Have there been recent changes in climate? Ask the fish

It is generally accepted that a climate shift occurred about 1977 that affected the dynamics of North Pacific marine ecosystems. Agreement on the possibility of further climate shifts in 1989 and the late 1990s is yet to be achieved. However, there have been changes in the dynamics of key commercial fishes that indicate changes in their environment occurred in the early 1990s, and possibly around 1998. One method of measuring climate change is to observe the dynamics of species that could be affected.Several studies have described decadal-scale changes in North Pacific climate–ocean conditions. Generally, these studies focus on a single index. Using principal components analysis, we use a composite index based on three aspects of climate ocean conditions: the Aleutian Low Pressure Index, the Pacific Atmospheric Circulation Index and the Pacific Interdecadal Oscillation Index. We link this composite index (Atmospheric Forcing Index) to decadal-scale changes in British Columbia salmon and other fish populations. Around 1989 there was a change from intense Aleutian Lows (above average south-westerly and westerly circulation patterns and warming of coastal sea surface temperatures) to average Aleutian Lows (less frequent south-westerly and westerly circulation and slightly cooler coastal sea surface temperatures in winter). These climate–ocean changes were associated with changes in the abundance and ocean survival of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), distribution and spawning behaviour of hake (Merluccius productus) and sardines (Sardinops sagax) and in recruitment patterns of several groundfish species.     

Environmental variability and chum salmon production at the northwestern Pacific Ocean

Chum salmon, Oncorhynchus keta, are distributed widely in the North Pacific Ocean, and about 76% of chum salmon were caught from Russian, Japanese, and Korean waters of the northwestern Pacific Ocean during the last 20 years. Although it has been speculated that the recent increase in salmon production was aided by not only the enhancement program that targeted chum salmon but also by favorable ocean conditions since the early 1990s, the ecological processes for determining the yield of salmon have not been clearly delineated. To investigate the relationship between yield and the controlling factors for ocean survival of chum salmon, a time-series of climate indices, seawater temperature, and prey availability in the northwestern Pacific including Korean waters were analyzed using some statistical tools. The results of cross-correlation function (CCF) analysis and cumulative sum (CuSum) of anomalies indicated that there were significant environmental changes in the North Pacific during the last century, and each regional stock of chum salmon responded to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) differently: for Russian stock, the correlations between PDO index and catch were significantly negative with a time-lag of 0 and 1 years; for Japanese stock, significantly positive with a timelag of 0–2 years; and for Korean stock, positive but no significant correlation. The results of statistical analyses with Korean chum salmon also revealed that a coastal seawater temperature over 14°C and the return rate of spawning adults to the natal river produced a significant negative correlation.     

Archeological evidence of Pacific salmon distribution in northern Japan and implications for future global warming

Archeological evidence of Pacific salmon in Hokkaido is reviewed and compared with results from western North America. Salmon remains have been found at 24 sites in Hokkaido from the Early Jomon Period to the Ainu Period (6000–100 years ago). Fish remains at three archeological sites in the Kushiro River basin indicated that Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) were distributed and utilized from 6000 years ago. The present Kushiro Wetland was formerly covered with seawater and called the Paleo Kushiro Bay 5000–6000 years ago. Based on the molluscan fossil fauna, seawater temperature at Paleo Kushiro Bay was about 5°C warmer than at present. Warmer conditions for salmon in Kushiro 5000–6000 years ago corresponded with the poor conditions for salmon in the Columbia River basin 6000–7000 years ago. If the future global warming is similar to the conditions that prevailed 5000–6000 years ago, the southern limit of salmon distribution will shift northwards and the salmon production will decrease. However, they will not disappear from either Hokkaido or southwestern North America.     

Management of the commons for biodiversity: lessons from the North Pacific

The North Pacific has the world's largest groundfish fisheries, with a value in excess of $1 billion annually. The North Pacific also is home to the largest population of Steller sea lions (SSL), an ancient species that is now endangered. Decline of the western stock of SSL in the 1970–1990s coincided with the US nationalization and exponential growth in the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands groundfish fishery.The article treats five aspects of the competition between the fishery and protection of the endangered species. First, we analyze competition of interests in the use, management, and preservation of the North Pacific commons, including offshore and near-shore fisheries, environmental organizations, governments (federal, state, and local), and the scientific community. Second, the article compares and contrasts provisions of the National Environmental Policy Act, the Marine Mammal Protection Act, the Endangered Species Act, and the Magnuson–Stevens Act (as amended in 1996 by the Sustainable Fisheries Act).Third, we examine the regulatory environment with a focus on the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and its relationship to the North Pacific Fishery Management Council. We illustrate how NMFS establishes fishery management plans and the methods, such as crafting biological opinions and environmental-impact-statements, it uses to resolve conflicts. Fourth, we investigate how the dual pressures on the agency—to increase fisheries production for the benefit of the industry and to preserve endangered marine species—have affected its culture (behavioral norms and operational codes). Then, the article explains agency changes in terms of crises, competition among affected interests, and development of new scientific knowledge.The article concludes by drawing lessons from the SSL controversy in the North Pacific which may pertain to national and global biodiversity conflicts. These concern the role of law in biodiversity protection, the role of science, and agency capacity for change.     

Stable isotope analysis of Pacific salmon: insight into trophic status and oceanographic conditions over the last 30 years

Food web interactions and the response of Pacific salmon to physical processes in the North Pacific Ocean over interannual and interdecadal timescales are explored using naturally occurring stable isotope ratios of carbon (¹³C/¹²C) and nitrogen (¹⁵N/¹⁴N). Stable isotope analyses of five species of sexually mature North Pacific salmon from Alaska (Oncorhynchus spp.) cluster into three groups: chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) have the highest values, followed by coho (O. kisutch), with chum (O. keta), sockeye (O. nerka), and pink (O. gorbuscha) together having the lowest values. Although detailed isotopic data on salmon prey are lacking, there are limited data on relevant prey items from areas in which they are found in high abundance. These data suggest that the characteristics of the sockeye, pink and chum we have analyzed are compatible with their diets including open ocean squid and zooplankton, which are in general agreement with stomach content analyses. Isotope relationships between muscle and scale show consistent relationships for both δ¹³C (R²=0.98) and δ¹⁵N (R²=0.90). Thus, scales, which have been routinely archived for many systems, can be used for retrospective analyses. Archived sockeye salmon scales spanning 1966–1999 from Red Lake, Kodiak Island, Alaska were analyzed for their stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen. The δ¹⁵N record displays a decreasing trend of ˜3‰ from 1969–1982 and an increasing trend of ˜3‰ from 1982–1992, while the variations in δ¹³C are relatively minor. These trends may result from factors such as shifts in trophic level of feeding and/or feeding location, or may originate at the base of the food web via changes in processes such as nutrient cycling or primary productivity. Detailed studies on prey isotopic variability and its controls are needed to distinguish between these factors, and thus to improve the use of stable isotope analysis as a tool to learn more about present and past ecosystem change in the North Pacific and its relation to climatic change.     

Genetic stock identification of immature chum salmon (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Oncorhynchus keta</Emphasis>) in the western Bering Sea, 2004

Genetic stock identification studies have been widely applied to Pacific salmon species to estimate stock composition of complex mixed-stock fisheries. In a September-October 2004 survey, 739 chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) specimens were collected from 23 stations in the western Bering Sea. We determined the genetic stock composition of immature chum salmon based on the previous mitochondria DNA baseline. Each regional estimate was computed based on the conditional maximum likelihood method using 1,000 bootstrap resampling and then pooled to the major regional groups: Korea - Japan - Primorie (KJP) / Russia (RU) / Northwest Alaska (NWA) / Alaska Peninsula - Southcentral Alaska - Southeast Alaska - British Columbia - Washington (ONA). The stock composition of immature chum salmon in the western Bering Sea was a mix of 0.424 KJP, 0.421 RU, 0.116 NWA, and 0.039 ONA stocks. During the study period, the contribution of Asian chum salmon stocks gradually changed from RU to KJP stock. In addition, North American populations from NWA and ONA were small but present near the vicinity of the Russian coast and the Commander Islands, suggesting that the study areas in the western Bering Sea were an important migration route for Pacific chum salmon originating both from Asia and North America during the months of September and October. These results make it possible to better understand the chum salmon stock composition of the mixed-stock fisheries in the western Bering Sea and the stock-specific distribution pattern of chum salmon on the high-seas.     

The human dimensions of marine mammal management in a time of rapid change: comparing policies in Canada,Finland and the United States

Arctic coastal populations share a close relationship with their environment consisting of linkages among communities, landscapes and seascapes, and the social institutions developed to sustain the system. This cultural–biogeophysical dynamic is termed throughout the section as a social–ecological system (SES). Marine mammals constitute a large portion of the subsistence diet for these communities, and as such represent key ecological services provided by the system. At the same time, marine mammals have gained iconic status as symbols for climate change in the North. A tension results between the demands of balancing on one hand good policy optics consistent with national and international norms and, on the other hand, flexible and adaptive institutions able to take on the task of managing resources in a dynamic, changing North. This tension and associated policy solutions such as co-management are explored in a series of papers focusing on marine mammal management dilemmas and policy practices around the circumpolar North. This introduction communicates the problem context and describes the five papers making up this special section. A guiding premise to this work is that new international pressures to implement moratoria on marine mammal hunting in the North ignore critical human dimensions of marine mammal management. Such policy proposals are unlikely to succeed in areas that require collaboration across scales. Simultaneously, new local-scale participation in multi-level management regimes holds promise for creating more resilient marine mammal SESs.     

Zinc speciation in the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean

Measurements of zinc and zinc complexation by natural organic ligands in the northeastern part of the Atlantic Ocean were made using cathodic stripping voltammetry with ligand competition. Total zinc concentrations ranged from 0.3 nM in surface waters to 2 nM at 2000 m for open-ocean waters, whilst nearer the English coast, zinc concentrations reached 1.5 nM in the upper water column. In open-ocean waters zinc speciation was dominated by complexation to a natural organic ligand with conditional stability constant (log K_ZnL′) ranging between 10.0 and 10.5 and with ligand concentrations ranging between 0.4 and 2.5 nM. The ligand was found to be uniformly distributed throughout the water column even though zinc concentrations increased with depth. Organic ligand concentrations measured in this study are similar to those published for the North Pacific. However the log K_ZnL′ values for the North Atlantic are almost and order of magnitude lower than those reported by Bruland [Bruland, K.W., 1989. Complexation of zinc by natural organic-ligands in the central North Pacific. Limnol. Oceanogr., 34, 269–285.] using anodic stripping voltammetry for the North Pacific. Free zinc ion concentrations were low in open-ocean waters (6–20 pM) but are not low enough to limit growth of a typical oceanic species of phytoplankton.     

The ecology, distribution, and abundance of midwater fishes of the Subarctic Pacific gyres

We describe the distribution and abundance of the midwater fish community, between 200 m and 500 m, in the North Pacific. The main area of interest was the Subarctic Pacific gyres, but we include species from the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk. There were 196 species identified in each gyre, 38 of which were common to both gyres. The most abundant species belong to the family Myctophidae and the most ecologically important myctophid probably is Stenobrachius leucopsarus. This species could have a biomass of approximately 21 million tonnes (t) in the Subarctic Pacific (including the Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk). S. leucopsarus is a small (about 8 cm maximum length) fish that lives up to 7 years. It is prey for a variety of other fishes, birds and mammals and may migrate into the mixing layer each evening where it feeds mainly on euphausiids and copepods.The total abundance of midwater fishes appears to be large relative to total catches of other fish in the same areas. The vertical migratory behaviour of some of the residents provides a mechanism to transfer production out of the mixing layer. The movement into the surface layer by some fishes at night indicates that dynamic changes occur in the midwater community between the day and night, and the ecosystem dynamics in the surface layer are different in the day and in the night. This behaviour and the huge biomass relative to commercial species means that the dynamics of fish communities in the Subarctic Pacific are complex and need to be studied over a 24 hour period. The large biomasses may eventually attract commercial interest, thus it is important to establish international, cooperative programs now to learn more about the dynamics of these populations and the relationships with other species.     

Seasonal and areal variation of continental aerosol in the surface air over the western North Pacific region

Weekly aerosol samples were collected for two years from 1981 at six stations in the western North Pacific region. The samples were analyzed for aluminum to determine the mineral dust concentration in the air. By combining our data with observations in the central and eastern North Pacific by a US research group, the following results and conclusions have been obtained. Spring peaks in atmospheric mineral dust were observed at all the stations accompanied byKosa episodes (hazes due to mineral dust of Chinese origin). The spring peaks, however, varied from year to year. The mean concentration of mineral dust depends not only on the distance from the Asian coast but also on the latitude of the sampling station. The half-decrease distance of the atmospheric mineral dust turned out to be 500–600 km for all latitudes in the western North Pacific. This indicates that the rate of deposition of mineral dust in the western North Pacific is much larger than that in the central and eastern North Pacific.     

An East-West Comparison of the Transition Zone Coastal Pelagic Nekton of the North Pacific Ocean

During the 1980s and 1990s, scientific research cruises were conducted in both the eastern and western boundary regions of the North Pacific Ocean. The main purpose of these cruises was to examine the abundance and distribution patterns of juvenile salmon in coastal waters. These studies created one of the most extensive databases ever collected on the species composition of coastal Transition Zone epipelagic nekton in the North Pacific Ocean. Catch data from two purse seine and two surface trawl surveys (one each from off northern Japan and eastern Russia and off the West Coast of the U.S.) were examined using multivariate techniques to analyze the community structure of nektonic cephalopods, elasmobranchs, and teleosts in the coastal zone during the summer and autumn months. Juvenile salmonids are generally among the most common species caught, but in terms of overall abundance, other potential competitors with juvenile salmon, such as small squids and clupeoid fishes predominated the catches. Species diversity and dominance varied among areas and gear types. Distinct assemblages were found in each area, but the two regions had closely related species occupying similar ecological positions in each habitat. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Pacific decadal oscillation and European climatic anomalies

By using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets for 1951–2001, we study the characteristics of Pacific cyclones. It is shown that the northeast-southwest direction is predominant in the displacements of cyclones in the North Pacific. We study the variability of the field of surface atmospheric pressure in different phases of the Pacific decadal oscillation characterizing the temperature anomalies on the surface of the ocean in the region bounded by 20 and 60°N. It is shown that the decadal variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation supported by the large-scale anomalies of the Pacific decadal oscillation is the most important cause of natural decadal oscillations in the European region. We study and evaluate the regional response to the Pacific decadal oscillation by using, as an example, the analysis of variations of the discharge of European rivers. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 13–23, July–August, 2007.     

The Northern Oscillation Index (NOI): a new climate index for the northeast Pacific

We introduce the Northern Oscillation Index (NOI), a new index of climate variability based on the difference in sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies at the North Pacific High (NPH) in the northeast Pacific (NEP) and near Darwin, Australia, in a climatologically low SLP region. These two locations are centers of action for the north Pacific Hadley–Walker atmospheric circulation. SLPs at these sites have a strong negative correlation that reflects their roles in this circulation. Global atmospheric circulation anomaly patterns indicate that the NEP is linked to the western tropical Pacific and southeast Asia via atmospheric wave trains associated with fluctuations in this circulation. Thus the NOI represents a wide range of tropical and extratropical climate events impacting the north Pacific on intraseasonal, interannual, and decadal scales. The NOI is roughly the north Pacific equivalent of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), but extends between the tropics and extratropics. Because the NOI is partially based in the NEP, it provides a more direct indication of the mechanisms by which global-scale climate events affect the north Pacific and North America.The NOI is dominated by interannual variations associated with El Niño and La Niña (EN/LN) events. Large positive (negative) index values are usually associated with LN (EN) and negative (positive) upper ocean temperature anomalies in the NEP, particularly along the North American west coast. The NOI and SOI are highly correlated, but are clearly different in several respects. EN/LN variations tend to be represented by larger swings in the NOI. Forty percent of the interannual moderate and strong interannual NOI events are seen by the SOI as events that are either weak or opposite in sign. The NOI appears to be a better index of environmental variability in the NEP than the SOI, and NPH SLP alone, suggesting the NOI is more effective at incorporating the influences of regional and remotely teleconnected climate processes.The NOI contains alternating decadal-scale periods dominated by positive and negative values, suggesting substantial climate shifts on a roughly 14-year ‘cycle’. The NOI was predominantly positive prior to 1965, during 1970–1976 and 1984–1991, and since 1998. Negative values predominated in 1965–1970, 1977–1983, and 1991–1998. In the NEP, interannual and decadal-scale negative NOI periods (e.g. EN events) are generally associated with weaker trade winds, weaker coastal upwelling-favorable winds, warmer upper ocean temperatures, lower Pacific Northwest salmon catch, higher Alaska salmon catch, and generally decreased macrozooplankton biomass off southern California. The opposite physical and biological patterns generally occur when the index is positive. Simultaneous correlations of the NOI with north Pacific upper ocean temperature anomalies are greatest during the boreal winter and spring. Lagged correlations of the winter and spring NOI with subsequent upper ocean temperatures are high for several seasons. The relationships between the NOI and atmospheric and physical and biological oceanic anomalies in the NEP indicate this index is a useful diagnostic of climate change in the NEP, and suggest mechanisms linking variations in the physical environment to marine resources on interannual to decadal climate scales. The NOI time series is available online at: http://www.pfeg.noaa.gov.     

Variability in scale growth rates of chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) in relation to climate changes in the late 1980s

Fish scales were used to investigate the interannual variability in chum salmon growth rates at specific ages in relation to climatic/environmental changes during the 1980s–1990s. Scales were obtained from adult salmon returning to the east coast of Korea between 1984 and 1998. Assuming proportionality between scale size increments and fish length, distances between scale annuli were regarded as the growth conditions in different habitat areas with respect to the life stages of chum salmon. In estuarine and coastal areas, growth rates of fingerling salmon were higher in the 1990s than in the 1980s. Zooplankton abundance off the east coast of Korea increased after the late 1980s, which may have provided favorable growth conditions for young salmon in the 1990s. Growth of juvenile chum salmon during the first summer (Okhotsk Sea) was relatively stable, and neither SST nor zooplankton biomass fluctuated significantly during the study period. However, in the Bering Sea, salmon growth rates between age-2 and age-4 (i.e. ocean-phase immature salmon) were higher in the 1980s than in the 1990s. Variability in salmon growth in the Bering Sea was correlated to zooplankton biomass. These results suggest that the climate regime shift of 1988/1989 in the subarctic North Pacific affected salmon growth mediated by changes of zooplankton biomass, revealing a bottom-up process.     

Pacific Basin climate variability and patterns of Northeast Pacific marine fish production

A review of oceanographic and climate data from the North Pacific and Bering Sea has revealed climate events that occur on two principal time scales: a) 2–7 years (i.e. El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO), and b) inter-decadal (i.e. Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO). The timing of ENSO events and of related oceanic changes at higher latitudes were examined. The frequency of ENSO was high in the 1980s. Evidence of ENSO forcing on ocean conditions in the North Pacific (Niño North conditions) showed ENSO events were more frequently observed along the West Coast than in the western Gulf of Alaska (GOA) and Eastern Bering Sea (EBS). Time series of catches for 30 region/species groups of salmon, and recruitment data for 29 groundfish and 5 non-salmonid pelagic species, were examined for evidence of a statistical relationship with any of the time scales associated with Niño North conditions or the PDO. Some flatfish stocks exhibited high autocorrelation in recruitment coupled with a significant step in recruitment in 1977 suggesting a relationship between PDO forcing and recruitment success. Five of the dominant gadid stocks (EBS and GOA Pacific cod, Pacific hake and EBS and GOA walleye pollock) exhibited low autocorrelation in recruitment. Of these, Pacific hake, GOA walleye pollock and GOA Pacific cod exhibited significantly higher incidence of strong year classes in years associated with Niño North conditions. These findings suggest that the PDO and ENSO may play an important role in governing year-class strength of several Northeast Pacific marine fish stocks.     

西北太平洋气候和海洋环境变化对柔鱼空间分布的影响

Ommastrephes bartramii is an ecologically dependent species and has great commercial values among the AsiaPacific countries. This squid widely inhabits the North Pacific, one of the most dynamic marine environments in the world, subjecting to multi-scale climatic events such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). Commercial fishery data from the Chinese squid-jigging fleets during 1995–2011 are used to evaluate the influences of climatic and oceanic environmental variations on the spatial distribution of O. bartramii. Significant interannual and seasonal variability are observed in the longitudinal and latitudinal gravity centers(LONG and LATG) of fishing ground of O. bartramii. The LATG mainly occurred in the waters with the suitable ranges of environmental variables estimated by the generalized additive model. The apparent north-south spatial shift in the annual LATG appeares to be associated with the PDO phenomenon and is closely related to the sea surface temperature(SST)and sea surface height(SSH) on the fishing ground, whereas the mixed layer depth(MLD) might contribute limited impacts to the distribution pattern of O. bartramii. The warm PDO regimes tend to yield cold SST and low SSH, resulting in a southward shift of LATG, while the cold PDO phases provid warm SST and elevated SSH,resulting in a northward shift of LATG. A regression model is developed to help understand and predict the fishing ground distributions of O. bartramii and improve the fishery management.     

Stock identification and life history interpretation using trace element signatures in salmon otoliths

Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) in the North Pacific Ocean are anadromous fish, and spend most of their life in the sea until spawning in natal streams. To identify the stock and habitat characteristics of chum salmon, the composition of chemical elements (Ca, Mn, Sr, Zn, and Ba) in otolith was examined using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS). Two main types of analytical work have been carried out; discrete spot analysis and line scan analysis of otolith sections. Salmon otoliths were obtained from the eastern (Canada and USA) and western (Japan and Korea) North Pacific during 1997–1999 spawning seasons. Spot analysis of otolith cores demonstrated significant differences in the element concentration among countries (p = 0.003). Line scanning from the core to the margin showed that Sr concentrations were elevated at the core of the otoliths, decreased during the freshwater stage, increased suddenly at a certain point, and oscillated periodically towards the margin matching with year-ring. The elevated Sr concentration at the core may reflect the maternal contribution to the egg, and the oscillations toward the margin may reflect salinity gradients between onshore/offshore or north/south migrations. The Zn profiles also oscillated and corresponded to the annual ring of the otolith. However, the profiles of Sr and Zn oscillated oppositely after salmon migrated to saline water and the Zn uptake declined toward the rim of the otolith while Sr uptake increased.     

Policy implications of protected area discourse in the Pacific islands

The words taboo, conservation area, reserve, protected area, and marine protected area (MPA) are used to refer to the community-based closures of the Pacific islands. Diverse definition and interpretation have led to confusion and debate, particularly as the Pacific islands engage with international protected area policies and partners. This case study from the Republic of Vanuatu traces the introduction, evolution and contemporary implementation of protected area typology. Higher-level debates often center more on symbolism and post-colonial ideologies than on the operational specifics of closure regimes. Island communities, indifferent to ongoing national-level discussions, are continuously adapting closures to contemporary contexts, utilizing indigenous and non-indigenous terms to differentiate among them. Protected area policy in the Pacific islands could be improved by recognizing the diverse closure typology of the region and building on the discursive status quo that is emerging at the community level. Future policy will be enhanced if it embraces the inherent flexibility and heterogeneity of Pacific island custom and culture to manage natural resources.