Remote Sensing-based Spatiotemporal Distribution of Grassland Aboveground Biomass and Its Response to Climate Change in the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region

The grassland in the Hindu Kush Himalayan(HKH) region is one of the large st and most biodiverse mountain grassland types in the world,and its ecosystem service functions have profound impacts on the sustainable development of the HKH region.Monitoring the spatiotemporal distribution of grassland aboveground biomass(AGB) accurately and quantifying its response to climate change are indispensable sources of information for sustainably managing grassland ecosystems in the HKH region.In this study,...     

Glacier Variation in Response to Climate Change in Chinese Tianshan Mountains from 1989 to 2012

Based on the 1990, 2000 and 2011 Landsat TM/ETM+ remote sensing data, glacier information of three periods in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains were extracted by using ratio threshold method(TM3/TM5) and visual interpretation, combined with digital processing of satellite images and analysis in GIS. The climate data in the surrounding area were analyzed by using linear regression, Mann-Kendall abrupt test, and Morlet wavelet analysis. Study results showed that: over the 23 years investigation, the glacier areas have markedly decreased. In the last 12 years(2000 to 2011), the rate of retreat has begun to accelerate. The most dramatic glacier shrinkage occurred in the central region, the lowest in the eastern region. The mean summer temperature and warm precipitation in Chinese Tianshan Mountains had an increasing trend, with rates of 0.22°C /10 a and 5.1mm/10 a from 1960 to 2011, respectively. Mean summer temperature have experienced a strong increase in 1998. The analysis of the results showed that the rise of mean summer temperature was the main factor that contributed to glacier shrinkage. Regional differences of glacier area changes were investigated by analyzing glacier behavior in five study sub-regions; regional differences are related to local climate, to the relative proportion of glaciers in different size classes, altitudinal and aspect distribution of glaciated areas. In addition, the lag theory indicated that glaciers may accelerate the retreat in the next decade, considering climate trends recognized for the period 2000-2011.     

青藏高原兹格塘错流域50年来湖泊水量对气候变化响应的模拟研究

运用数值模拟建立青藏高原兹格塘错流域土壤、植被、气候等的空间和属性数据库;接着,借助分布式流域尺度水文模型(SWAT模型),对兹格塘错1956—2006年间的流量进行模拟实验;最后,反演50年来兹格塘错流域水文过程,测试流域温度、降水和蒸发组合的敏感因子对湖泊水量变化的效应,探讨50年来湖泊水量对气候变化的响应。模拟实验的边界条件设置为自然地形、土壤、植被覆盖,其中土壤资料包括有机质含量、粒径等理化参数。模拟结果表明:兹格塘错的年平均流量为6.3m3/s,流量高峰集中在8月至10月,并且由于融雪补给的关系,3月出现另一个流量高峰;模拟结果与遥感解译所得到的结果吻合较好。敏感实验表明:兹格塘错流域内温度、降水和蒸发组合的敏感因子实验具有高原特征,即高原湖泊的水文过程和湖泊流量变化有着较为敏感的响应关系;兹格塘错流量受降水的影响最大,随着降水的增加,流量有所增加;在温度升高的情况下,流域蒸发量增加速度大,兹格塘错流量增加的效应不明显,而在冷湿模式下,流域蒸发量降低,兹格塘错流量增加显著。     

Response of Lakes to Climate Change in Xainza Basin Tibetan Plateau Using Multi-Mission Satellite Data from 1976 to 2008

Changes in the lake areas of Xainza basin in the past 33 years(1976 to 2008) were studied using Landsat data from Multispectral Scanners(1973-1977), Thematic Mapper(1989-1992, 2007-2009), and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus(1999-2002). The results indicated that lakes in the study area evidently expanded from 1976 to 2008, with total expansion of 1512.64 km2. The mean annual air temperature presented an upward trend with certain fluctuations from 1966 to 2008. The air temperature rise rates in the cold season(0.31°C/10a) were higher than those in the hot season(0.24°C/10a), in the Xainza station example. Precipitation exhibited evident seasonal differences. Mean annual precipitation in hot season is 281.48 mm and cold season is 32.66 mm from 1966 to 2008 in study area. Precipitation in the hot season was the major contributor to the increase in annual precipitation. Grey relational analysis(GRA) was used to study the response of lake areas to climatic factors. The mean air temperature and precipitation were selected as compared series, and the lake areas were regarded asthe reference series. The grey relational grade(GRG) between compared series and reference series were calculated through GRA. The results indicated that changes in lake areas were mainly affected by climatic factors in the hot season. Lakes in this region were classified into three grades, namely, Grades I, II, and III according to the recharge source and elevation. The GRGs of each series varied for different grade lakes: the area of Grade III lakes were the most relevant to the hot season factors, the GRGs of precipitation and air temperature were 0.7570 and 0.6606; followed by the Grade II lakes; Grade I lakes were more sensitive to the air temperature.     

Response of the North Pacific Oscillation to global warming in the models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report

Based on 22 of the climate models from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we investigate the ability of the models to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the wintertime North Pacific Oscillation(NPO), which is the second most important factor determining the wintertime sea level pressure field in simulations of the pre-industrial control climate, and evaluate the NPO response to the future most reasonable global warming scenario(the A1B scenario). We reveal that while most models simulate the geographic distribution and amplitude of the NPO pattern satisfactorily, only 13 models capture both features well. However, the temporal variability of the simulated NPO could not be significantly correlated with the observations. Further analysis indicates the weakened NPO intensity for a scenario of strong global warming is attributable to the reduced lower-tropospheric baroclinicity at mid-latitudes, which is anticipated to disrupt large-scale and low-frequency atmospheric variability, resulting in the diminished transfer of energy to the NPO, together with its northward shift.     

基于RS/GIS和AHP-GPCA模型的青藏高原生态环境变迁综合评价

运用层次分析和全局主成分分析结合的综合统计评价模型(AHP-GPCA模型),以县域和流域为评价单元,以气温、降水、归一化差异植被指数(NDVI)、冰川密度、湿地密度、湖泊率、人口密度、荒漠化率等数据为评价指标基础,基于GS/GIS对20世纪70年代末期至2000年青藏高原生态环境变迁进行综合评价,并探讨了研究区生态环境...     

Drought Forecasting in a Semi-arid Watershed Using Climate Signals:a Neuro-fuzzy Modeling Approach

Large-scale annual climate indices were used to forecast annual drought conditions in the Maharlu-Bakhtegan watershed,located in Iran,using a neuro-fuzzy model.The Standardized Precipitation Index（SPI） was used as a proxy for drought conditions.Among the 45 climate indices considered,eight identified as most relevant were the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation（AMO）,Atlantic Meridional Mode（AMM）,the Bivariate ENSO Time series（BEST）,the East Central Tropical Pacific Surface Temperature（NINO 3.4）,the Central Tropical Pacific Surface Temperature（NINO 4）,the North Tropical Atlantic Index（NTA）,the Southern Oscillation Index（SOI）,and the Tropical Northern Atlantic Index（TNA）.These indices accounted for 81% of the variance in the Principal Components Analysis（PCA） method.The Atlantic surface temperature（SST：Atlantic） had an inverse relationship with SPI,and the AMM index had the highest correlation.Drought forecasts of neuro-fuzzy model demonstrate better prediction at a two-year lag compared to a stepwise regression model.     

黄河三角洲人类干扰活动强度变化及其景观格局响应

本研究以湿地变化较为剧烈的黄河三角洲为研究对象,基于RS技术和GIS空间分析方法,利用人为干扰度模型,结合区域人工沟渠建设情况,从区域和局地两个尺度直观揭示人类干扰强度时空分异特征,并探究区域景观格局对人类干扰活动的响应,以期为黄河三角洲滨海湿地生态保护与人类活动调控提供决策支持。结果表明：① 1995-2015年现代黄河三角洲区域人为干扰度和人工沟渠密度均明显增加,空间分布呈现从西南部向东部、北部,自内陆向沿海的扩展趋势;② 随着人类活动强度增强,研究区自然湿地面积减少,区域景观多样性和空间异质性增加,景观整体连通性减弱,景观复杂性降低;③ 景观格局对人类干扰强度变化的响应关系呈现出地区和时间差异;人类干扰活动强度相对较低的保护区受人工沟渠建设的影响,也呈现出斑块团聚程度降低、景观多样性增加和景观复杂性降低的变化趋势;④ 人为干扰度指数和人工沟渠密度指标互为补充,互相印证,可以较为全面、客观地反映黄河三角洲地区人类干扰活动强度。     

Spatial Pattern of Cotton Yield Variability and Its Response to Climate Change in Cotton Belt of Pakistan

Cotton is a revenue source for cotton-producing countries; as the second-largest crop in Pakistan, it significantly contributes to its economy. Over the past few decades, cotton productivity has become unstable in Pakistan, and climate change is one of the main factors that impact cotton yield. Due to climate change, it becomes very important to understand the change trend and its impact on cotton yield at the regional level. Here, we investigate the relationship of standardized cotton yield var...     

Assessing the Dynamics of Grassland Net Primary Productivity in Response to Climate Change at the Global Scale

Understanding the net primary productivity(NPP) of grassland is crucial to evaluate the terrestrial carbon cycle. In this study, we investigated the spatial distribution and the area of global grassland across the globe. Then, we used the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach(CASA) model to estimate global grassland NPP and explore the spatio-temporal variations of grassland NPP in response to climate change from 1982 to 2008. Results showed that the largest area of grassland distribution during the study period was in Asia(1737.23 × 104 km~2), while the grassland area in Europe was relatively small(202.83 × 10~4 km~2). Temporally, the total NPP increased with fluctuations from 1982 to 2008, with an annual increase rate of 0.03 Pg C/yr. The total NPP experienced a significant increasing trend from 1982 to 1995, while a decreasing trend was observed from 1996 to 2008. Spatially, the grassland NPP in South America and Africa were higher than the other regions, largely as a result of these regions are under warm and wet climatic conditions. The highest mean NPP was recorded for savannas(560.10 g C/(m~2·yr)), whereas the lowest was observed in open shrublands with an average NPP of 162.53 g C/(m~2·yr). The relationship between grassland NPP and annual mean temperature and annual precipitation(AMT, AP, respectively) varies with changes in AP, which indicates that, grassland NPP is more sensitive to precipitation than temperature.     

2002-2012年青藏高原积雪物候变化及其对气候的响应

积雪是地表最活跃的自然要素之一,其动态变化对气候、环境以及人类生活都产生了重要影响。本文利用MODIS积雪产品和IMS雪冰产品,首先通过Terra、Aqua双星合成和临近日合成去除MODIS积雪产品中的部分云像元,再与IMS融合,获取了青藏高原2002-2012年逐日无云积雪覆盖产品,并逐像元计算每个水文年的积雪覆盖日数（SCD）、积雪开始期（SCS）和积雪结束期（SCE）,分析了不同生态分区积雪的时空变化特征,以及积雪开始期和结束期与温度、降水的关系。结果表明：青藏高原积雪分布存在明显的空间差异,南部喜马拉雅山脉和念青唐古拉山地区以及西部帕米尔高原和喀喇昆仑山脉为SCD的2个高值区,年均积雪日数在200 d以上。18.1%的区域SCS表现出明显的提前趋势,主要集中在青藏高原中东部;羌塘高原南部、念青唐古拉山西段以及川西地区有显著推迟趋势,占高原面积的8.5%。23.2%的区域SCE显著推迟,主要集中在果洛那曲高寒区、昆仑山区和念青唐古拉山地区;而仅有6.9%的区域表现出提前趋势,主要分布在高原西南部。总体上,不同生态单元内积雪开始与结束期受温度、降水的影响差异很大,表现出不同的空间格局与演变趋势。     

Response of Vegetation Cover Change to Drought at Different Time-scales in the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Region,China

Dominated by an arid and semiarid continental climate, the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Region(BTSSR) is a typical ecologically fragile region with frequently occurring droughts. To provide information for regional vegetation protection and drought prevention, we assessed the relations between vegetation cover change(measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI) at different time-scales, in different growth stag...     

Sustainability Assessment and Ranking of Run of the River(RoR) Hydropower Projects Using Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP):A Study from Western Himalayan Region of India

In the present scenario,tapping the unutilised hydropower potential is one of the highest priorities in developing countries of the world.Special emphasis is being imparted to run of the river(RoR)mode of power generation.However,the governments are now facing the dilemma whether to promote small hydropower projects(SHPs) or encourage large hydropower projects(LHPs).RoR large hydropower projects result into large scale cutting of mountains for constructing tunnels and access roads,generation of huge quantity of muck and large scale impact on flora and fauna due to diversion of rivers/streams.On the other hand,though SHPs are claimed to be greener and more sustainable by a section of researchers and energy planners but,they will be required to be set up in large number to generate equivalent amount of electricity.The aim of this study is to rank the most sustainable installed capacity range of RoR hydropower projects.To achieve this aim,the study proposes the use of quite popular multi-criteria decision making(MCDM)method of Operation Research named Analytical Hierarchy Process.A case study has been presented from Himachal Pradesh,a hydro rich state located in the western Himalayan region.As per sustainability assessment carried out in this study,hydropower projects in the capacity range 1 to 5 MW have been ranked to be the most sustainable.     

2000-2010年新疆陆地生态系统变化格局与分析

本文以Landsat TM/ETM+数据和HJ-1卫星CCD数据,系统分析了2000-2010年新疆地区陆地生态系统变化。10年间,新疆地区建设用地、农田和湿地生态系统迅速扩张,分别增加了30.5%、26.7%和10.2%;草地与灌丛生态系统则大量减少,分别减少了2.4%和5.1%;冰川积雪减少也较为明显,减少了1.6%;荒漠和森林生态系统变化较小。生态系统变化热点区域主要分布在传统绿洲区,尤其是天山南北麓的绿洲区。水利设施改善与灌溉节水技术进步,以及国家西部开发战略导致灌草地被大量开垦为农田,人口增长则是建设用地增加的主因;全球气候变暖使冰川积雪减少明显,20世纪60年代至今面积减少了16.7%~32.5%,导致山区湿地生态系统增加;国家生态环境保护工程则有效地遏制了林地与荒漠生态系统的恶化趋势。山地水源涵养区除了要严格控制森林砍伐外,还要严格禁止灌草的开垦,控制绿洲农田的增加和重视生态过渡带的保护,并加强全球气候变化对新疆水资源影响的研究,以制定相关对策。     

基于贝叶斯逻辑回归模型研究百度街景图像微观建成环境因素对街面犯罪的影响

街面犯罪对公众的生活安全构成一定的威胁。以往对于公共盗窃和寻衅滋事等街面犯罪的研究往往停留在社区甚至更宏观的层面,难以向微观尺度深入,它们忽略了通过环境设计预防犯罪(Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design,CPTED)理论中所主张的地址级的建成环境的精确特征。地址级的微观建成环境被广泛认为对各类犯罪的发生有着直接或间接的影响,然而对微观建成环境的度量一直是一个挑战。先前的大多数研究都是通过调查样本来表征建成环境,会受到两方面的限制:(1)建成环境特征描述不完整的限制;(2)数据在空间覆盖方面具有稀疏性的限制。百度街景图像作为一个新的数据来源,可以被用来提取地址级的微型环境的建成特征,从而使犯罪研究可以聚焦在更微观的尺度中。本研究使用深度学习全卷积图像分割算法从百度街景图像中提取地理位置的环境变量,共选取树木、通车道路、人行道等8种变量来表现研究区微观建成环境的差异。在控制了与街面犯罪有关的其他因素后,采用贝叶斯逻辑回归模型来评估微观建成环境影响因素对公共盗窃和寻衅滋事案件的影响。结果表明加入了微观建成环境物理特征之后的模型表现更好。对...     

利用贝叶斯时空模型分析山东省手足口病时空变化及影响因素

手足口病是一种常见的传染病,多见于5岁以下儿童。近年来,中国手足口病发病人数逐年上升,疾病疫情也越来越受到公共卫生部门与社会大众的关注。虽然已有不少手足口病相关的研究,但对其时空变化及影响因素驱动效应的研究仍然较少。本文采用贝叶斯时空模型,对2008年山东省手足口病高发时间段（5-8月）的发病时空演变特征进行系统分析,并探究影响手足口病发病风险的气象因素。结果表明：① 空间上不同区县的手足口病发病风险存在一定差异,且区县间的发病风险随时间变化趋势也各不相同;② 5月和6月手足口病发病风险明显高于整个研究阶段（5-8月）平均发病风险;③ 对手足口病发病风险影响较大的气象因素依次是：周平均温度、平均风速和平均气压。本文针对山东省手足口病时空演化特征及气象影响因素的研究,能为高发时间段内手足口病的区域化防控提供科学依据。     

Approach to quantification drawdown of groundwater wells:a case study from Sana'a City,Yemen

Although research on a field investigation about quantification drawdown of ground water wells has hitherto been conducted with emphasis on Sanaa basin which is 3 200 km2 in area characterized by general hazard in quantity and quality of water,there exist uncertainties about the size of the hazardous annual decline in the level of underground water.So the authors are trying to assess reliable hazard data on the depth of ground-water which were obtained by measuring static water level.The data set are twenty six wells from 9 regions which were selected to represent Sanaa basin and collected during the course of the 20 months groundwater monitoring survey from January 2008 to January 2009.The results show that the average drawdown during 20 months to be 3.22 m with an average 0.16 m per month and 2 m per year.     

Response of Terrigenous Sediment Input to Sea Level Change and East Asian Monsoon Evolution Since 30kyr in the Southwestern Taiwan Basin

The compositions of grain size, clay minerals, and geochemical elements in core sediments(TS4) from the southwestern Taiwan Basin(South China Sea) were investigated to assess the response of terrigenous sediment input to sea level change and the East Asian monsoon evolution since 30 kyr. The chronology was discussed based on foraminiferal AMS14 C dates. Our results indicated that rivers in Taiwan have been the major sediment contributors since 30 kyr, followed by the Pearl River; and Luzon Island contribute little sediments to the southwestern Taiwan Basin. In this study, we reconstructed the variations in terrigenous sediment input by using the proxies such as Al2 O3(%), F1 score, and TiO_2/CaO. The F1 score can be used to indicate the flux of terrigenous sediments. The contribution of Taiwanese rivers and the Pearl River were evaluated by using the value of(illite + chlorite)/kaolinite. The variations of Al_2 O_3(%), F1 score, and TiO_2/CaO values along the core were clearly correlated to the evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon since 30 kyr. Based on these records, we recognized three evolutionary stages of terrigenous sediment input in the southwestern Taiwan Basin. During stage Ⅰ(29 – 24 kyr), the input of terrigenous sediments continued to increase. During stage Ⅱ(24 – 11.5 kyr), the sediment input decreased at first and then increased, with the lowest value during the last glacial period(21 – 17 kyr). Terrigenous sediment input during stage Ⅲ(11.5 kyr –) showed the decreasing first and then increasing trends, generally higher than those in the first and second stages. The variations of terrigenous sediment input in the study area corresponded well with the evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon since 30 kyr. Increased terrigenous sediment input during 4 – 1.8 kyr was suggested to be caused by the enhanced ENSO activity. Sea level change does not alter the overall trend of terrigenous sediment input, but does change the relative contributions of rivers in Taiwan and the Pearl River.     

Risk Assessment of Disaster Chain: Experience from Wenchuan Earthquake-induced Landslides in China

This paper deals with the formative process of the Wenchuan earthquake disaster chain risk. Selected earthquake-landslides chain risk is critically evaluated by the probability of landslide displacement failure based on the Newmark's permanent-deformation model. In this context, a conceptual model of regional disaster chain risk assessment was proposed, in which the hazardformative environments sensitivity was the core factor as well as the main difference compared with single disaster risk assessment. The disaster chain risk is accumulation of primary disaster risk and the secondary disasters risks. Results derived from the Wenchuan case proved that the conceptual model was suitable for the disaster chain risk assessment, especially the sudden disaster chain. This experience would offer greater potential in application of conceptual model of disaster chain risk assessment, in the process of large-scale disaster risk governance.