模式探空的评估分析及其在强对流天气预报中的应用研究

分析华南地区强对流天气高发季节(4～5月)的模式探空与实际观测的比较结果.从模式探空的直接评估分析中发现,地面和较高层次的预报要素误差比较大,而中间层次误差比较小,在比较多个观测站和实时预报误差分析的基础上初步探讨其可能的原因.在不稳定度指数评估分析中发现,仅考虑中间层次要素的不稳定度指数性能比较稳定,而考虑地面要素的一些不稳定度指数则有可能比较敏感,在用地面观测订正后其质量有很大的提高.在强对流天气个例的应用研究中,认为逐时预报的模式探空有非常好的应用价值,以订正的对流有效位能指数为例进行了一些分析,表     

SeaWinds散射计海面风场的几何反演算法

基于SeaWinds散射计雷达后向散射截面积随风速和相对方位角的变化规律, 从信息图谱几何形态特征出发, 提出了一种新的海面风场反演方法。它不同于传统的依据最小概率误差的遍历搜索算法, 反演时不依赖方差, 仅从信息图谱几何形态特征就可以反演风矢量。实验共用了218623条数据(即218623个风元)。实验结果表明, 与对应的美国NASA反演数据(L2B)对比, 风速平均相对偏差为7.4%, 风向平均偏差为9.5°。     

A Method of Initial Vortex Relocation and Numerical Simulation Experiments on Tropical Cyclone Track

Using the technique of smooth filtering and cylindrical filtering, the initial vortex circulation and large-scale environmental field were separated from the background field. Then the separated initial vortex circulation was translated and reinserted in the location where it was observed. This led to the determination of a method of initial vortex relocation. For seven tropical cyclones at 23 points of measurement time in the years of 2006 and 2007, two schemes, either directly adding a tropical cyclone bogus model in the background or adding it after the relocation of the initial vortex in the background field, were employed. Simulation experiments were compared. The results showed that the mean errors of the simulated tropical cyclone tracks at 24 and 48 hours were both smaller with the scheme of adding tropical cyclone bogus model after the relocation of the initial vortex in the background field. The relocation method of the initial vortex decreases the error caused by the deviation of the initial tropical cyclone location in tropical cyclone models. The relocation method is conducive to improving the track forecast of tropical cyclone models and has a good perspective for operational application.     

河北柏乡县王家庄一带干热岩资源赋存分布特征及开发利用前景

河北省柏乡县王家庄一带因受深部地壳结构和区域大地构造控制,其地温场分布呈现高温异常的特征,具备良好的干热岩赋存背景.本文通过对河北省柏乡县王家庄一带的大地热流值、莫霍面埋深、重力场特征、居里等温面深度等方面进行综合分析,总结了区内干热岩形成的地热地质特征.随后从热储、热源、盖层及地温梯度四个方面阐述区内干热岩地热资源的...     

胶东金银矿石英主微量元素化学成分特征及意义

石英是自然界分布很广的矿物,是金矿中重要的载金矿物之一,在金矿的各个成矿阶段均有出现。目前对胶东各类型金银矿中石英的化学成分标型研究还较薄弱。该文对胶东各类型金银矿中成矿期石英的化学成分进行了详细研究,结果表明,各金银矿中石英中K/Na,Al,Na-K-Al和(Na+K)-Al参数均有显著区别,可用于区分胶东各类型金银矿,以上区别和各金银矿不同的成矿环境密切相关。以上结论对胶东各金银矿的成因和找矿具有借鉴意义。     

水生动物来源的抗肿瘤活性肽作用机制研究进展

<正>生物活性肽能调节人体多种生理功能,有提高免疫、抗肿瘤、抗病毒和降血压等作用,而且肽类物质的结构类型十分丰富,有巨大的药物活性筛选潜力,是当前国际药品与保健品界最热门的研究对象和极具发展前景的功能因子[1]。在中国,生物活性肽开发利用的研究起步较晚,易杨华等[2]从棕色扁海绵(Phakellia fusca)中获得一个具有较好抗肿瘤活性的新型类环七肽的phakellistatin(Pro-Gly-Phe-ProTrp-Leu-Thr),这也是首次从产于中国海域的     

Raindrop Size Distribution Parameters Retrieved from Xinfeng C-Band Polarimetric Radar Observations

The objective of this research was to acquire a raindrop size distribution (DSDs) retrieved from C-band polarimetric radar observations scheme for the first time in south China.An observation period of the precipitation process was selected,and the shape-slope (μ-Λ) relationship of this region was statistically analyzed using the raindrop sample observations from the two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) at Xinfeng Station,Guangdong Province.Simulated data of the C-band polarimetric radar reflectivity Z_(HH)and differential reflectivity Z_(DR)were obtained through scattering simulation.The simulation data were combined with DSD fitting to determine the Z_(DR)-Λand log_(10)(Z_(HH)/N_0)-Λrelationships.Using Xinfeng C-band polarimetric radar observations Z_(DR)and Z_(HH),the raindrop Gamma size distribution parametersμ,Λ,and N_0were retrieved.A scheme for using C-band polarimetric radar to retrieve the DSDs was developed.This research revealed that during precipitation process,the DSDs obtained using the C-band polarimetric radar retrieval scheme are similar to the 2DVD observations,the precipitation characteristics of rainfall intensity (R),mass-weighted mean diameter (D_m) and intercept parameter (N_w) with time obtained by radar retrieval are basically consistent with the observational results of the 2DVD.This scheme establishes the relationship between the observations of the C-band polarimetric radar and the physical quantities of the numerical model.This method not only can test the prediction of the model data assimilation system on the convective scale and determine error sources,but also can improve the microphysical precipitation processes analysis and radar quantitative precipitation estimation.The present research will facilitate radar data assimilation in the future.     

有云环境下MODIS亮温资料的变分同化Ⅱ——对暴雨预报的影响

卫星资料提供了大量关于云和雨的观测信息,在暴雨预报中可发挥巨大的作用,然而在数值模式资料同化中的应用水平仍然不高,特别是红外辐射资料的应用。由于有云环境下辐射传输过程的模拟难度很大,因此通常只同化晴空环境下的红外辐射资料。基于GRAPES-3DVAR(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System,全球/区域同化预报系统),根据RTTOV辐射传输模式(fast radiative transfer model for TOVS,快速辐射传输模式)的特点,增加云水含量、云冰水含量和云量作为同化系统控制变量,在改进辐射传输模式对红外资料模拟的同时,利用红外资料调整初始云参数和大气参数。针对2007年5月26日南海季风爆发后广东地区的一次暴雨过程,选取MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer,中分辨成像光谱仪)传感器水汽(第27)和云顶观测(第36)通道进行了同化试验,利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model,天气研究和预报模式)进行了数值模拟,结果表明同化MODIS资料,可以改进初始场水汽和温度分布,间接调整高空风场,调整趋势符合卫星观测,对短时降水预报有正面影响。     

EOS/MODIS接收系统的维修及性能的完善

介绍安装在广州气象卫星地面站的EOS卫星MODIS数据接收系统的组成和工作原理、系统运行后出现的故障和维修范例。     

一种基于VB求解小流域设计洪峰流量的图解方法

1958年陈家琦等人提出了计算小流域设计洪峰流量的水利科学院推理公式法。该方法以暴雨形成洪水的成因分析为基础,建立计算模型,一般情况下能够较好地反映流域的产、汇流关系,具有很好的实用性。本文针对现行推理公式参数计算中存在的问题提出一种基于VB(Visual Basic)编程语言的计算机化的图解方法。应用实例表明,相比于传统图解法和迭代法,基于VB求解推理公式参数的方法可实现计算机自动绘图自动求解,不但计算简捷直观,而且精度高,便于工程使用。