Interrelation between QBO and 11-year solar cycle effects in total column ozone over Europe

On the basis of total column ozone (TO) data obtained in the period of 1957–2007 at 10 ground-based European stations, characterized by long and highly reliable measurements, the effects of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and 11-year solar cycle (11-year SC), manifesting in TO are investigated. The results of comparative analysis of seasonal differences between different QBO/solar extremes convincingly demonstrate interrelation between the QBO and 11-year SC effects. It is shown that solar activity modulates the phase of the QBO effect so that the quasi-biennial TO signals during solar maximum and solar minimum are nearly in opposite phase. It is also demonstrated that isolated under permanent conditions of solar minimum or solar maximum the QBO effects in TO have the time scale of about 20 months. Solar modulation of the QBO effect makes the QBO a conductor of the solar cycle impact on TO over Europe. The mechanism of influence of the 11-year SC on the QBO and probably includes its impact on the QBO amplitude in the equatorial lower stratosphere, mainly through weakening of the equatorial easterlies during solar maximum.     

Influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the effects of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation, manifesting in the extratropical northern atmosphere

Using the longest and most reliable ozonesonde data sets grouped for four regions (Japan, Europe, as well as temperate and polar latitudes of Canada) the comparative analysis of regional responses of ozone, temperature, horizontal wind, tropopause and surface pressure on the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO effects), manifesting in opposite phases of the 11-year solar cycle (11-yr SC) was carried out. The impact of solar cycle is found to be the strongest at the Canadian Arctic, near one of two climatological centres of polar vortex, where in solar maximum conditions the QBO signals in ozone and temperature have much larger amplitudes, embrace greater range of heights, and are maximized much higher than those in solar minimum conditions. The strengthening of the temperature QBO effect during solar maxima can explain why correlation between the 11-yr SC and polar winter stratospheric temperature is reversed in the opposite QBO phases. At the border of polar vortex the 11-yr SC also modulates the QBO effect in zonal wind, strengthening the quasi-biennial modulation of polar vortex during solar maxima that is associated with strong negative correlation between stratospheric QBO signals in zonal wind and temperature. Above Japan the QBO effects of ozone, temperature, and zonal wind, manifesting in solar maxima reveal the downward phase dynamics, reminding similar feature of the zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere. Above Europe, the QBO effects in solar maxima reveal more similarity with those above Japan, while in solar minima with the effects obtained at the Canadian middle-latitude stations. It is revealed that the 11-yr SC influences regional QBO effects in tropopause height, tropopause temperature and surface pressure. The influence most distinctly manifest itself in tropopause characteristics above Japan. The results of the accompanying analysis of the QBO reference time series testify that in the period of 1965–2006 above 50-hPa level the duration of the QBO cycle in solar maxima is 1–3 months longer than in solar minima. The differences are more distinct at higher levels, but they are diminished with lengthening of the period.     

Influence of solar activity on winter temperatures: New climatological evidence

Winter temperatures in the Netherlands for the period 1634–1977 (344 years) have been analysed for the years in odd and even solar cycles separately. It is found that on average the odd-cycle years have lower and more variable winter temperatures than the even-cycle years. The indicated differences are statistically significant and show up in the 17th and 18th as well as in the more recent centuries. Most probably the effect is caused by an observed slight difference in the preferred location (Iceland or Scandinavia) of North Atlantic pressure systems in alternate solar cycles.     

Central antarctic climate response to the solar cycle

Antarctic “Vostok” station works most closely to the center of the ice cap among permanent year-around stations. Climate conditions are exclusively stable: low precipitation level, cloudiness and wind velocity. These conditions can be considered as an ideal model laboratory to study the surface temperature response on solar irradiance variability during 11-year cycle of solar activity. Here we solve an inverse heat conductivity problem: calculate the boundary heat flux density (HFD) from known evolution of temperature. Using meteorological temperature record during (1958–2011) we calculated the HFD variation about 0.2–0.3 W/m² in phase with solar activity cycle. This HFD variation is derived from 0.5 to 1 °C temperature variation and shows relatively high climate sensitivity per 0.1 % of solar radiation change. This effect can be due to the polar amplification phenomenon, which predicts a similar response 0.3–0.8 °C/0.1 % (Gal-Chen and Schneider in Tellus 28:108–121, 1975). The solar forcing (TSI) is disturbed by volcanic forcing (VF), so that their linear combination TSI + 0.5VF empirically provides higher correlation with HFD (r = 0.63 ± 0.22) than TSI (r = 0.50 ± 0.24) and VF (r = 0.41 ± 0.25) separately. TSI shows higher wavelet coherence and phase agreement with HFD than VF.     

A 10-year study of background surface ozone concentrations on the island of Gozo in the Central Mediterranean

A 10-year study of surface ozone mixing ratios in the Central Mediterranean was conducted based on continuous ozone measurements from 1997 to 2006 by a background regional Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) station on the island of Gozo. The mean annual maximum mixing ratio is of the order of 66 ppbv in April–May with a broad secondary maximum of 64 ppbv in July–September. No long-term increase or decrease in the background level of surface ozone could be observed over the last 10 years. This is contrary to observations made in the Eastern Mediterranean, where a slow decrease in the background ozone mixing ratio was observed over the past 7 years. Despite the very high average annual ozone mixing ratio exceeding 50 ppbv—in fact, the highest average background ozone mixing ratio ever measured in Europe—, the diurnal O _{3 max}/O _{3 min} index of <1.40 indicates that the island of Gozo is a good site for measuring background surface ozone. However, frequent photosmog events from June to September during the past 10 years with ozone mixing ratios exceeding 90 ppbv indicate that the Central Mediterranean is prone to long-range transport of air pollutants from Europe by northerly winds. This was particularly evident during the so-called “August heatwave” of the year 2003 when the overall ozone mixing ratio was 4.6 ppbv higher than the average of all other 9 months of August since 1997. Air mass back-trajectory analysis of the August 2003 photosmog episodes on Gozo confirmed that ozone pollution originated from the European continent. Regression analysis was used to analyse the 10-year data set in order to model the behaviour of the ozone mixing ratio in terms of the meteorological parameters of wind speed, relative humidity, global radiation, temperature, month of year, wind sector, atmospheric pressure, and time of day (predictors). Most of these predictors were found to significantly affect the ozone mixing ratios. From March to November, the monthly average of the AOT40 threshold value for the protection of crops and vegetation against ozone was constantly exceeded on Gozo during the past 10 years.     

The annual cycle of peroxides and ozone in marine air at Cape Grim, Tasmania

The concentration of gas-phase peroxides has been measured almost continuously at the Cape Grim baseline station (41° S) over a period of 393 days (7702 h of on-line measurements) between February 1991 and March 1992. In unpolluted marine air a distinct seasonal cycle in concentration was evident, from a monthly mean value of>1.4 ppbv in summer (December) to <0.2 ppbv in winter (July). In the summer months a distinct diurnal cycle in peroxides was also observed in clean marine air, with a daytime build-up in concentration and decay overnight. Both the seasonal and diurnal cycles of peroxides concentration were anticorrelated with ozone concentration, and were largely explicable using a simple photochemical box model of the marine boundary layer in which the central processes were daytime photolytic destruction of ozone, transfer of reactive oxygen into the peroxides under the low-NO_x ambient conditions that favour self-reaction between peroxy radicals, and continuous heterogeneous removal of peroxides at the ocean surface. Additional factors affecting peroxides concentrations at intermediate timescales (days to a week) were a dependence on air mass origin, with air masses arriving at Cape Grim from higher latitudes having lower peroxides concentrations, a dependence on local wind speed, with higher peroxides concentrations at lower wind speeds, and a systematic decrease in peroxides concentration during periods of rainfall. Possible physical mechanisms for these synoptic scale dependencies are discussed.     

Numerical stochastic simulation of the solar cycle and quasi-biennial oscillation of wind speed in the equatorial stratosphere

A problem of simulation of a stationary random process (SRP) is studied. A computer program is developed for modeling SRP, should the parameters required be estimated beforehand. The programming methods used are well known, but the numerical scheme of modeling the SRP needs some explanations; therefore, it is considered in detail in the article, being its basic subject for consideration, although basic characteristic features of the program are also considered. Examples show how the program is used to simulate the solar cycle and the quasi-biennial oscillation of the solar wind in the equatorial stratosphere (QBO). A distinguishing feature of this work, compared with the previous one, is also simulation of the solar cycle taking into account the variability of the sunspot dispersion. The SRP parameters are estimated for the QBO. It is found that the annual mean wind speed variation behavior is similar to the SRP.     

Anomalous pattern of ocean heat content during different phases of the solar cycle in the tropical Pacific

具有准11年周期的太阳辐射是地球气候系统的主要能量来源。作为一个准周期强迫,太阳辐射周期变化的位相对热带太平洋海洋热状态的影响值得关注。本文中,作者分析了在太阳总辐射不同位相下,热带太平洋海洋热含量的异常特征。结果表明在太阳活动的上升位相和下降位相,海洋热含量异常的空间型几乎是对称的,而异常值则是相反的。进一步分析表明,在热带太平洋的某些区域,在海洋表面温度,海洋热含量和表面风场中均存在显著的准11年太阳信号。海洋温度异常的最大值中心位于主温跃层以上的次表层。不同太阳位相之间热含量异常的转变与表面纬向风异常以及热带太平洋地区的洋流密切相关。     

The seasonal cycle of mixed layer temperatures in a global ocean general circulation model

We examine mixed layer temperatures in a global ocean general circulation model subjected to seasonally varying climatological forcing. Harmonic analysis of monthly mixed layer temperatures and climatological sea surface temperatures (SSTs) shows that, on the average, the annual harmonic accounts for 90% of the total seasonal variance in both fields, while the semiannual harmonic accounts for about 8%. The semiannual signal is mostly confined to equatorial and high-latitude regions. The model mixed layer temperatures underestimate the mean amplitude of the annual harmonic in middle latitudes (65°||10°) by about 26%, while lagging climatological SSTs by 22 days, on average. In several parameter sensitivity experiments, these differences could be reduced to as little as 12% and 12.5 days, respectively, though most of this gain occurred when the mixed layer was unrealistically shallow (mean depth less than 65 m). At least part of the differences in amplitudes and phases of the annual harmonic is linked to the uncoupled formulation of the surface heat flux, which is computed using specified and seasonally varying climatological air temperatures. In ice-free areas, seasonal amplitudes and phases of air temperatures are almost identical to those of climatological SSTs. Thus, differences between model mixed layer temperatures and climatological SSTs give rise to Newtonian relaxation to SSTs, which then leads to amplitude damping and time lags in mixed layer temperatures relative to the SSTs.     

Solar eclipse-induced variations in solar flux, j(NO2) and surface ozone at Kannur, India

Surface ozone is mainly produced by the photodissociation of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) by solar UV radiation. Subsequently, solar eclipses provide one of the unique occasions to explore the variations in the photolysis rate of NO₂ and their significant impact on the production of ozone at a location. This study aims to examine the diurnal variations in the photodissociation rate coefficient of NO₂, (j(NO₂*)), and mixing ratios of surface ozone and NO _X * (NO?+?NO₂*) during the solar eclipse that occurred on 15 January 2010 at Kannur (11.9°N, 75.4°E, 5?m amsl), a tropical coastal site on the Arabian Sea in South India. This investigation was carried out on the basis of the ground level observations of surface ozone and its prominent precursor NO₂*. The j(NO₂*) values were estimated from the observed solar UV-A flux data. A sharp decline in j(NO₂*) and surface ozone was observed during the eclipse phase because of the decreased efficiency of the ozone formation from NO₂. The NO₂* levels were found to increase during this episode, whereas the NO levels remained unchanged. The surface ozone concentration was reduced by 57.5%, whereas, on the other hand, that of NO _X * increased by 62.5% during the solar eclipse. Subsequently a reduction of *% in the magnitude of j(NO₂*) was found here during the maximum obscuration. Reductions in solar insolation, air temperature and wind speed were also observed during the solar eclipse event. The relative humidity showed a 6.4% decrease during the eclipse phase, which was a unique observation at this site.     

Reconstruction of seasonal temperatures in Central Canada since A.D. 1700 and detection of the 18.6- and 22-year signals

This paper presents an attempt to summarize various sparse proxy series into continuous and exhaustive climatic data. Freeze-up and break-up dates, early meteorological records and tree-ring data have been combined for the Hudson Bay region and 22 continuous proxy series extending from 1700 to 1979 have been deduced. These new series in term provided the basis for a regressive reconstruction of six seasonal temperature series. Verification tests are successful mainly for the high frequencies components. The low frequencies variability is better estimated by a best analogues method. Both kinds of reconstructions have been combined to improve the results. The main characteristic of the reconstructions is a warming trend beginning at the end of the 19th century. Evidence for a beat wave resulting from 22-year solar and 18.6-year lunar nodal tidal cycles is presented. A phase analysis showed results consistent with other studies of summer temperature variability: temperature maxima correspond to sunspot minima ending an even cycle and are emphasized by the lunar maxima. Different phenomena are pointed out for autumn and winter temperatures: their maxima coincide to sunspot even maxima amplified by lunar minima. In spring, the transition season, these signals are not apparent.     

Chemical effect of carbonaceous aerosols on the diurnal cycle of MBL ozone at a tropical site: measurements and simulations

During late austral summer and winter 1998, black carbon (BC) aerosols were monitored with an Aethalometer at 2 sites of La Réunion Island (Indian Ocean): Saint‐Denis, the main city and Sainte‐Rose, a quite uninhabited region situated at the east coast. BC concentration data at Saint‐Denis show a marked diurnal cycle, which may be primarily attributed to traffic. The background data found at night‐time display average BC concentrations, ranging from about 80 to 250 ng/m³ whereas during the day, BC concentrations increase by a factor of at least 4. In comparison, BC concentrations vary in the range of 10 to 60 ng/m³ at Sainte‐Rose. Ozone concentration was also measured at Saint‐Denis using a Dasibi photometer and found to be at significant levels (means: 16.5–23 ppbv in April and 28.5–34 ppbv in September). A noticeable increase of ozone concentrations during the day points out the build‐up of pollutants enhancing photochemical transformations. However, during traffic pollution peaks, ozone concentration displays systematic depletion. The comparison of ozone and BC measurements at both seasons points to some possible effects of heterogeneous interaction of ozone and its precursors with BC particles. These interactions were also simulated with a 0D time‐dependent chemistry model using conditions of a polluted site. The measured ozone concentration characteristics (mean concentration and range of variation) are well simulated in the presence of BC. Our model results show that at La Réunion Island adsorption of ozone and its precursors onto BC aerosol particles could be one of the important steps determining ozone concentration characteristics, especially in absence of photochemistry during night‐time.     

Responses of the tropospheric ozone and odd hydrogen radicals to column ozone change

The response of tropospheric ozone to a change in solar UV penetration due to perturbation on column ozone depends critically on the tropospheric NO _x (NO+NO₂) concentration. At high NO _x or a polluted area where there is net ozone production, a decrease in column ozone will increase the solar UV penetration to the troposphere and thus increase the tropospheric ozone concentration. However, the opposite will occur, for example, at a remote oceanic area where NO _x is so low that there is net ozone destruction. This finding may have important implication on the interpretation of the long term trend of tropospheric ozone. A change in column ozone will also induce change in tropospheric OH, HO₂, and H₂O₂ concentrations which are major oxidants in the troposphere. Thus, the oxidation capacity and, in turn, the abundances of many reduced gases will be perturbed. Our model calculations show that the change in OH, HO₂, and H₂O₂ concentrations are essentially independent of the NO _x concentration.     

The 60-year solar modulation of global air temperature: the Earth’s rotation and atmospheric circulation connection

Summary Spectral analysis of geomagnetic activity, global air temperature, Earth’s rotation rate and zonal circulation, when smoothed from secular trend and periods shorter than 23 years, shows a concentration of energy around the 60-year period explaining more than 80% of the entire variance. This information has enabled the set-up of a cascade physical model that integrates the Sun-atmosphere-Earth system as a single unit and ties solar corpuscular radiation to global warming through Earth’s rotation and atmospheric circulation. Our results suggest that changes in geomagnetic activity, and in the Earth’s rotation, could be used as long- and short-term indicators, respectively, of future changes in global air temperature.     

Effects of solar radiation modification on the ocean carbon cycle: An earth system modeling study

Solar radiation modification (SRM, also termed as geoengineering) has been proposed as a potential option to counteract anthropogenic warming. The underlying idea of SRM is to reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the atmosphere and surface, thus offsetting some amount of global warming. Here, the authors use an Earth system model to investigate the impact of SRM on the global carbon cycle and ocean biogeochemistry. The authors simulate the temporal evolution of global climate and the carbon cycle from the pre-industrial period to the end of this century under three scenarios: the RCP4.5 CO₂ emission pathway, the RCP8.5 CO₂ emission pathway, and the RCP8.5 CO₂ emission pathway with the implementation of SRM to maintain the global mean surface temperature at the level of RCP4.5. The simulations show that SRM, by altering global climate, also affects the global carbon cycle. Compared to the RCP8.5 simulation without SRM, by the year 2100, SRM reduces atmospheric CO₂ by 65 ppm mainly as a result of increased CO₂ uptake by the terrestrial biosphere. However, SRM-induced change in atmospheric CO₂ and climate has a small effect in mitigating ocean acidification. By the year 2100, relative to RCP8.5, SRM causes a decrease in surface ocean hydrogen ion concentration ([H⁺]) by 6% and attenuates the seasonal amplitude of [H⁺] by about 10%. The simulations also show that SRM has a small effect on globally integrated ocean net primary productivity relative to the high-CO₂ simulation without SRM. This study contributes to a comprehensive assessment of the effects of SRM on both the physical climate and the global carbon cycle.摘要太阳辐射干预地球工程是应对气候变化的备用应急措施. 其基本思路是通过减少到达大气和地表的太阳辐射, 从一定程度上抵消温室效应引起的全球变暖. 本研究使用地球系统模式模拟理想化太阳辐射干预方法对海洋碳循环的影响. 模拟试验中, 通过直接减少太阳辐射将RCP8.5 CO₂排放情景下的全球平均温度降低到RCP4.5情景下的温度. 模拟结果表明, 到2100年, 相对于RCP8.5情景, 减少太阳辐射通过增加陆地碳汇, 使大气CO₂浓度降低了65 ppm. 减少太阳辐射对海洋酸化影响很小. 到 2100 年, 相对于RCP8.5情景, 减少太阳辐射使海表平均氢离子浓度减少6%, pH上升0.03, 同时使海表平均氢离子浓度的季节变化振幅衰减约10%. 模拟结果还表明, 减少太阳辐射对全球海洋净初级生产力的影响较小. 本研究有助于深化我们对太阳辐射干预地球工程的气候和碳循环效应的认知和综合评估.     

Observations of the 18.6-year cycle of air pressure and a theoretical model to explain certain aspects of this signal

Evidence from barometric data in Japan, USSR, southern Europe, southern Africa, and South America shows that air pressure variations with period near 18.6-years can attain amplitudes as high as 0.9 mb, and are identified as induced by the luni-solar constituent tide M _n (M for moon and n for nodal). Luni-solar waveforms commonly exhibit modulation effects due to the superposition of a longer period component with 180° changes in phase. Thus, the waveform amplitudes can be highly nonstationary. Pressure gradients at this period over subcontinental distances show that the amplitudes imply nonequilibrium conditions. A theoretical coupling mechanism between E-W and N-S wind systems and the Coriolis force is envoked to explain the sub-continental extent and the, sometimes abrupt, amplitude changes of the pressure systems over small distances.