Hydrologic Variability and Its Control of Phytoplankton Community Structure and Function in Two Shallow,Coastal, Lagoonal Ecosystems: The Neuse and New River Estuaries,North Carolina,USA

Hydrologic conditions, especially changes in freshwater input, play an important, and at times dominant, role in determining the structure and function of phytoplankton communities and resultant water quality of estuaries. This is particularly true for microtidal, shallow water, lagoonal estuaries, where water flushing and residence times show large variations in response to changes in freshwater inputs. In coastal North Carolina, there has been an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme climatic (hydrologic) events over the past 15 years, including eight hurricanes, six tropical storms, and several record droughts; these events are forecast to continue in the foreseeable future. Each of the past storms exhibited unique hydrologic and nutrient loading scenarios for two representative and proximate coastal plain lagoonal estuaries, the Neuse and New River estuaries. In this synthesis, we used a 13-year (1998–2011) data set from the Neuse River Estuary, and more recent 4-year (2007–2011) data set from the nearby New River Estuary to examine the effects of these hydrologic events on phytoplankton community biomass and composition. We focused on the ability of specific taxonomic groups to optimize growth under hydrologically variable conditions, including seasonal wet/dry periods, episodic storms, and droughts. Changes in phytoplankton community composition and biomass were strongly modulated by the amounts, duration, and seasonality of freshwater discharge. In both estuaries, phytoplankton total and specific taxonomic group biomass exhibited a distinctive unimodal response to varying flushing rates resulting from both event-scale (i.e., major storms, hurricanes) and more chronic seasonal changes in freshwater input. However, unlike the net negative growth seen at long flushing times for nano-/microphytoplankton, the pigments specific to picophytoplankton (zeaxanthin) still showed positive net growth due to their competitive advantage under nutrient-limited conditions. Along with considerations of seasonality (temperature regimes), these relationships can be used to predict relative changes in phytoplankton community composition in response to hydrologic events and changes therein. Freshwater inputs and droughts, while not manageable in the short term, must be incorporated in water quality management strategies for these and other estuarine and coastal ecosystems faced with increasing frequencies and intensities of tropical cyclones, flooding, and droughts.     

Phytoplankton Community Indicators of Short- and Long-term Ecological Change in the Anthropogenically and Climatically Impacted Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina, USA

Estuarine and coastal systems represent a challenge when it comes to determining the causes of ecological change because human and natural perturbations often interact. Phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a) and group-specific photopigment indicators were examined from 1994 to 2007 to assess community responses to nutrient and climatic perturbations in the Neuse River Estuary, NC. This system experienced nutrient enrichment and hydrologic variability, including droughts, and an increase in hurricanes. Freshwater input strongly interacted with supplies of the limiting nutrient nitrogen (N) and temperature to determine the location, magnitude, and composition of phytoplankton biomass. Multi-annual, seasonal, and episodic hydrologic perturbations, including changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical storms, hurricanes and droughts, caused significant shifts in phytoplankton community structure. Climatic oscillations can at times overwhelm anthropogenic nutrient inputs in terms of controlling algal bloom thresholds, duration, and spatial extent. Eutrophication models should incorporate climatically driven changes to better predict phytoplankton community responses to nutrient inputs and other anthropogenic perturbations.     

Evolving Paradigms and Challenges in Estuarine and Coastal Eutrophication Dynamics in a Culturally and Climatically Stressed World

Coastal watersheds support more than one half of the world’s human population and are experiencing unprecedented urban, agricultural, and industrial expansion. The freshwater–marine continua draining these watersheds are impacted increasingly by nutrient inputs and resultant eutrophication, including symptomatic harmful algal blooms, hypoxia, finfish and shellfish kills, and loss of higher plant and animal habitat. In addressing nutrient input reductions to stem and reverse eutrophication, phosphorus (P) has received priority traditionally in upstream freshwater regions, while controlling nitrogen (N) inputs has been the focus of management strategies in estuarine and coastal waters. However, freshwater, brackish, and full-salinity components of this continuum are connected structurally and functionally. Intensification of human activities has caused imbalances in N and P loading, altering nutrient limitation characteristics and complicating successful eutrophication control along the continuum. Several recent examples indicate the need for dual N and P input constraints as the only nutrient management option effective for long-term eutrophication control. Climatic changes increase variability in freshwater discharge with more severe storms and intense droughts and interact closely with nutrient inputs to modulate the magnitude and relative proportions of N and P loading. The effects of these interactions on phytoplankton production and composition were examined in two neighboring North Carolina lagoonal estuaries, the New River and Neuse River Estuaries, which are experiencing concurrent eutrophication and climatically driven hydrologic variability. Efforts aimed at stemming estuarine and coastal eutrophication in these and other similarly impacted estuarine systems should focus on establishing N and P input thresholds that take into account effects of hydrologic variability, so that eutrophication and harmful algal blooms can be controlled over a range of current and predicted climate change scenarios.     

The disruption and recovery of fish communities in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida, following two hurricanes in 2004

During the summer of 2004, four hurricanes (Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne) affected Florida between August 13 and September 27. Two storms (Frances: category 2 and Jeanne: category 3) made landfall in the southern portion of the Indian River Lagoon (IRL) on the east-central coast of Florida. The presence of Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission's long-term fisheries monitoring program in the IRL provided a unique opportunity to examine the effects of large tropical events on estuarine fish communities. Increased sampling efforts to monitor the effects of tropical disturbances on the fish community within the IRL and one of its major tributaries (St. Sebastian River) were initiated within days after the passing of the last hurricane (Jeanne). The objectives of the study were to characterize changes to the composition of the fish community within the lagoon and river immediately after the passage of two hurricanes, and to examine the recovery of the fish communities. Analyses indicated that immediately after the last hurricane passed, community diversity within the estuary decreased following these storms due to the absence of many marine species, whereas the fish community within the St. Sebastian River shifted to one containing a greater percentage of freshwater species. Recovery of the community structure to pre-hurricane conditions was evident within several weeks following the last hurricane, and by mid December 2004 (ca. 3 mo after the last storm), there was little difference between the pre-hurricane and post-hurricane fish communities.     

How hurricane attributes determine the extent of environmental effects: Multiple hurricanes and different coastal systems

The most recent spate of hurricanes to strike the United States and Caribbean (1989 to the present) has occurred when many of the affected areas had long-term water quality and biological data collection efforts ongoing, as well as special follow-up studies. These data have allowed researchers to obtain a much clearer picture of how individual characteristics of hurricanes interact with human land use to lead to various types and degrees of environmental effects. Common deleterious water quality effects associated with hurricanes include excessive nutrient loading, algal blooms, elevated biochemical oxygen demand and subsequent hypoxia and anoxia, fish and invertebrate kills, aquatic animal displacements, large scale releases of chemical pollutants and debris from damaged human structures, exacerbated spread of exotic species and pathogens, and pollution of water with fecal microbial pathogens. These and other effects may or may not occur, or occur to varying degrees, depending upon individual hurricane characteristics including category, point of landfall, wind speed, amount of rainfall, and path after landfall. Landfall in a populous area, a post-landfall trajectory upriver toward a headwater region, passage along a floodplain containing pollution sources (such as wastewater treatment plants, concentrated animal feeding operations, and septic systems), and intensity sufficient to damage power generation will all lead to increased environmental damage. We suggest a number of recommendations for post-hurricane water sampling parameters and techniques, and provide several management-oriented recommendations for better coastal and floodplain land use aimed at lessening the water quality effects of hurricanes.     

Hurricanes 2004: An overview of their characteristics and coastal change

Four hurricanes battered the state of Florida during 2004, the most affecting any state since Texas endured four in 1884. Each of the storms changed the coast differently. Average shoreline change within the right front quadrant of hurricane force winds varied from 1 m of shoreline advance to 20 m of retreat, whereas average sand volume change varied from 11 to 66 m³ m⁻¹ of net loss (erosion). These changes did not scale simply with hurricane intensity as described by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. The strongest storm of the season, category 4 Hurricane Charley, had the least shoreline retreat. This was likely because of other factors like the storm's rapid forward speed and small size that generated a lower storm surge than expected. Two of the storms, Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne, affected nearly the same area on the Florida east coast just 3 wk apart. The first storm, Frances, although weaker than the second, caused greater shoreline retreat and sand volume erosion. As a consequence, Hurricane Frances may have stripped away protective beach and exposed dunes to direct wave attack during Jeanne, although there was significant dune erosion during both storms. The maximum shoreline change for all four hurricanes occurred during Ivan on the coasts of eastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. The net volume change across a barrier island within the Ivan impact zone approached zero because of massive overwash that approximately balanced erosion of the beach. These data from the 2004 hurricane season will prove useful in developing new ways to scale and predict coastal-change effects during hurricanes.     

Estuarine Phytoplankton Responses to Hurricanes and Tropical Storms with Different Characteristics (Trajectory,Rainfall, Winds)

We examined the short-term (<1 month post-storm) impact of storms [Tropical Storm (TS) Helene in 2000, Hurricane (H) Isabel in 2003, H Alex, Tropical Depression (TD) Bonnie and TS Charley in 2004] varying in their trajectory, wind and rainfall characteristics, on water column structure, nutrients, and phytoplankton biomass in North Carolina’s Neuse R. Estuary (NRE). Data are presented from two sampling programs, ModMon (biweekly) and FerryMon (measurements made every 3 min daily). Helene’s winds mixed the previously stratified water column, delivering sediment-bound nutrients to the euphotic zone, and localized freshwater input from Helene was also evident. Mean chlorophyll a concentrations in the mesohaline portion of the NRE, where N was strongly limiting before the storm (molar DIN:DIP < 1), more than doubled after the storm. Unlike with Helene, the water column was well mixed before passage of Isabel, and nutrient concentrations were high. As a result, minimal impact on phytoplankton biomass was detected despite Isabel’s high winds and significant freshwater input. In fact, conditions became less favorable for phytoplankton growth after the storm. Alex was fast moving and relatively small, but its winds were sufficient to mix the water column. Although data from ModMon suggest that chlorophyll a was only slightly higher after passage of Alex, FerryMon detected an ephemeral bloom that was missed by ModMon. Overall, these results suggest that relatively small tropical storms and hurricanes can lead to significant increases in phytoplankton biomass. However, the phytoplankton response depends on both the characteristics of a particular storm and the physical–chemical conditions of the water column before storm passage. Finally, the ephemeral bloom that developed as a result of Alex, the strong response of phytoplankton in the mesohaline portion of the estuary to nutrient inputs, and their patchiness on several other occasions suggests that storms may create “hot spots” for trophic transfer and biogeochemical dynamics in estuaries. Adaptive sampling is necessary to capture these features and to fully understand the impact of perturbations such as storms on estuarine ecosystem functioning.     

The Growth of Estuarine Resources (Zostera marina, Mercenaria mercenaria, Crassostrea virginica, Argopecten irradians, Cyprinodon variegatus) in Response to Nutrient Loading and Enhanced Suspension Feeding by Adult Shellfish

While many coastal ecosystems previously supported high densities of seagrass and abundant bivalves, the impacts of overfishing, eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, and habitat loss have collectively contributed to the decline of these important resources. Despite improvements in wastewater treatment in some watersheds and subsequent reduced nutrient loading to neighboring estuaries, seagrass and bivalve populations in these locations have generally not recovered. We performed three mesocosm experiments to simultaneously examine the contrasting effects of nutrient loading and historic suspension-feeding bivalve densities on the growth of eelgrass (Zostera marina), juvenile bivalves (northern quahogs, Mercenaria mercenaria; eastern oysters, Crassostrea virginica; and bay scallops, Argopecten irradians), and juvenile planktivorous fish (sheepshead minnow, Cyprinodon variegatus). High nutrient loading rates led to significantly higher phytoplankton (chlorophyll a) levels in all experiments, significantly increased growth of juvenile bivalves relative to controls with lower nutrient loading rates in two experiments, and significantly reduced the growth of eelgrass in one experiment. The filtration provided by adult suspension feeders (M. mercenaria and C. virginica) significantly decreased phytoplankton levels in all experiments, significantly increased light penetration and the growth of eelgrass in one experiment, and significantly decreased the growth of juvenile bivalves and fish in two experiments, all relative to controls with no filtration from adult suspension feeders. These results demonstrate that an appropriate level of nutrient loading can have a positive effect on some estuarine resources and that bivalve filtration can mediate the effects of nutrient loading to the benefit or detriment of different estuarine resources. Future ecosystem-based approaches will need to simultaneously account for anthropogenic nutrient loading and bivalve restoration to successfully manage estuarine resources.     

Water quality and phytoplankton as indicators of hurricane impacts on a large estuarine ecosystem

Three sequential hurricanes in the fall of 1999 provided the impetus for assessing multi-annual effects on water quality and phytoplankton dynamics in southwestern Pamlico Sound, North Carolina. Two and a half years of post-hurricane data were examined for short- and long-term impacts from the storms and >100 year flooding. Salinity decreased dramatically and did not recover until May 2000. Inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were briefly elevated during the flooding, but later returned to background levels. Dissolved organic carbon concentrations declined through the whole study period, but did not appear to peak as was observed in the Neuse River estuary, a key tributary of the Sound. Light attenuation was highest in the fall to spring following the storms and was best correlated with chlorophylla concentrations. Phytoplankton biomass (chla) increased and remained elevated until late spring 2000 when concentrations returned to pre-storm levels and then cycled seasonally. Phytoplankton community composition varied throughout the study, reflecting the complex interaction between physiological optimal and combinations of salinity, residence time, nutrient availability, and possibly grazing activity. Floodwater advection or dilution from upstream maxima may have controlled the spatial heterogeneity in total and group-specific biomass. The storms produced areas of shortterm hypoxia, but hypoxic events continued during the following two summers, correlating strongly with water column stratification. Nitrogen loading to the southwestern sound was inferred from network analysis of previous nitrogen cycling studies in the Neuse River estuary. Based on these analyses, nutrient cycling and removal in the sub-estuaries would be decreased under high flow conditions, confirming observations from other estuaries. The inferred nitrogen load from the flood was 2–3 times the normal loading to the Sound; this estimate was supported by the substantial algal bloom. After 8-mos, the salinity and chla data indicated the Sound had returned to pre-hurricane conditions, yet phytoplankton community compositional changes continued through the multi-year study period. This is an example of long-term aspects of estuarine recovery that should be considered in the context of a predicted 10–40 yr period of elevated tropical storm activity in the western Atlantic Basin.     

Long-Term Trends of Water Quality and Biotic Metrics in Chesapeake Bay: 1986 to 2008

We analyzed trends in a 23-year period of water quality and biotic data for Chesapeake Bay. Indicators were used to detect trends of improving and worsening environmental health in 15 regions and 70 segments of the bay and to assess the estuarine ecosystem’s responses to reduced nutrient loading from point (i.e., sewage treatment facilities) and non-point (e.g., agricultural and urban land use) sources. Despite extensive restoration efforts, ecological health-related water quality (chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen, Secchi depth) and biotic (phytoplankton and benthic indices) metrics evaluated herein have generally shown little improvement (submerged aquatic vegetation was an exception), and water clarity and chlorophyll-a have considerably worsened since 1986. Nutrient and sediment inputs from higher-than-average annual flows after 1992 combined with those from highly developed Coastal Plain areas and compromised ecosystem resiliency are important factors responsible for worsening chlorophyll-a and Secchi depth trends in mesohaline and polyhaline zones from 1986 to 2008.     

Hummocky cross-stratification, tropical hurricanes, and intense winter storms

Most previous workers have inferred a storm origin for hummocky cross-stratification, which typically occurs in shallow-marine deposits. On the modern Earth, the only storms capable of profoundly affecting shallow-marine depositional environments are severe tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and mid-latitude winter wave cyclones (intense winter storms). This paper examines the palaeogeographic distribution (including palaeolatitude and palaeogeographic setting) of 107 occurrences of hummocky cross-stratification, ranging in age from the Proterozoic to Recent. In each of these stratigraphic units, both palaeolatitude and palaeogeography are consistent with a direct storm influence (associated with the passage of hurricanes or winter storms directly over the site of deposition). This palaeogeographic evidence lends support to the inferred storm origin for hummocky cross-stratification; further, the distribution of the structure suggests that most occurrences (73%) were generated by tropical hurricanes, the remaining 27% being generated by intense mid-latitude winter storms. The preferential generation of hummocky cross-stratification by hurricanes is consistent with: (1) the known differences in the nature of the bottom flows generated by the two major storm types, and (2) the inferred nature of the flows which form hummocky cross-stratification. Hurricanes couple less effectively with the water column than do intense winter storms. Due to this ineffective coupling, hurricane-generated bottom flows tend to be oscillatory-or multidirectional-dominant, with only minor unidirectional components of motion. In contrast, intense winter storms generally do couple effectively with the water column, generating bottom flows which possess a dominant or significant unidirectional component. Most previous workers have suggested that hummocky cross-stratification forms under oscillatory- or multidirectional-dominant flow; thus, it is conceptually reasonable that the vast majority of ancient occurrences of hummocky cross-stratification were probably hurricane-generated, as suggested by the aforementioned palaeogeographic distribution. The Proterozoic, Palaeozoic, Neogene, and Quaternary were times when global climate was similar to that of today. The distribution of hummocky cross-stratification deposited during these times suggests that both hurricanes and intense winter storms occupied latitudinal belts during these times which were essentially identical to those occupied by their modern counterparts. The Mesozoic and Palaeogene were non-glacial times when global climate was much warmer than that of today. The distribution of hummocky cross-stratification deposited during this interval suggests that hurricanes occurred more frequently at higher latitudes during non-glacial times than they do at present. The possibility of a broadened hurricane belt during the Mesozoic and Palaeogene is consistent with climatic considerations. A limited number of Mesozoic and Palaeogene rock units containing hummocky cross-stratification were deposited in palaeogeographic settings that preclude a direct hurricane influence; these examples were deposited in the middle latitudes, suggesting that intense winter storms continued to form hummocky cross-stratification in the middle latitudes during these much warmer times. Some previous workers have suggested that tsunamis may be capable of generating hummocky cross-stratification. The palaeogeographic distribution of the structure does not support an origin due to tsunamis. Lacustrine examples of hummocky cross-stratification reported herein are the first known non-marine occurrences; they suggest that storm effects strongly influence the sedimentary record of some lakes.     

The Influence of Storms on Water Quality and Phytoplankton Dynamics in the Tidal James River

Due to the unpredictable nature of intense storms and logistical constraints of sampling during storms, little is known about their immediate and long-term impacts on water quality in adjacent aquatic ecosystems. By combining targeted experiments with routine monitoring, we evaluated immediate impacts of two successive storm events on water quality and phytoplankton community response in the tidal James River and compared these findings to a non-storm year. The James River is a subestuary of the Chesapeake Bay and sampling was conducted before, during, and after Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm (TS) Lee in 2011 and during the same time period (late summer/early fall) in 2012 when there were no storms. We collected and compiled data on nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations, phytoplankton abundance, nitrogen uptake, primary productivity rates, and surface salinity, temperature, and turbidity in the meso- and polyhaline segments of the James River. Hurricane Irene introduced significant amounts of freshwater over the entire James River and Chesapeake Bay watersheds, while rainfall from TS Lee fell primarily on the tidal fresh region of the James River and headwaters of the Chesapeake Bay. Dinoflagellates dominated the algal community in the meso- and polyhaline segments prior to the storms in 2011, and a mixed diatom community emerged after the storms. In the mesohaline river segment, cyanobacteria abundance increased after TS Lee when salinities were depressed, likely due to washout from the oligohaline and tidal fresh regions of the river. In 2012, dinoflagellates dominated the community in both segments of the river during late summer but diatoms were also abundant and their biomass fluctuated throughout the summer and fall. Cyanobacteria were not present in either segment. Overall, we observed that the high-intensity rainfall from Hurricane Irene combined with high flushing in the headwaters as a result of TS Lee likely reduced primary productivity and altered community composition in the mesohaline segment but not the more estuarine-influenced polyhaline segment. Understanding the influence of high freshwater flow with a short residence time associated with storms is key to the planning and management of estuarine restoration as such disturbances are projected to increase as a result of climate change.     

Conservative mixing of stable isotopes across estuarine salinity gradients: A conceptual framework for monitoring watershed influences on downstream fisheries production

Strong changes in stable isotope tracers commonly occur across estuarine salinity gradients from freshwater to the sea. The tracer gradients reflect the different geochemistries and mixing of freshwater and seawater, and these bottom-up geochemical influences are recorded in estuarine food webs in the isotopic compositions of animals. Conservative mixing calculations suggest that watershed-level inputs of freshwater and nutrients should exert strong influences on isotopic values of estuarine consumers, especially consumers such as bivalves that largely depend on phytoplankton production. Deviations from conservative isotope mixing also occur, and the magnitude of these deviations measures the strength of within-estuary organic matter cycling for estuarine food webs, especially inputs of non-phytoplankton foods such as macrophyte detritus and benthic algae. Measuring consumer isotopes across salinity gradients should be a relatively simple way to monitor effects of watershed nutrient loading and hydrologic flushing in supporting estuarine fisheries production.     

Contrasting Growth Patterns of Suspension-Feeding Molluscs (Mercenaria mercenaria, Crassostrea virginica, Argopecten irradians, and Crepidula fornicata) Across a Eutrophication Gradient in the Peconic Estuary, NY, USA

While many coastal ecosystems previously supported dense meadows of seagrass and dense stocks of bivalves, the impacts of overfishing, eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, and habitat loss have contributed to the decline of these important resources. Anthropogenic nutrient loading and subsequent eutrophication has been identified by some researchers as a primary driver of these losses, but others have described potential positive effects of eutrophication on some estuarine resources. The Peconic Estuary, Long Island, NY, USA, offers a naturally occurring nutrient-loading gradient from eutrophic tidal creeks in its western reaches to mesotrophic bays in the eastern region. Over 2 years, we conducted an experiment across this gradient to examine the effects of eutrophication on the growth of estuarine species, including juvenile bivalves (northern quahogs (Mercenaria mercenaria), eastern oysters, (Crassostrea virginica), and bay scallops (Argopecten irradians)) and slipper limpet (Crepidula fornicata). Water quality and phytoplankton community biomass and composition were concurrently monitored at each site, and the effects of these variables on the growth of estuarine species were analyzed with multiple regression model. Eutrophication seemed to impact shellfish through changes in the quality of food and not the quantity since the growth rates of shellfish were more often correlated with densities of specific cell types or quality of seston rather than bulk measures of phytoplankton and organic seston. Northern quahogs and eastern oysters grew maximally within eutrophic locales, and their growth was positively correlated with high densities of autotrophic nanoflagellates and centric diatoms in these regions (p?<?0.001). The growth rates of northern quahogs were also positively correlated with relative water motion, suggesting an important role for tidal currents in delivering seston to suspension feeders. Bay scallops and slipper limpets were negatively impacted by eutrophication, growing at the slowest rate at the most eutrophic sites. Furthermore, bay scallop growth was negatively correlated with densities of dinoflagellates, which were more abundant at the most eutrophic site (p?<?0.001). These results suggest that nutrient loading can have significant but complex effects on suspension-feeding molluscs with select species (e.g., oysters and clams) benefiting from eutrophication and other species performing poorly (e.g., scallops and slipper limpets). Future management approaches that seek to restore bivalve populations will need to account for the differential effects of nutrient loading as managers target species and regions to be restored.     

Storms of tropical origin: a climatology for New York State,USA (1851–2005)

The tropical storm database used in this study was obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Coastal Service Center, using the Historical Hurricane Tracks tool. Queries were used to determine the number of storms of tropical origin that have impacted the State and each of its counties. A total of 76 storms of tropical origin passed over New York State between 1851 and 2005. Of these storms, 14 were classified as hurricanes. The remaining hurricanes passed over New York State as weaker or modified systems—27 tropical storms, 7 tropical depressions, and 28 extratropical storms (ET). Long Island experiences a disproportionate number of hurricanes and tropical storms. The average frequency of hurricanes and storms of tropical origin (all types) is one in every 11 years and one in every 2 years, respectively. September is the month of greatest frequency for storms of tropical origin, although the storms of greatest intensity tend to arrive later in the hurricane season and follow different poleward tracks. While El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles appear to show some influence, the frequency and intensity of storms of tropical origin appear to follow a multidecadal cycle. Storm activity was greatest in both the late 19th and 20th centuries. During periods of increased storm frequency and intensity storms reached New York State at progressively later dates. While the number and timing of storms of tropical origin is likely to increase, this increase appears to be attributed to a multidecadal cycle, as opposed to a trend in global warming.     

Temporal variation of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin

A total of 269 tropical storms and hurricanes originated in the North Atlantic basin from 1960–1989. Of these, 76 made landfall on the continental United states. This study divides the 76 tropical storms into their month of formation. Seasonal shifts in the principal areas of tropical cyclone formation over the Atlantic basin have been recognized for many decades. The results of the study suggest that the early and late season tropical cyclones develop in areas which are first affected by the position of the sun, resulting in an increase in water temperatures. These cyclones normally make landfall along the Gulf Coast and usually are of low intensity. Formation areas shift eastward in mid-summer with a slight increase in intensity. By late August and early September, the formation areas have extended to the Cape Verde Islands. These storms tend to strike the east coast of the US and are normally more intense. By the end of the hurricane season, the primary formation area has shifted back to the Gulf of Mexico, with low intensity storms affecting the Gulf Coast.     

Climatic Influences on Autochthonous and Allochthonous Phytoplankton Blooms in a Subtropical Estuary, St. Lucie Estuary, Florida, USA

The St. Lucie Estuary, located on the southeast coast of Florida, provides an example of a subtropical ecosystem where seasonal changes in temperature are modest, but summer storms alter rainfall regimes and external inputs to the estuary from the watershed and Atlantic Ocean. The focus of this study was the response of the phytoplankton community to spatial and temporal shifts in salinity, nutrient concentration, watershed discharges, and water residence times, within the context of temporal patterns in rainfall. From a temporal perspective, both drought and flood conditions negatively impacted phytoplankton biomass potential. Prolonged drought periods were associated with reduced nutrient loads and phytoplankton inputs from the watershed and increased influence of water exchange with the Atlantic Ocean, all of which restrict biomass potential. Conversely, under flood conditions, nutrient loads were elevated, but high freshwater flushing rates in the estuary diminished water residence times and increase salinity variation, thereby restricting the buildup of phytoplankton biomass. An exception to the latter pattern was a large incursion of a cyanobacteria bloom from Lake Okeechobee via the St. Lucie Canal observed in the summer of 2005. From a spatial perspective, regional differences in water residence times, sources of watershed inputs, and the proximity to the Atlantic Ocean influenced the composition and biomass of the phytoplankton community. Long water residence times in the North Fork region of the St. Lucie Estuary provided an environment conducive to the development of blooms of autochthonous origin. Conversely, shorter residence times in the mid-estuary limit autochthonous increases in biomass, but allochthonous sources of biomass can result in bloom concentrations of phytoplankton.     

Phytoplankton forcing by a record freshwater discharge event into a large lagoonal estuary

We report here the response of the water column and phytoplankton biomass of a large lagoonal estuary to a record freshwater discharge event which followed from extraordinary hurricane activity. In the fall of 1999, three hurricanes passed over eastern North Carolina coast in a 7-wk period: Hurricane Dennis (August 24–September 5), Hurricane Floyd (September 14–17), and Hurricane Irene (October 13–16). The hurricanes delivered record rainfall to the watersheds of the Pamlico Sound, North Carolina, the second largest estuary in North America. Hurricane Floyd was followed by a 500-yr flood that displaced 80% of the volume of the Sound and delivered half the annual nitrogen (N)-nutrient load to this N-limited system.After Hurricane Floyd, buoyancy stratification restricted the mixed layer depth, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) in surface waters increased, and surface chlorophyll biomass increased up to 4-fold. Chlorophyll biomass did not increase to the potential indicated by residual DIN because of light-limitation attributable to suspended particulates, phytoplankton pigments, and colored dissolved organic material (CDOM).The discharge waters created hydrological conditions and supplied materials that we interpret to have both stimulated and restricted phytoplankton blooms. The effects of the discharge event on the hydrology and phytoplankton of the Pamlico Sound persisted about 6 months, after which it returned to its pre-event condition, attesting to the resilience of the system.     

Atmospheric Circulation and Inland Flooding in Twentieth Century North Carolina,USA: Implications for Climate Change Impacts?

Widespread inland floods for 20th century North Carolina, USA were defined from stream flow records as events where flow was more than one standard deviation above the mean annual peak for at least two contiguous drainage basins simultaneously. Thirty-one events were identified. One snowmelt flood was detected. For the others, synoptic causes were identified from precipitation and circulation data. Eight events were directly related to hurricanes. Each required a precursor storm, often another hurricane, to provide sufficient precipitation to overcome the dry soils and low stream flows of the autumnal hurricane season. The decadal frequencies of these floods were poorly correlated with the total number of hurricanes, with no hurricane floods between 1955 and 1999 despite frequent hurricanes. Further, most events involved slow-moving decaying systems, not intense ones. An increase in hurricane intensity, often suggested as a consequence of climate change, may lead to fewer floods. The other floods were produced by either extra-tropical storms or squall lines, and precursor systems were also needed. These floods were common in the first and last three decades of the century, virtually absent in the middle four. This corresponded to a small dip in the total number of cyclones, and to periods of rising temperature statewide. This suggests a future increase in North Carolina floods as global temperatures increase. However, the synoptic causes of the relationship are not clear, and detailed quantitative analyses of recent events are required.     

The effects of transportation network failure on people’s accessibility to hurricane disaster relief goods: a modeling approach and application to a Florida case study

Following the catastrophic and devastating Atlantic Hurricane seasons in 2004 and 2005, there has been increased interest in formulating planning directives and policy aimed at minimizing the societal impacts of future storms. Not all populations will evacuate an area forecast to be affected by a hurricane, so emergency managers must plan for these people who remain behind. Such planning includes making food, water, ice, and other provisions available at strategic locations throughout an affected area. Recent research has tackled problems related to humanitarian and relief goods distribution with respect to hurricanes. Experience shows that the torrential rains and heavy winds associated with hurricanes can severely damage transportation network infrastructure rendering it unusable. Scanning the literature on hurricane disaster relief provision, there are no studies that expressly consider the potential damage that may be caused to a transportation network by strong storms. This paper examines the impacts of simulated network failures on hurricane disaster relief planning strategies, using a smaller Florida City as an example. A relief distribution protocol is assumed where goods distribution points are set up in pre-determined locations following the passage of a storm. Simulation results reveal that modest disruptions to the transportation network produce marked changes in the number and spatial configuration of relief facilities. At the same time, the transportation network appears to be robust and is able to support relief service provision even at elevated levels of hypothesized disruption.