Are natural hazards temporally random?

The paper employs statistical hypothesis tests to explore the question of whether natural hazards (hail and tornadoes being considered here) are or are not intertemporally random. The answer to this question, at least for these two hazards, is surprising and has important policy implications: hazards appear to be more likely in year t if an event was experienced in year t?1: hence, apparent ‘Gambler's Fallacy’ behaviour on the part of farmers and others may indeed be rational. Should this result hold for a full range of climate-related hazard types. as we suspect, hundreds of millions of dollars of crop loss and other damages may be preventable (e.g., rotating to frost-resistant crops if past events suggest greater than usual likelihood of early or late frost). The degree of positive serial correlation is also seen to vary a great deal regionally, with individuals in some states being unable to benefit from knowledge of prior hazard occurrence.     

Fresnel modeling of hematite crystal surfaces and application to martian hematite spherules

The gray crystalline hematite at Meridiani Planum first discovered by the Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (MGS-TES) instrument occurs as spherules that have been interpreted as concretions. Analysis of the TES and mini-TES spectra shows that no 390 cm⁻¹ feature is present in the characteristic martian hematite spectrum. Here, we incorporate the mid-IR optical constants of hematite into a simple Fresnel reflectance model to understand the effect of emission angle and crystal morphology on the presence or absence of the 390 cm⁻¹ feature in an IR hematite spectrum. Based on the results we offer two models for the internal structure of the martian hematite spherules.     

A sonic well log of the basement complex of the Walvis Ridge

A sonic well log was obtained within the basement complex of the Walvis Ridge during Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 74. The top of the basement complex is characterized by smooth acoustic reflectors. The rocks recovered within the basement complex consist of basalts with intercalated sediments. According to the log ～-50% of the upper 75 m of basement are igneous rocks and the other 50% sedimentary. Sonobuoy results indicate that the ratio of sediments to basalt increases with depth for an additional 225 m until a typical oceanic velocity structure is observed. Paleontological results suggest that the processes forming this upper 300 m of the basement complex was accomplished within a short time interval.     

Reconstruction of ancient sea conditions with an example from the Swiss Molasse

Ancient sea conditions can be estimated from the grain size, spacing and steepness of preserved ripple-marks. The element of greatest uncertainty in such reconstructions is the relationship between near-bed orbital diameter of water particles and the ripple spacing. This relationship is simple for vortex ripples of high steepness but is problematical for the low-steepness forms known as post-vortex, rolling-grain or anorbital ripples.

The existence field for wave ripples is between the threshold velocity for sediment movement and the onset of sheet flow, most low-steepness forms occurring close to the bed planation threshold. A range of maximum period of formative waves can be obtained using combinations of orbital diameter and orbital velocity, assuming linear wave theory to be a reasonable approximation.

Probable wave heights, wave lengths and water depths can be investigated using the transformation of wave parameters in shallowing waters and the constraints on wave dimensions provided by the wave-breaking condition. Given reasonable estimates of wave height, crude estimates of wave power allow a comparison of ancient wave-influenced sequences with modern counterparts.

Wave ripple-marks preserved in the Upper Marine Molasse of western Switzerland have been investigated. Results, which are in agreement with regional geology, suggest deposition in a seaway of approximately 100 km width, where moderate period waves (T = 3–6 s) were generated. The depositional facies belts were adjusted to the prevailing waves, tides and fluvial outflows.     

A note on the effects of a thin visco-elastic mud layer on small amplitude water-wave propagation

In this note we investigated the effects of a thin visco-elastic mud layer on wave propagation. Within the framework of linear water-wave theory, analytical solutions are obtained for damping rate, dispersion relation between wave frequency and wave number, and velocity components in the water column and mud layer. The wave attenuation rate reaches a maximum value when the mud layer thickness is about the same as the mud boundary layer thickness. Heavier mud has a weaker effect on the wave damping. However, the wave attenuation rate does not always decrease as the elastic shear modulus increases. In the range of small values for elastic shear modulus, the wave attenuation can be amplified quite significantly. The current solutions are compared with experimental data with different wave conditions and mud properties. In general, good agreements are observed.     

Accumulation of organic and inorganic carbon in Pliocene–Pleistocene sediments along the SW African margin

The Ocean Drilling Program Leg 175 recovered a unique series of stratigraphically continuous sedimentary sections along the SW African margin, an area which is presently affected by active coastal upwelling. The accumulation rates of organic and inorganic carbon are a major component of this record. Four Leg 175 sites (1082, 1084, 1085, 1087) are chosen as part of a latitudinal transect from the present northern to southern boundaries of the Benguela Current upwelling system, to decipher the Pliocene–Pleistocene history of biogenic production and its relationship with global and local changes in oceanic circulation and climate. The pattern of CaCO₃ and C_org mass accumulation rates (MARs) over 0.25-Myr intervals indicates that the evolution of carbon burial is highly variable between the northern and the southern Benguela regions, as well as between sites that have similar hydrological conditions. This, as well as the presence over most locations of high-amplitude, rapid changes of carbon burial, reflect the partitioning of biogenic production and patterns of sedimentation into local compartments over the Benguela margin. The combined mapping of CaCO₃ and C_org MARs at the study locations suggests four distinct evolutionary periods, which are essentially linked with major steps in global climate change: the early Pliocene, the mid-Pliocene warm event, a late Pliocene intensification of northern hemisphere glaciation and the Pleistocene. The early Pliocene spatially heterogeneous patterns of carbon burial are thought to reflect the occurrence of mass-gravitational movements over the Benguela slope which resulted in disruption of the recorded biogenic production. This was followed (3.5–3 Ma) by an episode of peak carbonate accumulation over the whole margin and, subsequently, by the onset of Benguela provincialism into a northern and a southern sedimentary regime near 2 Ma. This mid and late Pliocene evolution is interpreted as a direct response to changes in the ventilation of bottom and intermediate waters, as well as to dynamics of the subtropical gyral circulation and associated wind stress.