查了碳板为阳极材料时施加不同槽压下的杀菌性能,并对其杀菌机理进行初步分析。结果表明,3种阳极材料对应的杀菌效果先后顺序为碳棒碳板炭纤维,各自的杀菌效果均较为明显,施电18 min时碳板对应的灭活率可达100%;以碳板为阳极时,施加槽压越高杀菌效果越显著,本研究范围内以1.81 V为佳,施电18 min时灭活率在99%以上;不同槽压下体系中氯离子浓度和p H都随时间整体呈减小趋势,一定程度上可用于解释杀菌作用过程。研究结果可为电解法处理船舶压载水提供参考和借鉴。     

全国重要矿产总量预测方法

全国重要矿产资源评价涉及25种重要矿产的近百种矿床类型,需要在1∶20万尺度水平圈定成矿预测远景区,并科学估算各远景区资源量,为国家矿产资源战略勘查和战略部署提供技术支撑。为了保证预测成果在同一层面上进行全国汇总,制定了全国一致的、标准的技术要求和方法。通过对中国以往一轮、二轮区划预测方法、全国矿产资源总量预测方法及国外最新预测方法的分析和总结,结合近年来预测理论的新发展,确定了全国重要矿产总量预测的理论基础是成矿系列理论、现代成矿动力学理论和综合信息矿产预测理论,采用的预测思路是矿床模型综合地质信息预测方法。文章陈述了总量预测的方法流程和预测技术要求,有关方法思路可供资源评价人员参考。     

海泥环境中阴极保护的边界元计算

根据阴极保护的特点,建立了用于数值计算的模型;采用边界元方法对海泥介质中的阴极保护系统进行了计算,获得了海泥中钢管表面以及海泥介质内部的电位分布。将计算的结果与测量的数据进行比较,两者具有较好的一致性。     

广西防城港海域沉积物粒度时空变化特征及沉积速率

为了解防城港海域沉积演化规律,对防城港近岸海域垂直海岸线方向上的5个柱状沉积物进行粒度分析和²¹⁰Pb同位素测年,分别得到5个柱状样的粒度参数变化特征、沉积物类型,同时计算沉积速率并结合防城港地貌及人类活动分析了物质来源、沉积动力及沉积速率影响因素。结果表明：柱状样FC13Z、FC16Z及FC12Z在深度60 cm以上层位的粒度参数变化范围相对较小,表明其所处的沉积环境相对较稳定,柱状样FC14Z、FC15Z及FC12Z在深度60 cm以下层位的粒度参数变化范围相对较大,表明其所处的沉积环境相对波动;沉积物分选性较差-差,偏态属于近对称-正偏,峰态很平坦;研究区柱状沉积物可分为砂质粉砂、粉砂、砂质泥、泥质砂、含砾泥质砂、含砾泥和泥7种类型;由近岸到前缘沉积物以砂为主逐渐过渡为以泥为主,沉积速率呈现出逐渐降低的趋势;沉积物来源主要为河流输入及沿岸侵蚀物,沉积动力主要来自于潮流和近岸流系;沉积速率受潮流影响较大。研究结果可为防城港近岸海域沉积环境与地貌演变研究提供参考依据。