The results of photometric observations of comet/asteroid 2060 Chiron at the Observatório do Pico dos Dias (Brazil-OPD) and the Observatoire de Haute-Provence (France-OHP) during 1994 and 1995 are presented. The analysis of the data shows a decrease of 2060 Chiron brightness from its peak values of 1988–1991. The absolute magnitude, Hv, varies from a maximum of 6.6 in February 1994 up to a minimum of 6.8 in June 1995. Therefore 2060 Chiron is back to a minimum of activity close to that of 1983–1985. The slope parameter G is found to be G = 0.71 ± 0.15. It is suggested that the H-G magnitude system, generally adopted to present 2060 Chiron brightness, is not the most appropriate due to the cometary activity of this object. 相似文献
This study investigates the global warming response of the Walker Circulation and the other zonal circulation cells (represented by the zonal stream function), in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models. The changes in the mean state are presented as well as the changes in the modes of variability. The mean zonal circulation weakens in the multi model ensembles nearly everywhere along the equator under both the RCP4.5 and SRES A1B scenarios. Over the Pacific the Walker Circulation also shows a significant eastward shift. These changes in the mean circulation are very similar to the leading mode of interannual variability in the tropical zonal circulation cells, which is dominated by El Niño Southern Oscillation variability. During an El Niño event the circulation weakens and the rising branch over the Maritime Continent shifts to the east in comparison to neutral conditions (vice versa for a La Niña event). Two-thirds of the global warming forced trend of the Walker Circulation can be explained by a long-term trend in this interannual variability pattern, i.e. a shift towards more El Niño-like conditions in the multi-model mean under global warming. Further, interannual variability in the zonal circulation exhibits an asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events. El Niño anomalies are located more to the east compared with La Niña anomalies. Consistent with this asymmetry we find a shift to the east of the dominant mode of variability of zonal stream function under global warming. All these results vary among the individual models, but the multi model ensembles of CMIP3 and CMIP5 show in nearly all aspects very similar results, which underline the robustness of these results. The observed data (ERA Interim reanalysis) from 1979 to 2012 shows a westward shift and strengthening of the Walker Circulation. This is opposite to what the results in the CMIP models reveal. However, 75 % of the trend of the Walker Circulation can again be explained by a shift of the dominant mode of variability, but here towards more La Niña-like conditions. Thus in both climate change projections and observations the long-term trends of the Walker Circulation seem to follow to a large part the pre-existing dominant mode of internal variability. 相似文献
In this paper it is suggested that a stochastic isotropic diffusive process, representing a spatial first order auto regressive
process (AR(1)-process), can be used as a null hypothesis for the spatial structure of climate variability. By comparing the
leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of a fitted null hypothesis with EOF modes of an observed data set, inferences
about the nature of the observed modes can be made. The concept and procedure of fitting the null hypothesis to the observed
EOFs is in analogy to time analysis, where an AR(1)-process is fitted to the statistics of the time series in order to evaluate
the nature of the time scale behavior of the time series. The formulation of a stochastic null hypothesis allows one to define
teleconnection patterns as those modes that are most distinguished from the stochastic null hypothesis. The method is applied
to several artificial and real data sets including the sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean and
the Northern Hemisphere wintertime and tropical sea level pressure. 相似文献
The Bozhong depression of the Bohaiwan basin belongs to a family of extensional basins in East China, but is quite different from other parts of the basin. The Cenozoic subsidence of the depression is controlled by a combination of lithospheric thinning and polycyclic strike-slip movements. Three episodic rifts have been identified, i.e. Paleocence-early Eocene, middle-late Eocene and Oligocene age. The depression underwent syn-rift and post-rift stages, but two episodic dextral movement events of the strike-slip faults modify the subsidence of the Bozhong depression since the Oligocene. The early dextral movement of the Tan-Lu fault associated with crustal extension resulted in accelerated subsidence during the time of deposition of the Dongying Formation with a maximum thickness of 4000 m. A late reactivation of dextral movement of the Tan-Lu fault began in late Miocene (about 12 Ma), which resulted in the intense subsidence of Minghuazhen Formation and Quaternary. In addition, dynamic mantle convection-driven topography also accelerated the post-rift anomalous subsidence since the Miocene (24.6 Ma). Our results indicate that the primary control on rapid subsidence both during the rift and post-rift stages in the Bozhong depression originates from a combination of multiple episodic crustal extension and polycyclic dextral movements of strike-slip faults, and dynamic topography. 相似文献
We present photoelectric photometry of λ And never before published, obtained between February 1982 and December 1990 at 29
different observatories. Then we combine it with all other photometry available to us (previously published, contained in
the I.A.U. Commission 27 Archives, and obtained with the Vanderbilt 16-inch automatic telescope but not yet published), to
yield a 14.8-year data base. Analysis reveals a long-term cycle in mean brightness, with a full range of 0m.15 and a period of 11.4 ± 0.4 years. Because most of our new photometry was concentrated in the 1983-84 observing season,
we analyze that one well-defined light curve with a two-spot model. Spot A keeps a 0m.04 amplitude throughout four rotation cycles whereas the amplitude of spot B diminishes from 0m.09 down almost to 0m.03. The spot rotation periods were 55d.9 ± 0d.6 and 520d.8 ± 1d.0, respectively. 相似文献
What are the effects of transitioning traditionally managed fisheries to incentive-based catch shares fisheries? In a study of all major United States federal catch share fisheries and associated shared stock fisheries in British Columbia, catch shares result in environmental improvements, economic improvements, and a mixture of changes in social performance, relative to the race for fish under traditional management. Environmentally, compliance with total allowable catch increases and discards decrease. Economically, vessel yields rise, total revenues grow, and long-term stock increases are encouraged. Socially, safety increases, some port areas modestly consolidate, needed processing capacity often reduces, and labor markets shift from part time jobs to full time jobs with similar total employment. Newer catch shares address many social concerns through careful design. 相似文献
This study investigates the influence of low ozone episodes on UV-B radiation in Austria during the period 1999 to 2015. To this aim observations of total column ozone (TCO) in the Greater Alpine Region (Arosa, Switzerland; Hohenpeissenberg, Germany; Hradec Kralove, Czech Republic; Sonnblick, Austria), and erythemal UV-B radiation, available from 12 sites of the Austrian UV-B monitoring network, are analyzed. As previous definitions for low ozone episodes are not particularly suited to investigate effects on UV radiation, a novel threshold approach—considering anomalies—is developed to provide a joint framework for the analysis of extremes. TCO and UV extremes are negatively correlated, although modulating effects of sunshine duration impact the robustness of the statistical relationship. Therefore, information on relative sunshine duration (SDrel), available at (or nearby) UV-B monitoring sites, is included as explanatory variable in the analysis. The joint analysis of anomalies of both UV index (UVI) and total ozone (∆UVI, ∆TCO) and SDrel across sites shows that more than 65% of observations with strongly negative ozone anomalies (∆TCO < −1) led to positive UVI anomalies. Considering only days with strongly positive UVI anomaly (∆UVI > 1), we find (across all sites) that about 90% correspond to negative ∆TCO. The remaining 10% of days occurred during fair weather conditions (SDrel ≥ 80%) explaining the appearance of ∆UVI > 1 despite positive TCO anomalies. Further, we introduce an anomaly amplification factor (AAF), which quantifies the expected change of the ∆UVI for a given change in ∆TCO.