城市暴雨内涝模拟模型优化与精度验证

本文采用“Vegetation-Impervious Surface-Soil”模型和线性光谱混合分解方法,获取像元中不透水面、植被、土壤覆盖信息,用于计算SCS模型产流参数综合CN（Curve Number）值;基于土地利用类型,采用经验值与数值实验逐步求精相结合的方法,确定水动力汇流模型参数曼宁系数,并用实测积水数据验证两次参数修正的模拟效果。以上海中心城区为例进行验证,研究结果表明：①将采用V-I-S模型得到的不透水面、植被、土壤信息设定CN值,能够降低积水分布的极值化现象,提高SCS产流模型产流量和产流分布精度;②采用经验法和数值模拟逐步求精法,按土地利用类型设定曼宁系数,使各时段最大积水深度高于原模型,说明曼宁系数是汇流模型的敏感参数。     

Impact of Rainfall Temporal Heterogeneity on Relationship between Curve Number and Rainfall Depth in the Zagros Mountain Region,Iran

The impact of temporal variation of rainfall on the relationship between rainfall and catchment response is investigated in a catchment with high temporally variable rainfalls and a high percentage of permeable soils in the southwest of Iran.Twenty-nine storm events are classified into two classes, High Temporal heterogeneous(HT) and Low Temporal heterogeneous(LT) events using the variogram technique and the storm events of each class are analyzed to detect the relationship between Curve Number(CN) and rainfall depth. It is found that there is not a similar correlation between CN values and rainfall depths for both temporally variable classes, and hence, two different responses can be observed in the catchment according to rainfall temporal heterogeneities. For HT events, a complacent behavior is detected in which the CNs decline as rainfall depth increases while a different response, violent behavior, is observed for LT events in which the CNs rise and asymptotically approach a constant value with increasing storm size. This considerable difference between CN-P relationships derived from the two temporally variable classes of rainfall is attributed to the provocation of different runoff generation mechanisms, infiltration-excess and saturation-excess caused by rainfall temporal heterogeneities. Moreover, the results support the validity of variogram technique to classify storm events into two LT and HT classes.     

Probabilistic Properties of a Curve Number:A Case Study for Small Polish and Slovak Carpathian Basins

The proper determination of the curve number(CN) in the SCS-CN method reduces errors in predicting runoff volume. In this paper the variability of CN was studied for 5 Slovak and 5 Polish Carpathian catchments. Empirical curve numbers were applied to the distribution fitting. Next, theoretical characteristics of CN were estimated. For 100-CN the Generalized Extreme Value(GEV) distribution was identified as the best fit in most of the catchments. An assessment of the differences between the characteristics estimated from theoretical distributions and the tabulated values of CN was performed. The comparison between the antecedent runoff conditions(ARC) of Hawkins and Hjelmfelt was also completed. The analysis was done for various magnitudes of rainfall. Confidence intervals(CI) were helpful in this evaluation. The studies revealed discordances between the tabulated and estimated CNs. The tabulated CNs were usually lower than estimated values; therefore, an application of the median value and the probabilistic ARC of Hjelmfelt for wet runoff conditions is advisable. For dry conditions the ARC of Hjelmfelt usually better estimated CN than ARC of Hawkins did, but in several catchments neither the ARC of Hawkins nor Hjelmfelt sufficiently depicted the variability in CN.     

Hydrological modelling in the anthroposphere: predicting local runoff in a heavily modified high-alpine catchment

Hydrological models within inflow forecasting systems for high-alpine hydropower reservoirs can provide valuable information as part of a decision support system for the improvement of hydropower production or flood retention. The information, especially concerning runoff, is however rarely available for the calibration of the hydrological models used. Therefore, a method is presented to derive local runoff from secondary information for the calibration of the model parameters of the rainfallrunoff model COSERO. Changes in water levels in reservoirs, reservoir outflows, discharge measurements at water intakes and in transport lines are thereby used to derive the local, “natural” flow for a given sub-catchment. The proposed method is applied within a research study for the ÖBB Infrastructure Railsystem division in the Stubache catchment in the central Austrian Alps. Here, the ÖBB operates the hydropower scheme “Kraftwerksgruppe Stubachtal”, which consists of 7 reservoirs and 4 hydropower stations. The hydrological model has been set up considering this human influences and the high natural heterogeneity in topography and land cover, including glaciers. Overall, the hydrological model performs mostly well for the catchment with highest NSE values of 0.78 for the calibration and 0.79 for the validation period, also considering the use of homogeneous parameter fields and the uncertainty of the derived local discharge values. The derived runoff data proved to be useful information for the model calibration. Further analysis, examining the water balance and its components as well as snow cover, showed satisfactory simulation results. In conclusion, a unique runoff dataset for a small scale high-alpine catchment has been created to establish a hydrological flow prediction model which in a further step can be used for improved and sustainable hydropower management.     

耦合蚁群算法和SCS-CN水文模型的城市不透水面空间格局优化

近年来,中国城市暴雨内涝频繁发生,已经发展成为一类严重的“城市病”。城市不透水面密度及其空间格局是形成暴雨内涝的一个重要影响因素。本文提出一种耦合蚁群算法和SCS-CN水文模型优化不透水面空间格局的方法,从而实现通过增加地面雨水渗透量达到减缓城市内涝发生的目的。首先应用Williams公式计算基于坡度修正的CN值,在此基础上计算地表径流量;然后设定径流系数最小化目标,耦合水文模型和蚁群算法对径流小区尺度的不透水面空间格局进行优化配置;最后应用景观格局指数对不透水面空间格局进行分析。研究结果表明：面对1年、5年、10年、20年、50年以及100年一遇重现期的1 h持续降雨事件,研究区优化后的不透水面空间格局可以分别减少径流系数21.19%、19.58%、19.38%、18.93%、18.41%和17.25%,在一定程度上缓解城市暴雨内涝的发生。在此基础上,提出面向暴雨内涝防治的城市更新优化措施建议：① 通过增加草地、花园、树木等植被绿化减少高不透水面类型的面积,并划分成更多中高不透水面类型的斑块;② 集聚低、中低等不透水面类型,从而加大连通性,形成更多的中高不透水面类型;③ 增加每个径流小区内斑块数量,增大斑块密度,减少其蔓延度和聚集度。     

Hazard assessment of landslide disaster using information value method and analytical hierarchy process in highly tectonic Chamba region in bosom of Himalaya

The present study is focused on a comparative evaluation of landslide disaster using analytical hierarchy process and information value method for hazard assessment in highly tectonic Chamba region in bosom of Himalaya. During study, the information about the causative factors was generated and the landslide hazard zonation maps were delineated using Information Value Method (IV) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) using ArcGIS (ESRI). For this purpose, the study area was selected in a part of Ravi river catchment along one of the landslide prone Chamba to Bharmour road corridor of National Highway (NH-154A) in Himachal Pradesh, India. A numeral landslide triggering geoenvironmental factors i.e. slope, aspect, relative relief, soil, curvature, land use and land cover (LULC), lithology, drainage density, and lineament density were selected for landslide hazard mapping based on landslide inventory. Landslide hazard zonation map was categorized namely “very high hazard, high hazard, medium hazard, low hazard, and very low hazard”. The results from these two methods were validated using Area Under Curve (AUC) plots. It is found that hazard zonation map prepared using information value method and analytical hierarchy process methods possess the prediction rate of 78.87% and 75.42%, respectively. Hence, landslide hazard zonation map obtained using information value method is proposed to be more useful for the study area. These final hazard zonation maps can be used by various stakeholders like engineers and administrators for proper maintenance and smooth traffic flow between Chamba and Bharmour cities, which is the only route connecting these tourist places.     

面向城市平原地区暴雨积涝汇水区分级划分的方法研究

汇水区划分是分布式水文模型计算的基础。针对现有方法使用DEM在平原城市地区划分的汇水区不符合实际地形情况,本文提出了一种面向城市平原地区分级划分汇水区的技术方法。该方法从城市用地分类角度出发将城市分为中心城区和郊区,依据城市排水主干水系进行汇水区一级划分,将影响中心城区和郊区的不同径流因子分别融入DEM中,利用细化的DEM进行二级汇水区划分;在此基础上,根据实际汇流情况,结合Voronoi图,对中心城区进行三级划分,最后通过GIS技术进行修正。该方法既结合了传统DEM生成子流域的算法,又融入了城市区域地物地貌特点,能更好地满足城市地区的需要。选择上海市嘉定区西北部地区为实验样区,利用该方法进行汇水区划分比较表明,其对于城市平原地区具有很好的适用性。     

基于元胞自动机模型的河道汇流过程模拟

对河道汇流过程进行模拟可为洪水灾害预警预报提供参考。利用水力水文学方法能很好地模拟河道汇流过程,但需要输入的参数多,运算过程复杂,对数据精度要求高,而且在无资料区流域无法确定河道上断面流量情况下,该方法具有一定局限性。本文将元胞自动机模型与水文模型相结合,构建了河道汇流过程中的元胞自动机模型和产流汇流规则。通过建立河道坡面拓扑关系,利用SCS-CN（Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number）模型逐个计算河道元胞上的坡面入流,并利用曼宁方程模拟河道汇流过程,最后在ArcEngine平台下进行二次开发,实现了河道汇流可视化。本文以厦门市茂林溪流域为研究区,对1997年5月6日至7日的一场降雨进行了模拟。将本文模拟结果与该流域其他学者的研究进行了对比分析,结果表明在输入数据与水文模型参数相同的情况下,本文不仅模拟出每次降雨间隔产生的较小洪峰,并且整场降雨产生的最大洪峰流量精度与时间精度均提高了5倍,可以更准确地模拟河道汇流过程,适用于河道汇流可视化,该模拟可以为洪水灾害预警预报提供一定参考。     

Hydrological Response to Environment Change in Himalayan Watersheds: Assessment from Integrated Modeling Approach

Land use changes such as deforestation,increase in cropping or grazing areas and built-up land, likely modify the water balance and land surface behavior in the Himalayan watersheds.An integrated approach of hydrological and hydraulic modeling was adopted for comparative analysis of hydrological pattern in three Himalayan watersheds i.e.Khanpur,Rawal and Simly situated in the Northern territory of Pakistan.The rainfall-runoff model SWAT- Soil and water assessment tool and Hydro CAD were calibrated for the selected watersheds.The correlation analysis of the precipitation data of two climate stations i.e.Murree and Islamabad, with the discharge data of three rivers was utilized to select best suitable input precipitation data for Hydro CAD rainfall-runoff modeling.The peak flood hydrograph were generated using Hydro CAD runoff to optimize the basin parameters like CN, runoff volume, peak flows of the three watersheds.The hydrological response of the Rawal watershed was studied as a case study to different scenarios of land use change using SWAT model.The scenario of high deforestation indicated a decline of about 6.3% in the groundwater recharge tostream while increase of 7.1% in the surface runoff has been observed under the scenario of growth in urbanization in the recent decades.The integrated modeling approach proved helpful in investigating the hydrological behavior under changing environment at watershed level in the Himalayan region.     

基于ArcMap的长期水文影响评价模型二次开发

长期水文影响评价模型(Long-term Hydrological Impact Assessment,L-THIA)是研究人类活动对流域非点源影响的重要评价模型之一。本文深入阐明了L-THIA模型的原理,探讨了SCS CN方法和污染物负荷的具体计算方法。在此基础上,提出了L-THIA模型存在的不足和改进方向,并以ArcMap为平台,对该模型进行了二次开发,二次开发后的模型主要包括六个模块,分别为土地利用分类模块、土壤分类模块、CN值计算模块、径流深度计算模块、径流量计算模块和污染物负荷计算模块。基于ArcMap平台的L-THIA模型利于用户方便处理数据,且提高了模型模拟的准确度,实现了模型本地化。     

Modelling the Effects of Land-use Change on Runoff and Sediment Yield in the Weicheng River Watershed,Southwest China

As a major sediment area in the upper Yangtze River, Jialing River basin experienced substantial land-use changes, many water conservancy projects were constructed from the 1980 s onward to promote water and soil conservation. The water and sediment yield at the watershed outlet was strongly affected by these water conservation works, including ponds and reservoirs, which should be considered in the modelling. In this study, based on the observed data of the Weicheng River catchment, the relationships between precipitation, runoff, vegetation, topography and sediment yield were analyzed, a distributed runoff and sediment yield model(WSTD-SED) was developed, and the hydrological processes of different land-use scenarios were simulated by using the model. The main results are summarized as follows: 1) there is an alternating characteristic in river channels and reservoirs in the Jialing River hilly area, with scour occurring in wet years and deposit occurring in dry years. 2) Most of the sediment deposited in river channels and reservoirs is carried off by the largest flood in the year. 3) The model yielded plausible results for runoff and sediment yield dynamics without the need of calibration, and the WSTD-SED model could be usedto obtain qualitative estimates on the effects of land use change scenarios. 4) The modelling results suggest that a 10% increase in cropland(dry land) reforestation results in a 0.7% decrease in runoff and 1.5% decrease in sediment yield.     

Hydrological characteristics of the Rongbuk Glacier catchment in Mt. Qomolangma region in the central Himalayas,China

From 8 April to 11 October in 2005, hydrological observation of the Rongbuk Glacier catchment was carried out in the Mt. Qomolangma (Everest) region in the central Himalayas, China. The results demonstrated that due to its large area with glacier lakes at the tongue of the Rongbuk Glacier, a large amount of stream flow was found at night, which indicates the strong storage characteristic of the Rongbuk Glacier catchment. There was a time lag ranging from 8 to 14 hours between daily discharge peaks and maximum melting (maximum temperature). As melting went on the time lag got shorter. A high correlation was found between the hydrological process and daily temperature during the ablation period. The runoff from April to October was about 80% of the total in the observation period. Compared with the discharge data in 1959, the runoff in 2005 was much more, and the runoff in June, July and August increased by 69%, 35% and 14%, respectively. The rising of temperature is a major factor causing the increase in runoff. The discharges from precipitation and snow and ice melting are separated. The discharge induced by precipitation accounts for about 20% of the total runoff, while snow and ice melting for about 80%.     

SWAT模型对高精度土壤信息的敏感性研究

土壤信息是SWAT模型的重要输入数据,通常认为,土壤信息的精度直接影响着模拟结果的准确性。本文以美国Brewery Creek流域(19.5km²)为例,在其他输入不变的情况下,通过比较不同精度土壤数据(美国农业部SSURGO土壤图与SoLIM方法获得的土壤图)的模拟径流,分析SWAT模型对高精度土壤信息的敏感性。应用结果显示,在模型的校正前后,两种土壤数据的径流模拟结果均近似,差别并不显著。这表明在小流域水文模拟中,SWAT模型的径流模拟对高精度土壤信息的敏感性较弱,模拟径流不能很好的体现一定精度基础上土壤信息的差别。本文将此现象主要归因于:SWAT模型所采用的SCS-CN径流计算方法,在计算CN值(Curve Number)时将不同土壤类型综合到四个土壤水文组的做法,概括了土壤信息,模糊了土壤之间的属性差别,损失了土壤精度信息。本研究发现了SCS-CN径流计算方法在利用高精度土壤数据时存在的问题,并进行了分析,为水文模拟中参数的确定和数据的准备提供了参考。     

基于监督与非监督分割评价方法提取高分辨率遥感影像特定目标地物的对比研究

基于地理对象的影像分析方法已成为高分辨率遥感影像分析的重要手段。影像分割作为其关键步骤,如何设置合适的分割算法参数对后续分割和分类结果有重要的影响。目前分割参数优选方法的探讨分别从非监督与监督分割质量评价2个方面展开,而何者更适合高分辨率遥感影像特定目标地物分析仍缺乏对比研究。本文以城镇和乡村为例,选取多源遥感数据Quickbird、WorldView-2和ALOS影像中共有的3种典型土地覆被为研究对象,基于2种具有代表性的非监督与监督方法ESP2 (Estimation of Scale Parameter 2)与ED2 (Euclidean distance 2) 进行实验,对最优分割和分类的结果进行全面的对比分析。结果表明：① 相同实验参数下,监督方法均能以较少的分割数据集获得目标地物的最优分割结果,且与真实地理对象吻合度更高;② 非监督方法依靠影像自身特征分析进行分割参数优选,无法克服不同景观格局和影像分辨率的影响,而监督方法可通过改变参考数据集的面积和空间分布模式等来降低其影响;③ 非监督方法往往因为欠分割而漏分小目标地物,这样会严重影响局部分类结果。虽然本文中非监督与监督方法的整体分类精度均可达90.08%以上,但非监督方法的漏分率却是监督方法的1.43~4.65倍。因此,本研究认为监督方法更适合分析高分辨率遥感影像特定小目标地物。     

流域空间离散化及其对径流过程模拟的影响研究

本文分析比较了流域空间离散化的两种途径 :子流域法和网格法 ,并以此对流域径流过程模拟的影响进行了探讨。结果表明空间尺度和时间尺度之间应该是相互关联、相互匹配的 ;时空尺度具体大小的选定要根据研究目的、研究区域的面积、流域下扩建面信息源和模型输入资料的可获性综合考虑。     

Spatial variation and soil nitrogen potential hotspots in a mixed land cover catchment on the Chinese Loess Plateau

Soil nitrogen(N) is critical to ecosystem services and environmental quality. Hotspots of soil N in areas with high soil moisture have been widely studied, however, their spatial distribution and their linkage with soil N variation have seldom been examined at a catchment scale in areas with low soil water content. We investigated the spatial variation of soil N and its hotspots in a mixed land cover catchment on the Chinese Loess Plateau and used multiple statistical methods to evaluate the effects of the critical environmental factors on soil N variation and potential hotspots. The results demonstrated that land cover, soil moisture, elevation, plan curvature and flow accumulation were the dominant factors affecting the spatial variation of soil nitrate(NN), while land cover and slope aspect were the most important factors impacting the spatial distribution of soil ammonium(AN) and total nitrogen(TN). In the studied catchment, the forestland, gully land and grassland were found to be the potential hotspots of soil NN, AN and TN accumulation, respectively. We concluded that land cover and slope aspect could be proxies to determine the potential hotspots of soil N at the catchment scale. Overall, land cover was the most important factor that resulted in the spatial variations of soil N. The findings may help us to better understand the environmental factors affecting soil N hotspots and their spatial variation at the catchment scale in terrestrial ecosystems.     

利用多源城市数据划定地铁站点吸引范围

随着时代的发展,世界城市规模不断扩大,各大城市的交通需求陡然增加,而地面出行所带来的堵塞和环保问题导致政府部门把目光转向地下交通发展,其中地铁是地下交通发展中最重要的交通工具.准确划定地铁站点吸引范围,分析影响地铁站点吸引范围主要因素,不仅对于优化地铁交通服务和规划地铁周边建成环境具有重要意义,同时对于新建地铁站点设施...     

Evaluating Spatial Heterogeneity of Land Surface Hydrothermal Conditions in the Heihe River Basin

Land surface hydrothermal conditions(LSHCs) reflect land surface moisture and heat conditions, and play an important role in energy and water cycles in soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. Based on comparison of four evaluation methods(namely, the classic statistical method, geostatistical method, information theory method, and fractal method), this study proposed a new scheme for evaluating the spatial heterogeneity of LSHCs. This scheme incorporates diverse remotely sensed surface parameters, e.g., leaf area index-LAI, the normalized difference vegetation index-NDVI, net radiation-Rn, and land surface temperature-LST. The LSHCs can be classified into three categories, namely homogeneous, moderately heterogeneous and highly heterogeneous based on the remotely sensed LAI data with a 30 m spatial resolution and the combination of normalized information entropy(S') and coefficient of variation(CV). Based on the evaluation scheme, the spatial heterogeneity of land surface hydrothermal conditions at six typical flux observation stations in the Heihe River Basin during the vegetation growing season were evaluated. The evaluation results were consistent with the land surface type characteristics exhibited by Google Earth imagery and spatial heterogeneity assessed by high resolution remote sensing evapotranspiration data. Impact factors such as precipitation and irrigation events, spatial resolutions of remote sensing data, heterogeneity in the vertical direction, topography and sparse vegetation could also affect the evaluation results. For instance, short-term changes(precipitation and irrigation events) in the spatial heterogeneity of LSHCs can be diagnosed by energy factors, while long-term changes can be indicated by vegetation factors. The spatial heterogeneity of LSHCs decreases when decreasing the spatial resolution of remote sensing data. The proposed evaluation scheme would be useful for the quantification of spatial heterogeneity of LSHCs over flux observation stations toward the global scale, and also contribute to the improvement of the accuracy of estimation and validation for remotely sensed(or model simulated) evapotranspiration.     

面向对象的航空高光谱图像混合分类方法

传统的高光谱分类通常仅考虑单一像元的光谱或纹理特征,分类后容易出现地物破碎的现象。鉴于此,本文提出了一种面向对象的混合分类方法,将面向对象的分割结果与传统的像元级分类结果进行有机融合,充分利用对象的光谱特征和空间结构特征。在此基础上,引入了2种具体的混合分类方法,即多尺度分割的SVM分类和多波段分水岭分割的SVM分类。前者将地物光谱的可变性进行弱化处理,转化为多尺度均质对象单元进行分类;后者融入了地物的空间信息和形态学特征,对分割得到的同质区域进行分类。将这2种分类方法应用于航空高光谱数据,实验结果表明：面向对象的混合分类方法的总体精度分别为92.63%和96.13%,与传统的像元级分类法相比,分别提高了10.14%和13.64%,有效地解决了分类后地物的破碎现象。     

顾及地表汇水分析的城市DEM构建

城市暴雨内涝是城市最普遍的自然灾害之一。受城市复杂下垫面环境的影响,城市暴雨积水具有响应时间短、淹没速度快的特点。数字高程模型（Digital Elevation Model, DEM）是城市地表汇水分析的关键,是暴雨积水分析的基础,而传统方法构建的DEM不能满足复杂下垫面环境下城市暴雨积水淹没分析的需求。本文以构建顾及地表汇水分析的城市DEM为目的,提出基于多源数据融合思想和地形修正思想的DEM构建方法,即将数字摄影测量技术构建的大范围DEM与车载激光扫描技术构建的城市道路高精度DEM相融合,再利用影响雨水汇流路径的建筑物、水系等要素对DEM进行修正的构建方法。本文以北京市海淀区公主坟地区为例进行研究,结果表明该方法构建的DEM在道路区域高程精度可达厘米级,实现了对城市道路易积水区域的重点表达,基于该DEM的汇水分析结果基本符合城市下垫面汇水特点,因此,本文构建的DEM适用于城市道路、桥区汇水路径分析和积水淹没分析。