Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001     

Low-oxygen and chemical kinetic constraints on the geochemical niche of neutrophilic iron(II) oxidizing microorganisms

Neutrophilic iron oxidizing bacteria (FeOB) must actively compete with rapid abiotic processes governing Fe(II) oxidation and as a result have adapted to primarily inhabit low-O₂ environments where they can more successfully compete with abiotic Fe(II) oxidation. The spatial distribution of these microorganisms can be observed through the chemical gradients they affect, as measured using in situ voltammetric analysis for dissolved Fe(II), Fe(III), O₂, and FeS_(aq). Field and laboratory determination of the chemical environments inhabited by the FeOB were coupled with detailed kinetic competition studies for abiotic and biotic oxidation processes using a pure culture of FeOB to quantify the geochemical niche these organisms inhabit. In gradient culture tubes, the maximum oxygen levels, which were associated with growth bands of Sideroxydans lithotrophicus (ES-1, a novel FeOB), were 15-50 μM. Kinetic measurements made on S. lithotrophicus compared biotic/abiotic (killed control) Fe oxidation rates. The biotic rate can be a significant and measurable fraction of the total Fe oxidation rate below O₂ concentrations of approximately 50 μM, but biotic Fe(II) oxidation (via the biotic/abiotic rate comparison) becomes difficult to detect at higher O₂ levels. These results are further supported by observations of conditions supporting FeOB communities in field settings. Variablity in cell densities and cellular activity as well as variations in hydrous ferrous oxide mineral quantities significantly affect the laboratory kinetic rates. The microbial habitat (or geochemical niche) where FeOB are active is thus largely controlled by the competition between abiotic and biotic kinetics, which are dependent on Fe(II) concentration, P_O2, temperature and pH in addition to the surface area of hydrous ferric oxide minerals and the cell density/activity of FeOB. Additional field and lab culture observations suggest a potentially important role for the iron-sulfide aqueous molecular cluster, FeS_(aq), in the overall cycling of iron associated with the environments these microorganisms inhabit.     

Drought and institutional adaptation in the Great Plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan, 1914–1939

Agriculture in the southern Great Plains of Canada has been particularly vulnerable to prolonged episodes of drought. Using climate data and a precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration index, the extent of the region’s exposure to drought is examined. Between 1914 and 1917, the Dry Belt was particularly vulnerable to drought, whereas after 1928, a much larger region known as the Palliser Triangle covering most of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan was much more exposed to drought. These droughts provoked major institutional adaptation, in particular the establishment of the Special Areas Board by the Government of Alberta, and the creation of the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration by the Government of Canada. Both organizations have proved to be relatively permanent public adaptations to the natural hazard of drought in the region. Moreover, these earlier experiences with prolonged drought as well as institution-building may be of value in helping the residents of the Palliser Triangle adapt to predicted climate changes in the future as well as anticipate some of the barriers to effective institutional adaptation.     

Atmospheric forcing of fine-sand transport on a low-energy inner shelf: south-central Louisiana,USA

Hydrodynamic and sediment transport measurements from instrumentation deployed during a 54-day winter period at two sites on the Louisiana inner shelf are presented. Strong extratropical storms, with wind speeds of 7.8 to 15.1 m s^-1, were the dominant forcing mechanism during the study. These typically caused mean oscillatory flows and shear velocities about 33% higher than fair weather (averaging 12.3 and 3.2 cm s^-1 at the landward site, and 11.4 and 2.7 cm s^-1 at the seaward site, respectively). These responses were coupled with mean near-bottom currents more than twice as strong as during fair weather (10.3 and 7.5 cm s^-1 at the landward and seaward sites, respectively). These flowed in approximately the same direction as the veering wind, causing a net offshore transport of fine sand. Weak storms were responsible for little sediment transport whereas during fair weather, onshore sand transport of approximately 25-75% of the storm values appears to have occurred. This contradicts previous predictions of negligible fair-weather sediment movement on this inner shelf.     

The importance of extratropical and tropical cyclones on the short-term evolution of barrier islands along the northern Gulf of Mexico, USA

Data are presented indicating the complexity and highly variable response of beaches to cold front passages along the northern Gulf of Mexico, in addition to the impacts of tropical cyclones and winter storms. Within the past decade, an increase in the frequency of tropical storms and hurricanes impacting the northern Gulf has dramatically altered the long-term equilibrium of a large portion of this coast. A time series of net sediment flux for subaerial and nearshore environments has been established for a section of this coast in Florida, and to a lesser extent, Mississippi. The data incorporate the morphological signature of six tropical storms/hurricanes and more than 200 frontal passages.

Data indicate that (1) barrier islands can conserve mass during catastrophic hurricanes (e.g., Hurricane Opal, a strong category 4 hurricane near landfall); (2) less severe hurricanes and tropical storms can promote rapid dune aggradation and can contribute sediment to the entire barrier system; (3) cold fronts play a critical role in the poststorm adjustment of the barrier by deflating the subaerial portion of the overwash terrace and eroding its marginal lobe along the bayside beach through locally generated, high frequency, steep waves; and (4) barrier systems along the northern Gulf do not necessarily enter an immediate poststorm recovery phase, although nested in sediment-rich nearshore environments. While high wave energy conditions associated with cold fronts play an integral role in the evolution and maintenance of barriers along the northern Gulf, these events are more effective in reworking sediment after the occurrence of extreme events such as hurricanes. This relationship is even more apparent during the clustering of tropical cyclones.

It is anticipated that these findings will have important implications for the longer term evolution of barrier systems in midlatitude, microtidal settings where the clustering of storms is apparent, and winter storms are significant in intensity and frequency along the coast.     

Sources and biogeochemical cycling of particulate selenium in the San Francisco Bay estuary

As part of a study of estuarine selenium cycling, we measured the concentration, chemical form (speciation), and distribution of particulate selenium under various river flow conditions in the North San Francisco Bay (from the Golden Gate to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers). We also conducted laboratory studies on the accumulation of selenium by phytoplankton, the critical first step in the transformation of dissolved to particulate selenium. Total particulate selenium concentration in the North SF Bay was relatively constant between high and low flow periods, ranging spatially from 0.05 to 0.35 nmol l⁻¹ and comprising between 5 and 12% of the total water column selenium inventory. Mean concentrations were generally highest in the Carquinez Strait–Suisun Bay region (salinity 0–17) and lowest in Central Bay. However, selenium content of suspended particles varied with river flow, with higher content during low flow (9.76 ± 4.17 nmol g⁻¹; mean ± sd; n = 67) compared to high flow (7.10 ± 4.24 nmol g⁻¹; n = 39). Speciation analyses showed that most particulate selenium is organic selenide (45 ± 27%), with a smaller proportion (typically <30%) of adsorbed selenite + selenate and a varying proportion (35 ± 28%) of elemental selenium. Based on the amount of elemental selenium in the seston (total suspended material), we calculate that resuspension of estuarine sediments could contribute 29–100% of particulate selenium in the water column. While selenium content of SF Bay seston (>0.4 μm) is relatively unenriched compared to phytoplankton (13.6–155 nmol g⁻¹ dry weight) on a mass basis, when normalized to carbon or nitrogen, seston contains a similar selenium concentration to SF Bay sediments or phytoplankton cultures. SF Bay seston is thus comprised of selenium-rich phytoplankton and phyto-detritus, but also inorganic clay mineral particles that effectively “dilute” total particulate selenium. Selenium concentrations in algal cultures (11 species) exposed to 90 nmol l⁻¹ selenite show relatively large differences in selenium accumulation, with the diatoms, chlorophytes and cryptophytes generally having lower selenium cell content (3.8 ± 2.7 × 10⁻⁹ nmol selenium cell⁻¹) compared to the dinoflagellates (193 ± 73 × 10⁻⁹ nmol selenium cell⁻¹). Because phytoplankton are such a rich (but variable) source of selenium, their dynamics could have a profound effect on the particulate selenium inventory in the North SF Bay.     

Virgin plastic granules on some beaches of Eastern Canada and Bermuda

A survey has been made of the quantities of small virgin plastic pellets and granules present in the litter stranding on shores of eastern Canada and Bermuda. Whilst particularly abundant on beaches of Bermuda, they are most uncommon on those of Nova Scotia and Sable Island—this, it is interpreted, reflects broad oceanic circulation patterns, lengthy residence times and distant sources, for there are no significant local ones. The polyethylene character of the granules was confirmed through burning characteristics and infra-red spectrophotometry. Polystyrene spherules were not identified. These plastic granules are commonly associated with pelagic tar balls and many have a tarry coating.The granules support a restricted, encrusting pseudoplanktonic biota, including serpulid worms and coralline algae, similar to that found on floating Sargassum. It is concluded, however, that their environmental consequence is not great.Although plastic granules progressively disappear through oxidative ageing and other degradational processes, they are an unnecessary contaminant of marine waters and evidence of evergrowing oceanic litter.     

Application of environmental groundwater tracers at the Sulphur Bank Mercury Mine, California, USA

Boron, chloride, sulfate, δD, δ¹⁸O, and ³H concentrations in surface water and groundwater samples from the Sulphur Bank Mercury Mine (SBMM), California, USA were used to examine geochemical processes and provide constraints on evaporation and groundwater flow. SBMM is an abandoned sulfur and mercury mine with an underlying hydrothermal system, adjacent to Clear Lake, California. Results for non-³H tracers (i.e., boron, chloride, sulfate, δD, and δ¹⁸O) identify contributions from six water types at SBMM. Processes including evaporation, mixing, hydrothermal water input and possible isotopic exchange with hydrothermal gases are also discerned. Tritium data indicate that hydrothermal waters and other deep groundwaters are likely pre-bomb (before ~1952) in age while most other waters were recharged after ~1990. A boron-based steady-state reservoir model of the Herman Impoundment pit lake indicates that 71–79% of its input is from meteoric water with the remainder from hydrothermal contributions. Results for groundwater samples from six shallow wells over a 6–month period for δD and δ¹⁸O suggests that water from Herman Impoundment is diluted another 3% to more than 40% by infiltrating meteoric water, as it leaves the site. Results for this investigation show that environmental tracers are an effective tool to understand the SBMM hydrogeologic regime.

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Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Résumé Les concentrations en bore, chlorure, sulfate, δD, δ¹⁸O, et ³H d’échantillons d’eaux de surface et souterraine prélevés dans le banc de soufre de la mine de mercure (SBMM en anglais) en Californie, USA, ont été utilisées pour étudier les processus géochimiques et pour fournir des contraintes à l’évaporation et à l’écoulement des eaux souterraines. La SBMM est une mine de soufre et de mercure abandonnée, adjacente au lac Clear en Californie et sous laquelle se trouve un système hydrothermal.Les résultats des traceurs autres que le tritium (bore, chlorure, sulfate, δD, et δ¹⁸O) ont permis d’identifier des contributions de six types d’eaux à SBMM. Des processus tels que l’évaporation, le mélange, l’entrée d’eau hydrothermale et de possibles échanges isotopiques avec des gaz hydrothermaux ont également été identifiés. Les données de tritium montrent que les eaux hydrothermales et d’autres eaux profondes sont probablement d’age antérieure à la bombe (avant ~1952), alors que la plupart des autres eaux sont issues de la recharge après ~1990. Un modèle de réservoir représentant le lac situé dans la partie Herman Impoundment de l’ancienne mine, en régime permanent et basé sur le bore, montre que 71–79% de l’eau provient des précipitations, le reste provenant de contributions hydrothermales. Les résultats de δD et δ¹⁸O pour des échantillons d’eau souterraine de six puits peu profonds sur une période de 6 mois suggèrent que l’eau de Hermann Impoundment est encore diluée entre 3% jusqu’à plus de 40% lorsqu’elle quitte le site du fait de l’infiltration d’eau météorique. Les résultats de cette étude montrent que les traceurs environnementaux constituent un outil efficace pour comprendre le régime hydrogéologique de la SBMM.

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Resumen Se han utilizado datos de concentraciones de boro, cloruros, sulfatos, δD, δ¹⁸O, y ³H en muestras de aguas superficiales y subterráneas procedentes de la Mina de Mercurio Sulphur Bank (SBMM), California, USA, para estudiar los procesos geoquímicos y caracterizar la evaporación y el flujo del agua subterránea. SBMM es una mina abandonada de azufre y mercurio con un sistema hidrotermal subyacente, cercano al Lago Clear, California.Los resultados de los trazadores que no son ³H (por ejemplo, boro, cloruros, sulfatos δD, y δ¹⁸O) identifican las contribuciones de seis tipos de agua en la SBMM. Se han identificado diversos procesos, como evaporación, mezcla, entrada de agua hidrotermal y la posibilidad de intercambios isotópicos con gases hidrotermales. Los datos de tritio indican que las aguas hidrotermales y otras aguas subterráneas profundas son probablemente pre-bombas (previas a ~1952) en edad mientras que la mayoría de las otras aguas se han recargado después de ~1990. Un modelo estacionario basado en el boro de la fosa del lago Herman Impoundment indica que el 71–79% de su entrada procede de agua meteórica con restos de contribución hidrotermal. Los resultados para las muestras de aguas subterráneas procedentes de seis pozos superficiales en un periodo de 6 meses para δD y δ¹⁸O sugieren que el agua procedente de Herman Impoundment se diluye en otro 3% hasta más del 40% debido a la infiltración de agua meteórica., que sale del sitio. Los resultados de esta investigación muestran que los trazadores ambientales son una herramienta efectiva para entender el régimen hidrogeológico de la SBMM.

     

40Ar39Ar ages of Allende

KAr and/or ⁴⁰Ar³⁹Ar plateau ages of Allende samples—whole rock, matrix, chondrules, white inclusions–range from 3.8 AE for matrix of ?5 AE for some white inclusions, but cluster strongly near 4.53 AE. This age marks the dominant KAr resetting of Allende materials. Age spectra show disturbances due to ³⁹Ar recoil or some other argon redistribution processes. Possible explanations for the apparent presolar ages (>4.6 AE) include: ?20% loss of ³⁹Ar; ?40% loss of ⁴⁰K ～3.8 AE ago with no loss of ⁴⁰Arl trapped argon of unique ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar isotopic composition; admixture of “very old” presolar grains.