Reservoir rainfall‐runoff geomorphological model. II: analysis,calibration and validation

The model presented in the complementary document entitled, Reservoir rainfall‐runoff geomorphological model I: parameter application and analysis is analysed, calibrated and validated in this paper. The accuracy of simulated hydrographs is analysed by means of the efficiency defined by Nash and Sutcliffe. The sensitivity of the influence of five parameters on the behaviour of the model developed is analysed. Two different calibration and validation processes of Reservoir rainfall‐runoff geomorphological model are performed in Aixola watershed. Twelve events have been selected for calibrations and 25 for validations. With the first calibration and validation process, the model parameters are set by assigning the medians' values of the distributions obtained by means of the optimum results. The second process is performed by calibrating the most determinant parameter in the adjustment, which is the one that indicates the proportion of infiltrated water that is retained and does not flow; this is done with an empirical formulation depending on the event characteristics. Subsequently, the obtained results are validated. This last process has achieved very good adjustments in both calibrated and validated events. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rockfall hazard in the Daisekkei Valley, the northern Japanese Alps, on 11 August 2005

This paper describes a rockfall event in the Daisekkei Valley of Mount Shirouma-dake (2,932 m), the northern Japanese Alps. The rockfall occurred on a steep cliff comprising well-jointed felsites and produced debris of ≥8,000 m³. Most debris was deposited on an elongated snowpatch located immediately beneath the cliff, and it caused casualties among people who were trekking along a trail on the snowpatch. Additionally, a large rock block slipped 1 km on the snowpatch. The rockfall could have been due to the differential retreat of the rockwall, which contains areas of high- and low-density joints. Seasonal and diurnal freeze–thaw activities and snow avalanches and wash appear to be important factors responsible for the retreat. Although some rock blocks that can collapse further remain on the rockwall, the position of the mountain trail in the Daisekkei Valley is fixed. Fundamental reform of tourism systems for climbers, including education on natural hazards, is required.     

Dominant amphipods of Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows display considerable trophic diversity

Gut content examination and trophic markers (fatty acids, stable isotopes of C and N) were combined to delineate the diet of the dominant species of amphipods from Mediterranean Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows and to highlight trophic diversity among this community. Our results indicate that, although all dominant species heavily relied on macroalgal epiphytes, considerable interspecific dietary differences existed. Carbon stable isotope ratios notably showed that some of the amphipod species favored grazing on epiphytes from leaves or litter fragments (Apherusa chiereghinii, Aora spinicornis, Gammarus aequicauda), while others such as Dexamine spiniventris preferred epiphytes from rhizomes. The remaining amphipods (Caprella acanthifera, Ampithoe helleri and Gammarella fucicola) readily consumed both groups. In addition, SIAR modeling suggested that most species had a mixed diet, and relied on several food items. Fatty acid analysis and gut contents revealed that contributions of microepiphytic diatoms and of benthic and suspended particulate organic matter to the diet of amphipods were anecdotal. None of the examined species seemed to graze on their seagrass host [low 18:2(n‐6) and 18:3(n‐3) fatty acids contents], but Gammarus aequicauda partly relied on seagrass leaf detritus, as demonstrated by the lesser ¹³C‐depletion of their tissues. Overall, our findings suggest that amphipods, because of their importance in the transfer of organic matter from primary producers and detritus to higher rank consumers, are key items in P. oceanica‐associated food webs.     

Structure de socle,sismostratigraphie et héritage structural au cours du rifting au niveau de la marge d'Ifni/Tan-Tan (Maroc sud-occidental)

Seismic reflection profiles from the Ifni/Tan-Tan Atlantic margin of southern Morocco, interpreted in the light of well data and field geology from the Western Anti-Atlas, allowed us to establish the seismostratigraphic framework of the syn-rift series and to reveal (i) a compressional structural style in the pre-Triassic basement similar to that established in the adjacent outcropping onshore basement but with an opposed western vergence, (ii) the importance of inherited anterior structures in the formation of Triassic-Liassic rift structures and (iii) an east–west propagation of these rift structures. To cite this article: N. AbouAli et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

A Time Monte Carlo method for addressing uncertainty in land-use change models

One of the main objectives of land-use change models is to explore future land-use patterns. Therefore, the issue of addressing uncertainty in land-use forecasting has received an increasing attention in recent years. Many current models consider uncertainty by including a randomness component in their structure. In this paper, we present a novel approach for tuning uncertainty over time, which we refer to as the Time Monte Carlo (TMC) method. The TMC uses a specific range of randomness to allocate new land uses. This range is associated with the transition probabilities from one land use to another. The range of randomness is increased over time so that the degree of uncertainty increases over time. We compare the TMC to the randomness components used in previous models, through a coupled logistic regression-cellular automata model applied for Wallonia (Belgium) as a case study. Our analysis reveals that the TMC produces results comparable with existing methods over the short-term validation period (2000–2010). Furthermore, the TMC can tune uncertainty on longer-term time horizons, which is an essential feature of our method to account for greater uncertainty in the distant future.     

Modelling wind-erosion risk in the Laghouat region (Algeria) using geomatics approach

Wind-erosion risk is a challenge that threatens land development in dry-land regions. Soil analysis, remote sensing, climatic, vegetal cover and topographic data were used in a geographic information system (GIS), using multi-criteria analysis (MCA) to map wind-erosion risk (R_we) in Laghouat, Algeria. The approach was based on modelling the risk and incorporating topographic and climatic effects. The maps were coded according to their sensitivity to wind erosion and to their socio-economic potential, from low to very high. By overlapping the effects of these layers, qualitative maps were drawn to reflect the potential sensitivity to wind erosion per unit area. The results indicated that severe wind erosion affects mainly all the southern parts and some parts in the north of Laghouat, where wind-erosion hazard (H_we) is very high in 43% of the total area, and which was affected mainly by natural parameters such as soil, topography and wind. The results also identified features vulnerable to R_we. The product of the hazard and the stake maps indicated the potential risk areas that need preventive measures; this was more than half of the study area, making it essential to undertake environmental management and land-use planning.     

Contribution of rock magnetism to stratigraphy and palaeoenvironment of the Karaïn cave infill,Antalya, Turkey

The magnetic properties of the infill of the Karaïn cave in Turkey were compared to the results of a sedimentological study on three longitudinal sections. The sediments of this site, namely cavity E, cover a period of ca. 500 ka and correspond to a large part of the Middle and Upper Pleistocene. The evolution observed for the various magnetic parameters is mainly related to climatic changes which followed one another during the infilling history of the cave. Two preconditions are necessary to understand the environmental magnetism, namely both the identification and the quantification of different magnetic phases (components) in the sediments, expressed by the ratio of the various magnetic parameters and the analysis of the magnetization curves. The results obtained through the study of the different magnetic parameters (low-field initial bulk (κ_lf) and mass (χ_lf) magnetic susceptibility, frequency dependence of the magnetic susceptibility (χ_fd), anhysteretic remanent magnetization (ARM), hysteresis parameters, anhysteretic susceptibility, ...) on 171 samples allowed us: 1 — to follow the nature, size and source of the grains at each level, and 2 — to identify six alternating levels, having different magnetic susceptibility signatures during warm, damp periods, in which the contribution of prehistorical hominidae (Homo Sapiens or Homo Neandertalensis) and animals, could have modified the original sedimentary structures.This study, in agreement with the sedimentological results, suggests a significant difference between sandy or sandy-silty levels (3 and 5) and those rich in clays and concretions. The sandy or sandy-silty levels are mainly characterized by a low amount of antiferromagnetic type grains, likely goethite and hematite, dominated by single-domain size (SD) and a small content of ferrimagnetic type grains, likely magnetite of multidomain size (MD), inherited from the host rock. Antiferromagnetic grains did not develop and were a priori drifted by the wind. They could be contemporaneous with a cold climate.The clays and clayey-silty levels are characterized by a large amount of superparamagnetic (SP) and SD grains, and a high content of low coercivity magnetic grains (magnetite, maghemite and Ti-magnetite). The saturation remanent magnetization (SIRM) of clayey levels is 5 to 10 times higher than that of sandy levels. The clayey levels are contemporaneous with a humid climate, which favoured the formation of secondary iron oxides, of stalagmitic floors and calcite concretions and of the emplacement of local pedogenesis phenomena, mainly at the top of the infill, i.e. in Level 6.