Air transport cruise altitude restrictions to minimize contrail formation

Abstract

While quantification of the effects of NO _x and water vapor is still at an early stage there is evidence that contrail formation could make a significant contribution to global warming. This paper builds on previous research that analyzed a policy of restricting air transport cruise altitudes to eliminate contrail formation. Our previous work [Transport. Res. D 7(6) (2002) 451], examined altitude restrictions in European airspace and concluded that this could be a beneficial policy for reducing climate change impacts from aviation. Since most of the flights in European airspace are short-haul flights, this paper evaluates the trade-offs between altitude restrictions, fuel burn and journey times for longer haul flights of up to 6000 nm. Our focus is on the North Atlantic and US airspace and we examine potential contrail fraction to determine optimal cruise altitudes for reducing contrail formation. Changes in fuel burn and travel times associated with flight levels of 18,000 and 31,000 ft for different aircraft types are analyzed. We find that, in most cases, CO₂ emission increases would be unlikely to entirely counteract the benefit of possible reductions in contrail formation. For some aircraft types, the percentage increase in emitted CO₂ was found to be strongly dependent on journey length. In general, journey times appear not to be a major issue except for some aircraft types. Our results suggest that reducing aircraft cruise altitudes could be a beneficial policy for mitigating climate change impacts from the aviation sector. This is clearly dependent on aircraft type and the distances traveled, but more importantly on ambient atmospheric conditions which can vary significantly between regions and due to daily variation. This suggests that real time flight planning to minimize contrail formation should be investigated as a possible climate mitigation policy.     

A Diagnostic Study of the Global Distribution of Contrails Part I: Present Day Climateast;

Summary The global distribution of contrail formation potential and contrail cloud coverage are estimated using meteorological analyses of temperature and humidity (ECMWF re-analyses) and an aircraft fuel inventory. A large potential for contrail formation is found in the upper troposphere, in particular in the tropics, but also at mid-latitudes. The global potential contrail coverage is calculated to be 16%. The actual contrail coverage is proportional to the product of the potential coverage and the fuel consumption of 1991/92 air traffic. The actual global contrail coverage is 0.09%, however, the pattern of main air routes show up in the geographical distribution of contrail coverage with maximum values of more than 5%. Regionally, contrail coverage shows a distinct annual cycle, with larger values in winter than in summer, in the mid-latitudes. The result is only weakly sensitive to the propulsion efficiency of aircraft, but strongly sensitive to aircraft flight altitude. Received October 1, 1997 Revised July 10, 1998     

Estimates of UK CO2 emissions from aviation using air traffic data

The allocation of CO₂ emissions to specific sources is a major policy issue for international aviation, especially for determining allocations for emissions trading schemes. This paper addresses the problem by recommending a possible methodology to allocate emissions to specific sources using detailed air traffic data. The basis for the calculations is an air traffic sample for one full-day of traffic from the UK. In order to analyse aircraft fuel burn use and hence CO₂ emissions, the Reorganized Air Traffic Control Mathematical Simulator (RAMS Plus) and the Advanced Emission Model (AEM III) are used. The results from these detailed simulations are compared with two of the most widely-used aviation CO₂ emission estimates to have been made for the UK: the SERAS study and NETCEN estimate. Their estimates for the year 2000 are 26.1 and 31.4 Mt, respectively. In addition, the most recent NETCEN estimate for the year 2003 is 34.1 Mt of CO₂. Our estimate of total aviation CO₂ emissions, using detailed simulations and real air traffic data, is 34.7 Mt for the year 2004. In addition, emission estimates are compared with two global aviation emission inventories: AERO2K and SAGE. Contributions of the highest-emitting flights and aircraft types are identified. International departures dominate; 6% of flights account for 50% of total emissions. The largest aircraft emit the most per flight-km, although not per passenger-km. Different methodologies and their implications are also discussed.     

基于飞行阶段的精细化航空二氧化碳排放因子研究

航空运输是交通领域CO₂排放增长最快速的部门。文中选择中国民航使用频率较高的超大型、大型、中型和小型飞机的典型机型,基于不同飞机在起飞、爬升、巡航、接近和滑行阶段引擎油耗速率、运行时间和油耗量的变化,计算航空飞机CO₂排放因子。同时结合各机型碳排放因子、额定载客量与客座率评估旅客搭乘不同飞机时的人均CO₂排放量（即单位客运周转量CO₂排放因子)。结果显示,超大型飞机、大型飞机、中型飞机和小型飞机在其航程区间内的平均CO₂排放因子分别为49.8、31.7、16.2和8.5 kg CO₂/km;满载条件下单位客运周转量CO₂排放因子均值分别为102.6、95.2、81.7和112.4 g CO₂/(人∙km)。起飞和爬升阶段引擎油耗速率约为巡航阶段油耗速率的2.6~3.4倍和2.0~2.8倍,飞机CO₂排放因子随飞行里程的提高而降低。航空运输是高碳客运方式,相同里程条件下,航空单位客运周转量CO₂排放因子显著高于高铁、道路机动车等其他客运方式。提升燃油效率、减少短途航运、合理安排航线以提高客座率并减少中途转机是降低航空碳排放量的有效途径。     

Stratospheric aerosol measurements in the Arctic winter of 1996/1997 with the M‐55 Geophysika high‐altitude research aircraft

In‐situ aerosol measurements were performed in the northern hemispheric stratosphere up to altitudes of 21 km between 13 November 1996 and 14 January 1997, inside and outside of the polar vortex during the Airborne Polar Experiment (APE) field campaign. These are measurements of particle size distributions with a laser optical particle counter of the FSSP‐300 type operated during 9 flights on the Russian M‐55 high‐altitude research aircraft Geophysika. For specific flights, the FSSP‐300 measurements are compared with balloon‐borne data (launched from Kiruna, Sweden). It was found that the stratospheric aerosol content reached levels well below the background concentrations measured by the NASA operated ER‐2 in 1988/89 in the northern hemisphere. During the APE campaign, no PSC particle formation was observed at flight altitudes although the temperatures were below the NAT condensation point during one flight. The measured correlations between ozone and aerosol give an indication of the subsidence inside the 1996/97 polar vortex. Despite the lower aerosol content in the winter 1996/97 compared to the 1989 background, the heterogeneous reactivity of the aerosol (as calculated from the measured data with additional model input) is comparable. This is due to the dependency of the reactive uptake coefficients on the atmospheric water vapor content. Under the described assumptions the reaction rates on the background aerosol are significantly smaller than for competing gas phase chlorine activation, as can be expected for stratospheric background conditions especially inside the polar vortex.     

Sampling of Chemical Constituents in Electrically Active Convective Systems: Results and Cautions

On flights of a P3-B turboprop and a WB-57F jet aircraft within thunderstorm systems, short term spikes (1–2 sec or less in duration) in NO and O₃ were recorded and are attributed to hot or cold discharges occurring on the aircraft fuselage or air sampling inlets. One such spike of only ∼300 msec duration reached 325 ppbv of NO on the flight of the jet aircraft while at 13.8 km altitude. In a lightning flash to the P3-B aircraft, production of NO (expected) and NO₂ (unexpected) were directly observed. The NO production was ∼ 1.7 x 10²² molecules/m of flash length. In the P3-B flight at 5.5 km altitude and over a distance of ∼ 275 km within a highly electrically active thunderstorm complex in the equatorial central Pacific Ocean, there was no evidence of production of O₃ or CO by lightning flashes or by any type of hot or cold discharge involved in the development of free-air lightning flashes.     

A comparison of tropical oceanic heat fluxes determined by airborne eddy correlation and shipboard bulk aerodynamic techniques

Vertical turbulent transports of latent and sensible heat through the tropical marine boundary layer were measured with ship and airborne instruments in the GATE experimental area. The measurements from the two systems are compared for cases of simultaneous sampling in the same locations during undisturbed weather and during the wakes of convective disturbances. The paired average fluxes from the airborne eddy correlation measurements and the shipboard bulk aerodynamic measurements, for undisturbed weather, are related with correlation coefficients in the range of 0.6 to 0.9; the correlations depend primarily on stratifications of the aircraft data according to sampling altitude (15–153 m msl) and flight pattern relative to the mean wind. The agreement between the two types of measurements is best for ship data paired with aircraft samples from the lowest altitudes (15 and 30 m) and from alongwind rather than crosswind flights, as is appropriate since the stationary ships monitor the alongwind characteristics of the turbulence. The use of long (1–3 hr) versus short (10 min) ship samples did not significantly affect the comparability with the aircraft samples during undisturbed periods.The good baseline comparability demonstrated by the undisturbed-weather comparisons was applied to interpret the results from the wakes behind showers. Although these paired measurements were few, not only the sensible heat, but also the latent heat flux was shown to decrease substantially with altitude from 10 m to at least 150 m in the wakes, where the mixing was relatively intense. Variations in the fluxes were much greater at the higher level than nearer the sea surface.     

The effects of rerouting aircraft around the arctic circle on arctic and global climate

Climate data suggest greater warming over the Arctic than lower latitudes, and the most abundant direct source of black carbon and other climate-relevant pollutants over the Arctic is cross-polar flights by international aviation. A relevant question is whether rerouting cross-polar flights to circumnavigate the Arctic Circle reduces or enhances such warming. To study this issue, a model accounting for subgrid exhaust plumes from each individual commercial flight worldwide was used with 2006 global aircraft emission inventories that treated cross-polar flights and flights rerouted around the Arctic Circle (66.56083 °N), respectively. Rerouting increased fuel use by 0.056?% in the global average, mostly right outside the Arctic Circle, but most of the associated black carbon and other emissions were removed faster because they were now over latitudes of greater precipitation and lesser stability. Rerouting also reduced fuel use and emissions within the Arctic Circle by 83?% and delayed pollutant transport to the Arctic. The Arctic reduction in pollutants, particularly of black carbon, decreased Arctic and global temperature and increased Arctic sea ice over 22?years. Although the slight increase in total CO₂ emissions due to rerouting may dampen the benefit of rerouting over more decades, rerouting or even partial rerouting (allowing cross-polar flights during polar night only) may delay the elimination of Arctic sea ice, which will otherwise likely occur within the next 2–3 decades due to global warming in general. Rerouting may increase worldwide fuel plus operational costs by only ~$99 million/yr, 47–55 times less than an estimated 2025 U.S.-alone cost savings due to the global warming reduction from rerouting.     

Assessment of greenhouse gases emission from civil aviation in Russia

The greenhouse gases emission (CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O) from domestic and international aviation in the Russian Federation is assessed. In 2007, the total emission of CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O amounted to 18.4 million tons of CO₂-equivalent, which is 21% below the 1990 level. Carbon dioxide dominates in the component composition of the emissions, its part in 2007 accounted for 99.1% of the emission. Taking into account the tendency towards increasing fuel consumption due to intense aircraft traffic it can be expected that compared to the present level the greenhouse gases emissions in 2012 and 2020 will increase by 15 and 45%, respectively. Accounting for the increased aircraft emissions as well as plans of foreign countries to include the international aviation into the scheme of greenhouse gases emission allowance (trade credits) it is expedient to make more precise the greenhouse gases emissions from the Russian aviation based on the detailed flight data for all types of the aircraft.     

The global scale,distribution and growth of aviation: Implications for climate change

Prior to the COVID-19 crisis, global air transport demand was expected to triple between 2020 and 2050. The pandemic, which reduced global air travel significantly, provides an opportunity to discuss the scale, distribution and growth of aviation until 2018, also with a view to consider the climate change implications of a return to volume growth. Industry statistics, data provided by supranational organizations, and national surveys are evaluated to develop a pre-pandemic understanding of air transport demand at global, regional, national and individual scales. Results suggest that the share of the world’s population travelling by air in 2018 was 11%, with at most 4% taking international flights. Data also supports that a minor share of air travelers is responsible for a large share of warming: The percentile of the most frequent fliers – at most 1% of the world population - likely accounts for more than half of the total emissions from passenger air travel. Individual users of private aircraft can contribute to emissions of up to 7,500 t CO₂ per year. Findings are specifically relevant with regard to the insight that a large share of global aviation emissions is not covered by policy agreements.     

Measurements of Trace Substances in the Arctic Troposphere as Potential Precursors and Constituents of Arctic Haze

During two measuring campaigns in early spring 1994 and 1995 (March/April) and one campaign in summer 1994, measurements of ozone, PAN, sulfur dioxide, nitric acid, and particulate nitrate, sulfate, and ammonium (only 1995) were recorded in the Arctic. Observations were made by aircraft at various sites in the eastern and western Arctic. Ozone concentrations showed a steady increase with altitude both in spring and summer. During five flights in springtime, low ozone events (LOEs) could be observed near the surface and up to altitudes of 2000 m. SO₂ background concentrations, ranging from detection limit (0.5 nmol/m³) to 5 nmol/m³, were observed during both spring and summer. Distinct maxima up to 55 nmol/m³ in lower altitudes were only obtained in springtime. Concentrations of the organic nitrate PAN were within a similar range as those of the inorganic nitrate HNO₃ during spring campaigns. In contrast, concentrations of particulate nitrate were one half an order of magnitude lower. HNO₃ concentrations increased significantly with altitude. Evidently, HNO₃ was intruded from the stratosphere into the troposphere. Sulfate concentrations ranged between 5 and 30 nmol/m³; ammonium concentrations were obtained within a range from 10 to 50 nmol/m³.     

Carbon leakage in aviation policy

ABSTRACT

The inherently global, connected nature of aviation means that carbon leakage from aviation policy does not necessarily behave similarly to leakage from other sectors. We model carbon leakage from a range of aviation policy test cases applied to a specific country (the United Kingdom), motivated by a desire to reduce aviation CO₂ faster than achievable by currently-planned global mitigation efforts in pursuit of a year-2050 net zero CO₂ target. We find that there are two main components to leakage: one related to passenger behaviour, which tends to result in emissions reductions outside the policy area (negative leakage), and one related to airline behaviour, which tends to result in emissions increases outside the policy area (positive leakage). The overall leakage impact of a policy, and whether it is positive or negative, depends on the balance of these two components and the geographic scope used, and varies for different policy types. In our simulations, carbon pricing-type policies were associated with leakage of between +50 and ?150% depending on what is assumed about scope and the values of uncertain parameters. Mandatory biofuel use was associated with positive leakage of around 0–40%, and changes in airport landing costs to promote more fuel-efficient aircraft were associated with positive leakage of 50–150%.

Key policy insights

• Carbon leakage in aviation policy arises from airline responses (typically positive leakage) and passenger responses (typically negative leakage).

• Depending on the geographical scope, policy type and values for uncertain parameters, leakage may be between around ?150 to +150%.

• Of the policies investigated in this study, leakage was typically most negative for carbon pricing and most positive for environmental landing charges.

• Absolute values of leakage are smallest where policies are considered on the basis of all arriving and departing flights.

     

Increased Light,Moderate,and Severe Clear-Air Turbulence in Response to Climate Change

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to strengthen the vertical wind shears at aircraft cruising altitudes within the atmospheric jet streams. Such a strengthening would increase the prevalence of the shear instabilities that generate clear-air turbulence. Climate modelling studies have indicated that the amount of moderate-or-greater clear-air turbulence on transatlantic flight routes in winter will increase significantly in future as the climate changes. However,the individual responses of light,moderate,and severe clear-air turbulence have not previously been studied,despite their importance for aircraft operations. Here,we use climate model simulations to analyse the transatlantic wintertime clear-air turbulence response to climate change in five aviation-relevant turbulence strength categories. We find that the probability distributions for an ensemble of 21 clear-air turbulence diagnostics generally gain probability in their right-hand tails when the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is doubled. By converting the diagnostics into eddy dissipation rates,we find that the ensembleaverage airspace volume containing light clear-air turbulence increases by 59%(with an intra-ensemble range of 43%–68%),light-to-moderate by 75%(39%–96%),moderate by 94%(37%–118%),moderate-to-severe by 127%(30%–170%),and severe by 149%(36%–188%). These results suggest that the prevalence of transatlantic wintertime clear-air turbulence will increase significantly in all aviation-relevant strength categories as the climate changes.     

Using a Convection Model to Predict Altitudes of White Stork Migration Over Central Israel

Soaring migrants such as storks, pelicans and large birds of prey rely on thermal convection during migration. The convection model ALPTHERM was designed to predict the onset, strength, duration and depth of thermal convection for varying topographies for glider pilots, based on atmospheric conditions at midnight. We tested ALPTHERM predictions as configured for two topographies of central Israel, the Coastal Plains and the Judean and Samarian Mountains in order to predict altitudes of migrating white storks (Ciconia ciconia). Migrating flocks of white storks were tracked with a motorized glider, to measure maximum altitudes of migration during spring 2000. A significant positive correlation was found between the maximum daily altitudes of migration measured and the predicted upper boundary of thermal convection for the Coastal Plains and Samarian Mountains. Thirty-minute predictions for the Coastal Plains and Samarian Mountains correlated positively with measured maximum migration altitudes per thermal. ALPTHERM forecasts can be used to alter flight altitudes in both civil and especially military aviation and reduce the hazard of serious aircraft collisions with soaring migrants.     

The impact of high altitude aircraft on the ozone layer in the stratosphere

The paper discusses the potential effects on the ozone layer of gases released by the engines of proposed high altitude supersonic aircraft. The major problem arises from the emissions of nitrogen oxides which have the potential to destroy significant quantities of ozone in the stratosphere. The magnitude of the perturbation is highly dependent on the cruise altitude of the aircraft. Furthermore, the depletion of ozone is substantially reduced when heterogeneous conversion of nitrogen oxides into nitric acid on sulfate aerosol particles is taken into account in the calculation. The sensitivity of the aerosol load on stratospheric ozone is investigated. First, the model indicates that the aerosol load induced by the SO₂ released by aircraft is increased by about 10–20% above the background aerosols at mid-high latitude of the Northern Hemisphere at 15 km for the NASA emission scenario A (the NASA emission scenarios are explained in Tables I to III). This increase in aerosol has small effects on stratospheric ozone. Second, when the aerosol load is increased following a volcanic eruption similar to the eruption of El Chichon (Mexico, April 1982), the ozone column in spring increases by as much as 9% in response to the injection of NO _x from the aircraft with the NASA emission scenario A. Finally, the modeled suggests that significant ozone depletion could result from the formation of additional polar stratospheric clouds produced by the injection of H₂O and HNO₃ by the aircraft engines.     

Decreased takeoff performance of aircraft due to climate change

Climate change will likely affect aviation; however, it is not well understood. In particular, the effects of climate change on aircraft’s takeoff performance have seldom been studied. Here, we explore the effects of climate change on the takeoff performance of aircraft, including takeoff distance and climb rate. Takeoff performance normally decreases as temperature and pressure altitude increase. Our study confirms an increasing trend of temperature at 30 major international airports. However, the trend of pressure altitude is shown to be either positive or negative at these airports. Such changes of temperature and pressure altitude lead to longer takeoff distance and lower climb rate in the following century. The average takeoff distance in summer will increase by 0.95–6.5% and 1.6–11% from the historical period (1976–2005) to the mid-century (2021–2050) and from the mid- to late-century (2071–2100). The climb rate in summer will decrease by 0.68–3.4% and 1.3–5.2% from the history to the mid-century and from the mid- to late-century, respectively. Taking Boeing 737-800 aircraft as an example, our results show that it will require additional 3.5–168.7 m takeoff distance in future summers, with variations among different airports.     

A Diagnostic Study of the Global Distribution of Contrails Part II: Future Air Traffic Scenarios

Summary  The global distribution of the contrail coverage is computed for several scenarios of aviation in the years 2015 and 2050 and compared to 1992 using meteorological analysis data representative of present temperature and humidity conditions and assuming 0.5% cover in a reference region 30° W–30° E, 35° N–75° N covering parts of western Europe and the North Atlantic. The mean contrail coverage of the Earth is computed to increase by a factor of about three compared to 1992 and to reach 0.25% in 2015. For three different scenarios of aviation and for constant climatic conditions, the global mean contrail coverage reaches values between 0.26% and 0.75% for 2050. Contrail coverage increases more strongly than total fuel burn mainly because of more traffic in the upper troposphere and because of more efficient engines with cooler exhaust. The overall efficiency of propulsion is expected to grow from about 0.3 in the fleet average of 1992, to 0.4 in 2015, and to 0.5 in 2050. The expansion of air traffic makes Canada, Alaska, the North Pacific route from North America to Japan and most of the Asian continent new regions where contrails are expected to cover more than 0.5% on average. Received September 7, 1998 Revised January 4, 1999     

Climate effect of ozone changes caused by present and future air traffic

 The potential of aircraft-induced ozone changes to force a substantial climate impact is investigated by means of simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model, coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. We present results from several numerical experiments that are based on ozone change patterns for 1992 aviation and on a future scenario for the year 2015. In both cases, the climate signal is statistically significant. The strength of the ozone impact is of comparable magnitude to that arising from aircraft CO₂ emissions, thus meaning a non-negligible contribution to the total climate effect of aviation emissions. There are indications of a characteristic signature of the aircraft ozone related temperature response pattern, distinctly different from that associated with the increase of well-mixed greenhouse gases. Likewise, the climate sensitivity to non-uniform ozone changes including a strong concentration perturbation at the tropopause may be higher than the climate sensitivity to uniform changes of a greenhouse gas. In a hierarchy of experiments, for which the spatial structure of an aircraft-related ozone perturbation was left fixed, while the amplitude of the perturbation was artificially increased, the climate signal depends in a non-linear way on the radiative forcing. Received: 10 September 1998 / Accepted: 4 May 1999     

Subsonic aircraft and ozone trends

Growth in subsonic air traffic over the past 20 years has been dramatic, with an annual increase of }6.1% over the decade between 1978 and 1988. Furthermore, aircraft activities in the year 2000 are predicted to be double those of 1990, with a shift towards more high-flying, longhaul subsonics. Aircraft exhaust gases increase the amount of nitrogen oxides (NO _x ) in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere through injection at cruise altitudes. Given that NO _x is instrumental in tropospheric ozone production and stratospheric ozone destruction, it is important to determine the influence of subsonic aircraft NO _x emissions on levels of atmospheric ozone. This paper describes calculations designed to investigate the impact that subsonic aircraft may already have had on the atmosphere during the 1980s, run in a 2-D chemical-radiative-transport model. The results indicate a significant increase in upper tropospheric ozone over the decade arising from aircraft emissions. However, when comparing model results with observational data, certain discrepancies appear. Lower stratospheric ozone loss over the 1980s does not appear to be greatly altered by the inclusion of aircraft emissions in the model. However, given the trend in greater numbers of long-haul subsonic aircraft, this factor must be considered in any further calculations.     

Comparison of Aircraft and Ground-Based FluxMeasurements during OASIS95

Aircraft and ground-based measurements made during the1995 Australian OASIS field campaign are compared. The aircraft data were recorded during low-level flightsat 6 m above ground level and grid flights at altitudes of between 15 and 65 m, allin unstable atmospheric conditions. The low-level flights revealed an inadequate temperaturesensor response time, a correction for which was determined from subsequent work ina wind tunnel. Aircraft and ground-based measurements of mean wind speed, wind directionand air temperature agree to within 0.2 m s^-1, 4° and 0.9 °C respectively.Comparisons between aircraft and ground-based observations of the standarddeviations of vertical velocity, horizontal wind speed, air temperature and specifichumidity have slopes of 0.96, 0.97, 0.92 and 0.99 respectively but the observed scatter isroughly twice the random error expected due to the averaging length of the aircraft data andthe averaging period of the ground-based data. For the low-level flights, the ground-basedand aircraft measurements of sensible and latent heat flux show mean differences of 27 and-25 W m^-2 respectively, which reduce to 11 and -4 W m^-2 respectivelywhen analysis of aircraft data is limited to areas immediately adjacent to the fluxtowers. For the flights at 15 to 65 m above ground level, the mean differences between theground-based and aircraft measurements of sensible and latent heat flux are -22 and-1 W m^-2 respectively and these change to -1 and -7 W m^-2 respectively oncethe effect of surface heterogeneity is included. Aircraft and ground-based measurementsof net radiation agree to within 6% at one ground-based site but differ by 20% at a second.Aircraft measurements of friction velocity at 6 m above the ground agree well withground-based data, but those from flights between 15 and 65 m above ground level do not.This is because at these heights the aircraft measurements provide the local shear stress,not the surface shear stress. Overall, the level of agreement allows confidence in the aircraftdata provided due care is taken of instrument response times and differences in thesurfaces sampled by aircraft and ground-based systems.