Solar Grand Minima and Random Fluctuations in?Dynamo Parameters

We consider to what extent the long-term dynamics of cyclic solar activity in the form of Grand Minima can be associated with random fluctuations of the parameters governing the solar dynamo. We consider fluctuations of the alpha coefficient in the conventional Parker migratory dynamo, and also in slightly more sophisticated dynamo models, and demonstrate that they can mimic the gross features of the phenomenon of the occurrence of Grand Minima over suitable parameter ranges. The temporal distribution of these Grand Minima appears chaotic, with a more or less exponential waiting time distribution, typical of Poisson processes. In contrast, however, the available reconstruction of Grand Minima statistics based on cosmogenic isotope data demonstrates substantial deviations from this exponential law. We were unable to reproduce the non-Poissonic tail of the waiting time distribution either in the framework of a simple alpha-quenched Parker model or in its straightforward generalization, nor in simple models with feedback on the differential rotation. We suggest that the disagreement may only be apparent and is plausibly related to the limited observational data, and that the observations and results of numerical modeling can be consistent and represent physically similar dynamo regimes.     

Long-Term Changes in Sunspot Activity,Occurrence of Grand Minima,and Their Future Tendencies

Long-term changes in the magnetic activity of the Sun were studied in terms of the empirical mode decomposition that revealed their essential modes. The occurrence of grand minima was also studied in their relation to long-term changes in sunspot activity throughout the past 11 000 yr. Characteristic timescales of long-term changes in solar activity manifest themselves in the occurrence of grand minima. A quantitative criterion has been defined to identify epochs of grand minima. This criterion reveals the important role of secular and bicentennial activity variations in the occurrence of grand minima and relates their amplitudes with the current activity level, which is variable on a millennial timescale. We have revealed specific patterns in the magnetic activity between successive grand minima which tend to recur approximately every 2300 yr but occasionally alternate with irregular changes. Such intermittent activity behavior indicates low dimensional chaos in the solar dynamo due to the interplay of its dominant modes. The analysis showed that in order to forecast activity level in forthcoming cycles, one should take into account long-term changes in sunspot activity on a ≈2300-yr timescale. The regularities revealed suggest solar activity to decrease in the foreseeable future.     

The Minimum Activity Epoch as a Precursor of the Solar Activity

This paper considers the indices characterizing the minimum activity epoch, according to the data of large-scale magnetic fields and polar activity. Such indices include: dipole–octopole index, area and average latitude of the field with dominant polarity in each hemisphere, polar activity seen in polar faculae and Ca?ii K line bright points, coronal emission line intensity (5303?Å) and others. We studied the correlation between these indices and the amplitude of the following sunspot cycle, and the relation between the duration of the cycle of large-scale magnetic fields and the duration of the sunspot cycle. The obtained relationships allow us to presume that the polar field is formed from the sources of both preceding and the current activity cycles during the decay phase and at the activity minimum. The balance in these sources would therefore determine the features of the following sunspot cycle. The prediction for the 24th activity cycle using these results leads to W=102±13.     

The Solar Dynamo and Its Phase Transitions during the Last Millennium

Variations in total solar irradiance (TSI) correlate well with changes in projected area of photospheric magnetic flux tubes associated with dark sunspots and bright faculae in active regions and network. This correlation does not, however, rule out possible TSI contributions from photospheric brightness inhomogeneities located outside flux tubes and spatially correlated with them. Previous reconstructions of TSI report agreement with radiometry that seems to rule out significant “extra-flux-tube” contributions. We show that these reconstructions are more sensitive to the facular contrasts used than has been generally recognized. Measurements with the Solar Bolometric Imager (SBI) provide the first reliable support for the relatively high, wide-band, disk-center contrasts required to produce 10% rms agreement. Longer term bolometric imaging will be required to determine whether the small but systematic TSI residuals we see here are caused by remaining errors in spot and facular areas and contrasts or by extra-flux-tube brightness structures such as bright rings around sunspots or “convective stirring” around active regions.     

Comparisons of Supergranule Characteristics During the Solar Minima of Cycles 22/23 and 23/24

Supergranulation is a component of solar convection that manifests itself on the photosphere as a cellular network of around 35 Mm across, with a turnover lifetime of 1 – 2 days. It is strongly linked to the structure of the magnetic field. The horizontal, divergent flows within supergranule cells carry local field lines to the cell boundaries, while the rotational properties of supergranule upflows may contribute to the restoration of the poloidal field as part of the dynamo mechanism, which controls the solar cycle. The solar minimum at the transition from cycle 23 to 24 was notable for its low level of activity and its extended length. It is of interest to study whether the convective phenomena that influence the solar magnetic field during this time differed in character from periods of previous minima. This study investigates three characteristics (velocity components, sizes and lifetimes) of solar supergranulation. Comparisons of these characteristics are made between the minima of cycles 22/23 and 23/24 using MDI Doppler data from 1996 and 2008, respectively. It is found that whereas the lifetimes are equal during both epochs (around 18 h), the sizes are larger in 1996 (35.9 ± 0.3 Mm) than in 2008 (35.0 ± 0.3 Mm), while the dominant horizontal velocity flows are weaker (139 ± 1 m s⁻¹ in 1996; 141 ± 1 m s⁻¹ in 2008). Although numerical differences are seen, they are not conclusive proof of the most recent minimum being inherently unusual.     

The Kinematic Theory of Solar Dynamo

Generation of the Sun‘s magnetic fields by self-inductive processes in the solar electrically conducting interior, the solar dynamo theory, is a fundamentally important subject in astrophysics. The kinematic dynamo theory concerns how the magnetic fields are produced by kinematically possible flows without being constrained by the dynamic equation. We review a number of basic aspects of the kinematic dynamo theory, including the magnetohydrodynamic approximation for the dynamo equation, the impossibility of dynamo action with the solar differential rotation, the Cowling‘s anti-dynamo theorem in the solar context, the turbulent alpha effect and recently constructed three-dimensional interface dynamos controlled by the solar tachocline at the base of the convection zone.     

Combined Analysis of Solar Neutrino and Solar Irradiance Data: Further Evidence for Variability of the Solar Neutrino Flux and Its Implications Concerning the Solar Core

A search for any particular feature in any single solar neutrino dataset is unlikely to establish variability of the solar neutrino flux since the count rates are very low. It helps to combine datasets, and in this article we examine data from both the Homestake and GALLEX experiments. These show evidence of modulation with a frequency of 11.85 year⁻¹, which could be indicative of rotational modulation originating in the solar core. We find that precisely the same frequency is prominent in power spectrum analyses of the ACRIM irradiance data for both the Homestake and GALLEX time intervals. These results suggest that the solar core is inhomogeneous and rotates with a sidereal frequency of 12.85 year⁻¹. From Monte Carlo calculations, it is found that the probability that the neutrino data would by chance match the irradiance data in this way is only 2 parts in 10 000. This rotation rate is significantly lower than that of the inner radiative zone (13.97 year⁻¹) as recently inferred from analysis of Super-Kamiokande data, suggesting that there may be a second, inner tachocline separating the core from the radiative zone. This opens up the possibility that there may be an inner dynamo that could produce a strong internal magnetic field and a second solar cycle.     

An Analysis of the Sunspot Groups and Flares of Solar Cycle 23

Designing a statistical solar flare forecasting technique can benefit greatly from knowledge of the flare frequency of occurrence with respect to sunspot groups. This study analyzed sunspot groups and Hα and X-ray flares reported for the period 1997 – 2007. Annual catalogs were constructed, listing the days that numbered sunspot groups were observed (designated sunspot group-days, SSG-Ds) and for each day a record for each associated Hα flare of importance category one or greater and normal or bright brightness and for each X-ray flare of intensity C 5 or higher. The catalogs were then analyzed to produce frequency distributions of SSG-Ds by year, sunspot group class, likelihood of producing at least one flare overall and by sunspot group class, and frequency of occurrence of numbers of flares per day and flare intensity category. Only 3% of SSG-Ds produced a substantial Hα flare and 7% had a significant X-ray flare. We found that mature, complex sunspot groups were more likely than simple sunspot groups to produce a flare, but the latter were more prevalent than the former. More than half of the SSG-Ds with flares had a maximum intensity flare greater than the lowest category (C-class of intensity five and higher). The fact that certain sunspot group classes had flaring probabilities significantly higher than the combined probabilities of the intensity categories when all SSG-Ds were considered suggest that it might be best to first predict the flaring probability. For sunspot groups found likely to flare, a separate diagnosis of maximum flare intensity category appears feasible.     

Periodicity and Hemispheric Phase Relationship in High-Latitude Solar Activity

The counts of the monthly averaged polar faculae, from observations of the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ), are examined by using linear and nonlinear approaches to find the periodicity characteristics of the polar faculae in the northern and southern hemispheres and the phase relationship between them. Both the cross-wavelet transform (XWT) and wavelet coherence (WTC) indicate the prominent period with 95% confidence level, namely the Schwabe cycle of about 11 years. The Schwabe cycle is in phase in the two hemispheres. Within the 11-year frequency band, there is a small phase difference during the period of 1966 – 1975 when the activity of polar faculae in the northern hemisphere slightly leads the one in the southern hemisphere. A cross-recurrence plot analysis and the line of synchronization (LOS) extracted from the cross-recurrence plot show further the phase difference between the two hemispheres. The LOS deviates significantly from the main diagonal during the period of 1965 – 1970 and LOS >0, showing that the activity of polar faculae in the northern hemisphere leads in phase, which is in accordance with XWT and WTC analyses. Moreover, asynchronization is highest (about 30 months) during this period.     

Solar Magnetism and the Activity Telescope at HSOS

A new solar telescope system is described, which has been operating at Huairou Solar Observing Station (HSOS), National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), since the end of 2005. This instrument, the Solar Magnetism and Activity Telescope (SMAT), comprises two telescopes which respectively make measurements of full solar disk vector magnetic field and Hα observation. The core of the full solar disk video vector magnetograph is a birefringent filter with 0.1  bandpass, installed in the tele-centric optical system of the telescope. We present some preliminary observational results of the full solar disk vector magnetograms and Hα filtergrams obtained with this telescope system.     

Kinematic Numerical Simulations of the Solar Dynamo: Dependence on α and Ω Values

We investigated the generation of dynamo waves in the solar convection zone through a numerical simulation. We integrated the axisymmetric α–Ω kinematic dynamo equations in a spherical geometry, where the α- and Ω-profiles depend on the spatial coordinates. The model results show that the fundamental parameter that determines the behavior of the system is the product between the characteristic intensities of the α and Ω contributions. In particular, we found three different regimes in which the system exhibits different behaviors: a regime without a dynamo effect, one with an exponential amplification of the magnetic field, and one with dynamo waves.     

Solar Activity and Classical Physics

1 INTRODUCTION The Sun is close enough to observe in some detail, and it shows that a star is more than the traditional stable self-gravitating thermonuclear body established half a celltury ago. For the fact is that out of sight beneath the visible surface the outward flow of heat from the thermonuclear core drives hydrodynamics that generates magnetic fields. It is the complicated dynamics of those magnetic fields that produces the modern mysteries of the active Sun. The…     

A Change in the Solar He ii EUV Global Network Structure as an Indicator of the Geo-Effectiveness of Solar Minima

Solar activity during 2007?–?2009 was very low, causing anomalously low thermospheric density. A comparison of solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance in the He?ii spectral band (26 to 34 nm) from the Solar Extreme ultraviolet Monitor (SEM), one of instruments on the Charge Element and Isotope Analysis System (CELIAS) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) for the two latest solar minima showed a decrease of the absolute irradiance of about 15±6 % during the solar minimum between Cycles 23 and 24 compared with the Cycle 22/23 minimum when a yearly running-mean filter was used. We found that some local, shorter-term minima including those with the same absolute EUV flux in the SEM spectral band show a higher concentration of spatial power in the global network structure from the 30.4 nm SOHO/Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) images for the local minimum of 1996 compared with the minima of 2008?–?2011. We interpret this higher concentration of spatial power in the transition region’s global network structure as a larger number of larger-area features on the solar disk. These changes in the global network structure during solar minima may characterize, in part, the geo-effectiveness of the solar He?ii EUV irradiance in addition to the estimations based on its absolute levels.     

Dependence of the Characteristics of Solar Wind Discontinuities and Shocks with Heliolatitude and Radial Distance

The distribution of the shocks in the heliosphere and their characteristic variations are investigated using Ulysses observations. The jumps in solar wind velocity, IMF magnitude, and proton density across the shocks and discontinuities are evaluated and used to characterize them. The distribution of these discontinuities with respect to heliolatitude ± 80° and with radial distance 1 to 5 AU are analyzed during solar minimum and solar maximum to understand their global behavior. It is noticed that the jumps in solar wind parameters associated with shocks and discontinuities are more prominent during the second orbit of Ulysses, which coincided with the maximum phase of solar activity.     

The 27-Day and 22-Year Cycles in Solar and Geomagnetic Activity

We study the evolution of the longitudinal asymmetry in solar activity through the wave packet technique applied to the period domain of 25 – 31 days (centered at the 27-day solar rotation period) for the sunspot number and geomagnetic aa index. We observe the occurrence of alternating smaller and larger amplitudes of the 11-year cycle, resulting in a 22-year periodicity in the 27-day signal. The evolution of the 22-year cycle shows a change of regime around the year 1912 when the 22-year period disappears from the sunspot number series and appears in the aa index. Other changes, such as a change in the correlation between solar and geomagnetic activity, took place at the same time. Splitting the 27-day frequency domain of aa index shows an 11-year cycle for higher frequencies and a pure22-year cycle for lower frequencies, which we attribute to higher latitude coronal holes. This evidence is particularly clear after 1940, which is another benchmark in the evolution of the aa index. We discuss briefly the mechanisms that could account for the observed features of the 22-year cycle evolution.     

Solar Flare Activity and Variability of Electric Current Helicity

1 INTRODUCTIONRecently Bao, Zhang, Ai, and Zhang (1999), using Huairou vector magnetograph data,have shown that the average current helicity (h.) or the curreflt helicity imbalance ph of activeregions change rapidly after so1ar flares. Up'an the onset of flares it tends to decrease for a fewhours and then to increase again, whereas ifQ some cases the flare promotes an increase in thecurrent helicity The observations led to tbe fol1owing conclusions: (1) raPid and substantialchanges of c…     

Input Selection Based on Information Theory for Constructing Predictor Models of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Indices

Various phenomena with solar origin and their mutual dependence must be studied in order to predict behaviors in solar – terrestrial system. Linear statistical methods prevalent in analyzing natural systems may not be able to detect nonlinear dependencies among solar and geomagnetic processes. When relations, whether linear or nonlinear, between indices and their changes over time are revealed, better predictions can be made through appropriate modeling techniques. Selection of nonredundant input variables to build suitable models for prediction of solar and geomagnetic activity is of utmost importance. Mutual information is a tool that is capable of capturing all dependencies for detecting nonlinear relations and selecting the best subset of input variables by means of an applicable algorithm that maximizes information about the output and minimizes the shared information between inputs. High generalization power and improved interpretability of the selected inputs are the consequences of this analysis.     

Automated Detection of Oscillating Regions in the Solar Atmosphere

Recently observed oscillations in the solar atmosphere have been interpreted and modeled as magnetohydrodynamic wave modes. This has allowed for the estimation of parameters that are otherwise hard to derive, such as the coronal magnetic-field strength. This work crucially relies on the initial detection of the oscillations, which is commonly done manually. The volume of Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) data will make manual detection inefficient for detecting all of the oscillating regions. An algorithm is presented that automates the detection of areas of the solar atmosphere that support spatially extended oscillations. The algorithm identifies areas in the solar atmosphere whose oscillation content is described by a single, dominant oscillation within a user-defined frequency range. The method is based on Bayesian spectral analysis of time series and image filtering. A Bayesian approach sidesteps the need for an a-priori noise estimate to calculate rejection criteria for the observed signal, and it also provides estimates of oscillation frequency, amplitude, and noise, and the error in all of these quantities, in a self-consistent way. The algorithm also introduces the notion of quality measures to those regions for which a positive detection is claimed, allowing for simple post-detection discrimination by the user. The algorithm is demonstrated on two Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) datasets, and comments regarding its suitability for oscillation detection in SDO are made.     

Oscillatory Response of the 3D Solar Atmosphere to the Leakage of Photospheric Motion

The direct propagation of acoustic waves, driven harmonically at the solar photosphere, into the three-dimensional solar atmosphere is examined numerically in the framework of ideal magnetohydrodynamics. It is of particular interest to study the leakage of 5-minute global solar acoustic oscillations into the upper, gravitationally stratified and magnetised atmosphere, where the modelled solar atmosphere possesses realistic temperature and density stratification. This work aims to complement and bring further into the 3D domain our previous efforts (by Erdélyi et al., 2007, Astron. Astrophys. 467, 1299) on the leakage of photospheric motions and running magnetic-field-aligned waves excited by these global oscillations. The constructed model atmosphere, most suitable perhaps for quiet Sun regions, is a VAL IIIC derivative in which a uniform magnetic field is embedded. The response of the atmosphere to a range of periodic velocity drivers is numerically investigated in the hydrodynamic and magnetohydrodynamic approximations. Among others the following results are discussed in detail: i) High-frequency waves are shown to propagate from the lower atmosphere across the transition region, experiencing relatively low reflection, and transmitting most of their energy into the corona; ii) the thin transition region becomes a wave guide for horizontally propagating surface waves for a wide range of driver periods, and particularly at those periods that support chromospheric standing waves; iii) the magnetic field acts as a waveguide for both high- and low-frequency waves originating from the photosphere and propagating through the transition region into the solar corona. Electronic Supplementary Material  The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Short-Term Periodicities in Sunspot Activity and Flare Index Data during Solar Cycle 23

The short-term periodicities in sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, and flare index data are investigated in detail using the Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform (DCDFT) for the full disk of the Sun separately over the rising, the maximum, and the declining portions of solar cycle 23 (1996 – 2006). While sunspot numbers and areas show several significant periodicities in a wide range between 23.1 and 36.4 days, the flare index data do not exhibit any significant periodicity. The earlier conclusion of Pap, Tobiska, and Bouwer (1990, Solar Phys. 129, 165) and Kane (2003, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys. 65, 1169), that the 27-day periodicity is more pronounced in the declining portion of a solar cycle than in the rising and maximum ones, seems to be true for sunspot numbers and sunspot area data analyzed here during solar cycle 23.