Scenario prediction of changes in water balance components in the Lena Basin in the context of possible climate changes

The dynamics of meteorological elements in the Lena R. Basin is predicted for the XXI century under four IPCC global scenarios of SRES family, corresponding to specified scenarios of the economic, technological, political, and demographic development of the civilization. The obtained predictions are used to simulate variants of possible changes in water balance components in the Lena Basin up to the mid-XXI century. The calculation procedure is based on the use of land-surface model SWAP and a climate scenario generator MAGICC/SCENGEN.     

Reproduction of Pechora runoff hydrographs with the help of a model of heat and water exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere (SWAP)

The potentialities of a procedure for calculating the Pechora River runoff from the pan-Arctic river basin are studied. The procedure is based on the use of a model describing heat and water exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere and two variants of input data sets relying on global databases on meteorological characteristics and land surface parameters and data of standard measurements of meteorological characteristics in combination with parameters of the land surface of the basin, taken from global databases. In both cases, use was made of the method for optimizing part of the most important model parameters, including both land surface parameters and correction factors for some meteorological elements.     

Modeling river runoff in Northwestern Russia with the use of land surface model SWAP and global databases

Data on the rivers of Onega, Ponoi, and Tuloma have been used to study whether the land surface model SWAP can serve as a tool to reproduce many-year series of daily runoff hydrographs of rivers in Northern Russia. The input data for the model have been derived from observational data from weather stations and global databases. It has been considered whether the model parameters obtained for one river can be used for calculations for other rivers where no data on appropriate parameters are available.     

The simulation of runoff from small catchments in the permafrost zone by the SWAP model

The ability of a new version of SWAP physically based model, which describes the heat and water exchange processes in the soil-vegetation (snow cover)-near-surface atmosphere system and has been adapted to the permafrost conditions, to reproduce runoff formation at small watersheds in the permafrost zone. The procedure for the preparation of missing input data for model simulations is described. Model simulations were performed based on observational data collected within a decade (1969–1978) by the Kolyma Water Balance Station, located in a high-land continuous permafrost zone. The results of comparison of the modelled daily and annual runoff with data of appropriate measurements in a number of experimental watersheds in the basin of the Kontaktovyi Creek (Upper Kolyma) are analyzed.     

Physically based modeling of many-year dynamics of daily streamflow and snow water equivalent in the Lena R. basin

The applicability of a procedure, developed previously for evaluating runoff hydrographs of northern rivers, to the largest Russian river—the Lena—which flows under severe conditions of the Northeastern Siberia, is examined. The procedure is based on the land surface model SWAP in combination with input data derived from global databases of land surface parameters and meteorological forcing data derived from observations at meteorological stations located in the basins of the rivers or near them. Also studied was the ability of the model SWAP to reproduce the many-year dynamics of the values of snow water equivalent averaged over the Lena basin and their distribution over the basin area.     

Physically Based Modeling of the Long-Term Dynamics of Water Balance and Snow Water Storage Components in the Ob–Irtysh River Basin

Water Resources - The applicability of the previously developed technique for simulating the runoff hydrographs of northern rivers to the Ob River, which has largest basin area among Russian rivers...     

Northern Dvina runoff simulation using land-surface model SWAP and global databases

The potentialities of a method for evaluating runoff from Northern Dvina basin, which is based on a model of heat and water exchange between land surface and the atmosphere (SWAP) in combination with input data based on global databases on land surface parameters and different variants of meteorological data (derived from reanalysis data; reanalysis data hybridized with ground based and satellite observations; observational data of meteorological stations situated in the river basin). In all three cases, an optimization was applied to some key model parameters, including the characteristics of the land surface and correction factors for precipitation and incoming radiation.     

Water Safety of the Steppe Crimea and the Possible Ways to Its Improvement

Water Resources - The level of water safety of the Steppe Crimea has been analyzed. The water safety has been shown to be mostly determined by the water availability in the fields of agricultural...     

Modeling streamflow of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers using land surface model SWAP

The potentialities of a technique for simulating the runoff from the Olenek and Indigirka river basins located in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) under the most severe climate conditions are investigated. The technique is based on a land surface model SWAP in combination with input data based on global data sets on land surface parameters and meteorological forcing data derived from observations from meteorological stations situated within or near the river basins. To improve the calculation quality, an optimization procedure was applied to the key model parameters, including both land surface characteristics and (for the Olenek R.) the correction factors for precipitation and incoming radiation.     

Scenario Forecasting of Changes in Water Balance Components in the Ob–Irtysh Basin in the Context of Possible Climate Change

Water Resources - Four global climate scenarios of the family “Special Report on Emissions Scenarios” of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which correspond to the specified...