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本文以鄱阳湖湖泊流域系统为研究对象,鉴于该湖泊流域系统尺度较大,下垫面自然属性呈现高度空间异质性且具有流域-平原区-湖泊不同机制的水文水动力过程,为了真实描述湖泊流域间的水文水动力联系及反映不同过程间的作用机制,构建了鄱阳湖湖泊流域联合模拟模型.该模型基于自主研发的流域分布式水文模型WATLAC和湖滨平原区产流模型以及水动力模型MIKE 21 3个不同功能子模型的连接来实现该复杂系统的模拟.模型的联合采用输入-输出驱动及子模型的顺序执行进程,即将五大子流域与平原区入湖径流量作为输入条件来驱动湖泊水动力模型,模拟湖泊水位对流域入湖径流量的响应.以2000-2005年鄱阳湖流域6个水文站点的河道径流量、流域基流指数以及湖泊4个站点的水位资料来率定模型,其中各站点日径流量拟合的纳希效率系数Ens为0.71~0.84,确定性系数R2介于0.70~0.88之间,而湖泊各站点水位拟合的纳希效率系数Ens变化为0.88~0.98,确定性系数R2为0.96~0.98,均取得令人满意的率定结果.本文提出的鄱阳湖湖泊流域系统水文水动力联合模拟模型能较为理想再现湖泊水位对流域降雨-径流过程的响应.水位模拟结果进一步表明,该联合模型能用来获取重要的水动力空间变化特征.该模型可作为有效工具定量揭示湖泊流域系统水文水动力过程对气候变化和流域人类活动的响应. 相似文献
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气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域径流过程影响的定量分析 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:3
量化气候变化和人类活动对流域水文影响及其对流域水资源规划和管理具有重要的理论与现实意义.采用水文模型和多元回归法定量分析气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖"五河"径流的影响,并通过与灵敏度分析法对比来进一步验证分析结果 .研究表明,1970-2009年,气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域径流增加的贡献率分别为73%和27%.气候变化是饶河、信江和赣江径流增加的主导因素,而人类活动是修水径流增加的主要因素,是抚河径流减少的主要原因.另外,不同季节影响径流变化的主导因素又有不同,人类活动为干季(11月到次年2月)径流增加和湿季(4-6月)径流减小的主导因素,其贡献率分别为78.9%和82.7%.本研究可为鄱阳湖流域防洪抗旱及水资源优化配置提供重要科学依据. 相似文献
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本文以鄱阳湖流域为例,所描述的流域可持续发展框架是一个基于流域系统理论和实践的生态系统模型.包括了三个主要的部分:(1)环境政策与规划;(2)地球空间信息系统;(3)社区发展与区域网络.框架将多个学科,如:流域生态学,环境规划,可持续发展与资源管理汇集一起,形成了一套综合的流域制图、模拟和监测的流域管理方法. 相似文献
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为研究过去千年尺度径流变化及其对气候变化的响应,以长江中游鄱阳湖流域为研究区,运用气候模式CCSM4和ECHAM5模拟过去1000 a气候数据,空间降尺度后驱动水文模型模拟了鄱阳湖流域过去近千年流域径流序列.利用快速傅里叶变换、小波分析等手段,分析流域极端径流变化特征、周期和该流域旱涝事件发生频率.结果表明:2种气候模式均能反映出中世纪暖期及小冰期阶段的干湿交替变化,且小冰期内中干旱状态维持时间较长;径流的丰枯变化与降水量变化具有较好的对应关系.CCSM4和ECHAM5模式下发生旱涝灾害与极大极小降水事件发生频率基本相同,径流丰枯变化与降水变化周期相近,均具有30 a左右的主周期,10~15、7 a左右的子周期.小波系数模平方图中30 a左右显著的能量信号揭示了该周期与北太平洋气候的主要环流机制的太平洋年代际振荡周期相近,因此,大气环流涛动是造成气候-水文变化的主要原因.研究结果拓展了基于近代60 a观测记录的流域水文变化的认识,探讨了千年时间长度下流域干湿变化特征和水文对气候响应的动力机制,有助于全面系统认识长江中游在全球气候暖化背景下旱涝极端水文事件的发生机制与变化规律. 相似文献
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气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域赣江径流影响的定量分析 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:3
气候变化和人类活动对流域径流影响的定量研究是当前研究的热点,赣江作为鄱阳湖流域最大的子流域,径流变化对鄱阳湖湿地水生态系统具有重要的影响.利用Mann-Kendall突变检验分析了赣江流域径流1955—2010年间演变趋势,再分别应用统计方法和IHACRES集总式模型分析气候要素和人类活动对径流的影响.研究表明IHACRES能够较好地模拟赣江流域径流,适用于中亚热带湿润季风气候区.Mann-Kendall突变检验表明赣江流域径流在1979年发生突变,可划分为1955—1979年和1980—2010年两个时段.降水是影响赣江流域径流年际变化的主要因素,而土地利用等人类活动的影响并不明显.水库建设显著影响赣江径流的季节分配,1980—2010年间人类活动影响更加显著,其中45%的年份秋季径流增加50%以上,26%的年份秋季径流增加超过100%,其中1989年的秋季径流增加幅度达到320%. 相似文献
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1960-2012年鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件时空演变特征 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
基于鄱阳湖流域五河7个主要入湖控制站1960-2012年的实测径流资料,通过短周期旱涝急转指数,结合TFPWMK趋势检验法及集合经验模态分解法,分析了鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件的时空分布、演变趋势、强度及周期变化等,并探讨了旱涝急转指数的不确定性及旱涝急转事件的成因.结果表明:鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件主要分布在3-10月,其中3-6月主要表现为"旱转涝",7-10月主要表现为"涝转旱",且不同年代间存在一定的时空差异;五河以轻度旱涝急转事件为主,重度旱涝急转事件发生频率较低,主要发生在抚河、信江和饶河流域,且多以"涝转旱"事件为主;在年代际上,鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件在1990s发生的频率最高,在2000s最低.同时,除饶河外,鄱阳湖流域年最强"涝转旱"事件的发生强度呈减弱趋势,而年最强"旱转涝"事件的发生强度在赣江和修水北支有减弱趋势,在饶河和修水南支有增强趋势.五河旱涝急转的变化存在2个特征时间尺度,分别为1a和21~35a,而年最强旱涝急转事件的发生强度具有3a左右的周期变化特征.这些变化与流域降水的不均匀性及强烈的人类活动等有关.本研究结果有助于全面系统认识鄱阳湖流域在全球变暖背景下极... 相似文献
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基于气象和水文干旱的二维变量干旱状态基础上,通过一阶马尔科夫链模型对二维变量干旱状态进行频率、重现期和历时分析,建立水文气象干旱指数,从干旱灾害形成、演变和持续3方面对干旱灾害进行研究,同时预测未来6个月非水文干旱到水文干旱的概率.结果表明:(1)修河流域在干旱形成中危害大,抚河流域和修河流域在干旱演变中危害大,赣江流域和饶河流域在干旱持续中危害大;(2)鄱阳湖流域状态4(气象、水文干旱)发生的频率最高,为0.30,连续湿润或者干旱的概率最大,湿润状态(状态2)与水文干旱(状态4、状态5(气象湿润、水文干旱))的相互转移概率最低;(3)在长期干旱预测中,鄱阳湖流域从状态2转到状态4和状态5的平均概率为0.11,属最低,而状态1(气象、水文无旱)和状态3(气象干旱、水文湿润)到达状态4的概率为0.23,发生概率最大.修河流域在非水文干旱状态下未来发生气象、水文干旱状态的平均概率为0.28,是"五河"中最高的,而赣江流域在正常或者湿润状态下未来发生气象、水文干旱的概率最低,为0.18,该研究对于鄱阳湖流域水文气象干旱的抗旱减灾具有重要理论与现实意义. 相似文献
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气候变化对沅江流域径流影响研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
温室气体排放量增加造成气候变化,对全球资源环境产生重要影响.本文在水量平衡基础上,建立考虑气象要素和地形变化的月水文模型,利用实测径流资料对模型在时空尺度上进行验证.利用全球气候模型(GCMs)预测的未来气候变化情形,对处于湿润区的沅江流域径流过程进行预测.分析结果表明,该区域径流过程对降雨和气温变化十分敏感.根据英国Hadcm2模型对本世纪中叶气候变化预测结果,沅江流域未来年降雨量减少0.43%气温升高1.55℃,丰水期降雨增加,而枯水期将有较大幅度减少.年径流量相应减少6.8%,丰水期径流量增大11%,枯水期径流减少47%,不利于防洪和水资源开发利用. 相似文献
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The main purpose of this work concerns the development and testing of an overland flow model based on the two‐dimensional fully dynamic shallow water equations. Three key aspects, fundamental to get accurate, efficient and robust computation of surface runoff at basin scale, are discussed by transferring the main findings obtained by the recent research on the topic of dam‐break wave and flood propagation in the context of rainfall–runoff modelling. In particular, attention is focused on the numerical flux and bottom slope source terms computation, on a numerical treatment of friction slope terms and on an algorithm for dealing with wetting/drying fronts. The performances of the numerical model have been preliminarily evaluated using experimental or ideal tests characterized by very critical conditions for the stability of a numerical model. Then, attention was focused on a real event occurred in a sub‐basin of Reno river in Italy to analyse the suitability of the model in simulating real flood situations. The numerical results highlight the good performances of the model in all the simulations discussed in the paper. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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日本琵琶湖流域大气边界层的三维数值模拟 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文在地形坐标下引入一种水平导数差分近似方法,建立一个适合日本琵琶湖复杂地形、满足静力平衡条件的三维非定常大气边界层数值模式。在弱的背景风场下,模式加入了琵琶湖流域的实际地形,计算结果表明:模式运行十分稳定,且占机内存小,节省计算时间,同时模式还做了流域地形、湖泊本身存在与否等因子对边界层风场影响的数值试验。在强的背景风场下,模式加入了经过适当平滑的琵琶湖流域地形,得出了一些有益的看法。 相似文献
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A numerical finite element based implicit recurrence relationship is developed for the analysis of watershed direct runoff problems. The algorithm is presented in a two dimensional form for the full momentum and continuity equations and unidimensionally for the kinematic wave theory. Since the whole domain is represented and solved as a single set of matrix equations, the advent of shocks for domains where appreciable changes in slope and/or resistance to flow occur, is immediately distinguishable. 相似文献
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Gary J. Sheridan Philip J. Noske Patrick N.J. Lane Owen D. Jones Christopher B. Sherwin 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(8):1049-1061
The objective of this research was to develop and parameterise a physically justified yet low‐parameter model to quantify observed changes in surface runoff ratios with hillslope length. The approach starts with the assumption that a unit of rainfall‐excess runoff generated at a point is a fraction β of precipitation P (m) which travels some variable distance down a slope before reinfiltrating, depending on the local rainfall, climate, soils, etc. If this random distance travelled Y is represented by a distribution, then a survival function will describe the probability of this unit of runoff travelling further than some distance x (m). The total amount of per unit width runoff Q (m2) flowing across the lower boundary of a slope of length λ (m) may be considered the sum of all the proportions of the units of rainfall excess runoff integrated from the lower boundary x = 0 to the upper boundary x = λ of the slope. Using these assumptions we derive a model Q(λ) = βPμλ/(μ + λ), (μ > 0, 0 ≤ β ≤ 1, λ ≥ 0) that describes the change in surface runoff with slope length, where μ (m) is the mean of the random variable Y. Dividing both sides of this equation by Pλ yields a simple two‐parameter equation for the dimensionless hillslope runoff ratio Qh(λ) = βμ/(μ + λ). The model was parameterised with new rainfall and runoff data collected from three replicates of bounded 2 m wide plots of four different lengths (0.5, 1.0, 2.0 and 4.0 m) for 2 years from a forested SE Australian site, and with 32 slope length–runoff data sets from 12 other published studies undertaken between 1934 and 2010. Using the parameterised model resulted in a Nash and Sutcliffe statistic between observed and predicted runoff ratio (for all data sets combined) of 0.93, compared with –2.1 when the runoff ratio was fixed at the value measured from the shortest plot. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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The problem of obtaining field‐scale surface response to rainfall events is complicated by the spatial variability of infiltration characteristics of the soil and rainfall. In this paper, we develop and test a simplified model for generating surface runoff over fields with spatial variation in both rainfall rate and saturated hydraulic conductivities. The model is able to represent the effects of local variation in infiltration, as well as the run‐on effect that controls infiltration of excess water from saturated upstream areas. The effective rainfall excess is routed to the slope outlet using a simplified solution of the kinematic wave approximation. Model results are compared to averaged hydrographs from numerically‐intensive Monte–Carlo simulations for observed and design rainfall events and soil patterns that are typical of Central Italy. The simplified model is found to yield satisfactory results at a relatively small computational expense. A proposal to include a simple channel routing scheme is also presented as a prelude to extend this conceptualization to watershed scales. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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鄱阳湖区乐安河流域营养盐负荷影响因素分析 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:2
鄱阳湖作为中国最大的淡水湖,2000年后其水系和湖体水质总体都呈下降趋势.以鄱阳湖流域内的典型流域——乐安河流域为例,初步分析了流域内面源污染的主要影响因素、主要污染成分及其对污染程度的影响.研究表明,氮比磷对水质影响更明显,氮的3种物质形态中硝态氮(NO-3-N)含量最高,对水质影响也最大.根据总氮和NO-3-N浓度差异可将流域内的水质分为4个区域,从上游到下游富营养化程度不断升高,最上游为Ⅱ类水质,而最下游的总氮浓度接近Ⅳ类水标准.3年监测期内降雨量和强度的变化导致氮、磷浓度的巨大差异,林地对面源污染物有较好的消减作用,而农田的氮、磷流失是营养物产生的主要来源,人类活动特别是农事活动对土壤氮、磷的干扰是导致氮、磷浓度年内变化的主要原因.因此,削减流域内营养盐的产生、减少入湖河流携带污染物总量是改善鄱阳湖水质的重要途径. 相似文献
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Simulated multi-scale watershed runoff and sediment production based on GeoWEPP model 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:3
YU Xinxiao ZHANG Xiaoming NIU Lili Prof. Dr. Key Laboratory of Soil Water Conservation Desertification Combating Ministry of Education School of Soil Water Conservation Beijing Forestry University Beijing China Dr. China Institute of Water Resource Hydropower Research Beijing China Dr. ... 《国际泥沙研究》2009,24(4):465-478
The runoff and sediment yield data from the Qiaozidonggou, Qiaozixigou, and Lu'ergou watersheds, in the Loess Plateau of China are used to calibrate and validate the runoff and sediment yield simulated by GeoWEPP model of the WEPP Model at watershed scale. The indices of relative error, R, correlation coefficient, Re, and Nash-Suttcliffe efficiency coefficient Ens are used to evaluate the model fit. The eco-hydrological responses in the Luoyugou and Lu'ergou watersheds are also forecast based on the WEPP Model. Meanwhile, the relation between vegetation pattern changes and sediment yield in the watershed is discussed, and the responses of runoff and sediment yield in the watersheds concerning forest growth stages are studied. The results show that the relative errors of simulated values of runoff and sediment yield are below 30%, the correlation coefficients axe above 0.90, and the Nash-Suttcliffe efficiency coefficients axe above 0.80. The simulation results present satisfactory performance, thus, the model could be used to simulate the runoff and sediment yield in these small watersheds. It is also observed that soil erosion tended to become severe as precipitation increased in the watershed, while soil erosion has a decreasing trend as forest cover increases and vegetation pattern is optimized. When the watershed is fully covered by forest, erosion and sediment yield are minimized. When the forest cover is about 30% and evenly distributed in the watershed, the erosion intensity is lower than if the forest cover is collectively distributed in the watershed. Erosion varies with different forest growth stages in the watershed; it is more serious at the young and near planting stage and is the smallest at the mature forest stage. 相似文献
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R.J. Luxmoore 《Journal of Hydrology》1983,65(4):271-278
Field-determined infiltration characteristics used as input to an infiltration equation combined with adjusted parameters in a variable contributing area (VCA) algorithm of a hydrologic model were used to provide agreement between the annual simulated runoff and measurements from the grassland watershed site. Any discrepancy in Hortonian runoff from the infiltration calculations was compensated for by VCA runoff in the hydrologic simulation. Evaluation of the VCA parameterization suggested that contributions of VCA runoff to total streamflow were unreasonably high and that the infiltration parameters overpredicted annual infiltration. It is recommended that field measurements of infiltration characteristics for hydrologic studies be obtained during the season with predominant Hortonian runoff. 相似文献
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Lumped surface and sub‐surface runoff for erosion modeling within a small hilly watershed in northern Vietnam 下载免费PDF全文
Yen Tan Bui D. Orange S. M. Visser Chu Thai Hoanh M. Laissus A. Poortinga Duc Toan Tran L. Stroosnijder 《水文研究》2014,28(6):2961-2974
Developing models to predict on‐site soil erosion and off‐site sediment transport at the agricultural watershed scale represent an on‐going challenge in research today. This study attempts to simulate the daily discharge and sediment loss using a distributed model that combines surface and sub‐surface runoffs in a small hilly watershed (< 1 km2). The semi‐quantitative model, Predict and Localize Erosion and Runoff (PLER), integrates the Manning–Strickler equation to simulate runoff and the Griffith University Erosion System Template equation to simulate soil detachment, sediment storage and soil loss based on a map resolution of 30 m × 30 m and over a daily time interval. By using a basic input data set and only two calibration coefficients based, respectively, on water velocity and soil detachment, the PLER model is easily applicable to different agricultural scenarios. The results indicate appropriate model performance and a high correlation between measured and predicted data with both Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (Ef) and correlation coefficient (r2) having values > 0.9. With the simple input data needs, PLER model is a useful tool for daily runoff and soil erosion modeling in small hilly watersheds in humid tropical areas. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献