Rainfall occurrence and its relation to flood damage in China from 2000 to 2015

China is highly susceptible to flood disasters and subjected to great damage every year. Furthermore, the flood frequency has exhibited an increasing trend in recent years. Most flood events, including flash floods and river flood, are induced by rainfall. This study investigates annual variations of rainfall occurrence over China during the period from 2000 to 2015 at the national and regional scale using daily rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. The Mann-Kendall test is performed for trend detection, and statistical data of flood damage published by China’s government, including destroyed crop area, damaged buildings, direct economic loss, percentage of GDP (gross domestic product), and death toll are correlatively analysed with rainfall occurrences. The results show that storm rain events show the greatest variation among three rainfall types (moderate rain, heavy rain and storm rain). The variation coefficients of rainfall over Northeast China, North China, and Northwest China are the highest, whereas that for Southwest China is the smallest. Moderate rain, heavy rain over Central China, and moderate rain over Southwest China exhibits decreasing trends, whereas the remaining exhibit increasing trends. The correlation between the rainfall occurrences and these flood damage indices at the national scale shows that only direct economic loss has a strong positive correlation with rainfall occurrences, and the other indices have weaker correlations. The correlation is strong in three north regions, except for death toll in Northwest China. In contrast, the correlation between flood damage and rainfall is weak in East China, Central China, Southwest China, and South China. Overall, death toll is strongly correlated with the number of damaged buildings, implying that flood fatalities in China are likely associated with building collapse, and are dominated by specific extreme events. This study can provide a scientific reference for flood management in China.     

台风期间PWV与降雨量的相关性分析

基于2015~2017年台湾地区“苏迪罗”、“鲇鱼”、“海棠”等3次台风事件,利用地基GPS数据反演得到大气可降雨量（PWV）,初步分析台风期间PWV与降雨量的关系,并利用交叉小波和小波相干进一步分析PWV与降雨量的时空变化规律。结果表明,台风发生期间,PWV总体呈先上升后下降的趋势,波动性剧烈;降雨发生时,PWV一定发生剧烈变化;在研究时域内,PWV与降雨量存在很强的正相关关系,相关系数达到0.7,PWV超前降雨量变化,PWV变化后的0~3 h发生强降雨。研究PWV与降雨量的时空变化特征可为短时降雨预报提供参考。     

Probabilistic Properties of a Curve Number:A Case Study for Small Polish and Slovak Carpathian Basins

The proper determination of the curve number(CN) in the SCS-CN method reduces errors in predicting runoff volume. In this paper the variability of CN was studied for 5 Slovak and 5 Polish Carpathian catchments. Empirical curve numbers were applied to the distribution fitting. Next, theoretical characteristics of CN were estimated. For 100-CN the Generalized Extreme Value(GEV) distribution was identified as the best fit in most of the catchments. An assessment of the differences between the characteristics estimated from theoretical distributions and the tabulated values of CN was performed. The comparison between the antecedent runoff conditions(ARC) of Hawkins and Hjelmfelt was also completed. The analysis was done for various magnitudes of rainfall. Confidence intervals(CI) were helpful in this evaluation. The studies revealed discordances between the tabulated and estimated CNs. The tabulated CNs were usually lower than estimated values; therefore, an application of the median value and the probabilistic ARC of Hjelmfelt for wet runoff conditions is advisable. For dry conditions the ARC of Hjelmfelt usually better estimated CN than ARC of Hawkins did, but in several catchments neither the ARC of Hawkins nor Hjelmfelt sufficiently depicted the variability in CN.     

新疆阿克苏河流域降水空间变异特征分析

根据阿克苏河流域降水空间观测数据,其降水稀疏且分布不均匀的特点,选取不同模型对降水空间变化规律进行研究,其结果精确性差异很大。通常应用地统计理论研究降水空间变异性,一般只涉及单个变量,传统的多元回归分析虽然涉及多个变量的影响,但缺乏区域化的空间结构特征。揭示具有协同区域化特征的降水空间变异现象及建立其空间分布模型,既要考虑多元信息的空间位置关系,即同一变量在不同地理位置上的相关性,又要考虑多元信息由于空间重复性引起的协同关系,即同一地理位置上不同变量的相关性。本文用阿克苏河流域范围内的降水观测数据建立析取-协克立格模型,考虑高程变量对降水量空间分布的影响,定量地揭示降水区域化变量的空间变异规律,并将其结果用于降水量的空间最优插值。     

降雨数据空间分辨率在城市流域洪峰变化分析中的影响

在气候变化和城市化背景下,城市暴雨的局部特征愈发明显,而降雨监测和预报数据空间分辨率难以满足空间分布描述要求,造成城市洪涝模拟和预测结果存在不确定性。本文选择深圳市城区的3个流域,基于118场实测降雨数据,通过逐步增大网格尺寸以达到降低降雨空间分辨率的效果,同时以流域边界作为限制,保证流域内面平均雨量不变,然后将不同空间分辨率的降雨数据分别作为城市洪涝模型的输入条件,对流域出口断面的洪水过程进行模拟计算,每场降雨得到6种不同空间分辨率下的洪峰流量。结合降雨中心、流域几何中心等空间特征参数,分析降雨空间分辨率对流域洪峰的影响。研究结果表明,针对118场实测降雨,随着降雨数据空间分辨率逐渐降低,3个流域的出口断面的洪峰变化幅度逐渐增大;如果忽略了流域内部降雨数据的空间分布差异,洪峰变化幅度和方向与降雨中心和流域几何中心的空间关系具有相关性,降雨中心在流域几何中心上游方向的距离越大,洪峰降低的幅度越大。本文基于3个城市流域得到了相似的研究结论,研究方法可为城市流域洪涝模拟提供借鉴,研究结果可为河道洪水风险评价提供参考。     

基于洪峰模数的山洪灾害雨量预警指标研究

山洪灾害预警是防御山洪的重要非工程措施,雨量预警指标是山洪灾害预警的关键。目前的雨量预警指标计算方法对水文气象资料条件以及模型建模率定都有很高的要求,并不适用于基层防汛人员。因此,本文基于全国山洪灾害调查评价成果数据,提出了一种运用洪峰模数计算雨量预警指标的简便、易用的方法。该方法以小流域洪水计算推理公式为基础,将公式中流量与流域面积的比值用洪峰模数表示,得到基于洪峰模数的临界雨量估算公式,并考虑流域土壤含水量等因素,分析临界雨量变化阈值,最终得到雨量预警指标。本文以云南省绥江县双河小流域为例,计算结果显示不同时段（1 h、3 h、6 h）净雨量和预警时段呈线性关系。降雨损失计算中洼地蓄水和植被截留在不同时段相同,土壤下渗在不同的时段不相同。在此基础上,计算不同土壤含水量条件下,不同时段的雨量预警指标。最后,对临界流量、降雨损失和预警指标进行了合理性分析,结果显示预警指标和调查评价结果及实测降雨都比较接近,计算的预警指标合理。本研究为基层山洪灾害预警提供了一种快速、便捷的预警指标计算方法,为预警指标计算提供技术支持。     

Rainfall and Tillage Impacts on Soil Erosion of Sloping Cropland with Subtropical Monsoon Climate- A Case Study in Hilly Purple Soil area,China

Under global warming, storm events tend to intensify, particularly in monsoon-affected regions.As an important agricultural area in China, the purple soil region in the Sichuan Basin, where it has a prevailing monsoon climate, is threatened by serious soil erosion. Tillage operations alter runoff and soil erosion processes on croplands by changing the physical properties of the soil surface. To clarify the relationship between tillage and soil erosion in the purple soil region, three different tillage practices in this region were investigated at the plot scale over 4 years: bare land with minimum tillage(BL),conventional tillage(CT) and seasonal no-tillage ridges(SNTR) which was initially designed to prevent soil erosion by contoured ridges and no-tillage techniques. The results showed that although there were no significant differences in the surface runoff and soil erosion among the three practices, BL causedrelatively high surface runoff and soil erosion,followed by CT and SNTR. Classification and comparison of the rainfall events based on cluster analysis(CA) verified that the surface runoff was not significantly different between most intensive event and long intensive events but was significantly different between most intensive and short and medium-duration events. Only the rainfall events with the highest rainfall intensity could trigger serious soil erosion, up to 1000 kg ha-1 in the region. Further detailed investigations on the effects of tillage operations on the soil erosion in a subtropical region with a monsoon climate are needed to provide a basis for modeling catchments and designing better management practices.     

Response of Soil Moisture to Rainfall Event in Black Locust Plantations at Different Stages of Restoration in Hilly-gully Area of the Loess Plateau,China

Precipitation plays an important role in the water supplies that support ecological restoration by sustaining large-scale artificial plantations in arid and semiarid regions, especially black locust(Robinia pseudoacacia) plantations(RP plantations), which are widely planted due to R. pseudoacacia being an excellent pioneer species. Characterizing the response of soil moisture to rainfall events at different stages of restoration is important for assessing the sustainability of restoration in RP plantations. In this study, we quantified the response of soil moisture to rainfall events at different years of restoration(15, 20 and 30 yr) representing different restoration stages in RP plantations in a typical hilly-gully area, i.e., the Yangjuangou Catchment, of the Loess Plateau, China. Over the growing season(June to September) of 2017, smart probes were placed at nine depths(10, 20, 40, 60, 80, 100, 120, 150, and 180 cm below the soil surface) to obtain volumetric soil water information at 30-min intervals in the three RP plantations. The advance of the wetting front was depicted, and the total cumulative water infiltration was measured. Soil moisture was mainly replenished by eight heavy rainfall events(mean rainfall amount = 46.3 mm), accounting for 88.7% of the rainfall during the growing season. The mean soil moisture content profiles of RP plantations at the three restoration stages were ordered as 30-yr(14.07%) 20-yr(10.12%) 15-yr(8.03%), and this relationship displayed temporal stability. Soil moisture was primarily replenished by rainfall at the 0-60 cm soil depth, and soil moisture remained stable below the 100-cm soil depth. The rainfall regime influenced the advancement of the wetting front. Here, a single rainfall event of 30 mm was the rainfall threshold for infiltration into the 60-cm soil layer. The total infiltration time ranged from 310.5-322.0 h, but no significant differences were found among RP plantations at different restoration stages. Young and old RP plantations had more total infiltration(more than 228.2 mm) and deeper infiltration depths(80-100 cm) than middle-aged plantations. The RP plantation at the intermediate restoration stage exhibited minimal total infiltration(174.2 mm) and a shallow infiltration depth(60 cm) due to the soil physical structure of the plot, which may have limited rain infiltration. More stand conditions that may affect infiltration should be considered for priority afforestation areas.     

Effects of normalized difference vegetation index and related wavebands’ characteristics on detecting spatial heterogeneity using variogram-based analysis

Spatial heterogeneity is widely used in diverse applications, such as recognizing ecological process, guiding ecological restoration, managing land use, etc. Many researches have focused on the inherent scale multiplicity of spatial heterogeneity by using various environmental variables. How these variables affect their corresponding spatial heterogeneities, however, have received little attention. In this paper, we examined the effects of characteristics of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and its related bands variable images, namely red and near infrared (NIR), on their corresponding spatial heterogeneity detection based on variogram models. In a coastal wetland region, two groups of study sites with distinct fractal vegetation cover were tested and analyzed. The results show that: 1) in high fractal vegetation cover (H-FVC) area, NDVI and NIR variables display a similar ability in detecting the spatial heterogeneity caused by vegetation growing status structure; 2) in low fractal vegetation cover (L-FVC) area, the NIR and red variables outperform NDVI in the survey of soil spatial heterogeneity; and 3) generally, NIR variable is ubiquitously applicable for vegetation spatial heterogeneity investigation in different fractal vegetation covers. Moreover, as variable selection for remote sensing applications should fully take the characteristics of variables and the study object into account, the proposed variogram analysis method can make the variable selection objectively and scientifically, especially in studies related to spatial heterogeneity using remotely sensed data.     

面向山洪预警的水雨情监测站网布设方法研究

山洪灾害是中国高频发、高死亡率的自然灾害之一。水雨情站网的合理布设及优化,有利于捕获区域暴雨、洪水情势变化的时空异质性,可显著提高中小流域山洪预警的精度,增强山洪灾害防御能力。本文以山洪灾害高发的福建省顺昌县为例,提出了面向山洪预警的水雨情站网布设方法。县内现状雨量和水位站网监测密度分别为37 km²/站和76 km²/站,主要分布在平原主干河流地区,山洪灾害重点防治区内站网布设不足,小流域暴雨山洪监测和预警能力较弱。针对上述问题,综合分析流域降雨时空特征、历史山洪灾害与山洪灾害预警预报需求,对研究区水雨情站网进行了合理性分析和布设研究,建议增设雨量站3座、水位站3座,其中一座水位站同时监测降雨过程,调整后县内雨量站和水位站的监测密度达到34 km²/站和68 km²/站。本文研究对山洪灾害高发区的水雨情站网布设具有参考和指导意义。     

基于DTW与K-means算法的河北场雨及雨型分区特征研究

深入挖掘气象站点的观测降雨数据,研究区域降雨的雨型规律,对于洪涝灾害预警和减灾措施制订有重要意义.本文基于河北省2005-2017年3189个站点逐小时降雨观测数据,进行"场雨"的划定,进而提取历史上各场雨的累积雨量、时长指标.采用数据挖掘技术中的DTW相似性算法进行场雨雨型的自动归类,将场雨分成Ⅰ-Ⅶ共7种雨型,包括...     

利用最小二乘支持向量机的短临降雨预测模型构建

针对传统降雨预测理论错报率高及算法拟合精度低等缺陷,将与降雨过程相关的多种气象参数(温度、相对湿度、露点温度、气压等)及时间参数(年积日和天积时)引入短临降雨预测模型的构建.将新加坡2个GNSS和气象并址的测站(NTUS、SNUS)2010?2012年的气象数据及降雨数据作为样本,研究气象参数与降雨数据的时变特征,结果...     

亚非夏季风降水与热带东风急流的关系

为研究亚非夏季风降水的时空变化特征及其与热带东风急流的相关性,利用1948-2008年61年NCEP／NCAR再分析资料,采用经验正交函数分解和奇异值分解等方法讨论了亚非夏季风降水的变化及其与热带东风急流的关系。结果表明：从包括撒赫勒在内的北非地区到印度西北部、青藏高原南部,直到中国华北东北地区,是亚非夏季降水的最主要的空间分布型式。亚非夏季风降水总体呈现出逐年递减的趋势。多年亚非季风区夏季降水分布与热带东风急流的强度有密切关系,在急流不同部位降水特征不同。亚非夏季风降水与热带东风急流呈显著正相关,二者的分布趋势在极大程度上吻合。     

Interpreting sedimentation dynamics at Longxi catchment in the Three Gorges Area,China, using Cs-137 activity,particle size and rainfall erosivity

Reservoir sedimentation dynamics were interpreted using Cs-137 activity,particle size and rainfall erosivity analysis in conjunction with sediment profile coring.Two sediment cores were retrieved from the Changshou reservoir of Chongqing,which was dammed in 1956 at the outlet of Longxi catchment in the Three Gorges Area using a gravity corer equipped with an acrylic tube with an inner diameter of 6 cm.The extracted cores were sectioned at 2 cm intervals.All sediment core samples were dried,sieved(2 mm) and weighed.137 Cs activity was measured by γ-ray spectrometry.The particle size of the core samples was measured using laser particlesize granulometry.Rainfall erosivity was calculated using daily rainfall data from meteorological records and information on soil conservation history was collated to help interpret temporal sedimentation trends.The peak fallout of 137 Cs in 1963 appeared at a depth of 84 cm in core A and 56 cm in core B.The peaks of sand contents were related to the peaks of rainfall erosivity which were recorded in 1982,1989,1998 and 2005,respectively.Sedimentation rates were calculated according to the sediment profile chronological controls of 1956,1963,1982,1989,1998 and 2005.The highest sedimentation rate was around 2.0 cm?a~(-1) between 1982 and 1988 when the Chinese national reform and the Household Responsibility System were implemented,leading to accelerated soil erosion in the Longxi catchment.Since 1990 s,andparticularly since 2005,sedimentation rates clearly decreased,since a number of soil conservation programs have been carried out in the catchment.The combined use of 137 Cs chronology,particle size and rainfall erosivity provided a simple basis for reconstructing reservoir sedimentation dynamics in the context of both physical processes and soil restoration.Its advantages include avoiding the need for full blown sediment yield reconstruction and the concomitant consideration of core correlation and corrections for autochthonous inputs and reservoir trap efficiency.     

Comparison of SCS-CN Determination Methodologies in a Heterogeneous Catchment

The aim of this study was to assess the runoff amount from a catchment characterized by diverse land uses by using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number(SCS-CN) method based on Curve Number(CN) defined for dominant homogeneous elementary sub-regions.The calculations employed the SCS-CN method,involving the division of the catchment in two homogeneous parts and determining the runoff amount.The obtained results were compared with the results provided by three other CN determination methods,i.e.the Hawkins function,the kinetics equation,and a complementary error function peak.The catchment is located in a mountain dominated by forest land cover.Empirical CN-Precipitation(CN_(emp)-P) data pairs were analyzed using the mentioned methods,and the highest quality score was achieved from model 1.The results suggest that dividing a catchment into two homogeneous areas and determining their separate CN parameters,used later on to calculate the runoff by means of the presented approach,could be an alternative to the standard methods.The described method is relatively easy,and as it does not require an adoption of numerous parameters,and it can be employed for designing hydraulic facilities.     

连续台风时期香港区域的水汽变化分析

利用香港卫星定位参考站网GNSS观测数据,提取强热带风暴"塔拉斯"与热带风暴"洛克"影响期间各测站天顶方向对流层延迟,反演香港区域大气可降水量;根据香港区域49个天文台气象站提供的实测降雨量数据,分析大气可降水量与实际降雨量的相关性,以及两次台风对香港区域水汽时空分布的不同影响。结果表明,大气可降水量在台风影响前期均上升,在大量降雨后回落,但在连续台风的间歇期间,仍高于台风来临前的水平;水汽累积是大量降雨的前提条件,当水汽累积量相近时,水汽累积时长与累积降雨量呈正相关;台风期间大气可降水量值超过65 mm的区域面积与台风等级相关,台风路径对局部水汽分布有一定的影响。     

我国不同历时年最大降雨量的随机性及空间差异性

极端降水极易引发山洪和城市内涝等水灾害,给生态环境安全、社会经济发展、人民生命财产安全等带来极大损失,认识其（尤其是短历时）空间分布差异对洪涝灾害防治等具有重要意义。本文利用60 min、6 h和24 h共3种历时的年最大降雨量的统计特征参数,生成服从皮尔逊-Ⅲ型分布的长序列样本,并选用信息熵指标研究其随机性及空间分布差异。结果显示：各历时年最大降雨量的随机性均呈现由东南向西北逐渐减小的空间格局,但不同历时降水随机性的空间分布存在差异,主要体现在青藏高原东部、海河流域和淮河流域3个区域。此外,所求年最大降雨量信息熵值主要考虑了其取值的相对离散情况,故该信息熵值与整个序列绝对离散程度（即标准差）的关系不明显,而主要由序列均值处峰值高低的峰度系数决定,二者呈现明显的负相关关系;且由于峰度系数和变差系数的良好相关性也导致了变差系数与信息熵值之间呈现出良好关系。季风、台风、局地天气系统和人类活动等因素综合影响,决定了不同历时极端降水的空间分布格局及其差异。信息熵指标可以很好地反映中国各历时年最大降雨量随机性的空间分布格局,因而结果可为洪涝灾害防治、农业规划布局、生态环境规划保护等提供科学依据。     

面向稀疏散布数据集的时空Kriging优化

时空Kriging法通过将变异函数向时空域进行扩展得到时空变异函数,有效地利用时空邻近的采样点综合进行插值,由于时空稀疏散布数据集具有单一时刻下样本点数量少以及时空分布不规律的特点,难以满足使用时空Kriging插值法的基本条件,导致插值精度不高,据此本文提出了优化方法：通过多时段叠置拟合空间变异函数的方法,综合利用时空邻域内的采样点以解决单一时刻下空间邻域内数量不足情况;控制时间变异对空间变异函数拟合的误差影响;采用积合式模型构建时空变异函数进行插值。最后使用Argo海温数据进行插值实验,在相同条件下与时空Kriging法以及时空权重法的交叉验证结果对比得出,该方法在保证拟合所需采样点数量要求的同时,有效削减了一般时空Kriging法中时间变异对空间变异函数拟合结果的干扰,插值结果的绝对误差均值从0.5降低至0.2以内,稳定性进一步增强,改善了时空Kriging法在稀疏散布数据条件下精度上的不足。     

Estimation of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides in the Sierra Madre Oriental,northeastern Mexico

Landslides induced by prolonged rainfalls are frequent mass movements along the northeastern portion of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico, causing significant damage to infrastructure. In this work, we have studied the connection between rainfall and landslides in the Santa Rosa Canyon, a catchment located in the northeastern Mexico. A landslide database triggered by major storms and hurricanes that have hit the region over the past 30 years was analyzed. A total of 92 rainfall events in the Santa Rosa Canyon were studied to determine the amount of precipitation needed to trigger shallow landslides. For each event the duration(D, in hours) and the cumulated rainfall event(E, in mm) were determined by using historical rainfall data from weather stations located near the study area. We have proposed an ED threshold for rainfall-induced landslides with durations 0.5 D 120 hours to address the conditions that trigger these events in the study area. On analyzing the obtained threshold, it has been established that almost 60 mm of a daily rainfall accumulation is required to trigger shallow landslides in the study area. This estimation is consistent with other calculations made for areas close to the Santa Rosa Canyon. Finally, we validated the predictive capability of the threshold with a different set of rainfall data that did not result in landslides performing a straightforward receiver operating characteristic analysis. A good approach was obtained, especially for rainfall events with daily measurements. Results could be used as input information in the design of a landslide early warning system for the northeastern Mexico, and replicated for other landslide prone areas in the region.     

Deep profile soil moisture distribution characteristics for different microtopographies on the semi-arid Loess Plateau,China

Soil moisture is a limiting factor for vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau, China. Micro-topography may cause heterogeneities in the distribution of soil moisture, but little is known about its effect on deep soil moisture. Our study aims to explore the distribution and impact of soil moisture within the upper 10 m of soil for different microtopographies. Taking undisturbed slope as the control, five micro-topographies were selected. Soil moisture over a depth of 0-10 m from 2017 to 2019 was investigated, and soil particle size and soil organic matter were measured. Variance analysis and multiple comparisons were used to analyze the difference in soil moisture for different microtopographies and multiple-linear regression was used to analyze the influence of micro-topography on soil moisture. There are significant differences in soil moisture within the different layers underlying the examined micro-topographies, while the inter-annual variation in soil water storage for the selected microtopographies increase with increased rainfall. The depth of influence of micro-topographic vegetation on soil moisture exceeded 1000 cm for a gully(GU), 740 cm for a sink hole(SH), 480 cm for a scarp(SC), 360 cm for an ephemeral gully(EG) and 220 cm for a platform(PL). Micro-topography will cause the heterogeneous distribution of soil moisture in the shallower layers, which changes the vegetation distribution differences between micro-topographies. This may be the survival strategy of herbaceous vegetation in response to climate change in the Loess Plateau. For future vegetation restoration efforts, we need to pay attention to the influence of microtopography on soil moisture.