Monitoring the Kuroshio Extension with Dynamically Constrained Synthesis of the Acoustic Tomography, Satellite Altimeter and in situ Data

A finite-difference quasigeostrophic (QG) model of an open ocean region has been employed to produce a dynamically constrained synthesis of acoustic tomography and satellite altimetry data with in situ observations. The assimilation algorithm is based upon the 4D variational data interpolation scheme controlled by the model's initial and boundary conditions. The data sets analyzed include direct and differential travel times measured at the array of five acoustic transceivers deployed by JAMSTEC in the region of the Kuroshio Extension in 1997, Topex/Poseidon altimetry, CTD soundings, and ADCP velocity profiles. The region monitored is located within the area 27.5°–36.5°N, 143°–155°. The results of assimilation show that mesoscale variability can be effectively reconstructed by five transceivers measuring direct and reciprocal travel times supported by relatively sparse in situ measurements. The misfits between model and data lie within the observational error bars for all the data types used in assimilation. We have compared the results of assimilation with the statistical inversion of travel time data and analyzed energy balances of the optimized model solution. Energy exchange between the depth-averaged and shear components of the observed currents reveals a weak decay of the barotropic mode at the rate of 0.2 ± 0.7⋅10⁻⁵ cm²/s³ due to topographic interaction. Mean currents in the region are unstable with an estimate of the available potential energy flux from the mean current to the eddies of 4.7 ± 2.3⋅10⁻⁵ cm²/s³. Kinetic energy transition has the same sign and is estimated as 2.8 ± 2.5⋅10⁻⁵ cm²/s³. Potential enstrophy is transferred to the mesoscale at a rate of 5.5 ± 2.7⋅10⁻¹⁸ s⁻³. These figures provide observational evidence of the properties of free geostrophic turbulence which were predicted by theory and observed in numerical experiments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Comet Halley's dust drag perturbing the Giotto spacecraft

Hypervelocity impact sputter causes impulses substantially greater than the initial momenta of micro-grains of comet Halley's dust coma, the effective factor being discontinuous at the dust mass (0.2 g) that just penetrates the spacecraft bumper shield. Marginally non-penetrating grains determine the net drag and torque, calculated here for the Giotto shield and exposed components. The torque due to asymmetries induces a precession of the spacecraft axis, whose amplitude is solved for passage through the model dust coma, to find slowly damped oscillations of significant (1°) amplitude.     

Amphibole composition in tonalite as a function of pressure: an experimental calibration of the Al-in-hornblende barometer

The Al-in-hornblende barometer, which correlates Al^tot content of magmatic hornblende linearly with crystallization pressure of intrusion (Hammarstrom and Zen 1986), has been calibrated experimentally under water-saturated conditions at pressures of 2.5–13 kbar and temperatures of 700–655°C. Equilibration of the assemblage hornlende-biotite-plagioclase-orthoclasequartz-sphene-Fe-Ti-oxide-melt-vapor from a natural tonalite 15–20° above its wet solidus results in hornblende compositions which can be fit by the equation: P(±0.6 kbar) = –3.01 + 4.76 Al _hbl ^tot r ²=0.99, where Al^tot is the total Al content of hornblende in atoms per formula unit (apfu). Al^tot increase with pressure can be ascribed mainly to a tschermak-exchange ( ) accompanied by minor plagioclase-substitution ( ). This experimental calibration agrees well with empirical field calibrations, wherein pressures are estimated by contact-aureole barometry, confirming that contact-aureole pressures and pressures calculated by the Al-in-hornblende barometer are essentially identical. This calibration is also consistent with the previous experimental calibration by Johnson and Rutherford (1989b) which was accomplished at higher temperatures, stabilizing the required buffer assemblage by use of mixed H₂O-CO₂ fluids. The latter calibration yields higher Al^tot content in hornblendes at corresponding pressures, this can be ascribed to increased edenite-exchange ( ) at elevated temperatures. The comparison of both experimental calibrations shows the important influence of the fluid composition, which affects the solidus temperature, on equilibration of hornblende in the buffering phase assemblage.     

Stochastic scattering and other contributions to the Sun's wake in the local hydrogen cloud

Gas streaming through the solar system experiences both destructive and scattering processes, the latter primarily in collisional interactions with the solar wind protons. The scattering interactions can be important in filling the downstream wake. They may effectively increase the velocity dispersion and also cause discrete orbit changes.The downstream intensity moment is here evaluated analytically for particles suffering a single, discrete collision, and compared with the moment from a thermal velocity dispersion (both in the absence of a central force field). The elastic scattering collisions of protons in H-gas lead to a contribution to theL backscatter from the wake equivalent to an initial thermal velocity of about 1 km s^–1, giving an intensity for cool gas of the order of 10R. This exceeds the contribution due to focussing in the solar gravitational field if the radiation pressure is not less than 0.8 of the gravitational attraction.     

Most likely locations of large earthquakes in the Kanto and Tokai areas, Japan, based on the local recurrence times

We examined the hypothesis that minima in local recurrence time, T_L, or equivalently maxima in local probability, P_L, may map asperities in the Kanto and Tokai areas of Japan, where the earthquake catalog of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) is complete at the M=1.5 (M1.5) level. We mapped T_L (P_L) based on the a- and b-values of the nearest earthquakes within 20 km of every node of a grid spaced 0.01° for M7 target events. Only earthquakes within the top 33 km were used. The b-values increase strongly with depth, in several areas. Therefore, some of the T_L (P_L) anomalies are not revealed if data from the entire crustal seismogenic zone are mixed. Thus, we mapped T_L (P_L) separately for the top 15 km and the rest of the depth range, as well as for the entire seismogenic crust. The resulting T_L- and P_L-maps show that approximately 12% of the total area shows anomalously short recurrence times. Out of six shallow target events with M≥6.5 and which occurred since 1890, five are located within the anomalous areas with T_L <450 years. We interpret this to mean that areas with anomalously short T_L map asperities, which are more likely than other areas to generate future target events. The probability that this result is due to chance is vanishingly small. The great Kanto rupture of 1923 appears to have initiated in the most significant asperity we mapped in the study area. One anomaly is located in the northeastern part of the area of the proposed future rupture of the Tokai earthquake, and another one at its southwestern corner. The absolute values of T_L calculated are uncertain because they depend on the size of the volume used for the calculation.     

PHYSIOGRAPHY,FORAMINIFERA AND SEDIMENTATION IN THE Dovey Estuary (Wales)

A study of the chemistry, circulation and sedimentation is followed by an outline account of the living and dead communities (particularly foraminifera) characteristic of the main physiographic subenvironments. On the basis of the relationships established these results are used in an interpretation of the vertical sequence.     

临界转换的早期预警信号

从生态系统到金融市场和气候在内的很多复杂动力系统,都会有临界点,在这样的点上系统可能会发生突变,从而演变到一个对立的动力模式上。在这样的临界点到达之前对其进行预测极为困难,但是现在,不同科学领域的研究工作表明,普遍性的早期预警信号有迹可循。对一系列不同类型的系统来说,这些信号会指示是否正在趋近一个临界阈值。     

Free allocation in the 3rd EU ETS period: assessing two manufacturing sectors

This article provides an analysis of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and the harmonized benchmark-based allocation procedures by comparing two energy-intensive sectors with activities in three Member States. These sectors include the cement industry (CEI) and the pulp and paper industry (PPI) in the UK, Sweden, and France. Our results show that the new procedures are better suited for the more homogeneous CEI, in which the outcome of stricter allocation of emissions allowances is consistent between Member States. For the more heterogeneous PPI – in terms of its product portfolios, technical infrastructures, and fuel mixes – the allocation procedures lead to diverse outcomes. It is the lack of product benchmark curves, and the alternative use of benchmark values that are biased towards a fossil fuel-mix and are based on specific energy use rather than emission intensity, which leads to allocations to the PPI that do not represent the average performance of the top 10% of GHG-efficient installations. Another matter is that grandfathering is still present via the historically based production volumes. How to deal with structural change and provisions regarding capacity reductions and partial cessation is an issue that is highly relevant for the PPI but less so for the CEI.

Policy relevance

After an unprecedented amount of consultation with industrial associations and other stakeholders, a harmonized benchmark-based allocation methodology was introduced in the third trading period of the EU ETS. Establishing a reliable and robust benchmark methodology for free allocation that shields against high direct carbon costs, is perceived as fair and politically acceptable, and still incentivizes firms to take action, is a significant challenge. This article contributes to a deeper understanding of the challenges in effectively applying harmonized rules in industrial sectors that are heterogeneous. This is essential for the debate on structural reformation of the EU ETS, and for sharing experiences with other emerging emissions trading systems in the world that also consider benchmark methodologies.