Decadal behaviour of a washover fan,Skallingen Denmark

In this study, the decadal evolution of a washover fan on the west coast of Denmark is examined from its initial generation in 1990 until 2015. Since its inception, the bare and flat washover fan surface has recovered and accreted slowly due to re-activation by overwash during surges and due to aeolian activity and dune formation, stimulated by vegetation growth. The volume of sand on the washover has increased steadily at an average rate of about 23 m³/yr per unit length of shoreline, and a total of 175,000 m³ of sand is now deposited on the fan, while at the same time the shoreline has receded by some 250 m. The evolution can be divided into three stages: 1) An initiation phase when storm surge levels and energetic wave conditions caused a breach in the foredunes and overwash processes formed a washover fan with a relatively low elevation above mean sea level; 2) An initial recovery phase during which waves supplied sand to the fan during frequent overwash activity and winds transported this sand into marginal dunes surrounding the fan; and 3) A later recovery phase when the surface of the fan had accreted to a level where vegetation could survive and trap sediment into new foredune growth across the fan. The rate of accretion has been overall linear but scales with neither annual overwash frequency, nor with aeolian transport potential. Instead, the linear accretion is more closely related to the steady onshore migration of nearshore bars that weld to the beach and provide a sand supply for transfer to the fan. The fan evolution demonstrates the importance of washover fans in preserving barrier resilience during transgressional phases caused by increasing mean sea level. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Lateral textural grading in overwash sediments

Overwash deposits are characterized by horizontally layered laminations. Vertical sequences could be interpreted in terms of individual storm deposits by recognizing time breaks or discontinuities in the stratigraphic section. Results from comparison of channel deposit data for textural grading across the washover fan were inconclusive. Samples taken from individual laminations revealed the true textural grading when traced along a 61 m trench and sampled at designated localities. The overwash deposit was found to become finer in grain size from the apex to the margins of sedimentation in the direction of transport.     

Effects of Marine Overwash for Atoll Aquifers: Environmental and Human Factors

Inundation of atoll islands by marine overwash is a serious threat to fresh groundwater, which can be a critical emergency water resource after artificial storage or other water resource infrastructure has been exhausted or destroyed. In contrast to drought, which slowly exhausts water supplies and often can be forecasted in time, overwash can occur with little warning and can ruin both rain catchment storage and groundwater reserves. In this study, a SUTRA‐based model is applied to estimate how groundwater contamination by overwash and subsequent recovery of fresh groundwater are influenced by geologic factors (aquifer hydraulic conductivity, dispersivity, and the presence or absence of a reef flat plate), the seasonal timing of the event (wet vs. dry), and the presence of hand‐dug wells that penetrate the reef flat plate. Actual tidal and rainfall data from regions in the western Pacific are applied to simulated 30‐month recovery periods for hypothetical islands with properties and conditions characteristic of the western Pacific. For all scenarios, results indicate that 12 to 16 months are required to achieve 60% recovery of fresh groundwater. However, the time required to restore useful quantities of groundwater to acceptable salt concentration at depths typical of hand‐dug wells is only 3 to 6 months. Of particular interest is the influence of the reef flat plate, which acts as a barrier to infiltrating seawater, thus preserving a pocket of confined freshwater during an overwash event and the recovery, which could probably be utilized if the necessary tools and equipment are on hand.     

Quantifying threats to groundwater resources in the Republic of Maldives Part II: Recovery from tsunami marine overwash events

Marine overwash events are among the most serious short‐term threats to groundwater supply of small coral islands. During such events, seawater can inundate small islands partially or completely, causing salinization of the aquifer. A comprehensive knowledge of freshwater lens recovery is essential for water planners on these islands. In this study, a numerical modelling approach is used to quantify recovery of the freshwater lens on 4 islands of the Maldives after a tsunami‐induced overwash event similar to that experienced from the Indian Ocean earthquake in December 2004. The islands vary in size (0.2 to 10.1 km²) and span the climatic regions of the Maldives. A tested 3‐dimensional SEAWAT groundwater model for each island is used to simulate the recovery process. Recharge rates from historical rainfall data and from global climate models are imposed on each island during the post‐overwash recovery period. The effect of groundwater pumping on lens recovery also is examined. Results show abrupt decrease in fresh groundwater volumes for each island, followed by recovery that is significantly influenced by island size and recharge patterns. Overall, salinization is more widespread on small islands (<1 km²), but recovery is more rapid than for large islands. Between 50% and 90% of lens recovery occurs after 2 years for small islands (<1 km²) whereas only 35% and 55% for large islands. Imposing pumping rates required to sustain the local population lengthened the recovery time between 5% and 15%, with smaller islands having the higher percentage. However, the governing factor on recovery time is the spatial extent of land surface inundation by the overwash event, with wave height and duration of the event having a negligible impact. A strong relationship exists between required recovery time and island surface area, thereby providing a method to determine recovery time for other atoll islands not investigated in this study with similar geologic structure. Our results can be used to aid in managing water resources during the post‐overwash period.     

Overwash-dominated stratigraphy of barriers with intermittent inlets

The morphodynamics and structure of barriers with persistent tidal inlets have been well studied. In contrast the stratigraphy and functioning of barrier systems with ephemeral inlets is poorly understood. This article examines the barrier-inlet systems of two intermittently closed open lagoons or temporarily open closed estuaries on the east coast of South Africa. Multiple geophysical surveys using ground-penetrating radar (GPR) were correlated with exposed sections of the barrier where inlet formation revealed the internal stratigraphy. Stratigraphic observations were placed in the context of the contemporary wave dynamics and mesoscale geomorphic evolution. The integrated databases reveal an absence of migrating channel features. Instead the stratigraphy is dominated by landward dipping sheets of alternating high- and low-amplitude reflectors. These correlate with gravel, shell debris and heavy mineral-lined beds formed by overwash processes. Where ephemeral inlet structures are preserved in the stratigraphy, their fills comprise aggrading, high-amplitude reflectors, linked to washover infilling of the inlet mouth. Multiple small channels in the more distal portions of the barrier in georadar stratigraphy are related to channelized washover flow. These barriers often breach during high swell and are subsequently sealed during fairweather wave conditions. Time series analysis of waves and satellite imagery shows a link between storms from the south and breach events. This is consistent with the truncations in subsurface images and inferred barrier lowering by overwash channelling. These barriers experience quasi-stable oscillations in their landward and seaward shore position, punctuated by periods of barrier rollover associated with the most intense storms. As overwash is responsible in part for both the constructive and destructive phases of the barrier, these barriers have low preservation potential. Persistent rollover driven by overwashing will terminate once accommodation space is eliminated and the barriers are eroded by storm activity. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying transient post‐overwash aquifer recovery for atoll islands in the Western Pacific

Marine overwash events for atoll islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, which cause salinization of fresh groundwater because of infiltrating seawater, pose a significant challenge for island community sustainability in regard to water supply. Understanding transient fresh groundwater development during a post‐overwash period for a range of island sizes, geologic characteristics, and rainfall patterns is essential for water management. This paper presents a methodology for quantifying this development for an atoll nation, with methods applied to the 32 atolls of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) in the western Pacific. Using the numerical groundwater modelling code SUTRA, overwash events and post‐overwash freshwater–seawater dynamics are simulated for the range of island widths (200 to 1100 m), geologic characteristics (hydraulic conductivity corresponding to leeward and windward islands), and rainfall patterns (western, central, and eastern regions) present in the FSM, thereby providing results for each atoll island. Results show that 10–17, 8–12, and 6–12 months are required to achieve 60% freshwater lens recovery for leeward islands in the western, central, and eastern FSM, respectively, with variation due to rainfall rate and island width. In contrast, 4–9 months is required for 60% recovery for windward islands. However, the natural thinness of the lend on windward islands typically precludes extensive use of groundwater under average rainfall conditions. Overwash characteristics (depth, duration, and seasonal timing) did not significantly affect recovery times. For the region of lowest rainfall (western FSM), 6–10 months is required to achieve potable groundwater at the typical depth of hand‐dug wells. Results provide water resource managers and atoll island communities with important information regarding timing of potential fresh groundwater use following an overwash event. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Holocene evolution of a rock‐bounded barrier‐lagoon system,Cíes Islands,northwest Iberia

Coastal geomorphology results from the combined effects of contemporary dynamics, sea‐level rise and the inherited geological framework, yet the relative importance of these driving mechanisms may change throughout the evolutionary history of coastal deposits. In this contribution, we analyse the depositional history of the Cíes Islands barrier‐lagoon system, based on lithofacies, radiocarbon ages, and pollen analysis. Our results reveal a sedimentary sequence that provides evidence for striking changes in the dynamical functioning of this complex since the mid‐Holocene. The sedimentary sequence commenced about 7700 cal years bp by fresh‐water ponding of an upland depression located about 4 m below present mean sea‐level. Fresh‐water ponds were infilled by aeolian sediments following a gradual lowering of the water‐table 4000 cal years bp . Post‐3600 cal years bp sea‐level rise allowed water oscillations to reach the elevation of the bedrock causing the inundation of fresh‐water ponds and subsequent lagoonal and marine sedimentation. Subsequently, landward and upward migration of a sand‐barrier led to overwash and deposition of sand in the newly formed lagoon. The resultant sedimentary sequence suggests that climatic conditions played an important role controlling the sedimentation regime during the entire history of the basin; changing water‐table levels during early stages of evolution and increasing storminess during more recent times. In addition, background sea‐level rise related to the Holocene transgression was a key factor in controlling the evolution of the system, yet its influence depended to an extent on the relative elevation of the bedrock topography. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Overwash occurrence consequent on morphodynamic changes following lagoon outlet closure on a coarse clastic barrier

The reduction in sediment volume of an ebb-tide delta, as a consequence of lagoon outlet closure on a coarse clastic barrier in southeast Ireland, initiated a sequence of beachface and barrier changes downdrift. Elimination of sediment supply to the ebb-delta caused a cessation of downdrift longshore swash bar welding, and led to beach volume reductions which in turn allowed a temporal sequence of beach and nearshore morphodynamic domains to develop. These domains then controlled the sedimentation regime of the barrier adjacent to the old outlet. A temporal sequence of (a) dissipative barrier; (b) reflective barrier; and (c) inner reflective (barrier face)/outer dissipative (subtidal) wave regimes match respectively periods of (a) barrier crest build up by crestal dune development; (b) barrier crest instability (barrier width increasing, barrier height decreasing) due to rhythmic overwash; and (c) a return to barrier crest stability with limited aeolian accretion. Two barriers at different stages in this sequence are discussed.     

The effect of tides and storms on the sediment transport across a Dutch barrier island

Under natural conditions, barrier islands might grow vertically and migrate onshore under the influence of long‐term sea level rise. Sediment is transported onshore during storm‐induced overwash and inundation. However, on many Dutch Wadden Islands, dune openings are closed off by artificial sand‐drift dikes that prevent the influx of sediment during storms. It has been argued that creating openings in the dune row to allow regular flooding on barrier islands can have a positive effect on the sediment budget, but the dominant hydrodynamic processes and their influence on sediment transport during overwash and inundation are unknown. Here, we present an XBeach model study to investigate how sediment transport during overwash and inundation across the beach of a typical mesotidal Wadden Sea barrier island is influenced by wave, tide and storm surge conditions. Firstly, we validated the model XBeach with field data on waves and currents during island inundation. In general, the XBeach model performed well. Secondly, we studied the long‐term sediment transport across the barrier island. We distinguished six representative inundation classes, ranging from frequently occurring, low‐energy events to infrequent, high‐energy events, and simulated the hydrodynamics and sediment transport during these events. An analysis of the model simulations shows that larger storm events cause larger cross‐shore sediment transport, but the net sediment exchange during a storm levels off or even becomes smaller for the largest inundation classes because it is counteracted by larger mean water levels in the Wadden Sea that oppose or even reverse sediment transport during inundation. When taking into account the frequency of occurrence of storms we conclude that the cumulative effect of relatively mild storms on long‐term cross‐shore sediment transport is much larger than that of the large storm events. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Sensitivity of post‐hurricane beach and dune recovery to event frequency

The recovery of Santa Rosa Island in northwest Florida is characterized following Hurricane Katrina (September 2005), which was preceded by Hurricanes Ivan (2004) and Dennis (2005). Beach and dune recovery were quantified to the east and west of Pensacola Beach through a comparison of LiDAR data collected immediately following Hurricane Katrina and in July 2006 after almost a year of recovery. East of Pensacola Beach (the Santa Rosa Unit), the shoreline retreated by an average of 64 m during the 2004–2005 hurricane season and recovered by an average of 19 m. To the west of Pensacola Beach (the Fort Pickens Unit), the shoreline retreated by an average of 30 m, and while no significant shoreface recovery was observed, the presence of vegetation on low‐profile dunes promoted backshore accretion. It is found that beachface recovery in the Santa Rosa Unit and backshore accretion in the Fort Pickens Unit occurred at the widest sections of the island where the pre‐storm profile volume had been relatively large and overwash penetration was at a minimum. The narrow sections of the island (between cuspate headlands) had a smaller profile volume before the storms, leading to greater overwash penetration and in some cases island breaching in both sections, which limited the volume of sediment available for shoreface recovery. The alongshore variation in recovery is not only related to the island width, but also the offshore bathymetry, height of the pre‐storm dunes and the overwash penetration. If sufficient time is allowed for the return of vegetation and the recovery of the dunes, the variations in storm impact observed during Hurricane Ivan will be reinforced during subsequent storms. In this respect, the level of impact during subsequent storms and the ability of the island to recover will depend on the frequency of storm events. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Drone photogrammetry and KMeans point cloud filtering to create high resolution topographic and inundation models of coastal sediment archives

Coastal areas are vulnerable to the impacts of tropical cyclones (TC), tsunamis and other water super‐elevation events, but the frequency of these events is often poorly represented by conventional records. Coastal overwash deposits (including washover fans) can provide a longer‐term archive of event frequency. Because of their low‐gradient geomorphic form, washover fans require high accuracy (centimetre‐resolution) topographic models to understand patterns of connectivity and dynamics that control archive formation. Using images collected by a remotely piloted aircraft system (RPAS, or ‘drone’) and Structure‐from‐Motion (SfM) photogrammetry techniques, we apply a novel point‐cloud filtering technique based on KMeans classification of the R‐G‐B colour of each X‐Y‐Z point to remove vegetation and create a centimetre‐resolution and accuracy bare‐earth digital terrain model (DTM) of a washover fan in Exmouth Gulf (Western Australia). Using the RPAS‐SfM orphophoto and DEM data, supported by ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) and field stratigraphic analysis, we show how this approach can be applied to understand dynamics controlling low‐gradient geomorphic landforms, using an example of a washover fan sedimentary archive in northwestern Australia created by extreme overwash events. Our approach reveals the likely role of backflooding and terrestrial runoff in creating backwater environment for sub‐aqueous deposition and good sediment preservation and identifies key areas to target for detailed dating and stratigraphic analysis of a potentially decadal to sub‐millennial resolution sediment archive of TC activity. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Overwash processes along a gravel beach in south-east Ireland

Recent overwashing, and to a more limited extent overtopping, has occurred on a gravel-dominated beach just west of Carnsore Point in south-east Ireland. At relatively low points swash excursions have breached the duneline and extensive gravel fans have formed on landward-facing slopes. Also, at interbreach positions, swash ramps have been built-up in front of previously eroding dune cliffs, allowing overtopping at heights of up to 5 m above MHWOST, spreading a veneer of sediment over the adjacent dune ridge. In both cases events appear to be preceded by erosion and backbeach sand and gravel deposition. Stratigraphic, textural and fabric analyses assist in identifying environmental conditions that prevailed during overwash throat and fan, and overtopping ramp, sedimentation.     

Coastal vulnerability assessment based on video wave run-up observations at a mesotidal,steep-sloped beach

Coastal imagery obtained from a coastal video monitoring station installed at Faro Beach, S. Portugal, was combined with topographic data from 40 surveys to generate a total of 456 timestack images. The timestack images were processed in an open-access, freely available graphical user interface (GUI) software, developed to extract and process time series of the cross-shore position of the swash extrema. The generated dataset of 2% wave run-up exceedence values R ₂ was used to form empirical formulas, using as input typical hydrodynamic and coastal morphological parameters, generating a best-fit case RMS error of 0.39 m. The R ₂ prediction capacity was improved when the shore-normal wind speed component and/or the tidal elevation η _tide were included in the parameterizations, further reducing the RMS errors to 0.364 m. Introducing the tidal level appeared to allow a more accurate representation of the increased wave energy dissipation during low tides, while the negative trend between R ₂ and the shore-normal wind speed component is probably related to the wind effect on wave breaking. The ratio of the infragravity-to-incident frequency energy contributions to the total swash spectra was in general lower than the ones reported in the literature E _infra/E _inci > 0.8, since low-frequency contributions at the steep, reflective Faro Beach become more significant mainly during storm conditions. An additional parameterization for the total run-up elevation was derived considering only 222 measurements for which η _total,2 exceeded 2 m above MSL and the best-fit case resulted in RMS error of 0.41 m. The equation was applied to predict overwash along Faro Beach for four extreme storm scenarios and the predicted overwash beach sections, corresponded to a percentage of the total length ranging from 36% to 75%.     

Paleozoic submarine volcanoes in the high-P/T metamorphosed Chichibu system of Eastern Shikoku, Japan

The Sawadani greenstone in the Chichibu Paleozoic System is an ancient submarine volcanic complex consisting of pillow lavas and hyaloclastites. The volcanism is divided into two periods. Alkali basalt was erupted in the first period and two shield-shaped cones were formed. After a period of dormancy the volcanism of the second period took place and a cone was formed by eruptions of lavas ranging in composition from mildly alkaline to tholeiitic basalt. The top of the volcano nearly reached the sea surface and was finally about 3.7 km above the base. A limestone cap and volcanic conglomerate were deposited on the summit. The base rests conformably on upper Carboniferous sandstone and subordinate mudstone derived from a continent or mature island arc. Many feeding channels of lava cut the volcanic body and underlying sedimentary formation. Sedimentation proceeded concurrently on the surrounding sea floor, so that volcanic and sedimentary material is interlayered.The Sawadani greenstone, although it occurs in the high-P/T metamorphic belt, is not believed to be a fragment of oceanic crust (ophiolite complex) formed by oceanic ridge volcanism and later carried into a convergent zone. It is a seamount formed on and within a sedimentary sequence near a continent or island arc. The magma changed from alkaline to tholeittic as the volcano grew.It cannot be assumed that all metavolcanic rocks formed in high-pressure metamorphic terranes are fragments of oceanic crust.     

Breaching in a wave-dominated barrier spit: The trabucador bar (north-eastern spanish coast)

The Trabucador Bar is a barrier coast linking the main lobe of the Ebro Delta with its southern spit. This coastal stretch, which may be considered as a microtidal transgressive barrier, is the most vulnerable area of the deltaic coast to storm-induced geomorphologic changes. During the second week of October 1990 a severe storm affected the Ebro Delta causing serious erosion, in which the Trabucador Bar was one of the most damaged zones. A breach 800 m long and with a maximum depth of 0·4 m below the mean water level was created. During the breaching process approximately 70 000 m³ of sand were removed from the subaerial barrier in a few hours. Three factors are normally responsible for the loss of sediment, longshore transport gradient, offshore transport and overwash processes, most of the eroded sediment (60 000 m³) was transported towards the inner bay due to overwash processes. The post-storm recovery of the zone was slow and far from complete, as the breach remained a conduit for onshore sediment transport under a regime of breaking and reforming waves. An artificial dune was subsequently constructed to close the breach and thus allow beachface recovery.     

Features and formation processes of multiple deposition layers from the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami at Ban Nam Kem,southern Thailand

Multiple‐layered tsunami deposits have been frequently reported from coastal stratigraphic sequences, but the formation processes of these layers remain uncertain. A terrestrial sandy deposit formed by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami was investigated at Ban Nam Kem, southern Thailand. Four internal layers induced by two tsunami waves were identified in the tsunami deposit. Sedimentary structures indicated that two units were formed by run‐up currents caused by the tsunami and the other two units were deposited by the backwash flows. Graded bedding was common in the layers, but inverse grading was observed at limited intervals on the surveyed transects. The characteristics of the multiple‐layered tsunami deposit vary remarkably over a very short distance (<1 m) in response to the local topography. Remarkable asymmetries in thickness and grain‐size distribution are recognized between the run‐up and backwash flow deposits. On the basis of the interpretation of sedimentary structures, the formation process of the multiple‐layered tsunami deposit observed in this study can be explained in a schematic model as the modification of the ideal tsunami sequence by local erosion and the asymmetric hydraulic properties of tsunami waves, such as the maximum shear velocity and the heterogeneity of the flow velocity field.     

Statistical Analysis of Triggered Seismicity in the Kresna Region of SW Bulgaria (1904) and the Umbria-Marche Region of Central Italy (1997)

A version of the restricted trigger model is used to analyse the temporal behaviour of some aftershock sequences. The conditional intensity function of the model is similar to that of the Epidemic Type Aftershock-Sequence (ETAS) model with the restriction that only the aftershocks of magnitude bigger than or equal to some threshold M_tr can trigger secondary events. For this reason we have named the model Restricted Epidemic Type Aftershock-Sequence (RETAS) model. Varying the triggering threshold we examine the variants of the RETAS model which range from the Modified Omori Formula (MOF) to the ETAS model, including such models as limit cases. In this way we have a quite large set of models in which to seek the model that fits best an aftershock sequence bringing out the specific features of the seismotectonic region struck by the crisis. We have applied the RETAS model to the analysis of two aftershock sequences: The first is formed by the events which followed the strong earthquake of M=7.8 which occurred in Kresna, SW Bulgaria, in 1904. The second includes three main shocks and a large swarm of minor shocks following the quake of 26 September 1997 in the Umbria-Marche region, central Italy. The MOF provides the best fit to the sequence in Kresna; that leads to the thought that just the stress field changes due to the very strong main shock generate the whole sequence. On the contrary, the complex behaviour of the seismic sequence in Umbria-Marche appears when we make the threshold magnitude vary. Setting the cut-off magnitude M₀=2.9 the best fit is provided by the ETAS model, while if we raise the threshold magnitude M₀=3.6 and set M_tr=5.0, the RETAS model turns out to be the best model. In fact, observing the time distribution of this reduced data set, it appears more evident that especially the strong secondary events are followed by a cluster of aftershocks.     

A new method for spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslide

1 Introduction The landslides influences on the human society have become an environment difficult problem not able to be neglected, and according to the priority of harms, harms of landslides are only smaller than those from earthquakes in all sorts of natural hazards[1]. Landslide is part of rock mass, soil mass or their compound mass slides downward along a certain slid- ing surface under the actions of inner and external dy- namics, and it is one severe instability phenomenon of rock and s…     

Testing the use of feldspars for optical dating of hurricane overwash deposits

The geological record preserved in coastal salt marshes provides an opportunity to determine past hurricane activity during the Late Holocene in New England, USA. High precision dating is important to correlate overwash sand layers associated with hurricane strikes between different sites along the coastline. Three different optical dating methods have been tested and compared with independent age control; i) optically stimulated luminescence from quartz, ii) infrared stimulated luminescence from K-feldspar, and iii) a subtraction method.Quartz and K-feldspar dating results for three samples in a core from Round Hill Beach Marsh are in stratigraphic order and they are consistent within errors with radiocarbon ages and with each other. Subtraction dating results agreed with the quartz and K-feldspar ages for two of the three samples, but the subtraction age of the youngest sample gave an age underestimate. Replicate equivalent dose values from quartz showed a larger variation than those from feldspars, and this resulted in larger errors for the quartz and subtraction ages than those based on feldspars. K-feldspar yields the most precise optical ages, but is complicated by the need to correct for anomalous fading. Both quartz and K-feldspar are suitable for optical dating of hurricane overwash deposits in New England.     

Quantifying threats to groundwater resources in the Republic of Maldives Part I: Future rainfall patterns and sea‐level rise

Reserves of fresh groundwater on atoll islands are extremely fragile due to climatic and anthropogenic stresses. Of major concern is the quantity of water to be available in the coming decades under the influence of variable rainfall patterns, rising sea level, environmental conditions, and expected population growth that depends on groundwater resources. In this study, a 3‐dimensional numerical modelling approach using the SEAWAT modelling code is used to estimate freshwater lens volume fluctuation for 4 representative islands in the Republic of Maldives in response to long‐term changes in rainfall, sea‐level rise (SLR), and anthropogenic stresses such as groundwater pumping and short‐term impacts from tsunami‐induced marine overwash events. This work is divided into 2 papers. This first paper presents numerical model set‐up and calibration, and the effect of future rainfall patterns and SLR on fresh groundwater reserves. The second paper focuses on marine overwash events. The results of simulated future freshwater lens volume presented in the first study contribute to efficient groundwater resources planning and management for the Maldives in the upcoming decades. Freshwater lenses in small atoll islands (area < 0.6 km²) are shown to have a strong variability trends in the upcoming decades with expected reduction in lens volume between 11% and 36% due to SLR. In contrast, freshwater lenses in larger atoll islands (area > 1.0 km²) are shown to have less variability to changing patterns with expected reduction in lens volume between 8% and 26% due to SLR. Study results can provide water resource managers with valuable findings for consideration in water security measures.