Analysis and study of the large earthquake risk in Yanqing-Huailai basin

ＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓａｎｄｓｔｕｄｙｏｆｔｈｅｌａｒｇｅｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｒｉｓｋｉｎＹａｎｑｉｎｇＨｕａｉｌａｉｂａｓｉｎＣＨＡＮＧＱＵＡＮＬＩＵ（刘昌铨）ＳＨＩＸＵＪＩＡ（嘉世旭）ＭＩＮＧＪＵＮＬＩＵ（刘明军）ＣＨＡＮＧＦＡＬＩ（李长发...     

基于Pasternak双参数地基模型的陡坡段桥梁基桩内力计算方法

为考虑土体剪切模量对陡坡段桥梁基桩内力计算的影响,首先探讨桩后土压力的分布形式,并根据陡坡段桥梁基桩的承载特性建立简化分析模型;其次,引入Pasternak双参数模型,建立可考虑土体剪切模量的地基抗力计算模型;并在此基础上分别对受荷段与嵌固段基桩微元进行受力分析,求得各段控制差分方程,从而进一步迭代求解桩身位移及内力;最后,分别用陡坡段桥梁基桩实测数据与Pasternak双参数模型算例对本文内力计算方法进行验算,结果表明:本文计算方法用于陡坡段桥梁基桩内力计算是合理的,可为同类工程提供参考。     

A comparative analysis of the NDVIg and NDVI3g in monitoring vegetation phenology changes in the Northern Hemisphere

Phenology is a sensitive and critical feature of vegetation and is a good indicator for climate change studies. The global inventory modelling and mapping studies (GIMMS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) has been the most widely used data source for monitoring of the vegetation dynamics over large geographical areas in the past two decades. With the release of the third version of the NDVI (GIMMS NDVI3g) recently, it is important to compare the NDVI3g data with those of the previous version (NDVIg) to link existing studies with future applications of the NDVI3g in monitoring vegetation phenology. In this study, the three most popular satellite start of vegetation growing season (SOS) extraction methods were used, and the differences between SOSg and SOS3g arising from the methods were explored. The amplitude and the peak values of the NDVI3g are higher than those of the NDVIg curve, which indicated that the SOS derived from the NDVIg (SOSg) was significantly later than that derived from the NDVI3g (SOS3g) based on all the methods, for the whole northern hemisphere. In addition, SOSg and SOS3g both showed an advancing trend during 1982–2006, but that trend was more significant with SOSg than with SOS3g in the results from all three methods. In summary, the difference between SOSg and SOS3g (in the multi-year mean SOS, SOS change slope and the turning point in the time series) varied among the methods and was partly related to latitude. For the multi-year mean SOS, the difference increased with latitude intervals in the low latitudes (0–30°N) and decreased in the mid- and high-latitude intervals. The GIMMS NDVI3g data-sets seemed more sensitive than the GIMMS NDVIg in detecting information about the ground, and the SOS3g data were better correlated both with the in situ observations and the SOS derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer NDVI. For the northern hemisphere, previous satellite measures (SOS derived from GIMMS NDVIg) may have overestimated the advancing trend of the SOS by an average of 0.032 d yr^–1.     

顾及空间非平稳特征的遥感干旱监测

遥感技术具备实时快速、时空连续、广覆盖尺度等独特优势,在全球气候恶化大背景下,利用遥感干旱监测方法相比于传统地面监测手段,能够提供实时、准确、稳定的旱情信息,辅助科学决策。目前常用遥感旱情监测方法大多依赖全域性数学模型建模,假定了旱情模式的空间平稳特性,因而难以准确反映旱情模式的局部差异特征。本文提出利用地理加权回归模型GWR (Geographically Weighted Regression),考虑旱情模式的空间非平稳特性,综合多种遥感地面旱情监测指数,以实现传统全域旱情监测模型的局部优化。以美国大陆为研究区,监测2002年—2011年共10年的旱情状态。研究表明,GWR模型能够提供空间变化的局部最佳估计模型参数,监测结果更加吻合标准美国旱情监测USDM (U.S Drought Monitor)验证数据,且与地面实测值的最高相关系数R达到0.8552,均方根误差RMSE达到0.972,显著优于其他遥感旱情监测模型。GWR模型具备空间非平稳探测优势,实现了旱情模式的局部精细探测,能够显著提升遥感旱情监测精度,具备较好的应用前景。     

中国南海北部珠江口-琼东南盆地钻井岩屑地球化学特征及深水区天然气聚集特征

The Qiongdongnan Basin and Zhujiang River(Pearl River) Mouth Basin, important petroliferous basins in the northern South China Sea, contain abundant oil and gas resource. In this study, on basis of discussing impact of oil-base mud on TOC content and Rock-Eval parameters of cutting shale samples, the authors did comprehensive analysis of source rock quality, thermal evolution and control effect of source rock in gas accumulation of the Qiongdongnan and the Zhujiang River Mouth Basins. The contrast analysis of TOC contents and Rock-Eval parameters before and after extraction for cutting shale samples indicates that except for a weaker impact on Rock-Eval parameter S_2, oil-base mud has certain impact on Rock-Eval S_1, Tmax and TOC contents. When concerning oil-base mud influence on source rock geochemistry parameters, the shales in the Yacheng/Enping,Lingshui/Zhuhai and Sanya/Zhuhai Formations have mainly Type Ⅱ and Ⅲ organic matter with better gas potential and oil potential. The thermal evolution analysis suggests that the depth interval of the oil window is between 3 000 m and 5 000 m. Source rocks in the deepwater area have generated abundant gas mainly due to the late stage of the oil window and the high-supper mature stage. Gas reservoir formation condition analysis made clear that the source rock is the primary factor and fault is a necessary condition for gas accumulation. Spatial coupling of source, fault and reservoir is essential for gas accumulation and the inside of hydrocarbon-generating sag is future potential gas exploration area.     

中国南方下寒武统石煤的特征,沉积,环境和成因

在早寒武世，中国南方存在着四种类型的含石煤地层一南岭型、扬子型、江南型和华南型，其中的石煤在量和质的方面均各不用问，据研究，这主要与当时的沉积背景（一个浅水台地、一个深水盆地和三个深水大陆斜坡）差异有关。作者通过对石煤的分布、厚度、物质组分、岩石类型、物理化学性质和伴生元素的讨论，认为其形成机理为：海平面上升，由上升洋流携带富养海水在沉积速率缓慢和少泥的条件下，促使菌藻类大量发育，并由此引起海底缺氧环境；菌藻类死亡后沉积在海底，经过复杂的成岩变质作用就形成了石煤。     

基于灰色系统的黄龙钙华景观演化研究

黄龙的景观是在数万年的岩溶地质作用下的产物。近年来黄龙钙华出现了干涸、变黑、沙化等现象严重地影响了景观的观赏性。水资源在黄龙钙华发展变化中起着重要的作用，笔者通过收集并分析黄龙地区的监测数据，针对监测系统不健全．时序数据缺乏的特点，选用对时序数据要求不高、预测效果较好的灰色系统模型，以岩溶水体的pH值为指标预测了钙华未来的发展情况。采用地质统计学空间分析的克里金插值法，对预测结果进行插值获得了整个景区的钙华预测结果。笔者按pH值将钙华演化情况划为强侵蚀、弱侵蚀、堆积3种类型，指出黄龙钙华景观目前正处于动态平衡与消亡重组阶段。     

Quantitative estimation of helium-3 spatial distribution in the lunar regolith layer

³He (helium-3) in the lunar regolith implanted by the solar wind is one of the most valuable resources because of its potential as a fusion fuel. The abundance of ³He in the lunar regolith is related to solar wind flux, lunar surface maturity and TiO₂ content, etc. A model of solar wind flux, which takes account of variations due to shielding of the nearside when the Moon is in the Earth's magnetotail, is used to present a global distribution of relative solar wind flux over the lunar surface. Using Clementine UV/VIS multispectral data, the global distribution of lunar surface optical maturity (OMAT) and the TiO₂ content in the lunar regolith are calculated. Based on Apollo regolith samples, a linear relation between ³He abundance and normalized solar wind flux, optical maturity, and TiO₂ content is presented. To simulate the brightness temperature of the lunar surface, which is the mission of the Chinese Chang-E project's multichannel radiometers, a global distribution of regolith layer thickness is first empirically constructed from lunar digital elevation mapping (DEM). Then an inversion approach is presented to retrieve the global regolith layer thickness. It finally yields the total amount of ³He per unit area in the lunar regolith layer, which is related to the regolith layer thickness, solar wind flux, optical maturity and TiO₂ content, etc. The global inventory of ³He is estimated as 6.50×¹⁰⁸ kg, where 3.72×¹⁰⁸ kg is for the lunar nearside and 2.78×¹⁰⁸ kg is for the lunar farside.