基于GAM和GLM模型的西北太平洋秋刀鱼CPUE标准化比较研究

秋刀鱼（Cololabis saira）是中国在西北太平洋海域的重要的捕捞对象之一,单位捕捞努力量渔获量（CPUE） 标准化是开展其资源评估研究的重要内容,许多统计模型被运用到CPUE标准化研究中。本文根据2003-2017年中国大陆在西北太平洋海域的秋刀鱼生产统计资料,结合卫星遥感获得的海洋环境数据如：海表面温度、海表面高度以及海温梯度等,基于广义线性模型（general linear model,GLM） 和广义加性模型（generalized additive model,GAM） 对中国大陆西北太平洋秋刀鱼渔业进行CPUE 标准化,并对两种模型的结果进行了对比分析研究。通过贝叶斯信息准则选择最佳GLM和GAM模型,使用解释偏差和5-fold交差验证来对比两个模型结果。GLM模型的最佳模型对CPUE偏差的解释率为21.57%,GAM的最佳模型对CPUE偏差的解释率为38.95%。通过5-fold交差验证分析发现,GAM模型标准化结果较优于GLM模型,因此,认为GAM模型更适合于西北太平洋秋刀鱼渔业CPUE标准化。     

径流和风对涌潮影响的数值模拟

由于实际江道中地形和江道轮廓等复杂性,难以分析涌潮演变规律。以钱塘江河口为基础,建立了概化河口的水动力数学模型,将复杂问题简单化,通过数学模型计算分析了径流和风况对潮差、涨潮历时、涌潮高度和涌潮传播速度的影响。结果表明,不同河段存在涌潮高度最大值的相应临界流量,越往下游,临界径流量越大;涌潮高度随风向变化规律是"逆风"<"无风"<"顺风";顺风条件下,风速越大,涌潮高度越大。     

黄河口及邻近水域小型鳀鲱鱼类数量分布及其与环境因子的关系

小型鳀鲱鱼类多为浮游生物食性种类;又是多种高营养层次鱼类的饵料生物;作为生态系统中的重要类群;其数量分布对多种生物均具有重要影响。本文根据2013年6月、8月、10月和2014年2月、4月、5月在黄河口及邻近水域进行的渔业资源和环境调查数据;分析了该海域小型鳀鲱鱼类资源数量分布特征;并用广义可加模型研究了其数量分布与时空和环境因子等之间的关系。黄河口及邻近水域小型鳀鲱鱼类相对资源量呈现明显的季节变化;夏、秋季相对资源量明显高于冬、春季。小型鳀鲱鱼类相对资源量具有明显的空间变化;且在不同月份呈现不同的空间分布格局;在4月、5月、6月小型鳀鲱鱼类主要分布于近岸水域;在8月、10月小型鳀鲱鱼类分布外移且范围扩大。GAM分析表明;影响黄河口及邻近水域小型鳀鲱鱼类相对资源量时空分布的主要环境因子包括表层盐度、表层水温、水深和浮游植物丰度等。小型鳀鲱鱼类相对资源量随表层盐度的升高呈现升高的趋势;在盐度达到30时;小型鳀鲱鱼类相对资源量处于最高水平。随表层水温的升高相对资源量有升高趋势;当表层水温达到15℃后;小型鳀鲱鱼类相对资源量增加趋势减缓且丰度较大。小型鳀鲱鱼类相对资源量随浮游植物丰度的增大总体呈现上升趋势;而随水深的变化呈现先降低后升高的趋势。黄河口及邻近水域小型鳀鲱鱼类相对资源量的时空变化与鳀鲱鱼类产卵、索饵和越冬洄游有关;受到季节变化、黄河径流变化以及黄河调水调沙等引起的海洋环境因子变动的影响。     

长江口及邻近海域浮游植物现存量的上下行控制分析

利用2010—2011年度3个季节的调查资料以及广义相加模型(GAM)分析,研究了长江口及邻近海域浮游植物现存量(以叶绿素a浓度表征)的上下行控制作用。调查结果显示,在叶绿素高值区,三航次营养盐含量均比整个海区平均值偏低,且春季呈现三季节最低的磷酸盐(PO4-P)和硅酸盐(SiO3-Si)浓度(平均值分别为0.48和8.96μmol/L)以及最高的氮磷比(DIN/P为43.3),为该海域春季甲藻赤潮频发提供了有利条件。夏季叶绿素高值区的硅氮比(Si/DIN)相对整个调查区较高,而春季和秋季却相近,这与夏季藻华种类主要是硅藻相一致。春、夏两季叶绿素高值区的悬浮物浓度(TSS)在时空比较上均显著低值。浮游动物高值区分布与叶绿素高值区分布虽不完全重合,但有交叉或两者相邻。GAM模型分析结果显示,各环境因子变化对长江口及邻近海域叶绿素变化的贡献可达70%以上,且主要影响因子为盐度和营养盐,而与TSS、浮游动物生物量和温度三因子的直接相关性不显著(p0.05)。受长江冲淡水的影响,盐度与DIN、PO4-P、SiO3-Si、TSS等因子间存在显著的相关关系(p0.001),说明盐度对叶绿素变化的影响可能体现了营养盐和光照条件等因子的作用。上述研究结果表明,在长江口及邻近海域,营养盐的上行效应是浮游植物现存量的主要控制作用,而光照条件和浮游动物生物量与浮游植物现存量虽然在时空分布上存在一定的联系,但非决定性控制因素。     

A Numerical Model of Nonlinear Wave Propagation in Curvilinear Coordinates

For the simulation of the nonlinear wave propagation in coastal areas with complex boundaries,a numerical model is developed in curvilinear coordinates. In the model,the Boussinesq-type equations including the dissipation terms are employed as the governing equations. In the present model,the dependent variables of the transformed equations are the free surface elevation and the utility velocity variables,instead of the usual primitive velocity variables. The introduction of utility velocity variables which...     

基于广义接触模型的离散元方法及其对船体冰载荷的分析

冰载荷是影响船舶结构安全的主要环境载荷,因而确定破冰船的冰载荷特征可用于船体结构设计及船舶安全预警分析。海冰作为典型的脆性材料,可采用单元间具有黏结失效效应的离散元方法模拟其破碎行为。为有效地模拟海冰破碎的渐进过程,采用由局部黏结点组成黏结单元的广义接触模型。为分析该模型中直接决定黏结单元失效的强度参数的影响,采用海冰单轴压缩和三点弯曲试验数值模拟进行分析。通过模型试验确定了失效模型中法向黏结强度、切向黏结强度和Mohr-Coulomb准则中的接触摩擦系数的影响。将该数值模型应用于极地科学考察船"雪龙号"的平整冰区冰载荷分析中,并与船舶整体冰阻力经验公式进行了对比验证。     

东海细菌丰度和生产力的季节变化及与浮游植物生物量和生产力的关系

The East China Sea is a productive marginal sea with a wide continental shelf and plays an important role in absorbing atmospheric carbon dioxide and transferring terrigenous organic matter to the open ocean. To investigate the roles of heterotrophic bacteria in the biogeochemical dynamics in the East China Sea, bacterial biomasses(BB) and productions(BP) were measured in four cruises. The spatial distributions of the BB and the BP were highly season-dependent. Affected by the Changjiang River discharge, the BB and the BP were high in shelf waters(bottom depth not deeper than 50 m) and generally decreased offshore in August 2009. In December 2009 to January 2010, and November to December 2010, the BB and the BP were high in waters with medium bottom depth. The onshore-offshore decreasing trends of the BB and the BP also existed in May–June 2011, when the BB was significantly higher than in other cruises in shelf break waters(bottom depth deeper than 50 m but not deeper than 200 m). The results of generalized additive models(GAM) suggest that the BB increased with the temperature at a range of 8-20°C, increased with the chlorophyll concentration at a range of 0.02–3.00 mg/m3 and then declining, and decreased with the salinity from 28 to 35. The relationship between the temperature and the log-transformed bacterial specific growth rate(SGR) was linear. The estimated temperature coefficient(Q10) of the SGR was similar with that of the phytoplankton growth. The SGR also increased with the chlorophyll concentration. The ratio of the bacterial to phytoplankton production ranged from less than 0.01 to 0.40, being significantly higher in November–December 2010 than in May–June 2011. Calculated from the bacterial production and growth efficiency, the bacterial respiration consumed, on average, 59%, 72% and 23% of the primary production in August 2009, November–December 2010, and May–June 2011, respectively.     

南沙群岛礁概化地形上拍岸浪数值模拟与统计分析

南沙群岛珊瑚岛礁众多,大多数岛礁具有向海坡陡峭、外礁坪比较平缓的特征。将南沙群岛岛礁的迎浪向地形概化为陡坡和缓坡组成的双斜坡,采用FUNWAVE-TVD模式数值模拟概化地形上的波浪,根据模拟的破碎波高分析其拍岸浪特征。对拍岸浪数值模拟结果进行比较分析,向海坡的坡度对拍岸浪影响不大,外礁坪上拍岸浪高随地形坡度增大而略有增大;向海坡和外礁坪交界位置(即坡折点)水深对拍岸浪有比较明显的影响,拍岸浪高随坡折点水深增大而减小;拍岸浪高随入射波高和波周期增大而增大。利用大量的拍岸浪数值模拟数据对国内外5种统计模型进行检验,并且基于拍岸浪数值模拟数据建立了3种南沙群岛岛礁拍岸浪统计模型,计算结果显示这些模型适用性较好。     

Excess pore pressure in Mississippi delta front sediments: Initial report

Abstract

In September 1975, a differential piezometer probe was successfully implanted in the soft seafloor sediments of Block 28, South Pass, Mississippi Delta. The probe sensor is located approximately 6.4 m below the mudline in a water depth of 19 m, and has essentially continuously monitored excess pore pressure (the difference between sediment pore pressure and hydrostatic pressure at that depth) since installation. Excess pore pressure will be monitored until March 1976, when the probe will be recovered.

Immediately after deployment, an excess pore pressure of 54 kPa was recorded. An ambient excess pore pressure of approximately 32 kPa remained after dissipation of that developed during probe installation. Because of the possible presence of gas in the sediments in this area, it is not known with certainty whether the measured excess pressure is pore water pressure, pore gas pressure, or some combination of the two. An excess pore pressure of about 32 ±4 kPa was monitored during Hurricane Eloise and subsequent storms. The exact magnitude and time distribution of these pressure fluctuations is presently being evaluated.     

用广义随底坐标海洋模式研究南海2000年夏季环流

基于2000年8月在南海调查航次得到的水文资料,首次采用广义随底坐标形式的改进POM模式对南海夏季环流进行了数值研究.用正交曲线性水平网格覆盖观测区域,在垂向上对近表海面层次采用近似z坐标,而近底层则为随底坐标.在计算海区实际地形及假设的水平均匀而垂直层化的密度分布下,实施的两个数值计算试验表明,本模式采用的垂直坐标方案比传统的σ坐标方案优越,随底坐标模式因压力梯度项在起伏地形下产生的系统计算误差将变得十分的微小.在南海2000年夏季环流的实际计算中,首先对观测资料进行了60d的诊断计算,然后在诊断已得到的动力场结果基础上,又进行了10d左右的预报运行得到半诊断结果.从计算结果来看,它依赖于参数C_vis与C_dif的选择,特别是参数C_vis,文中取值为C_vis=C_dif=008.比较诊断与半诊断两个计算过程的结果,它们在定性上较为一致,在定量上有些差别.这是因为半诊断计算的方法对密度场作适当的动力调整,使其与地形、风场等更加匹配.在大尺度环流结构不受影响的情况下,尽可能地消除了小尺度噪声,可使计算得到的流场更为清晰.2000年8月南海计算区域环流的最大特点是多涡结构,其中有些反气旋暖涡和气旋式冷涡相间分布.在越南东南海域自表层至1000m水层稳定存在着一个显著的反气旋暖涡,其中心位置在11°51'N,112°07'E(诊断计算),水平尺度约为300km.此暖涡以东存在一个气旋式冷涡,这两个冷、暖涡是研究海区夏季环流的重要环流特征之一.在计算区域东北部夏季环流以反气旋环流系统为主;在计算区域东南部夏季环流以气旋系统为主;南海夏季环流分布,明显出现西部强化特征.     

异常北折台风“洛坦”与异常西折台风“奥玛”路径的对比及预报

选取在台湾岛附近发生异常北折的台风“洛坦”和异常西折的台风“奥玛”, 对其环流形势进行对比分析, 之后将全风场分解为气候场和瞬时扰动风场, 应用扩展的β-平流模型对“洛坦”和“奥玛”的异常偏折路径进行预报尝试。结果表明: 1)两个台风的500hPa全风场分析表明, 副高及槽前西南气流为“奥玛”异常北折的主要影响系统; 而“洛坦”北侧的大陆高压与副高合并加强有利于其西折。2)扰动风场的分布表明, 北折“洛坦”南侧的西南风逐渐增大, 东侧的东南风逐渐转变为南风, 在异常偏折时刻形成一条向北的“输送带”利于其北折; 西折“奥玛”在其异常偏折过程中其北侧一直维持着一个反气旋性环流, 向西输送分量逐渐增加, 利于其西折。3)利用扩展的β-平流模型对两个台风路径进行预报, 发现在综合考虑气候态和扰动场时, “洛坦”的路径预报效果最好, 而考虑瞬时扰动场时“奥玛”的西折预报效果最好。     

Barriola-Vilenkin黑洞Dirac场的广义Stefan-Boltzmann定律

利用薄膜模型研究Barriola-Vilenkin黑洞的热辐射,得到了黑洞的热辐射满足广义Stefan-Boltzmann定律的结论,导出的广义Stefan-Boltzmann系数不再是一个恒量,当截断距离以及薄膜厚度取定后,它是一个与黑洞视界附近的时空度规以及辐射粒子的径向平均泻流速率有关的比例系数.得到的Barriola-Vilenkin黑洞视界附近Dirac场的辐射能通量与薄层膜内辐射粒子的径向平均泻流速率成正比,与黑洞的质量平方成反比.     

长山列岛邻近海域褐牙鲆资源丰度的时空分布及其与环境因子的关系

本文根据2016?2017年在长山列岛邻近海域开展的渔业资源和环境季度调查数据,利用两阶段广义可加模型分析了该海域褐牙鲆资源丰度的时空分布及其与相关因子之间的关系.结果表明,长山列岛邻近海域褐牙鲆资源丰度具有明显的季节变化,春、秋季资源丰度高于冬、夏季;褐牙鲆春、秋季主要分布在120.5°～122.5°E水域,夏、冬季...     

海州湾及邻近海域口虾蛄栖息地适宜性建模的环境变量优化

Habitat suitability index(HSI) models have been widely used to analyze the relationship between species abundance and environmental factors, and ultimately inform management of marine species. The response of species abundance to each environmental variable is different and habitat requirements may change over life history stages and seasons. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the optimal combination of environmental variables in HSI modelling. In this study, generalized additive models(GAMs) were used to determine which environmental variables to be included in the HSI models. Significant variables were retained and weighted in the HSI model according to their relative contribution(%) to the total deviation explained by the boosted regression tree(BRT). The HSI models were applied to evaluate the habitat suitability of mantis shrimp Oratosquilla oratoria in the Haizhou Bay and adjacent areas in 2011 and 2013–2017. Ontogenetic and seasonal variations in HSI models of mantis shrimp were also examined. Among the four models(non-optimized model, BRT informed HSI model,GAM informed HSI model, and both BRT and GAM informed HSI model), both BRT and GAM informed HSI model showed the best performance. Four environmental variables(bottom temperature, depth, distance offshore and sediment type) were selected in the HSI models for four groups(spring-juvenile, spring-adult, falljuvenile and fall-adult) of mantis shrimp. The distribution of habitat suitability showed similar patterns between juveniles and adults, but obvious seasonal variations were observed. This study suggests that the process of optimizing environmental variables in HSI models improves the performance of HSI models, and this optimization strategy could be extended to other marine organisms to enhance the understanding of the habitat suitability of target species.     

Size-dependent distribution, abundance and diurnal rhythmicity patterns in the short-spined sea urchin Anthocidaris crassispina

Little is known about the ecology and behaviour of the sea urchin Anthocidaris crassispina, particularly in relation to changes in its surrounding environment. In Cape d'Aguilar Marine Reserve, Hong Kong Island, urchins ranged from a high abundance of 16 ind m⁻² on steeply inclined rocky outcrops, which were exposed to strong onshore waves surges, to a complete absence on gravel and sandy substrata. Using a generalized additive model (GAM) the abundance and spatial extent of A. crassispina was predicted within the Bay. Predictions were strongly associated with the surface complexity of the habitat. On steep rocky slopes A. crassispina exhibited a size-dependent gradient where the mean test diameter increased in a down-shore direction as water depth increased. Since the mechanisms for maintaining this size-dependent distribution are unknown, a translocation experiment was conducted on two different size-classes of urchins. Following translocation, both large and small size-classes of A. crassispina were able to re-establish their original size-gradient within 3–5 days. Size-dependent distribution in A. crassispina may indicate resource partitioning, although the influence of hydrodynamic conditions on test size may also mediate this segregation. Anthocidaris crassispina was predominately nocturnal with almost 100% of the population moving between dusk and dawn. Locomotory activity patterns of urchins were strongly correlated with changes in seawater depth and changes in the direction of water-flow during tidal cycles. Anthocidaris crassispina exhibited an endogenously controlled locomotory activity pattern that was synchronized with changes in the tidal cycle, and which remained free-running for 13 h under constant laboratory conditions.     

概化弯道段潮汐模型系统设计与制作

根据典型弯曲型河口段的宽浅边界形态、水力条件及潮汐特征,依据相似理论确定模型的基本几何及水力参数.分析了河工模型的最大允许变率,借助重力和紊动阻力相似准则确定模型的各项控制比尺.模型由上游延伸段、河道试验段与下游潮汐池组成.采用w形波纹凹槽方式加糙,使模型糙率达到了试验要求.实测资料验证显示了概化模型的合理性.     

基于空间自相关的阿根廷滑柔鱼CPUE标准化研究

CPUE的观测往往不是独立的,而是存在空间相关性的。但是,大多数的CPUE标准化方法通常都假设名义CPUE在空间上是相互独立的。为此,本研究以西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼为例,采用2000-2014年1-5月中国大陆鱿钓生产统计数据以及对应的海表温度和叶绿素浓度数据,选择广义线性模型（general linear model,GLM）为基础模型,将空间自相关加入到GLM中,比较标准GLM和4种加入空间自相关的空间GLM的CPUE标准化。根据最小信息准则（Akaike Information Criterion,AIC）及贝叶斯信息准则（Bayesian Information Criterion,BIC）,空间自相关的GLM的CPUE标准化结果优于标准GLM,其中指数模型的CPUE标准化结果最佳。同时,标准GLM与空间自相关的GLM相比,存在精确度过高估计的问题。因此,在CPUE标准化中,应充分考虑空间自相关这一因素。     

广义岭估计的谱分解式和Liu型广义岭估计

首先从多参数岭估计,即广义岭参数人手,给出其谱分解形式。然后就岭估计会使估值偏差增大的问题,在Liu估计的基础上,推导出一种新的有偏估计方法——Liu型广义岭估计,并给出该方法的模型、解式。Liu型广义岭估计可以在尽量不增大偏差的同时改进病态性,获得更好的估值。最后通过算例进行了比较分析。     

水温和余氯对黑棘鲷仔鱼存活的影响

采用静水试验法, 模拟研究了电厂温排水排放导致的海水升温和余氯残留对黑棘鲷(Acanthopagrus schlegelii)存活的影响。试验水温设4 个梯度: 18、22、26、30℃, 余氯设6 个浓度水平:0.025、0.05、0.1、0.2、0.4、0.8 mg/L, 同时以过滤海水为对照组, 每一个水温条件下的余氯浓度均设3 个平行样本, 取黑棘鲷初孵仔鱼进行试验, 试验共进行96 h 观测。试验结果表明, 当水温升高至30℃时, 对仔鱼的存活会产生显著性影响, 24 h 的死亡率为23.4%, 48 h 的死亡率骤升至98%, 而18、22、26℃ 3 组96 h 时死亡率均未超过10%。24 h 时4 种水温条件下余氯对黑棘鲷仔鱼的LC50 值分别为0.816、0.460、0.433、0.319 mg/L, 可见水温升高会增强余氯对仔鱼的致死效应, 而随着时间延长, 余氯对仔鱼的LC50 值进一步降低, 至96 h, 其值分别为0.242、0.211、0.140、<0.025 mg/L。广义相加模型分析结果显示, 水温由26℃升至30℃时, 或当余氯浓度高于0.2 mg/L 时, 或曝露时间超过48 h, 均会对黑棘鲷初孵仔鱼产生明显致死效应, 双因素方差分析结果显示, 水温、余氯、曝露时间对仔鱼死亡率具有显著性影响(P< 0.05), 且水温-余氯、水温-曝露时间之间具有显著性交互作用(P< 0.05)。     

山东南部近海秋季长蛇鲻相对资源量的分布及其影响因素

为探究长蛇鲻(Saurida elongate)的生态习性和分布规律,并为长蛇鲻资源的合理利用与养护提供科学依据,本文根据2016年秋季在山东南部近海进行的渔业资源与环境调查数据,分析了该海域长蛇鲻的分布特征,研究长蛇鲻成体、幼体的分布差异,并利用广义可加模型(GAM)研究其分布与生物因子和环境因子的关系。结果表明,长蛇鲻成体与幼体的分布存在差异,成体分布范围广,幼体主要分布在30 m等深线及以浅水域。GAM模型的结果表明,饵料生物、底层水温、水深和底层盐度是影响长蛇鲻相对资源量分布的主要因子。成体、幼体的分布与影响因子的关系差异极显著(P<0.01)。长蛇鲻成体的相对资源量随饵料生物和底层水温的增加表现为先上升后下降的趋势,而幼体呈现一致上升趋势;成体和幼体的相对资源量随水深增加均呈下降趋势;幼体相对资源量随底层盐度增加有明显上升趋势,而盐度对成体的影响不显著。本研究认为山东南部近海是长蛇鲻的重要栖息地,水温和盐度是成体和幼体分布差异的可能原因。