Hazard assessment of landslide disaster using information value method and analytical hierarchy process in highly tectonic Chamba region in bosom of Himalaya

The present study is focused on a comparative evaluation of landslide disaster using analytical hierarchy process and information value method for hazard assessment in highly tectonic Chamba region in bosom of Himalaya. During study, the information about the causative factors was generated and the landslide hazard zonation maps were delineated using Information Value Method (IV) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) using ArcGIS (ESRI). For this purpose, the study area was selected in a part of Ravi river catchment along one of the landslide prone Chamba to Bharmour road corridor of National Highway (NH-154A) in Himachal Pradesh, India. A numeral landslide triggering geoenvironmental factors i.e. slope, aspect, relative relief, soil, curvature, land use and land cover (LULC), lithology, drainage density, and lineament density were selected for landslide hazard mapping based on landslide inventory. Landslide hazard zonation map was categorized namely “very high hazard, high hazard, medium hazard, low hazard, and very low hazard”. The results from these two methods were validated using Area Under Curve (AUC) plots. It is found that hazard zonation map prepared using information value method and analytical hierarchy process methods possess the prediction rate of 78.87% and 75.42%, respectively. Hence, landslide hazard zonation map obtained using information value method is proposed to be more useful for the study area. These final hazard zonation maps can be used by various stakeholders like engineers and administrators for proper maintenance and smooth traffic flow between Chamba and Bharmour cities, which is the only route connecting these tourist places.     

中国北方典型农牧交错区的土壤风蚀危险度研究

土壤风蚀及其引发的土地退化、沙化和沙尘暴是中国北方严重的环境问题之一。通过定量评估中国北方典型农牧交错地区土壤风蚀危险程度,可以为区域生态环境的保护和生态修复提供科学支撑。本文基于文献调研、兼顾数据的可获得性,建立了包括风场强度、植被覆盖率、地形起伏度、土壤干燥度等因子在内的风蚀危险程度评价指标体系。同时,依据遥感参数反演和地面气象观测数据,在地理信息系统技术支持下,形成了上述因子的空间分布数据。另外,利用层次分析方法,构建土壤风蚀危险度评价模型,得到研究区土壤风蚀危险度的空间分布。最后,结合研究区土地利用数据,探讨了风蚀危险度空间分布格局的自然环境和土地利用背景。研究表明:研究区土壤风蚀极险型区域面积为1.47×10⁴km²,强险型区域面积为6.09×10⁴km²,危险型区域面积为3.47×10⁴km²,轻险型区域面积为3.45×10⁴km²,无险型区域面积为2.19×10⁴km²。本区土壤风蚀危险度呈现出从东南到西北逐渐增强的趋势,这与区域的植被、气候,以及土地利用的空间格局具有内在的有机联系。     

基于格网的洪水灾害危险性评价分析——以巴基斯坦为例

洪水灾害已成为给当今人类带来严重损失的自然灾害之一,因此,灾害风险评价是区域经济持续发展的前提与条件。本文从致灾因子和孕灾环境两方面进行分析,综合考虑降水(累计降雨量和最大降雨量)、河流(河网密度)、地形(高程值和坡度值)、土地利用和植被(NDVI)共5种相关因子,以1km格网数据为基础,运用AHP(层次分析法)对巴基斯坦洪水灾害进行了危险性评价。结果表明:巴基斯坦洪水灾害危险性受降雨和地形的影响较大,其危险程度东南部大于西北部,并由东南部向西北部逐渐递减。     

Landslide hazard and community-based risk reduction effort in Karanganyar and the surrounding area, central Java, Indonesia

Karanganyar and the surrounding area are situated in a dynamic volcanic arc region, where landslide frequently occurs during the rainy season. The rain-induced landslide disasters have been resulting in 65 fatalities and a substantial socioeconomical loss in last December 2007. Again, in early February 2009, 6 more people died, hundreds of people temporary evacuated and tens of houses damaged due to the rain-induced landslide. Accordingly, inter-disciplinary approach for geological, geotechnical and social investigations were undertaken with the goal for improving community resilience in the landslide vulnerable villages. Landslide hazard mapping and community-based landslide mitigation were conducted to reduce the risk of landslides. The hazard mapping was carried out based on the susceptibility assessment with respect to the conditions of slope inclination, types and engineering properties of lithology/soil as well as the types of landuse. All of those parameters were analyzed by applying weighing and scoring system which were calculated by semi qualitative approach (Analytical Hierarchical Process). It was found that the weathered andesitic-steep slope (steeper than 30o) was identified as the highest susceptible slope for rapid landslide, whilst the gentle colluvial slope with inter-stratification of tuffaceous clay-silt was found to be the susceptible slope for creeping. Finally, a programme for landslide risk reduction and control were developed with special emphasize on community-based landslide mitigation and early warning system. It should be highlighted that the social approach needs to be properly addressed in order to guarantee the effectiveness of landslide risk reduction.     

An indicator-based approach to assess village-level social and biophysical vulnerability of agriculture communities in Uttarakhand,India

With the growing recognition to myriad forms of current and future threats in the mountain agriculture systems,there is a pressing need to holistically understand the vulnerability of mountain agriculture communities.The study aims to assess the biophysical and social vulnerability of agriculture communities using an indicator-based approach for the state of Uttarakhand,India.A total of 14 indicators were used to capture biophysical vulnerability and 22 for social vulnerability profiles of15285 villages.Vulnerability analysis was done at village level with weights assigned to each indicator using Analytical Hierarchical Process(AHP).The results of the study highlight the presence of very high biophysical vulnerability(0.82 ± 0.10) and high social vulnerability(0.65 ± 0.15) within the state.Based on the results,it was found that incidences of high biophysical vulnerability coincide with presence of intensified agriculture land and absence of dense forest.Higher social vulnerability scores were found in villages with an absence of local institutions(like Self Helping Groups(SHGs)),negligible infrastructure facilities and higher occupational dependence on agriculture.A contrast was observed in the vulnerability scores of villages present in the three different altitudinal zones in the study area,indicating respective vulnerability generating conditions existing in these three zones.Biophysical vulnerability was recorded to be highest in the villages falling in the lower zone and lowest in the upper zone villages;whereas,social vulnerability was found to be highest in the middle zone villages and lowest in lower zone villages.Our study aids policy makers in identifying areas for intervention to expedite agriculture adaptation planning in the state.Additionally,the adaptation programmes in the region need to be more context-specific to accommodate the differential altitudinal vulnerability profiles.     

Landslide dynamic process and parameter sensitivity analysis by discrete element method: the case of Turnoff Creek rock avalanche

The great diversity and complexity of geological hazards in terms of flowing materials, environment, triggering mechanisms and physical processes during the flow bring great difficulties to the numerical parameter selection for the discrete element method. In order to identity the significance of individual parameters on the landslides dynamic process and provide valuable contribution to the runout analysis of similar landslide, the dynamic process and associated microscopic mechanism of the Turnoff Creek rock avalanche in Canada are simulated. The present numerical results are compared with the field survey data and the results of depth-integrated continuum method. The final deposit range matches well with the field survey data. It is illustrated that the discrete element method is robust and feasible to capture the dynamic characteristics of large rock avalanche over a complex terrain. Besides, a new method to assess the landslide hazard level based on the discrete element method is proposed. According to the parameter sensitivity analysis, it is demonstrated that the basal friction coefficient and bond strength are essential to the final deposit while rolling coefficient and restitution coefficient have little effects on it.     

基于层次分析法的动态指标体系管理系统及其应用

层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP),是从定性分析到定量分析综合集成的一种典型的系统工程方法。本文介绍了利用层次分析法的原理设计的一个动态的指标体系管理及指数计算输出系统,并介绍了基于这个系统的一个应用案例--农业现代化程度评价指标体系的构建及计算、输出过程。     

基于傅里叶变换的谷间距特征信息提取及其影响因素研究

谷间距(Valley Spacing)是描述相邻沟谷距离的特征参数,它能较好地反映沟谷的次序等级和空间分布特征。本研究以黑河正义峡和兰州大岭岘2个样区为例,利用ArcGIS软件,将无人机测绘获取的0.12 m分辨率地表高程数据通过重采样生成不同分辨率的数字地表模型。通过MATLAB软件,将不同分辨率、不同空间域的数字地表模型作为二维空间域信号进行傅里叶变换。通过傅里叶变换及频谱分析研究地形的频谱特征与地表谷间距之间的转换关系。分析结果显示:①当区域内只有一级沟谷时,频谱中谷间距特征信号的有效提取要求地形分辨率至少优于1/5谷间距,分辨率的粗略化则直接影响着地形频谱中谷间距特征信号的识别,但是分析空间域对频谱谷间距特征信号的捕获影响较小;②当区域内有多级沟谷时,分辨率优于1/3谷间距时即可有效提取到该级沟谷的谷间距特征信号,分辨率的粗略化和空间域的增大都会使得频谱中较低序次等级沟谷的谷间距特征信号减弱,而较高序次等级沟谷的谷间距特征信号增强。     

Characteristics and dynamics of the Ganqiuchi rock avalanche triggered by a paleo-earthquake in the Northern Qinling Mountains

Analyzing large prehistoric rock avalanches provides significant data for evaluating the disaster posed by these relatively infrequent but destructive geological events. This paper attempts to study the characteristics and dynamics of the Ganqiuchi granitic rock avalanche, in the middle of the northern margin of Qinling Mountains, 30 km to the south of Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, China. In plane view, this rock avalanche is characterized by source area, accumulation area and dammed lake area. Based on previous studies, historical records and regional geological data, the major trigger of the Ganqiuchi rock avalanche is considered to be a strong paleo-earthquake with tremendous energy. The in situ deposit block size distributions of the intact rock mass and the debris deposits are presented and analyzed by using a simple model for estimating the number of fragmentation cycles that the blocks underwent. The results show that the primary controlling factor of the fragmentation process is the pre-existing fractures, and there is a relationship between the potential energy and the fragmentation energy: the latter is approximately 20% of the former. Based on the dynamic discrete element technique, the study proposes a four-stage model for the dynamic course of the Ganqiuchi rock avalanche:(1) failing;(2) highspeed sliding;(3) collision with obstacles;(4) decelerated sliding, which has implication for hazard assessment of the potential rock avalanches in China and other countries with similar geological setting.     

Landslide susceptibility analysis of Karakoram highway using analytical hierarchy process and scoops 3D

Landslides are prevalent, regular, and expensive hazards in the Karakoram Highway(KKH) region. The KKH connects Pakistan with China in the present China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC) context. This region has not only immense economic importance but also ecological significance. The purpose of the study was to map the landslide-prone areas along KKH using two different techniquesAnalytical Hierarchy Process(AHP) and Scoops 3 D model. The causative parameters for running AHP include the lithology, presence of thrust, land use land cover, precipitation, and Digital Elevation Model(DEM) derived variables(slope, curvature, aspect, and elevation). The AHP derived final landslide susceptibility map was classified into four zones, i.e., low, moderate, high, and extremely high. Over 80% of the study area falls under the moderate(43%) and high(40%) landslide susceptible zones. To assess the slope stability of the study area, the Scoops 3 D model was used by integrating with the earthquake loading data. The results of the limit equilibrium analysis categorized the area into four groups(low, moderate, high, and extremely high mass) of slope failure. The areas around Main Mantle Thrust(MMT) including Dubair, Jijal, and Kohistan regions, had high volumes of potential slope failures. The results from AHP and Scoops 3 D techniques were validated with the landslides inventory record of the Geological Survey of Pakistan and Google Earth. The results from both the techniques showed similar output that coincides with the known landslides areas. However, Scoops 3 D provides not only susceptible zones but also the range of volume of the potential slope failures. Further, these techniques could be used in other mountainous areas, which could help in the landslide mitigation measures.     

基于GIS的贫困地区降雨诱发型地质灾害风险评估————以湖北省恩施州为例

湖北省恩施土家族苗族自治州(简称恩施州)地处中国14个集中连片特困区之一的武陵山区内,州内少数民族聚居多,贫困人口分布广,地质灾害频发,"因灾致贫,因灾返贫"现象较为突出.本文根据灾害系统学原理和灾害风险分析理论,综合考虑恩施州降雨诱发型地质灾害的致灾因子,孕灾环境和承灾体,构建了降雨诱发型地质灾害风险评价指标体系,基于灾害系统学原理的风险评估模型,对该区的降雨诱发型地质灾害风险进行评估.主要结论如下:(1)降雨诱发型地质灾害的诱发因子为强降雨,恩施州降水丰沛,恩施市中部与鹤峰县东南部属于致灾因子高危险性区域;(2)选取地形地貌,基础地质,水文条件,人类工程活动等孕灾环境要素,耦合信息量法和层次分析法,构建恩施州孕灾环境敏感性评价指标体系,结果表明恩施州孕灾环境敏感性较高,高区域主要分布在巴东县,恩施市和鹤峰县;(3)选取工程建筑,居民人口,社会经济,耕地等承灾体进行脆弱性评估,结果表明承灾体脆弱性较高区域与人口集中地区在空间上重合,利川市和来凤县有更多的高脆弱性区域;(4)综上可知,恩施州的降雨诱发型地质灾害风险总体较高,其较高,高风险区域主要分布在巴东县和恩施市.     

The evaluation of eco-environmental susceptibility to human activity in Yulin region

The eco-environmental susceptibility is to demonstrate the reaction of a ecosystem under the same influences of the human activity. It comprise many influencing factors which have a complicated relation to the eco-environmental susceptibility. In this paper, the Analysis of Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to determine the weight of each factor to the eco-environmental susceptibility through analyzing the relationship between human activity and environmental deterioration. And the weighted summation method is used to calculate the eco-environmental susceptibility of different divisions in Yulin region. The result shows that the loess hilly and gully area is more subjective to deteriorating eco-environment than the desert area because of the strong human activity and severe soil erosion. The project is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China     

THE EVALUATION OF ECO－ENVIRONMENTAL SUSCEPTIBILITY TO HUMAN ACTIVITY IN YULIN REGION

ＴＨＥＥＶＡＬＵＡＴＩＯＮＯＦＥＣＯ－ＥＮＶＩＲＯＮＭＥＮＴＡＬＳＵＳＣＥＰＴＩＢＩＬＩＴＹＴＯＨＵＭＡＮＡＣＴＩＶＩＴＹＩＮＹＵＬＩＮＲＥＧＩＯＮ陈利顶，傅伯杰ＴＨＥＥＶＡＬＵＡＴＩＯＮＯＦＥＣＯ－ＥＮＶＩＲＯＮＭＥＮＴＡＬＳＵＳＣＥＰＴＩＢＩＬＩ...     

Risk assessments of debris flow based on improved analytic hierarchy process and efficacy coefficient method

In order to evaluate the danger of debris flow properly, eight factors were selected as the risk assessment indexes of the debris flow, namely the vertical slope, valley relative difference, hillside slope, area of basin, loose solid material reserves, the path length of sediment supply probability, silting and scouring derricking and vegetation coverage. The improved Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was used to obtain the weights of the factors; and the efficacy coefficient method was adopted to evaluate the risks of six typical debris flow gullies. According to the research, the improved AHP method not only avoids the subjectivity in the individual factor valuation by comparing two factors of each layer, but also makes the subsequent consistency check unnecessary.     

A methodological approach for weighting factors in land suitability assessment: a tool for facilitating spatial planning

The increasing demand for infrastructural facilities in hill areas needs efficient spatial planning at the local level through land suitability assessment,which is influenced by a number of factors. There has been little systematic empirical work for identification and evaluation of the factors affecting spatial planning decisions in hill areas. The present study focuses on identifying the critical factors for land suitability assessment at the local level in hill areas and determining their percentage influence, which has been done in two stages. In the first stage, the comprehensive list of 21 factors from the reported literature was prepared which was further condensed to the critical factors. In the second stage, the percentage influence of the critical factors was calculated by analyzing the experts' opinions collected through a questionnaire survey. Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) was used for the analysis of the questionnaire for weighting the critical factors. The slope was identified with the highest weight followed by aspect, surface runoff, elevation, and vegetation,whereas groundwater table, existing utilities,accessibility, soil type, and land use have comparatively less weights. The results of the study were used for the identification of locations for builtup facilities of an educational campus located in hill areas of Himachal Pradesh, India.     

山东烟台白洋河岩溶水系统岩溶塌陷发育规律及易发性评价

近年来,山东烟台白洋河地区发生多次岩溶塌陷,对烟台市城镇化建设、当地居民的财产造成了一定的损失,造成了一定的社会影响。本文以白洋河岩溶水系统为研究对象,采用定性与定量相结合的方法,选取岩溶发育程度、地下水动力条件、覆盖层特征3个一级评价因子,地质构造、基岩富水性、水位变幅、水位与基岩面关系、覆盖层结构、覆盖层厚度指数、覆盖层底板特征7个二级因子,采用层次分析与综合指数法进行易发性评价,为防灾减灾提供地质依据。     

山东省地质灾害分区与防治对策研究

根据山东省地质环境条件、地质灾害分布与发育规律,结合灾害所造成的经济损失,将山东省分为7个主要地质灾害区(地面沉降、地裂缝、采空塌陷、岩溶塌陷、崩塌滑坡泥石流、崩塌泥石流、海咸水入侵)、26个地质灾害地段。通过调查及综合研究,对各区段地质灾害特征和发生规律等进行了概略评价;提出了地质灾害防治的行政性对策建议,并针对不同类型地质灾害提出了技术性对策。     

移去-恢复法校准重力异常场及其应用

对经典移去-恢复法进行改进,利用EGM2008地球重力场模型、地表重力/GPS联合观测数据和ASTER数字地形模型,提出考虑地形梯度特征的区域重力场校准算法,同时针对我国动态重力区域网布设情况,对重力场的校准区域范围进行更为合理的设定。通过与经典移去-恢复法在川西地区实际应用的比较发现,改进模型能够将川西地区重力场模型数据的标准差从65.09 mGal降至61.24 mGal,在结合地形梯度影响后,能够将标准差进一步降至59.31 mGal。采用国际重力局最新发布的283个重力数据对喜马拉雅东构造结及邻区的重力场进行校准,结果表明,布格重力异常和地形数据有很强的正相关,该区中东部存在明显的均衡重力异常低值区。     

Progresses in geology and hazards analysis of Tianchi Volcano

A number of different lahars have been recognized from a systematic survey of a mapping project. The high setting temporamre feature of the deposits indicates a relationship between the lahar and the Millennium eruption event of Tianchi Volcano. The lahars caused a dramatic disaster. Recognize of the huge avalanche scars and deposits around Tianchi Volcano imply another highly destructive hazard. Three types of different texture of the avalanche deposits have been recognized. There was often magma mixing processes during the Millennium eruption of Tianchi Volcano, indicating a mixing and co-eruption regime of the eruption.     

Relationships between landslide types and topographic attributes in a loess catchment, China

Topographic attributes have been identified as the most important factor in controlling the initiation and distribution of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall.As a result,these landslides influence the evolution of local surface topography.In this research,an area of 2.6 km 2 loess catchment in the Huachi County was selected as the study area locating in the Chinese Loess Plateau.The landslides inventory and landslide types were mapped using global position system(GPS) and field mapping.The landslide inventory shows that these shallow landslides involve different movement types including slide,creep and fall.Meanwhile,main topographic attributes were generated based on a high resolution digital terrain model(5 m × 5 m),including aspect,slope shape,elevation,slope angle and contributing area.These maps were overlaid with the spatial distributions of total landslides and each type of landslides in a geographic information system(GIS),respectively,to assess their spatial frequency distributions and relative failure potentials related to these selected topographic attributes.The spatial analysis results revealed that there is a close relation between the topographic attributes of the postlandsliding local surface and the types of landslide movement.Meanwhile,the types of landslide movement have some obvious differences in local topographic attributes,which can influence the relative failure potential of different types of landslides.These results have practical significance to mitigate natural hazard and understandgeomorphologic process in thick loess area.