台风"碧利斯"特点及动力成因分析

利用常规观测资料、T213资料、FY-2C卫星资料和多普勒雷达资料等,对0604号台风“碧利斯“进行了综合研究,并与历史上相似路径的台风进行了对比分析.分析结果表明,“碧利斯“造成的暴雨出现在江西中南部,与历史上进入赣南的热带气旋一般特点相一致;“碧利斯“路径与副高的位置和演变有关;“碧利斯“造成的江西暴雨落区,与辐合上升运动中心及高层辐散中心对应较好,并与台风不对称环流、地形、不稳定能量等因素有关;暴雨与湿位涡呈反位相相关,且在暴雨较强时相关性更好.     

NONLINEAR SCHRODINGER EQUATION IN THE ROTATIONAL BAROTROPIC ATMOSPHERE AND ATMOSPHERIC BLOCKING

In this paper,the WKB method is used to obtain the nonlinear Schr(?)dinger equation satisfied by nonlinearRossby wave in the rotational barotropic atmosphere.It is found that the nonlinear Schr(?)dinger equation hasan envelope solitary wave solution under the condition 1≤m≤2(m the zonal wavenumber),and the phasespeed of envelope solitary Rossby wave in the atmosphere is related to the square of its amplitude linearly,thatis,the larger the amplitude of envelope solitary Rossby wave,the smaller its propagation speed.Farthermore,the blocking high and cut-off low pressures which are consistent with the observations of blocking in the atmo-sphere are obtained by calculating envelope solitary Rossby wave,and the blocking structures persist more thanfive days,the results demonstrate that the envelope solitary Rossby wave is a possible mechanism about theformation,maintenance and breakout of blocking in the atmosphere.     

论Logistic判别分析中极大似然估计的存在性

研究Logistic判别分析中的极大似然估计的存在性与唯一性问题,是一个在实际中碰到的难题。本文给出了分离及有重叠数据情况下的结论证明。     

EFFECT OF THE NONLINEAR TERM ON MOVEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE

The dynamics of tropical cyclone is investigated in a nondivergent barotropic model with nobasic flow. The effect of nonlinear term on the movement and development of tropical cyclone isemphatically demonstrated. The advection of asymmetric vorticity by the symmetric flow (AAVS)produces the small-scale gyres (SSGs). The SSGs counterclockwise rotate around the tropicalcyclone center. The interaction of SSGs with the large-scale beta gyres (LSBGs) leads to theoscillation in translation speed and vacillation in translation direction for tropical cyclone. Theadvection of symmetric vorticity by the asymmetric flow (ASVA) steers the symmetric circulationof tropical cyclone. The ventilation flow vector determined by the asymmetric flow is closecorrelated with the motion vector of tropical cyclone. The nonlinear advection of relative vorticityis an order of magnitude greater than the linear advection of planetary vorticity, However, theasymmetric circulation created by the planetary vorticity advection provides a background conditionfor anomalous motions of the tropical cyclone. The combination of the linear and nonlinear effectsresults in accelerated, decelerated, changing direction and/or counterclockwise looping motions ofthe tropical cyclone.     

SEASONAL VARIATIONS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITIES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND ITS NEIGHBORHOOD AND THEIR COMPARATIVE ANALYSES IN THE STRONG AND WEAK CONVECTION YEARS

The seasonal variations of convective activities over the South China Sea(SCS)and itsneighborhood.as well as the similarities and differences of convection in the different key regionsduring the strong and weak convection years are analyzed by using the pentad data of TBB from1980 to 1993.The results show that in winter and summer the seasonal variations of the convectiveactivities are synchronous over the SCS and its neighborhood,the anomalous convection amplitudesare obviously different in different regions.The significant extents of convective activities havesomewhat seasonal differences in the strong and weak convection years.In the strong convectionyears,it is in winter,spring and autumn that the convection anomaly is more evident than that inthe normal years,however,after the summer monsoon onset the convection is sustained.stableand similar to that in the normal years.In the weak convection years.the convection weakensgreatly in each season.but the primary weakening occurs in spring.summer and autumn.Nomatter in the strong or the weak convection years.the convective activities are somewhat ofdifference in the Bay of Bengal.the Indochina Peninsula.the SCS and the Philippines.In addition.the convective activities are also different over the south and the north parts of the SCS.theconvection variation in the strong year is similar to that in the weak year over the north part of theSCS.but over the south part there are great differences.     

热带气旋"黄蜂"动热力特征演变的模拟分析

以"中国登陆台风试验"项目的目标热带气旋"黄蜂"为对象,用高分辨数值模式成功模拟了其近海加强和登陆减弱的过程,从定量和时间演化角度细致分析了热带气旋(TC)各阶段的动、热力特征,包括对流加热特性、温湿结构、稳定度、涡散度、垂直运动、垂直环流、水平环流等基本动、热力因子的时空结构特征,揭示了该热带气旋的大量结构特点,如对流加热的强盛和非对称性、强热带风暴的无眼结构、低层的东暖西冷结构、涡度的准圆形对称结构、东/西侧环流正/斜压性的差异、低层辐合和上升运动的准周期振荡等等.这些结构特征的揭示对深入细致地研究和认识南海热带气旋的特点和演变机理具有重要学术意义.     

MULTI-SCALE ANALYSES OF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS FOR THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND CHINA DURING THE LAST ONE HUNDRED YEARS

Using multi-resolution theory of wavelet analysis,this paper studies the multi-scale structureof surface air temperature variations for the Northern Hemisphere and China during the last onehundred years.The results show that the climatic variations for the Northern Hemisphere can bedescribed as 3 hierarchies corresponding to the larger-scale changes.They are the cold period be-fore 1919,the warm period from 1920 to 1978 and the warmer period after 1979.The larger-scalehierarchical changes obviously show qualities of climate jump.The years 1920 and 1979 are thejump points of climate change.The surface air temperature variations for China are not entirelyanalogous to the Northern Hemisphere,and the main contrasts are that China is in the cold periodafter 1955 and the jump point of warming is 1987.The surface air temperature variations for theNorthern Hemisphere and China during the last one hundred years obviously show the hierarchicalstructure of multi-scale changes and the qualities of climate jump.     

TRAJECTORY ANALYSES OF THE DUSTSTORMS OVER EAST ASIA

The transports of dust are calculated using 3-dimensional(3-D)trajectory method for three cases of duststorms inthe terrain-following coordinate system,and the synoptic processes are also discussed for each case.The case of 17—20April 1980,a severe duststorm was associated with the rapid development of a cyclone over the Mongolia Plateau.Thedust moved from west to east across several deserts,formed a typical dust path in spring.The other two were weaker andthe dust was triggered by the strong wind behind the cold front from northwest or north.Because the vertical velocity isconsidered in 3-D trajectory analysis,trajectories calculated should better reveal the transport rule of the dust particlesand the results seem to be more consistent with the synoptic processes.The trajectory analysis on the 2-D isobaric sur-faces is simpler but can be used only in the conditions with weak vertical wind shear and weak vertical velocity.The dif-ference of trajectories at lower levels between two methods may be caused by the different treatment of orography.     

山区平均气温细网格插值方法的比较

采用逐步插值和多元回归的方法，计算了贵州省１月、７月份气温１０＇×１０＇细网格的内插值。通过两种结果与实际状况的比较，及其误差的分析，发现逐步插值的计算结果更符合实际，且剩余误差为多元回归结果的１／５￣１／１０。     

两类E1 Nino事件太平洋海温异常时空结构的分析

用聚类法对１９５１─１９８６年发生的１０次厄尔尼诺事件进行分析，归纳出两类厄尔尼诺事件。第Ⅰ类在赤道中太平洋偏西先开始增温，第Ⅱ类在赤道东太平洋先开始增温；用距平合成和复自然正交经验展开研究了两类事件从产生到消亡各阶段所对应的太平洋海温异常的时空结构和特征。爆发和发展阶段，第Ⅰ类海温场扰动由西向东传，第Ⅱ类相反。距平分布也呈明显相反的特征。成熟阶段，赤道地区第Ⅰ类逆转为由东向西传播；第Ⅱ类则出现经向北传、纬向准静止；中高纬地区两类仍相反，而距平分布的相反特征则已经消失。消亡阶段，海温场的扰动传播第Ⅱ类与成熟阶段变化不大，而第Ⅰ类就变成与第Ⅱ类一致；距平分布也差别不大。     

近中性条件下青藏高原行星边界层厚度及其特征分析

本文利用1979年5—8月常规气象资料,采用三种不同定义的确定边界层厚度的方法,得到近中性弱稳定条件下夏季青藏高原平均边界层厚度为600m左右。     

近48年抚州地区气候干湿状况分析

利用抚州市11个气象观测站的气温、降水量与蒸发量资料,计算分析气候干早指数时空变化特征,同时分析降水、降水距平、蒸降差等特征变化,以揭示1962-2009年抚州地区气候干湿变化状况.结果表明,抚州市各地的干湿变化基本一致,干早指数的变化是波动的且呈下降趋势.20世纪60年代、80年代中后期至90年代中期,是抚州市干早出...     

气候系统的非线性特征及其预测理论

本文针对气候问题的特殊性,对气候的定义、气候系统的非线性特征、演变机制、可预报性问题以及气候状态的预报方法等做了较全面的研究,这些内容初步形成了气候系统的准动力—准随机理论,是气候动力学的新发展。     

THE LYAPUNOV STABILITY OF NONLINEAR WAVE MOTION IN THE BAROTROPIC NONDIVERGENT ATMOSPHERE

Introducing the concept of pseudo-momentum, a generalized Arnold-Dikii functional is established, and then thesufficient condition for stability of nonlinear wave motion in the barotropic nondivergent atmosphere is derived by useof variational principle. It is found that the stability of nonlinear wave motion depends not only on its streamfield distri-bution, but also on its phase speed for the propagating nonlinear wave motion. Moreover, the stability criterion of trav-elling modon is also obtained, and it is shown that the travelling modon is stable if the scale of disturbance superimposedon the travelling modon remains to be less than that of the travelling modon.     

OBSERVATION AND MODEL ANALYSES OF POSITIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS

The analyses of spatial and temporal characteristics of positive cloud-to-ground(CG)lightning for four mesoscaleconvective systems and two severe local convective systems in 1989 and 1990 show that positive CG flash rate usuallyhas two peak values.The major peak occurs during the developing stage of the storm and most of the positive CGflashes originate at the lower part of the storm.The minor occurs during the dissipative stage of the storm and most ofthe positive CG flashes originate at the upper part of the storm,especially in the region of the wind divergence in thestorm anvil.The positive CG flash rate is almost an order of magnitude larger in the developing stage than in thedissipative stage.The appearing time of the peak of negative CG flash rate is in accordance with that of the valley of pos-itive CG flash rate.The higher the intensity of the radar echo,the higher the positive CG flash rate.Most of the positive CG flashes oc-cur when the weak echo area is larger,and mostly originate in the region where the radar echo intensity is about 10dBzand in the back region of the moving storms.The spatial distribution of the positive CG flashes is much more dispersivethan that of the negative.The mesoscale analysis reveals a bipolar lightning pattern.The mean bipole--length reaches itsminimum during the mature stage of the storm and reaches the maximum during the developing stage of the storm.The vertical distribution of the charge density is calculated by a one-dimensional charging model.Then,we discussthe producing condition of the positive CG lightning and forming cause of charge structure mentioned above.