政治性民意集团及其利益博弈：缅甸国内长期冲突的一个分析视角

文章首先提出了一个国内政治性行为主体影响国家政局的分析框架,然后从“民意”“民意政治”“政治性民意”的视角,依据各民意集团的构成主体、利益诉求、行为方式等要素对缅甸国内的政治性民意集团进行梳理和划分,分析了缅甸政治性民意集团形成的时空环境,并对其形成的过程与机制进行探讨。。研究发现,在缅甸特殊的历史和地理环境背景下,形成了基于利益诉求而相互博弈的六大主要的政治性民意集团。各政治性民意集团或采取平等协商签订协议,或软硬兼施诱使妥协,或使用强力打击迫使接受等手段、方式进行权利博弈,成为缅甸国内主要的政治性行为主体。各政治性民意集团的借力博弈对缅甸政局产生了深远的影响,民意集团之间冲突的实质是其集团利益超越国家利益,这是缅甸国内长期冲突的主要致因。从“民意”“民意政治”的视域来研究一国内部的民主问题、民族问题、宗教问题和冲突问题是富有尝试性和探索性的,缅甸的实证研究也为研究特定国家的相关问题提供一个新的视野和参考借鉴。     

The tendencies in the development of the system of specially protected natural territories of Siberia

An analysis is made of 100 years of development of specially protected natural territories of Siberia. Attention is centered on the characteristic features of territorial nature conservation which are determined by the dependence on the political, economic and managerial factors. The analysis revealed the periods of formation, decline, opposite trends and negative dynamics in the establishment of new protected natural territories. Using the history of reserve management and studies of Russia as an example, it is shown that most innovations were tested in Siberia, starting from the establishment of Russia’s first state zapovedniks and zakazniks and ending with the setting up of joint directorates of specially protected natural territories in recent years. It is pointed out that the approaches in substantiating the system of protected natural areas were characterized by fundamental differences: from the organization of “pristine benchmarks” of nature with the ideology of total non-interference, to “farm zapovedniks” for breeding valuable game animals and active maintenance of the population of rare species accompanied by measures to eliminate “harmful” species. The rivalry between the geographical and biocentric approaches is described: in the former case, the preservation of typical natural systems was dominant; in the latter case, the preservation of rare and endangered species was paramount. It is concluded that the unevenness of distribution of zapovedniks, zakazniks and national and natural parks depends on the degree of development and exploration of a relevant territory, the likelihood of a total disappearance of the most valuable areas, and on the existence of lands of indigenous ethnic groups. It is demonstrated that the process of development of the system of territorial nature conservation is governed by the administrative initiative, consideration for the characteristics of a region’s economic development and changeable institutional conditions as well as by the factors of the country’s foreign and internal policy.     

社会变革和制度文化制约下的“多尺度嵌入”——以缅甸莱比塘铜矿项目为例

“一带一路”倡议的深入推进加速了中国企业对外投资的步伐。而对于这些“走出去”的企业而言,往往面临着东道国社会环境及治理结构变革、制度制约、文化冲突等多重挑战。此前经济地理学提出的“主动嵌入”和“被动嵌入”,并不能完全解释“一带一路”倡议背景下中国企业在“走出去”过程中所呈现的“外资”与东道国治理结构、地方制度文化环境之间的复杂相互作用关系。本研究构建了“全球-国家-地方”多尺度嵌入的分析框架,以缅甸莱比塘铜矿为例,阐释企业如何通过多样化制度创新,顺应东道国的社会变革,突破制度和文化的制约,从而取得政府、企业、当地社区“多赢”局面的合作模式,从而从新的视角理解制度的多尺度性和尺度之间的相互作用。研究发现：尺度要素之间存在耦合关联作用,且作用模式有不同的组合,同时多个尺度要素的嵌入和影响过程也存在时序效应。最后,结合莱比塘案例,为中国企业“走出去”提出了政策建议。     

Metropolitan dynamics in Israel: an emerging “metropolitan island state”?

This study analyzes metropolitan dynamics in a small country with an “island state” context of closed boundaries, using commuting data and mobile phone tracking data. We examine whether the Israeli context encourages the formation of a monocentric “metropolitan state,” characterized by increasing links between localities throughout the country and its principal metropolitan node (Tel Aviv)—rather than with secondary metropolitan areas—and by fuzzy, overlapping metropolitan boundaries. Commuting data from the 1995 and 2008 censuses show that metropolitan expansion processes in Israel are gradual. Mobile phone tracking data for 2013 reveal similar patterns, confirming the urban structure’s stability and the reliability of tracking data as a means of assessing metropolitan processes. The “island state” context supports growing monocentricity, but, when it comes to commuting and travel for other purposes, Israel is not yet a metropolitan state; metropolitan boundaries are not as fuzzy and rapidly changing as expected.     

UPROOTED LIVES: GENDER, VIOLENCE AND DISPLACEMENT IN COLOMBIA

During the last decade, more than 600,000 people have been forced to leave rural areas and migrate to regional urban centres in Colombia as a result of political violence in which guerrilla and paramilitary groups and the armed forces are the principal actors. The number of displaced people is still increasing. Nearly 60 per cent of them are women, and at least 25 per cent of the displaced households are headed by women, most of whom are widows. Focusing on three regions of the country - the northern Caribbean Coast, the central Middle Magdalena region and the Eastern Plains - the effects of forced displacement on women and men are analysed in terms of intra-household relationships, survival strategies and gender identities. The paper evaluates the gains and losses for women and men in the process of displacement. It argues that displacement has the strongest impact on women during the stage of “destruction”, while men, confronted with unemployment and loss of identity, are most affected during the stage of “reconstruction”.     

Sustaining the “Societal and Scriptural Fence”: Cultural,Social, and Political Topographies of Same-Sex Marriage in Alabama

In June 2006, voters in Alabama overwhelmingly approved a statewide referendum that added a prohibition against same-sex marriage to the state's constitution. This research examines the Alabama vote by “placing” the politics of sexuality within the state's multifaceted web of cultural and social space. We fuse a traditional electoral geography approach with an overall postpositivist cultural and social perspective, beginning with an assessment of the politics of place by situating Alabama as a place with a long history of battles over the so-called culture wars. The cultural politics of the legislative debate and the geographic distribution of the actual vote are also examined within a socio-demographic context, drawing some comparisons from a similar vote in Georgia in 2004, another state in the American Deep South. Those opposed to same-sex marriage in Alabama made effective use of various social constructions that are deeply embedded within a “moral” geography, situating the state as a fenced-off bastion of “religious traditional values,” a common theme throughout the American South. In this vein, social boundaries and territory were demarcated as a powerful political act in Alabama, a strategy that situated the state as hetero-normatively “in place,” while deeming sexual minorities as “out of place.”     

Advancing development projects through mega-events: the 2010 football World Cup and bus rapid transit in South Africa

In 2010, the focus of the sporting world was on South Africa, the first African country to host a Football World Cup, and the largest mega-event ever held on the continent. Mega-events like the World Cup have become instruments for governments seeking material improvements to highways and telecommunications as well as the more elusive nation-building and sanguine legacies. Whereas the literature typically concentrates on stadia and sports-related infrastructure, this paper focuses on bus rapid transit (BRT) as an “indirect legacy” to understand the way in which cities exploit the financial and political capital made available to advance projects long delayed behind more pressing endeavors. The compressed time horizons, unlocked financing and focused planning can be a “mixed blessing” however by limiting the scope of the project to the event. The paper concludes that in South Africa advancing development through the World Cup reinforced state authority and legitimacy.     

RURAL-URBAN CLASSIFICATION AND MUNICIPAL GOVERNANCE IN INDIA

Rural‐urban classification constitutes an important framework for the collection and compilation of population data in many countries. While “urban” is often specifically defined, “rural” is treated simply as a residual category. The criteria defining urban also differ from country to country. This paper argues that these rural and urban statistical categories are also highly significant for local governance, increasingly so in recent years given the emphasis on local governance and its restructuring. In India, constitutional amendments have given constitutional status to local bodies in the federal structure of the country. Local bodies are thus now expected to draw up their own plans and initiate development works, which requires them to generate their own resources and lessen their dependence on central government funding. It is thus necessary to reorganize urban space into viable spatial units in terms of their revenue base. While rural‐urban classification is the task of the Census of India, state governments are responsible for granting municipal status to urban centres. This paper examines the criteria and limitations of the rural‐urban classification followed by the Census, its congruence with the dynamics of state‐accorded municipal/non‐municipal status and some implications for municipal governance in India.     

State Legitimacy and the Unending Crisis of Petrol Subsidy Reforms in Nigeria

Why would the citizens of an oil-producing state continually resist reform-induced petrol price increases, even when subsidy payments are proved to be a serious threat to the capacity of the state to deliver its core constitutional mandates? In this paper, we tackle this question by contending that the difficulty in petrol subsidy implementation in a country like Nigeria has more to do with the clear lack of state legitimacy and public trust, and the recorded cases of political instability entrenched by forced attempts at reforms. By contextualizing the reform efforts in Nigeria within the framework of the relationship between state legitimacy and reforms, we are able to provide valid insights to a broader understanding of the “whys” of public resistance to the authority of the state to enforce reform. The Nigerian case, as revealed in this article, provides evidence of a shift in paradigm from the conventional and dominant Weberian emphasis of state legitimacy around the nature and sources of state authorities to a more functional context of citizens’ perception of the governance process as a source of legitimacy.     

基于CiteSpace中国海洋经济研究的知识图谱分析

利用CiteSpace可视化文献分析工具对1982~2013年CNKI总库中文核心期刊以及CSSCI中文社会科学引文数据库中海洋经济研究的3 441篇相关文献进行分析,绘制出研究热点、核心作者群及研究机构的知识结构图谱。结果表明：自中国海洋经济研究会成立以来,中国海洋经济研究主要围绕 “海洋经济”、“海洋产业”、“可持续发展”、“海洋资源”、“海洋开发”、“滨海旅游”等展开;韩增林、张耀光、郑贵斌、殷克东、李靖宇、徐志斌等是主要的发文作者;国家海洋局、中国海洋大学、辽宁师范大学和广东海洋大学为发文较多的机构;《海洋开发与管理》是海洋经济相关研究载文量最多的期刊,《经济地理》、《中国人口·资源与环境》、《地域研究与开发》、《资源科学》等是主要的载文核心期刊。除了传统的海洋经济研究视角下,区域海洋经济差异、海洋产业结构与布局及优化、海洋产业竞争力、海洋产业集群、现代海洋产业、海洋资源开发利用的可持续、人海关系的脆弱性、滨海旅游等的研究外,在新的国际和国内形势下,海洋经济相关理论、战略性新兴海洋产业研究、海洋经济可持续发展研究、及“一路一带”战略对海洋经济相关研究的新要求也是需要重点关注的方面。     

从珠三角到大珠三角再到粤港澳大湾区：改革开放以来中国的国家尺度重组

尺度重组是解释当前国家、城市等地域组织参与全球化竞争的工具媒介。文章以中国华南地区改革开放以来广东、香港、澳门三地跨界合作为例,借鉴行动者网络理论的研究方法深入剖析珠三角、大珠三角及粤港澳大湾区3个“新国家空间”的尺度重组过程,揭示中国尺度重组的政治经济逻辑。研究发现,行动者拥有的资源决定了其在尺度网络中的地位,而中国的“新国家空间”形成主要依托中央政府推动,其发展目标的设定具有决定性作用,港澳特区政府、广东省地方政府、乡镇企业和外资企业等其他行动者在协同合作中将自身的发展目标与之融合形成了“强制通过点”。纵观三阶段的演变过程,制度因素的重要性越来越得到凸显。     

Southern Exceptionalism and the Perils of Region

Contemporary political trends associated with the rise of Donald Trump seem to confound traditional regional designations in the United States. Yet the concept of region remains salient in popular discourse. This is especially true with respect to “the South,” which appears in several recent nonacademic works as the source of troubling social and political currents. More surprising, given decades of critique of “Southern exceptionalism,” has been the reappearance of the South as a focus of analysis in the scholarly literature on immigration. This scholarly literature works to deessentialize the South by highlighting the vagaries and instabilities of Southern identities, institutions, and landscapes. It can, however, subtly and inadvertently reinforce Southern exceptionalism by identifying the South as a place marked by uniquely fraught histories of racial exclusion. This article critically assesses how the South as a regional concept has located the problem of race in the United States in a specific time and place. This leads to a broader discussion of the persistence of regional imaginaries in the discipline of geography and the need for more deliberate consideration of the geographical concepts that guide our analyses of societal change.     

缅甸民主改革以来政治冲突的时空分异与发展趋势分析

2012年缅甸民主改革以来,其国内外政治环境发生了重大变化,国内政治团体多样化趋势明显、政治环境复杂多变、政治冲突频发。基于此,以ACLED提供的缅甸政治冲突事件数据为研究基础,选取2010—2018年缅甸发生的政治冲突事件,运用空间统计分析和核密度分析方法,对缅甸政治冲突事件的时空演变进行分析,结果表明：缅甸政治冲突阶段性波动增长趋势显著,形成梯度集聚分布格局,呈现出以掸邦与克钦邦毗邻区、仰光、若开邦为核心的三级梯度集聚中心,并不断向周围扩散的空间演变趋势。近十年,整个演变过程由南向北逐渐转移,从东至西迅速扩散,以沿边、沿海集中向全国其他地区分散分布的态势。省邦尺度上政治冲突两极分化明显。同时,事件类型更为多样化,参与组织日趋复杂化。根据缅甸政治冲突的时空分异特征与发展趋势,今后“一带一路”倡议在缅建设及对缅投资时应当以都市区、缅族聚居区为核心,尽量避免高危地区,同时加强对缅地缘风险评估预警的研究,及时发布相关提醒,保障中资企业、相关部门和个体在缅开展交流合作中的安全。     

IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT: INDIGENOUS LAND‐RIGHTS ISSUES IN MALAYSIA*

The Malaysian government regards the country's indigenous peoples as “backward” and in need of “modernization.” It aims to assimilate them into the so‐called mainstream society and to incorporate their lands and resources into national and global markets. These policy objectives leave little scope for indigenous groups to pursue their own life projects. Indigenous communities want to share in the benefits of economic development, but they are not prepared to give up their lands, cultures, and identities to obtain them. They have attempted to ward off the negative consequences of development projects by forming advocacy nongovernmental organizations, engaging in various forms of resistance, and seeking redress of their grievances in the courts. Most of all, they want recognition of their rights to land and place. The efficacy of their agency is severely hampered by a battery of repressive laws and by their own political weakness.     

领域陷阱与中国在缅甸北部的跨国禁毒实践

非法毒品不仅给国家安全和社会稳定带来新的挑战,也促使地理学者深入研究并揭示毒品贸易背后的地缘政治因素和经济社会问题。目前,中国已经成为缅甸北部“金三角”核心区域毒品的主要市场之一,基于中国政府恪守和平共处五项基本原则,无法对盘踞在“金三角”的毒贩进行有效的打击和根除。面对跨国毒贩,中国政府陷入了John Agnew提出的“领域陷阱”。如何在尊重缅甸国家主权的前提下实施有效的跨国禁毒,以维护中缅边境的安全和云南的社会稳定?本文借助政策报告和深度访谈资料,揭示毒品贸易的非传统安全属性,并且分析中国在缅甸北部的禁毒实践——采取武装威慑与替代种植。前者针对毒贩和跨国毒品集团,后者主要面向缅北依赖罂粟种植的农民。两种实践策略针对不同群体,相辅相成,标本兼治,不仅在缅甸领土主权和中缅边境安全之间找到了平衡,也为中国政府克服“领域陷阱”,建构了有效的跨国管制机制。本文丰富了地理学者对于领土主权、地缘政治以及边境安全的探讨,可为中国西南边境共建“一带一路”提供有益借鉴。     

Explaining State‐Environmental NGO Relations in the Philippines and Indonesia

This paper explains how the notion of “critical engagement” has been a popular basis for NGO‐state relations in the Philippines and Indonesia. It has been used, moreover, in both liberal democratic (post‐1985 Philippines) and authoritarian (late 1960s to late 1990s Indonesia) political regimes. For both states and reform‐minded NGOs, critical engagement has represented a flexible means by which to pursue assorted political, economic and social ends. In a context of regional political and economic upheaval, it is likely to remain popular with both states and many NGOs for the foreseeable future.     

THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE LOCAL STATE IN SOUTH AFRICA (1979-1991): GROUP AREAS,PROPERTY “SUPER-TAXATION,” AND CIVIC ORGANIZATIONS

This paper analyzes the development of the property “super-taxation” problem experienced by Indians and coloreds in Pietermaritzburg, South Africa, in the post-1979/1980 period. Within theoretical perspectives on the local state, the resistance of the Pietermaritzburg Combined Ratepayers and Residents' Association (PCRRA) to the high property taxes resulting from the implementation of the Group Areas Act at the local level, is discussed. The paper explains how the PCRRA, a civic organization, used the property taxation issue to extend its demands to include the repeal of the Group Areas Act, the creation of a single non-racial City Council and the elimination of the racially based, advisory Local Affairs Committees (LACs). It also examines the conflict in terms of local-central state relations and the formation of alliances amongst the popular classes in Pietermaritzburg. The paper highlights the capacity of ordinary citizens (human agency) to effect the political transformation of apartheid state structures.     

中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易及其影响因素

利用拓展贸易引力模型,借助Eviews等工具分析了影响中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易规模的因素,以及中国对外直接投资的滞后性对双边贸易的影响。结果表明：1）中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易规模受到经济发展水平、市场规模、政治制度、贸易畅通性、便利性、中国对外直接投资、民间文化交流紧密度的影响;2）中国对外直接投资对于带动中国与“一带一路”沿线国家间的贸易规模具有正向作用,但其效应具有一定滞后性;3）中国对外直接投资对于带动中国与不同“一带一路”沿线国家贸易规模的引力大小不同,可分为投资带动力巨大型、投资带动型、投资一般型、投资带动力不足型4种类型,中国与东南亚、西亚和撒哈拉以南的非洲国家贸易规模受中国对外直接投资带动作用较强。     

Bargaining for nature: treating the environment in China’s urban planning practice

ABSTRACT

In much of the contemporary academic inquiry and political discourse on Chinese cities, urban entrepreneurialism and environmentalism often appear to be analyzed disjointedly and unreflectively. They are portrayed as two conflicting interests. Commentators also view urban planners as a homogenous group of professionals and/or state agents being forced to give up environmental goals to pursue economic value of space. Using the case of Tianjin Eco-City planning, this article interrogates the bargaining process between the “ecological value” and “commodity narrative”. It offers three major arguments. First, even though the discourse of environmental sustainability has been used to legitimize economic transformation, ecological demands are creating new pressures on entrepreneurial urban governance. Second, rather than treating Chinese planners as a fully constituted, internally coherent, organizationally-fixed, and operationally-consistent group, they should be viewed as hybrid, and diverse entities that represent divergent and sometimes contentious state interests. Third, planners, though still under tremendous pressure from landed interests, can become active players to positively influence urban transformation toward more environmental care.     

A story of “communities”: boundaries,geographical composition and social coherence in a forest conservation project,Northern Cambodia

Explicit notions of “communities”, as key actors in conservation and development projects across the Global South, are common. Narratives about “indigenous people” or “forest-dependent communities” in forest conservation programmes prevail, portraying a picture of “communities” as homogeneous and harmonious entities. In this study, we unfold “communities” as a construct with an empirical example of a community-based forest protection project, Northern Cambodia. Based on qualitative interviews, field observations and document analysis, we examine the “community” construct in terms of establishment of boundaries, geographical composition and social coherence. We not only find that the establishment of forest “community” boundaries are dominated by powerful external actors rather than the “community members” themselves, but that the spatial composition of “communities” is complex, and affects the ability of local people to benefit from the project. We also find that the studied “communities” show low levels of social coherence and mainly consist of migrant farmers, as opposed to common policy narratives. Taking these inconsistencies into account, we discuss implications of constructing “communities” for the success of forest conservation projects, and argue in favour of more discursive and political analyses to better understand, acknowledge and adapt to existing and changing conditions in present and prospective project locations.