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1.
We present an evaluation of the procedure by which model prediction bias is examined in palaeolimnological transfer function inference models. We argue that most of the prediction biases commonly reported in the literature are, in fact, fallacious, and are the artificial consequence of the inappropriate manner in which residuals are traditionally examined. We show that the extent of the specious model bias is entirely predictable from first principles and is essentially determined by the strength of the predictive model. We suggest that the analysis of residuals should always be examined as a function of the model's predictions and we discuss the implications of the old and new approaches. 相似文献
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Dagasan Yasin Renard Philippe Straubhaar Julien Erten Oktay Topal Erkan 《Natural Resources Research》2019,28(1):153-171
Natural Resources Research - Geological contacts in lateritic metal deposits (footwall topographies) often delineate the orebody boundaries. Spatial variations seen in such contacts are frequently... 相似文献
5.
Leopoldo Franco Jimmy Geeraerts Riccardo Briganti Marc Willems Giorgio Bellotti Julien De Rouck 《Coastal Engineering》2009
The paper presents the comparison between the results of small-scale model tests and prototype measurements of wave overtopping at a rubble-mound breakwater. The specific structure investigated is the west breakwater of the yacht harbour of Rome at Ostia (Italy) and is characterized by a gentle seaward slope (1/4) and by a long, shallow foreshore. The laboratory tests firstly aimed at carefully reproducing two measured storms in which overtopping occurred and was measured. The tests have been carried out in two independent laboratories, in a wave flume and in a wave basin, hence using a two-dimensional (2-D) and a three-dimensional (3-D) setup. In the 2-D laboratory tests no overtopping occurred during the storm reproductions; in the 3-D case discharges five to ten times smaller than those observed in prototype have been measured. This indicates the existence of model and scale effects. These effects have been discussed on the basis of the results of several parametric tests, which have been carried out in both laboratories, in addition to the storm reproductions, varying wave and water level characteristics. Final comparison of all the performed tests with 86 prototype measurements still suggests the existence of scale and model effects that induce strong underestimation of overtopping discharge at small scale. The scale reproduction of wave breaking on the foreshore, together with the 3-D features of the prototype conditions and the absence of wind stress in the laboratory measurements, have been individuated as the main sources of scale and model effects. The paper also provides a comparison between the data and a largely used formula for wave overtopping discharges in the presence of structures similar to the one at hand. The suitable value of a roughness factor that appears in that formula is investigated and good agreement is found with other recent researches on rubble-mound breakwaters. 相似文献
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Nicolas Fritier Nicolas MasseiBenoit Laignel Alain DurandBastien Dieppois Julien Deloffre 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2012,344(8):396-405
The inter-annual to multi-decadal winter variability (DJFM) of precipitation on the Seine River watershed (France) was analysed using continuous wavelet transform analysis and compared to the winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI). Nine weather stations were used over the 1951 to 2004 period and confirmed the homogeneity of inter-annual fluctuations for all stations but one. Wavelet coherence between SLP over the Icelandic and Azores regions and precipitation highlighted coherence for different scales of variability according to the centre of action considered. Segmentation and wavelet analysis and coherence between precipitation and NAOI over a long period of time (1873–2004) showed: i) increasing variability across the last century at most time scales, especially for NAOI; ii) the existence of change points for the mean and variance of both signals; iii) overall discontinuity of the coherence whatever the scale considered, especially between ∼1910 and ∼1955 for inter-decennial to pluri-decennial scales. 相似文献
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Frédéric Moynier Toshiyuki Fujii Kun Wang Julien Foriel 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2013,345(5-6):230-240
Iron is one of the most abundant transition metal in higher plants and variations in its isotopic compositions can be used to trace its utilization. In order to better understand the effect of plant-induced isotopic fractionation on the global Fe cycling, we have estimated by quantum chemical calculations the magnitude of the isotopic fractionation between different Fe species relevant to the transport and storage of Fe in higher plants: Fe(II)-citrate, Fe(III)-citrate, Fe(II)-nicotianamine, and Fe(III)-phytosiderophore. The ab initio calculations show firstly, that Fe(II)-nicotianamine is ~3‰ (56Fe/54Fe) isotopically lighter than Fe(III)-phytosiderophore; secondly, even in the absence of redox changes of Fe, change in the speciation alone can create up to ~1.5‰ isotopic fractionation. For example, Fe(III)-phytosiderophore is up to 1.5‰ heavier than Fe(III)-citrate2 and Fe(II)-nicotianamine is up to 1‰ heavier than Fe(II)-citrate. In addition, in order to better understand the Fe isotopic fractionation between different plant components, we have analyzed the iron isotopic composition of different organs (roots, seeds, germinated seeds, leaves and stems) from six species of higher plants: the dicot lentil (Lens culinaris), and the graminaceous monocots Virginia wild rye (Elymus virginicus), Johnsongrass (Sorghum halepense), Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis), river oat (Uniola latifolia), and Indian goosegrass (Eleusine indica). The calculations may explain that the roots of strategy-II plants (Fe(III)-phytosiderophore) are isotopically heavier (by about 1‰ for the δ56Fe) than the upper parts of the plants (Fe transported as Fe(III)-citrate in the xylem or Fe(II)-nicotianamine in the phloem). In addition, we suggest that the isotopic variations observed between younger and older leaves could be explained by mixing of Fe received from the xylem and the phloem. 相似文献
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The kinematic and dynamic of steep two-dimensional focusing wave trains on a shearing flow in deep water are investigated analytically and numerically. In the absence of waves, the vorticity due to the vertical gradient of the horizontal current velocity is assumed constant. A linear kinematic model based on the spatio-temporal evolution of the frequency is derived, predicting the focusing distance and time of a chirped wave packet in the presence of constant vorticity. Furthermore, a linear model, based on a Fourier integral, is used to describe the evolution of the free surface on shearing current. To compute the fully nonlinear evolution of the wave group in the presence of vorticity, a new numerical model, based on a BIEM approach, is developed. On the basis of these different approaches, the role of constant vorticity on rogue wave occurrence is analysed. Two main results are obtained: (1) the linear behaviour expected in the presence of constant vorticity is significantly different from what is commonly expected in the presence of constant current and (2) the nonlinear effects are found to be of significant influence in the case at hand. 相似文献
9.
T. Mark Harrison Julien Célérier Joerg Hermann 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2009,73(4):1039-1051
Hydrothermal treatment of closely sized muscovite aggregates in a piston-cylinder apparatus induced 40Ar∗ loss that is revealed in 40Ar/39Ar step heating spectra. Age spectra and Arrhenius data, however, differ from that expected from a single diffusion length scale. A numerical model of episodic loss assuming the presence of multiple diffusion domains yields excellent fits between synthetic and actual degassing spectra. We used this model to isolate 40Ar∗ loss from the grains that remained intact during hydrothermal treatment at 10 kbar permitting calculation of diffusion coefficients in the temperature range 730-600 °C. Diffusion data generated in this manner yield an activation energy (E) of 63 ± 7 kcal/mol and frequency factor (Do) of 2.3 cm2/s. Experiments at 20 kbar yield diffusivities lower by about an order of magnitude and correspond to an activation volume of ∼14 cm3/mol. Together, these parameters predict substantially greater retentivity of Ar in muscovite than previously assumed and correspond to a closure temperature (Tc) of 425 °C for a 100 μm radius grain cooling at 10 °C/Ma at 10 kbar (Tc = 405 °C at 5 kbar. Age and log (r/ro) spectra for the run products show strong correlations indicating that muscovites can retain Ar diffusion boundaries and mechanisms that define their natural retentivity during vacuum step heating. This may permit the application of high resolution, continuous 40Ar/39Ar thermochronology to low grade, regionally metamorphosed terranes. 相似文献
10.
Abstract The annulus model considers convection between concentric cylinders with sloping endwalls. It is used as a simplified model of convection in a rapidly rotating sphere. Large azimuthal wavenumbers are preferred in this problem, and this has been exploited to develop an asymptotic approach to nonlinear convection in the annulus. The problem is further reduced because the Taylor-Proudman constraint simplifies the dependence in the direction of the rotation vector, so that a nonlinear system dependent only on the radial variable and time results. As Rayleigh number is increased a sequence of bifurcations is found, from steady solutions to periodic solutions and 2-tori, typically ending in chaotic behaviour. Both the magnetic (MHD convection) and non-magnetic problem has been considered, and in the non-magnetic case our bifurcation sequence can be compared with those found by previous two-dimensional numerical simulations. 相似文献