The ACPI Climate Change Simulations

The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) has been used in the Accelerated ClimatePrediction Initiative (ACPI) Program to simulate the global climateresponse to projected CO₂, sulfate, and other greenhouse gasforcingunder a business-as-usual emissions scenario during the 21st century. In these runs, the oceans were initialized to 1995 conditions by a group from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and other institutions. An ensemble of three model runs was then carried out to the year 2099 using the projected forcing. Atmospheric data fromthese runs were saved at 6-hourly intervals (hourly for certain criticalfields) to support the ACPI objective of accurately modeling hydrologicalcycles over the western U.S. It is shown that the initialization to1995 conditions partly removes the un-forced oceanic temperature and salinity drifts that occurred in the standard 20th century integration. The ACPI runs show a global surface temperature increase of 3–8 °C over northern high-latitudes by the end of the 21st century, and 1–2 °C over the oceans. This is generally within ±0.1°Cof model runs without the 1995 ocean initialization. The exception is in theAntarctic circumpolar ocean where surface air temperature is cooler in theACPI run; however the ensemble scatter is large in this region. Althoughthe difference in climate at the end of the 21st century is minimalbetween the ACPI runs and traditionally spun up runs, it might be largerfor CGCMs with higher climate sensitivity or larger ocean drifts. Ourresults suggest that the effect of small errors in the oceans (such asthose associated with climate drifts) on CGCM-simulated climate changesfor the next 50–100 years may be negligible.     

The Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources in the West: Introduction and Overview

The results of an experimental `end to end' assessment of the effects of climate change on water resources in the western United States are described. The assessment focuses on the potential effects of climate change over the first half of the 21st century on the Columbia, Sacramento/San Joaquin, and Colorado river basins. The paper describes the methodology used for the assessment, and it summarizes the principal findings of the study. The strengths and weaknesses of this study are discussed, and suggestions are made for improving future climate change assessments.     

Analysis of anomalies in ADS-B and its GPS data

Traditionally, the surveillance component of the air traffic management system has been based on radar, which consists of two separate systems: primary radar and secondary radar, which both enable the measurement of the aircraft range and bearing to the radar station. Primary radar is based on signals emitted by a ground station simply being reflected off an object and detected by a ground-based receiver. Secondary radar also emits signals, but relies upon a transponder onboard the aircraft to emit a signal itself, modulated among others by a four-digit aircraft identity (Mode A), aircraft altitude (Mode C) and/or 24-bit unique address (Mode S). Typical accuracies of secondary radar are of the order of 0.03 NM in range and 0.07° in azimuth. However, no position integrity report is provided. Air traffic density is expected to significantly increase in the future. In order to maintain or enhance air travel efficiency, while maintaining safety, more accurate surveillance systems, with the required integrity, will be required. Automatic dependent surveillance–broadcast (ADS-B) is a new aviation surveillance system, envisioned to overcome the limitations of radar and to enhance surveillance performance and thereby increase airspace capacity. However, its high dependence on external systems such as onboard navigation and communication systems also increases the number of potential points of failure. It is important to understand and mitigate these failure modes before the system can reliably be implemented. The present study emerged as an exploratory research as part of a safety assessment framework development for the ADS-B system. It reviews the ADS-B failure modes, data collection and analysis of ADS-B and its corresponding onboard GPS data. The study identifies a set of failures common to certain aircraft models, with consistent error patterns. A key failure mode was found to be associated with the navigation data from the onboard GPS. We discuss the identified failure modes and investigate the nature and causes of these failures. The findings highlight some of the deficiencies of the current ADS-B system, which will need to be addressed before the ADS-B system can reliably be implemented.     

Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatichazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communicationchannels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information.     

MARS:A TUTORIAL

This tutorial paper presents a simplified view of one of the more recently published multivariatecalibration methods particularly suited to dealing with non-linear data sets.The method is referred toas MARS and stands for multivariate adaptive regression splines.Simple examples are provided toexplain the workings of the method.     

African Easterly Jet South: control,maintenance mechanisms and link with Southern subtropical waves

The African Easterly Jet South (AEJ-S) is an important feature of the central African mid tropospheric circulation and has been identified as a key contributor to convection over the region. This study uses 21-year (1983–2003) Reanalysis data sets of ERA-Interim, NCEP2 and MERRA2 to establish mechanisms related to AEJ-S dynamics. Results demonstrate that AEJ-S is dominated by rotational circulation and is maintained by a mid-level high that forms over the Kalahari region during September to November. Because of the role played by this high pressure system in the AEJ-S dynamics, an effort is made to understand how this anticyclone develops. We show that this mid-tropospheric high over the Kalahari region is established in response to lower tropospheric dry convection over the region from September to November. At the core of this high, anticyclonic circulation is induced and maintains AEJ-S located at the northern flank of the high. A link between AEJ-S dynamics and southern subtropical westerly waves is also revealed. It is shown that, when waves amplify over the southern subtropics, they modify lower tropospheric heating. Depending on the phase of the wave, this modifies the cross latitude temperature gradient throughout equatorial regions, therefore modulating the intensity of the jet. By clarifying the mechanisms that govern the AEJ-S, this research work contributes to insight into central Africa climate mechanisms and also suggests a link between central Africa and Southern Africa climate systems. This research work also improves the foundation of new mechanisms that help to identify suitable metrics for the evaluation of Global models over the Central Africa region.     

Performance of rate detector algorithms for an integrated GPS/INS system in the presence of slowly growing error

In the Global Positioning System, there is no provision for real-time integrity information within the Standard Positioning Service, by design. However, in safety critical sectors like aviation, stringent integrity performance requirements must be met. This can be achieved using the special augmentation systems or RAIM (Receiver Autonomous Integrity Monitoring) or both. RAIM, the most cost-effective method relies on data consistency, and therefore requires redundant measurements for its operation. An external aid to provide this redundancy can be in the form of an Inertial Navigation system. This should enable continued performance even when no redundant satellite measurements are available. An algorithm presented in previous papers by the authors detects the rate of slowly growing errors. The algorithm was shown to be effective for early detection of slowly growing errors that belong to the class of most difficult to detect errors. Firstly, rate detector is tested for varying faults. Secondly, real data are used to validate the rate detector algorithm. The data are extensively analyzed to ascertain whether it is suitable for integrity and fault diagnostics. A modification to the original rate detector algorithm is suggested by addition of a bias state to the dynamic model. The performance is then compared with the existing techniques and substantial improvement is shown.     

中缅毗邻区金腊Pb-Zn-Ag多金属矿田花岗岩锆石U-Pb定年与地球化学特征

位于中缅毗邻区的金腊铅锌银多金属矿田大地构造上处于保山—掸泰地块东缘,勐统—耿马—西盟元古宙—古生代被动大陆边缘活动带南段。与矿化有关的花岗岩(简称金腊花岗岩)包括老厂似斑状角闪二长花岗岩、勐林山似斑状黑云二长花岗岩和南腊碱长花岗斑岩。文中系统研究了上述岩石的主量元素、稀土元素、微量元素、成矿元素和锆石U-Pb同位素年龄等特征,从构造岩浆演化的角度,探讨上述岩体之间内在联系、成因演化以及与成矿的关系:(1)在金腊花岗岩三种岩石类型中,老厂似斑状角闪二长花岗岩和勐林山似斑状黑云二长花岗岩的锆石同位素U-Pb年龄皆为(45±1)Ma,形成于岩浆结晶分异早期阶段的深成环境,而南腊碱长花岗斑岩的锆石同位素U-Pb年龄为(43.41±0.78)Ma,形成于岩浆结晶分异晚期阶段的浅成环境。(2)主量元素和微量元素(稀土元素和某些微量元素(Zr/Hf、Nb/Ta、Rb/Sr、Rb/Ba、K/Rb、(Rb/Yb)N、Sr*、K*和Zr*)),结合U-Pb同位素定年研究表明,本区花岗岩形成于喜马拉雅同碰撞造山成矿作用末期局部拉张构造环境,并分别代表了构造岩浆演化过程中不同演化阶段岩浆分异结晶的产物。(3)上述三类花岗岩样品皆位于S型花岗岩区,但从老厂似斑状角闪二长花岗岩,勐林山似斑状黑云二长花岗岩,到南腊碱长花岗斑岩,样品分布逐渐远离"I"型花岗岩和"S"型花岗岩的分界线,这表明自老厂似斑状角闪二长花岗岩至勐林山似斑状黑云二长花岗岩,到南腊碱长花岗斑岩幔源组分逐渐减少。(4)相对中国花岗岩,南腊碱长花岗斑岩不仅更富集W、Cu、Bi、Sb、Mo、Sn、Ag、Pb和Au等成矿元素,而且还强烈富集F、B和As等矿化剂元素,因此,碱长花岗斑岩是最有成矿远景的岩体。