井筒及围岩应力,应变观测方法研究

采用最新研制的岩体应力、应变匹配传感器对西安立井煤柱开采引起的井筒附加应力特别是对井筒穿过断层附近产生的附加应力进行了较系统的观测，并对观测结果进行了分析和总结。     

A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

北京市土壤地质环境监测工作的实践与思考

开展北京市土壤地质环境的长期监测,对于政府管理部门及时掌握土壤环境质量状况,制定相应的防治措施具有重要的意义.北京市土壤地质环境监测网建成后,连续6年的监测结果表明:全市区域土壤重金属元素环境质量整体优良,存在点状有机污染;典型工矿区、农业种植区、重要水源地等重点监测区土壤环境质量总体良好,局部存在安全风险.监测网包括区域监测和重点监测两个层次;监测范围已覆盖全市域;区域监测周期3年,重点监测周期1年;形成了以化学指标为主的监测指标体系;监测方法包括野外样品采集、样品加工处理、数据处理及图件编制、无机元素(指标)和有机物分布特征分析及对比、结果评价等.针对监测工作中存在的样品代表性问题、分析测试问题、重点工作区问题和评价标准统一问题,提出了应加强方法技术和质量监控体系研究;对重点监测区的选取和工作方法进行深入探讨;在评价规范化、技术方法创新方面进行尝试等思路.     

Multi-year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model (RegCM_NCC). Part Ⅰ: Sensitivity Study

A modified version of the NCAR/RegCM2 has been developed at the National Climate Center (NCC), China Meteorological Administration, through a series of sensitivity experiments and multi-year simulations and hindcasts, with a special emphasis on the adequate choice of physical parameterization schemes suitable for the East Asian monsoon climate. This regional climate model is nested with the NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM to make an experimental seasonal prediction for China and East Asia. The four-year (2001 to 2004) prediction results are encouraging. This paper is the first part of a two-part paper, and it mainly describes the sensitivity study of the physical process parameterization represented in the model. The systematic errors produced by the different physical parameterization schemes such as the land surface processes, convective precipitation, cloud-radiation transfer process, boundary layer process and large-scale terrain features have been identified based on multi-year and extreme flooding event simulations. A number of comparative experiments has shown that the mass flux scheme (MFS) and Betts-Miller scheme (BM) for convective precipitation, the LPMI (land surface process model I) and LPMII (land surface process model Ⅱ) for the land surface process, the CCM3 radiation transfer scheme for cloud-radiation transfer processes, the TKE (turbulent kinetic energy) scheme for the boundary layer processes and the topography treatment schemes for the Tibetan Plateau are suitable for simulations and prediction of the East Asia monsoon climate in rainy seasons. Based on the above sensitivity study, a modified version of the RegCM2 (RegCM_NCC) has been set up for climate simulations and seasonal predictions.     

乌兰布和沙漠东南缘湖泊群消涨与驱动因素

湖泊是对环境变化响应敏感的地理单元,湖泊消长与响应机制研究对维持区域生态系统稳定具有重要意义。基于1999—2018年Landsat、气象、水文和农业种植面积等多种数据,在ArcGIS平台中利用改进归一化差异水体指数(MNDWI)及目视修正方法提取了乌兰布和沙漠东南缘湖泊群空间信息,运用统计学方法对主要驱动因子与湖泊消涨的关系进行了分析。结果表明:1999—2018年乌兰布和沙漠东南缘大湖泊(面积大于100 hm²)在面积上占优势,小湖泊(面积小于100 hm²)在数量占优势。趋势分析表明大湖泊面积和数量呈显著性减少趋势(相关系数分别为R=0.624 > R_18,0.01=0.561和R=0.648 > R_18,0.01=0.561);小湖泊减少趋势不显著。在空间分布格局上,研究区中部是大湖泊稳定分布区,大湖泊数量11~23个,面积2 208~4 581 hm²。研究区湖泊消长主要受到年实际引黄水量、农田面积和地下水埋深的影响。其中,实际引黄(河)水量影响所有湖泊(P≤0.01),而农田面积和地下水埋深分别对大湖泊(P≤0.01)和小湖泊(P≤0.05)影响显著。用这3个因子分别构建的多元回归模型显示,在大、小湖泊面积和数量预测方面,精度分别达到75.7%和60.5%以上。     

赣州市土地利用动态变化及其驱动因子分析

将赣州市作为研究对象,选取2000、2004、2010、2014和2017年5期Landsat遥感影像,利用RS和GIS技术,采用人机交互解译辅助实地考察方式提取赣州市2000—2017年土地利用类型图并分析土地利用变化特征;结合2000—2017年赣州市社会经济影响指标,运用主成分分析法分析得到赣州市土地利用变化的驱...     

Impacts of SIS and CICE as Sea Ice Components in BCC_CSM on the Simulation of the Arctic Climate

Sea ice is a sensitive indicator of climate change and an important component of climate system models. The Los Alamos Sea Ice Model 5.0(CICE5.0) was introduced to the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC_CSM) as a new alternative to the Sea Ice Simulator(SIS). The principal purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of these two sea ice components on simulations of basic Arctic sea ice, atmosphere, and ocean states. Two sets of experiments were conducted with the same configurations except for the sea ice component used, i.e., SIS and CICE. The distributions of sea ice concentration and thickness reproduced by the CICE simulations in both March and September were closer to actual observations than those reproduced by SIS simulations, which presented a very thin sea ice cover in September. Changes in sea ice conditions also brought about corresponding modifications to the atmosphere and ocean circulation. CICE simulations showed higher agreement with the reference datasets than did SIS simulations for surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and sea surface temperature in most parts of the Arctic Ocean. More importantly, compared with simulations with SIS, BCC_CSM with CICE revealed stronger Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC), which is more consistent with actual observations. Thus, CICE shows better performance than SIS in BCC_ CSM. However, both components demonstrate a number of common weaknesses, such as overestimation of the sea ice cover in winter, especially in the Nordic Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk. Additional studies and improvements are necessary to develop these components further.     

‘Initial’ Soil Moisture Effects on the Climate in China——A Regional Climate Model Study

In this study,the effects of ‘initial’ soil moisture(SM) in arid and semi-arid Northwestern China on subsequent climate were investigated with a regional climate model. Besides the control simulations(denoted as CTL),a series of sensitivity experiments were conducted,including the DRY and WET experiments,in which the simulated ‘initial’ SM over the region 30 –50°N,75 –105°E was only 5% and 50%,and up to 150% and 200% of the simulated value in the CTL,respectively. The results show that SM change can modify ...     

对铀资源形势和勘察任务的分析

本文从分析铀市场价格规律入手，指出在铀市场价格连续下跌以后，于２０００年可能有回升现象；在分析全球铀的产需情况后指出，自１９９０年开始出现自然铀的需求量大于生产量的趋势；在分析国内产需发展趋势的基础上指出，不能盲目满足于现有地质储量，而应密切注视商业铀储量和发展核电对铀的需求量之间的关系。最后，在综合分析全球铀经济地质形势的基础上，认为我国应把地质工作重点转移到以寻找低成本铀资源为中心的轨道上来，