Climate Impact Response Functions as Impact Tools in the Tolerable Windows Approach

A critical issue for policymakers in defining mitigationstrategies for climate change is the availability ofappropriate evaluation tools. The development of climate impactresponse functions (CIRFs) is our reaction to this challenge.CIRFs depict the response of selected climate-sensitive impactsectors across a wide range of plausible futures. They consist ofa limited number of climate-change-related dimensions andsensitivities of sector-specific impact models. The concept ofCIRFs is defined and the procedure to develop them is presented.The use of climate change scenarios derived from various GCMexperiments and the adopted impact assessment models areexplained.The CIRFs presented here consider climate change impacts onnatural vegetation, crop production, and water availability. Theyare part of the ICLIPS integrated assessment framework based onthe tolerable windows approach. CIRFs can be applied both in`forward' and in `inverse' mode. In the latter, they help totranslate thresholds for climate impacts perceived by stakeholders(so-called impact guardrails) into constraints for climatevariables (so-called climate windows). This enables the results ofdetailed impact models to be incorporated into intertemporallyoptimizing integrated assessment models, such as the ICLIPS model.     

The Tolerable Windows Approach: Theoretical and Methodological Foundations

The tolerable windows (TW) approach is presented as a novel scheme for integrated assessment of climate change. The TW approach is based on the specification of a set of guardrails for climate evolution which refer to various climate-related attributes. These constraints, which define what we call tolerable windows, can be purely systemic in nature – like critical thresholds for the North Atlantic Deep Water formation – or of a normative type – like minimum standards for per-capita food production worldwide. Starting from this catalogue of knock-out criteria and using appropriate modeling techniques, those policy strategies which are compatible with all the constraints specified are sought to be identified. In addition to the discussion of the basic elements and the general theory of the TW approach, a modeling exercise is carried out, based on simple models and assumptions adopted from the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU). The analysis shows that if the global mean temperature is restricted to 2°C beyond the preindustrial level, the cumulative emissions of CO2 are asymptotically limited to about 1550 Gt C. Yet the temporal distribution of these emissions is also determined by the climate and socio-economic constraints: using, for example, a maximal tolerable rate of temperature change of 0.2°C/dec and a smoothly varying emissions profile, we obtain the maximal cumulative emissions, amounting to 370 Gt C in 2050 and 585 Gt C in 2100.     

Methodological Aspects of the Tolerable Windows Approach

The tolerable windows approach (TWA) allows the climate policyformulation process to be safeguarded in the following way. First,guardrails are defined in order to exclude intolerable climatechange impacts, on the one hand, and unacceptable socioeconomicconsequences of climate change mitigation measures, on the other.Second, a scientific analysis is conducted to investigate thefeatures of those emission paths that are compatible with theguardrail constraints. The fundamental methodology of the TWA isbest described in terms of the theory of differentialinclusions. This emerging mathematical theory already providesnumerical methods applicable as long as the underlying integratedassessment models are of limited complexity. In order to identifyemissions corridors, we propose a novel calculation schemeapplicable also for large-scale integrated assessment models.     

Climate Policy in Light of Climate Science: The ICLIPS Project

The paper introduces the Tolerable Windows Approach (TWA) asa decision analytical framework for addressing global climatechange. It is implemented as an integrated assessment model (IAM)developed in the project on Integrated Assessment of ClimateProtection Strategies (ICLIPS). The background and the main objectivesof the project are described and its relationships to other currentintegrated assessment efforts are elucidated. Key features ofthe TWA are compared with those of cost-benefit and cost-effectivenessframeworks. An overview of the ICLIPS IAM framework is providedtogether with its methodological foundations. Main features ofthe individual models are presented, covering the climate, theaggregated economic, and the impact models. Additional componentsof the framework include dynamic mitigation cost functions andan agriculture/land-use model (both incorporated into the fullyintegrated ICLIPS climate-economy model) as well as a globalmulti-region, multi-sector, dynamic general equilibrium model.     

Adaptation and the Guardrail Approach to Tolerable Climate Change

Windows delineating tolerable or "acceptable" conditions associated with climate change can be defined in terms of a variety of parameters; a preliminary window offered by the Scientific Advisory Council on Global Change of the Federal Government of Germany sets limits on temperature change and the rate of temperature change. Investment in adaptation can alter the size and shape of these windows, and different emissions trajectories are associated with different limiting points on their boundaries. As a result, the value of adaptation depends upon both the underlying structure of the tolerable window and the basecase emissions trajectory. Given uncertainty about both, the best near-term policy should be cast in a sequential decision-making framework. Seen in this light, improved adaptive potential can either reduce the cost of sustaining tolerable climate change or increase the opportunity cost of holding to more restrictive boundaries.     

Economic Development and Emission Control over the Long Term: The ICLIPS Aggregated Economic Model

In integrated assessments of climate change, greenhouse-gasemissions and climate change impacts provide the linkages betweenthe world economy and the climate system. Key climatic processesoperate at the scales of centuries. This requires highlyaggregated models for portraying the dynamics of the economicsystem. An extended Ramsey-type optimal growth model is presentedas the appropriate tool to be integrated with a reduced-formclimate model in the ICLIPS integrated assessment. Theeleven-region model of the world economy involves exogenouspopulation and endogenous investment dynamics with productivityprogress based on a technological diffusion model. World regionsare linked via intertemporal trade flows of the compositeconsumption/investment good, capital mobility, and emission permittrading. Coupled with the ICLIPS Climate Model, the AggregatedEconomic Model can determine corridors of permitted long-termcarbon emission paths or, as primarily discussed in this paper,specific cost-effective emission trajectories. The sensitivity ofmitigation costs to externally specified climate change/impactconstraints and to assumptions about non-CO₂ greenhouse-gasemissions is also discussed.     

Costs of Reducing Carbon Emissions: An Integrated Modeling Framework Approach

This paper presents an approach to estimating world-regional carbon mitigation cost functions for the years 2020, 2050, and 2100. The approach explicitly includes uncertainty surrounding such carbon reduction costs. It is based on the analysis of global energy-economy-environment scenarios described for the 21st century. We use one baseline scenario and variants thereof to estimate cumulative costs of carbon mitigation as a function of cumulative carbon emission reductions. For our baseline for estimating carbon mitigation cost curves, we use the so-called IIASA F scenario. The F scenario is a high-growth, high-emissions scenario designed specifically to be used as a reference against which to evaluate alternatives. Carbon emissions and energy systems costs in the F scenario are then compared with (reduced) emissions and (higher) costs (including macroeconomic adjustment costs) of alternative scenarios taken from the IIASA scenario database. As a kind of sensitivity analysis of our approach, we also present the results of a scenario involving assumptions on particularly rapid technological progress.     

A Climate Version of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System

Summary The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) has been widely used to simulate relatively short-term atmospheric processes. To perform full-year to multi-year model integrations, a climate version of RAMS (ClimRAMS) has been developed, and is used to simulate diurnal, seasonal, and annual cycles of atmospheric and hydrologic variables and interactions within the central United States during 1989. The model simulation uses a 200-km grid covering the conterminous United States, and a nested, 50-km grid covering the Great Plains and Rocky Mountain states of Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Colorado. The model’s lateral boundary conditions are forced by six-hourly NCEP reanalysis products. ClimRAMS includes simplified precipitation and radiation sub-models, and representations that describe the seasonal evolution of vegetation-related parameters. In addition, ClimRAMS can use all of the general RAMS capabilities, like its more complex radiation sub-models, and explicit cloud and precipitation microphysics schemes. Thus, together with its nonhydrostatic and fully-interactive telescoping-grid capabilities, ClimRAMS can be applied to a wide variety of problems. Because of non-linear interactions between the land surface and atmosphere, simulating the observed climate requires simulating the observed diurnal, synoptic, and seasonal cycles. While previous regional climate modeling studies have demonstrated their ability to simulate the seasonal cycles through comparison with observed monthly-mean temperature and precipitation data sets, this study demonstrates that a regional climate model can also capture observed diurnal and synoptic variability. Observed values of daily precipitation and maximum and minimum screen-height air temperature are used to demonstrate this ability. Received September 27, 1999 Revised December 11, 1999     

气候系统模式发展中的耦合器研制问题

基于"耦合器"框架、采用模块化结构是当今气候系统模式发展的主要技术方向.作者概述了耦合器的基本功能,对目前世界上应用比较广泛的11个耦合器进行了综合评述,重点是美国通用气候模式耦合器和法国的OASIS耦合器,扼要概括了目前较具影响力的三个耦合器发展计划,在此基础上,对耦合器的主要发展态势进行了总结,并结合自身模式发展的需求进行了讨论.     

大气环境影响评价估算模式（SCREEN3）视窗化处理系统

针对大气环境影响评价中估算模式DOS版本,开发了一种Windows简捷处理系统,建立了方便的中文输入界面,并对计算结果进行分析处理。本文对该系统功能进行了详细介绍,并举实例进行应用。该系统的开发和完成,为大气环境影响评价工作提供了方便。     

BCC_CSM模式对热带降水年循环模态的模拟

本文评估了国家气候中心发展的两个不同分辨率海—陆—气—冰多圈层耦合气候系统模式BCC_CSM1.1和BCC_CSM1.1 (m) 对热带降水两个年循环模态——揭示降水冬夏季节差异的季风模态和揭示过渡季节春季和秋季非对称特征的春秋非对称模态的模拟能力,讨论了模拟偏差产生的可能原因。分析结果表明,BCC_CSM1.1和BCC_CSM1.1 (m) 均能合理再现全球年平均降水的基本分布特征,也能较合理再现热带降水年循环模态的基本分布特征,尤其季风模态中降水与环流关于赤道反对称的特征;能够较合理再现春秋非对称模态与热带海洋表面温度(SST)年循环之间的关系。大气温度场、环流场以及热带SST的模拟偏差对降水季风模态有影响;热带SST年循环的偏差对降水春秋非对称模态的模拟偏差有贡献;模式分辨率对降水年循环模态的模拟也有一定影响。对比分析显示,大气模式和陆面模式水平分辨率提高之后模式在某些模拟性能上有所提高,这表现在:BCC_CSM1.1 (m) 模拟的1～12月降水气候态的空间变率更接近观测;热带海表温度年循环总体上更接近观测;模拟的热带降水年循环模态的部分特征更合理。但BCC_CSM1.1 (m) 的模拟结果相对观测仍存在较大偏差,有待进一步改进。     

一个地球系统模式模拟的气候变化对海洋碳循环的影响

使用维多利亚大学的地球系统模式进行模拟,选取1800-2500年间较高的CO₂浓度情景（RCP8.5）,分析由于CO₂增加引起的气候变化对海洋碳循环的影响。当气候敏感度为3.0 K时,相对于无气候变化,到2100年,由于大气CO₂增加造成的气候变化导致海表面温度升高2.7 K,北大西洋深水流量减少4.5 Sv,海洋对人为碳的年吸收减少0.8 Pg C;比较人为溶解无机碳在海洋中的垂直累积分布,发现气候变化对海洋吸收大气CO₂的影响在北大西洋区域最明显。1800-2500年,相对于不考虑气候变化的情景,模式模拟的气候变化导致整个海洋对人为碳的累积吸收总量减少23.1%,其中北大西洋减少32.0%。此外,比较不同气候敏感度（0～4.5 K,间隔为0.5 K）的模拟结果发现,气候敏感度越高,气候变化对海洋吸收CO₂能力的抑制作用越明显。     

An Overview of BCC Climate System Model Development and Application for Climate Change Studies

This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM) and its four component models(atmosphere,land surface,ocean,and sea ice).Two recent versions are described:BCC-CSM1.1 with coarse resolution(approximately 2.8125°×2.8125°) and BCC-CSM1.1(m) with moderate resolution(approximately 1.125°×1.125°).Both versions are fully coupled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation.Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO_2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed.Simulations using these two versions of the BCC-CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase five(CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report(AR5).These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate projections.Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC-CSMl.l and BCC-CSMl.l(m) are presented and validated,with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales.Simulations of climate during the last millennium and projections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed.Both BCC-CSMl.l and BCC-CSMl.l(m) perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models.Preliminary analyses indicate that the higher resolution in BCC-CSM1.1(m) improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC-CSMl.l,particularly on regional scales.     

An Assessment of ENSO Stability in CAMS Climate System Model Simulations

We present an overview of the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) stability simulation using the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences climate system model(CAMS-CSM). The ENSO stability was quantified based on the Bjerknes(BJ) stability index. Generally speaking, CAMS-CSM has the capacity of reasonably representing the BJ index and ENSO-related air–sea feedback processes. The major simulation biases exist in the underestimated thermodynamic damping and thermocline feedbacks. Further diagnostic analysis reveals that the underestimated thermodynamic feedback is due to the underestimation of the shortwave radiation feedback, which arises from the cold bias in mean sea surface temperature(SST) over central–eastern equatorial Pacific(CEEP). The underestimated thermocline feedback is attributed to the weakened mean upwelling and weakened wind–SST feedback(μ_a) in the model simulation compared to observation. We found that the weakened μ_a is also due to the cold mean SST over the CEEP.The study highlights the essential role of reasonably representing the climatological mean state in ENSO simulations.     

The Challenges of Modeling Climate Variability and Change in West Africa

This paper overviews observations and examines modeling issues associated with the mean state, climate variability and climate change in West Africa. The Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite allows for the first time estimates of Unconditional, Convective and Stratiform rain rates in West Africa. The 1998 estimated TRMM rates are compared to long-term observed rain rates and a merged rain data set (CMAP) during 1998. Further, the TRMM estimates are compared to the simulated rain rates from the Community Climate Model Version 3.6. The TRMM Precipitation Radar rain estimates are generally lower than either the long-term observations or the CMAP rates during 1998. Moreover, the TRMM rain estimates show a significant fraction of the total rain (convective + stratiform) is characterized as stratiform rain (30–40%). The CCM3 simulates primarily convective rain and negligible amounts of non-convective rain for West Africa. Furthermore, the TRMM high-resolution rain patterns strongly imply that rain in West Africa occurs on mesoscales in association with mesoscale convective systems (squall lines, mesoscale convective complexes and non-squall tropical clusters). We demonstrate this by briefly examining two mesoscale convective systems during May 1998 with METEOSAT data. Regional climate models may offer the best solution to understanding climate change in West Africa because of their ability to capture mesoscale systems and better their representation of orographic features. Adequate boundary conditions from Global Climate Models are still necessary for regional climate model simulations to successfully reproduce mean climate conditions and provide understanding with respect to future climate change. Observations in West Africa should be maintained or increased for monitoring climate variability and possibility of climate change in West Africa, proper initialization of numerical weather prediction models and the validation of climate models.     

Avoiding Circular Logic in Climate Modeling

The current debate on climate change and its policy implications often hinges on the credibility of global climate models. In considering this topic, we point out the danger of circular logic if climate model inputs (specifically, climate forcings) are determined from the same temperature record against which climate model outputs are tested. We suggest specific guidelines for avoiding this danger.     

谱模式中负地形的处理与东亚副热带气候的模拟

谱模式中负地形对气候模拟有严重干扰。本文重新处理IAP/LASG GOALS模式地形及海陆分布,通过对比新旧地形强迫下数值试验的结果,揭示了原有GOALS/LASG气候模式对西太平洋副高模拟中存在的系统偏差与（30oN,120oE）长江口附近的负地形及纬向地形谷有关。与NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和CMAP综合分析资料比较表明,新的地形方案减弱了负地形效应,使东亚气候,如夏季西太平洋副热带高压及夏季降水的模拟得到明显改善。