Process-based model for nearshore hydrodynamics, sediment transport and morphological evolution in the surf and swash zones

Hydrodynamics and sediment transport in the nearshore zone were modeled numerically taking into account turbulent unsteady flow. The flow field was computed using the Reynolds Averaged Navier–Stokes equations with a k–ε turbulence closure model, while the free surface was tracked using the Volume-Of-Fluid technique. This hydrodynamical model was supplemented with a cross-shore sediment transport formula to calculate profile changes and sediment transport in the surf and swash zones. Based on the numerical solutions, flow characteristics and the effects of breaking waves on sediment transport were studied. The main characteristic of breaking waves, i.e. the instantaneous sediment transport rate, was investigated numerically, as was the spatial distribution of time-averaged sediment transport rates for different grain sizes. The analysis included an evaluation of different values of the wave friction factor and an empirical constant characterizing the uprush and backwash. It was found that the uprush induces a larger instantaneous transport rate than the backwash, indicating that the uprush is more important for sediment transport than the backwash. The results of the present model are in reasonable agreement with other numerical and physical models of nearshore hydrodynamics. The model was found to predict well cross-shore sediment transport and thus it provides a tool for predicting beach morphology change.     

Probabilistic tectonic heat flow modeling for basin maturation: Assessment method and applications

Tectonic modeling is often neglected in the basin modeling workflow and heat flow is most times considered a user input. Such heat flows can, therefore, result in erroneous basin modeling outcomes, resulting in false overoptimistic identification of prospective areas or failure to identify prospects. This is particularly true for areas with limited data control such as frontier basin areas, or deep unexplored plays in mature basins.     

渤海天文-风暴潮数值模拟和一种多年一遇极值水位的计算方法

在渤海选用了82个强天气过程,利用三维模式模拟了海区的天文-风暴潮,模式经实测资料检验,获得了较满意的模拟结果。根据渤海沿岸主要验潮站观测年极值高(低)水位和年极值风增(减)水所得到的多年一遇高(低)水位和多年一遇风增(减)水,以及天文最高(最低)潮位,建立了由多年一遇风增(减)水和天文最高(最低)潮位的线性组合计算多年一遇高(低)水位的计算公式,并以此公式推算了渤海海区5个典型地区的多年一遇高(低)水位,供海洋工程设计时使用。     

Predicting tidal flooding of urbanized embayments: A modeling framework and data requirements

Numerous urbanized embayments in California are at risk of flooding during extreme high tides caused by a combination of astronomical, meteorologic and climatic factors (e.g., El Niño), and the risk will increase as sea levels rise and storminess intensifies. Across California, the potential exists for billions of dollars in losses by 2100 and predictive inundation models will be relied upon at the local level to plan adaptation strategies and forecast localized flood impacts to support emergency management. However, the predictive skill of urban inundation models for extreme tide events has not been critically examined particularly in relation to data quality and flood mapping methodologies. With a case study of Newport Beach, California, we show that tidal flooding can be resolved along streets and at individual parcels using a 2D hydraulic inundation model that captures embayment amplification of the tide, overtopping of flood defenses, and overland flow along streets and into parcels. Furthermore, hydraulic models outperform equilibrium flood mapping methodologies which ignore hydraulic connectivity and are strongly biased towards over-prediction of flood extent. However, infrastructure geometry data including flood barriers, street and parcel elevations are crucial to accurate flood prediction. A real time kinematic (RTK) survey instrument with an error of approximately 1 cm (RMSE) is found to be suitable for barrier height measurement, but an error of approximately15 cm (RMSE) typical of aerial laser scanning or LiDAR is found to be inadequate. Finally, we note that the harbor waterfront in Newport Beach is lined by a patchwork of public and private parcels and flood barriers of varied designs and integrity. Careful attention to hydraulic connectivity (e.g., low points and gaps in barriers) is needed for successful flood prediction.     

Top-down modeling and bottom-up dynamics: Linking a fisheries-based ecosystem model with climate hypotheses in the Northern California Current

In this paper we present results from dynamic simulations of the Northern California Current ecosystem, based on historical estimates of fishing mortality, relative fishing effort, and climate forcing. Climate can affect ecosystem productivity and dynamics both from the bottom-up (through short- and long-term variability in primary and secondary production) as well as from the top-down (through variability in the abundance and spatial distribution of key predators). We have explored how the simplistic application of climate forcing through both bottom-up and top-down mechanisms improves the fit of the model dynamics to observed population trends and reported catches for exploited components of the ecosystem. We find that using climate as either a bottom-up or a top-down forcing mechanism results in substantial improvements in model performance, such that much of the variability observed in single species models and dynamics can be replicated in a multi-species approach. Using multiple climate variables (both bottom-up and top-down) simultaneously did not provide significant improvement over a model with only one forcing. In general, results suggest that there do not appear to be strong trophic interactions among many of the longer-lived, slower-growing rockfish, roundfish and flatfish in this ecosystem, although strong interactions were observed in shrimp, salmon and small flatfish populations where high turnover and predation rates have been coupled with substantial changes in many predator populations over the last 40 years.     

Interdecadal Variation of the Transition Zone Chlorophyll Front: A Physical-Biological Model Simulation between 1960 and 1990

The interdecadal climate variability affects marine ecosystems in both the subtropical and subarctic gyres, consequently the position of the Transition Zone Chlorophyll Front (TZCF). A three-dimensional physical-biological model has been used to study interdecadal variation of the TZCF using a retrospective analysis of a 30-year (1960–1990) model simulation. The physical-biological model is forced with the monthly mean heat flux and surface wind stress from the COADS. The modeled winter mixed layer depth (MLD) shows the largest increase between 30°N and 40°N in the central North Pacific, with a value of 40–60% higher during 1979–90 relative to 1964–75 values. The winter Ekman pumping velocity difference between 1979–90 and 1964–75 shows the largest increase located between 30°N and 45°N in the central and eastern North Pacific. The modeled winter surface nitrate difference between 1979–90 and 1964–75 shows increase in the latitudinal band between 30°N and 45°N from the west to the east (135°E–135°W), the modeled nitrate concentration is about 10 to 50% higher during the period of 1979–90 relative to 1964–75 values depending upon locations. The increase in the winter surface nitrate concentration during 1979-90 is caused by a combination of the winter MLD increase and the winter Ekman pumping enhancement. The modeled nitrate concentration increase after 1976–77 enhances primary productivity in the central North Pacific. Enhanced primary productivity after the 1976–77 climatic shift contributes higher phytoplankton biomass and therefore elevates chlorophyll level in the central North Pacific. Increase in the modeled chlorophyll expand the chlorophyll transitional zone and push the TZCF equatorward. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Beach Wizard: Nearshore bathymetry estimation through assimilation of model computations and remote observations

A data–model assimilation method (called “Beach Wizard”) is presented with which the nearshore subtidal bathymetry can be accurately estimated based on video-derived observations of wave roller dissipation and variation of the intertidal shoreline, and/or radar-derived observations of wave celerity. Using many consecutive images, these observed properties are compared with numerical model results, and through a simple, optimal least-squares estimator approach the estimated bathymetry is adjusted gradually for each image in order to improve the fit between model output and observations. The key advantages of the technique are that it is based on multiple sources of information (i.e., different remote sensors and/or data products), depends on only a few free parameters (to which the model results are insensitive), and shows good skill. Herein, the technique is applied to a synthetic case and two sets of field data from sites at Duck, NC (USA) and Egmond (The Netherlands). The method, which may be extended with observations of other properties from other sources than the three described in this paper, can deliver coastal state information (i.e., simultaneous updates of bathymetry, waves, and currents) with high temporal and spatial resolution and can be used in conjunction with or instead of in-situ measured data.     

Physical controls on mixing and transport within rising submarine hydrothermal plumes: A numerical simulation study

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to simulate the turbulent flow and species transport of deep-sea high temperature hydrothermal plumes. The model solves numerically the density weighted unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations and energy equation and the species transport equation. Turbulent entrainment and mixing is modeled by a k–ε turbulence closure model. The CFD model explicitly considers realistic vent chimney geometry, vent exit fluid temperature and velocity, and background stratification. The model uses field measurements as model inputs and has been validated by field data. These measurements and data, including vent temperature and plume physical structure, were made in the ABE hydrothermal field of the Eastern Lau Spreading Center. A parametric sensitivity study based on this CFD model was conducted to determine the relative importance of vent exit velocity, background stratification, and chimney height on the mixing of vent fluid and seawater. The CFD model was also used to derive several important scalings that are relevant to understanding plume impact on the ocean. These scalings include maximum plume rise height, neutrally buoyant plume height, maximum plume induced turbulent diffusivity, and total plume vertically transported water mass flux. These scaling relationships can be used for constructing simplified 1-dimensional models of geochemistry and microbial activity in hydrothermal plumes. Simulation results show that the classical entrainment assumptions, typically invoked to describe hydrothermal plume transport, only apply up to the vertical level of ~0.6 times the maximum plume rise height. Below that level, the entrainment coefficient remains relatively constant (~0.15). Above that level, the plume flow consists of a pronounced lateral spreading flow, two branches of inward flow immediately above and below the lateral spreading, and recirculation flanking the plume cap region. Both turbulent kinetic energy and turbulence dissipation rate reach their maximum near the vent; however, turbulent viscosity attains its maximum near the plume top, indicating strong turbulent mixing in that region. The parametric study shows that near vent physical conditions, including chimney height and fluid exit velocity, influence plume mixing from the vent orifice to a distance of ~10 times the vent orifice diameter. Thus, physical parameters place a strong kinetic constraint on the chemical reactions occurring in the initial particle-forming zone of hydrothermal plumes.     

Cold seeps at the salt front in the Lower Congo Basin II: The impact of spatial and temporal evolution of salt-tectonics on hydrocarbon seepage

This study investigates the distribution and evolution of seafloor seepage in the vicinity of the salt front, i.e., the seaward boundary of salt-induced deformation in the Lower Congo Basin (LCB). Seafloor topography, backscatter data and TV-sled observations indicate active fluid seepage from the seafloor directly at the salt front, whereas suspected seepage sites appear to be inactive at a distance of >10 km landward of the deformation front. High resolution multichannel seismic data give detailed information on the structural development of the area and its influence on the activity of individual seeps during the geologic evolution of the salt front region. The unimpeded migration of gas from fan deposits along sedimentary strata towards the base of the gas hydrate stability zone within topographic ridges associated with relatively young salt-tectonic deformation facilitates seafloor seepage at the salt front. Bright and flat spots within sedimentary successions suggest geological trapping of gas on the flanks of mature salt structures in the eastern part of the study area. Onlap structures associated with fan deposits which were formed after the onset of salt-tectonic deformation represent potential traps for gas, which may hinder gas migration towards seafloor seeps. Faults related to the thrusting of salt bodies seawards also disrupt along-strata gas migration pathways. Additionally, the development of an effective gas hydrate seal after the cessation of active salt-induced uplift and the near-surface location of salt bodies may hamper or prohibit seafloor seepage in areas of advanced salt-tectonic deformation. This process of seaward shifting active seafloor seepage may propagate as seaward migrating deformation affects Congo Fan deposits on the abyssal plain. These observations of the influence of the geologic evolution of the salt front area on seafloor seepage allows for a characterization of the large variety of hydrocarbon seepage activity throughout this compressional tectonic setting.     

Tidally averaged circulation in Puget Sound sub-basins: Comparison of historical data,analytical model,and numerical model

Through extensive field data collection and analysis efforts conducted since the 1950s, researchers have established an understanding of the characteristic features of circulation in Puget Sound. The pattern ranges from the classic fjordal behavior in some basins, with shallow brackish outflow and compensating inflow immediately below, to the typical two-layer flow observed in many partially mixed estuaries with saline inflow at depth. An attempt at reproducing this behavior by fitting an analytical formulation to past data is presented, followed by the application of a three-dimensional circulation and transport numerical model. The analytical treatment helped identify key physical processes and parameters, but quickly reconfirmed that response is complex and would require site-specific parameterization to include effects of sills and interconnected basins. The numerical model of Puget Sound, developed using unstructured-grid finite volume method, allowed resolution of the sub-basin geometric features, including presence of major islands, and site-specific strong advective vertical mixing created by bathymetry and multiple sills. The model was calibrated using available recent short-term oceanographic time series data sets from different parts of the Puget Sound basin. The results are compared against 1) recent velocity and salinity data collected in Puget Sound from 2006 and 2) a composite data set from previously analyzed historical records, mostly from the 1970s. The results highlight the ability of the model to reproduce velocity and salinity profile characteristics, their variations among Puget Sound sub-basins, and tidally averaged circulation. Sensitivity of residual circulation to variations in freshwater inflow and resulting salinity gradient in fjordal sub-basins of Puget Sound is examined.     

构造-沉积耦合过程的数值模拟：以南海北部阳江凹陷为例

以构造变形为核心的内动力过程和以沉积“源–汇”过程为核心的外动力过程,如何动态塑造盆地精细地貌景观,是油气精准勘探必须突破的关键技术。本研究以南海北部陆缘珠江口盆地的阳江凹陷为例,试图探索NW向阳江–一统暗沙深大断裂带对周缘新生代沉降中心分布的控制作用。为此,本文采用Badlands沉积数值模拟方法,定量分析阳江–一统暗沙断裂带的运动学特征,模拟阳江凹陷新生代地层构造-沉积耦合过程。模拟结果显示,阳江–一统暗沙断裂带在始新世末期是一条左行走滑断裂带,其走滑过程主要可分为两个阶段。其中,在早期慢走滑阶段,走滑位移量约800 m,沿断裂带走滑方向,恩平19洼的沉降中心发生迁移;在后期快走滑阶段,走滑位移量约1200 m,模拟剖面可识别出明显的花状构造,恩平19洼的沉降中心加速向北迁移,并发生逆时针旋转。     

The structural styles and formation mechanism of salt structures in the Southern Precaspian Basin: Insights from seismic data and analog modeling

Using the seismic profiles and analog modeling, this paper addresses the salt structures in the M and B blocks in the Southern Precaspian Basin. The salt structural features, the formation mechanism and the controlling factors of structural deformation are investigated and discussed systematically. The interpretation of the seismic profiles shows that typical salt-related structures include salt wall, (flip-flop) salt diapir, salt roller, salt pillow (dome), salt weld, salt withdrawal minibasin and drag structure (or drape fold). In addition, model results demonstrate that the gravity spreading driven by progradation and aggradation is probably the primary factor in controlling the formation of the salt structures in the research area. Due to the differential loading driven by progradation, passive salt diapir developed near the progradational front followed by the formation of intrasalt withdrawal minibasin bounded by two salt diapirs, and secondary reactive triangle salt diapir or salt pillow might form within the intrasalt withdrawal minibasin. Model results also indicate that the pattern of the subsalt basement has important influence on the formation and evolution of salt structures. Salt diapirs primarily developed along the margin of the subsalt uplift basement, where high shear deformation was induced by differential sedimentary loading between the uplift area and the slope area.     

A tidal creek water budget: Estimation of groundwater discharge and overland flow using hydrologic modeling in the Southern Everglades

Taylor Slough is one of the natural freshwater contributors to Florida Bay through a network of microtidal creeks crossing the Everglades Mangrove Ecotone Region (EMER). The EMER ecological function is critical since it mediates freshwater and nutrient inputs and controls the water quality in Eastern Florida Bay. Furthermore, this region is vulnerable to changing hydrodynamics and nutrient loadings as a result of upstream freshwater management practices proposed by the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Program (CERP), currently the largest wetland restoration project in the USA. Despite the hydrological importance of Taylor Slough in the water budget of Florida Bay, there are no fine scale (∼1 km²) hydrodynamic models of this system that can be utilized as a tool to evaluate potential changes in water flow, salinity, and water quality. Taylor River is one of the major creeks draining Taylor Slough freshwater into Florida Bay. We performed a water budget analysis for the Taylor River area, based on long-term hydrologic data (1999–2007) and supplemented by hydrodynamic modeling using a MIKE FLOOD (DHI, http://dhigroup.com/) model to evaluate groundwater and overland water discharges. The seasonal hydrologic characteristics are very distinctive (average Taylor River wet vs. dry season outflow was 6 to 1 during 1999–2006) with a pronounced interannual variability of flow. The water budget shows a net dominance of through flow in the tidal mixing zone, while local precipitation and evapotranspiration play only a secondary role, at least in the wet season. During the dry season, the tidal flood reaches the upstream boundary of the study area during approximately 80 days per year on average. The groundwater field measurements indicate a mostly upwards-oriented leakage, which possibly equals the evapotranspiration term. The model results suggest a high importance of groundwater contribution to the water salinity in the EMER. The model performance is satisfactory during the dry season where surface flow in the area is confined to the Taylor River channel. The model also provided guidance on the importance of capturing the overland flow component, which enters the area as sheet flow during the rainy season. Overall, the modeling approach is suitable to reach better understanding of the water budget in the mangrove region. However, more detailed field data is needed to ascertain model predictions by further calibrating overland flow parameters.     

Circulation and heat budget of the northern Adriatic Sea (Italy) due to a Bora event in January 2001: a numerical model study

The Princeton Ocean Model was implemented to investigate the response of northern Adriatic Sea during the Bora event in January 2001 when strong wind and surface cooling was reported. The model has been run with realistic wind stress, surface heat flux and river runoffs forcings continuously from 1 January 1999 to 31 January 2001. The wind stress and surface heat flux was computed by the bulk parameterization, using the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast analysis fields and the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set cloud data. All the freshwater sources along the Adriatic coastlines were represented by point or line source functions. Open boundary conditions in the Ionian Sea along a latitudinal boundary were nested within a large scale model of the Mediterranean Sea. The numerical study found that, before the Bora event of 13–17 January 2001, the water column of the northern Adriatic Sea was stratified by salinity, and the temperature was already cooler at the surface and over the shallower shelf region. The pre-Bora circulation of the northern Adriatic Sea was relatively weak and baroclinic with maximum surface currents occurred near the Italian coast. During the Bora event, the water column was well mixed in the most of coastal region of the northern Adriatic Sea. The atmospheric cooling produced colder water over the northern and western Adriatic Coast. The circulation of the northern Adriatic Sea was barotropic and dominantly wind driven, with maximum current speed of about 1 m s⁻¹. The numerical study also demonstrated that the Bora event decreased the heat content of the water column with an area averaged value of 205 W m⁻² over the shallow northern shelf. It was concluded that the heat budget of the northern Adriatic Sea during the Bora event was a balance between the surface heat loss, horizontal net heat inflow and resulting heat content decrease. The horizontal advection played a particularly important role in controlling the water temperature change over the shallower northern shelf.